Slideshow from workshop "The Recession Ended: Where are the jobs?" presented during the annual RochesterWorks! Career Conference on January 1, 2015. See the video of the presentation at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BZnLIg09LK0.

1. The Recession Ended
But Where Are the Jobs?
Lee Koslow
January 14, 2015

2. The recession ended, but where are
the jobs?
What we will cover today:

3. Trend #1: Economic growth recovered quickly,
but unemployment is easing very slowly
GDP back to pre-recession levels by
2011
Will unemployment ever return to its
pre-recession level?
90
95
100
105
110
115
Mar-07
Feb-08
Jan-09
Dec-09
Nov-10
Oct-11
Sep-12
Aug-13
Jul-14
GDP
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
Mar-07
Feb-08
Jan-09
Dec-09
Nov-10
Oct-11
Sep-12
Aug-13
Jul-14
US Unemployment Rate
Source: bea.gov

4. Trend #2: Unemployment numbers may be
improving, but in Rochester the number of
people with jobs is not yet on the rise.
Year
Rochester Metro
Area Unemployment
Rate
2007 4.6%
2010 8.2%
2014 (Jan–Nov) 6.0%
Year
Employment (this
no. should  when
the unemployment
rate decreases)
2007 504,795
2010 484,236
2014 (Jan–Nov) 481,657

5. Trend #3: The Rochester area labor force is aging
and shrinking
90000
95000
100000
105000
110000
115000
2008 2013
Population, 65+,
Monroe County
460000
462000
464000
466000
468000
470000
472000
474000
476000
2008 2013
Population, 18-64,
Monroe County
364000
366000
368000
370000
372000
374000
376000
378000
2008 2013
Labor Force,
Monroe County
>11,000 reached
retirement age.
Approx. 8,800 reached
adulthood.
The labor force
shrunk by >8,000
Source: census.gov Source: census.gov 

6. Trend #4: The number of discouraged workers—
those who are not in the labor force because
they believe no job is available—remains high
Year Discouraged Workers, US
2007 369,000
2010 1,173,000
2013 861,000
2014 739,000

7. Opportunity #1: Experienced workers,
employers need you in the workforce

8. Opportunity #2: Millennials, employers want
you in the workforce too

9. Trend #5: The number of people out of work for
more than 6 months remains stubbornly high
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Long-Term Unemployed, US (1000s)

10. Trend #6: Large numbers of the “employed” are
actually underemployed, working part-time jobs
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Part-Timers Who Want Full-Time Work, US (1000s)

11. Opportunity #3: If you have been unemployed
or underemployed for more than 6 months, you
may qualify for the Finger Lakes Hired Initiative
For those who want to work in
one of the following industries:
• Advanced Manufacturing
• Computer/Information
Technology
• Healthcare
Contact Annette DiPalma at
585-420-3204 or
adipalma@rochesterworks.org


12. Trend #7: During the recovery some industries
have fared better than others
Industries that have added the most
jobs, Rochester Metro, 2007–2013
Industry Sector Job Change
Education and
Health Services
+9,955
Professional and
Business Services
+4,371
Leisure and
Hospitality
+4,311
Industries that have lost the most jobs,
Rochester Metro, 2007-2013
Industry Sector Job Change
Manufacturing -14,078
Trade,
Transportation, and
Utilities
-3,571
Information -1,876

13. Trend #8: Some occupations are projected to
grow faster than others
Top 5 job families for total ave. annual
openings, Finger Lakes Region, 2010–2020
Job Family % Change Openings
Office & Admin.
Support
+3.3% 2,520
Sales and
Related
+5.9% 2,240
Food Prep &
Serving Related
+12.0% 2,150
Education,
Training, &
Library
+8.3% 1,690
Healthcare
Practitioners &
Technical
+13.0% 1,170
Bottom 5 job families for total ave. annual
openings, Finger Lakes Region, 2010–2020
Job Family % Change Openings
Legal
Occupations
+7.9% 130
Farming,
Fishing &
Forestry
-0.2% 180
Life, Physical, &
Social Science
+10.4% 190
Architecture &
Engineering
+2.2% 330
Protective
Service
+4.1% 420

14. Trend #9: Many job openings are going unfilled,
in part due to a skills gap
“Eighty percent of the economic growth we saw in the most recent economic recovery
went to only 2 percent of the U.S. population. Economists believe that today skills and
talent, not experience or tenure, drive earnings power and financial success.”
–Josh Bersin, Deloitte Consulting LLP

15. Opportunity #4: Take some time (and get some
help) to find your place in the labor market
Different Occupation,
Same Industry
Same Occupation,
Same Industry
Different Occupation,
Different Industry
Same Occupation,
Different Industry
Higher Pay
HigherPay


16. Trend #10: Thanks to advances in technology,
most job seekers now have the ability to build
their skills at little to no cost
• Professional Associations
• Social Learning
• MOOCs
• Community Education

17. Opportunity #5: Build your skills in your current
occupation

18. Opportunity #6: Become a freelancer
“Free agents are people who are working untethered
from a large organization. This includes freelancers, e-
lancers, self-employed professionals and proprietors
of very small businesses. These are not necessarily
entrepreneurs … they're not necessarily startups that
aspire to go big. They're people who have either been
cast aside by larger organizations or have broken
away from large organizations to make their own
way.”
–Daniel Pink, Author of Free Agent Nation,
http://www.workforce.com/articles/dan-pink-interview-free-
agent-nation-evolves

19. Thanks for joining us!
Lee Koslow
RochesterWorks!
Lkoslow@rochesterworks.org
www.linkedin.com/in/leekoslow
www.rochesterworks.org
Data from the tables and charts in this presentation were obtained
from bls.gov unless otherwise noted.