1. Global Renewable Energy Policy Perspectives
Key Facts and Figures from the REN21 Renewables Global Status Report 2012
and the Global Futures Report 2013
Parliamentary Hearing: 100% RE in European Regions
6 October 2012, Thy, Denmark
Lily Riahi
Policy Advisor
www.ren21.net
2. About REN21
Multi-stakeholder Policy Network grouping:
National governments:
Brazil, Germany, Denmark, UK, Spain, Norway, India, UAE, US, Uganda, Morocc
o, etc.
International organisations: EC, IEA, IRENA, UNEP, UNIDO, UNDP, ADB, GEF, etc
Industry associations: RENAlliance
(WWEA, WBA, IGA, ISES, IHA), ARE, GWEC, EREC, etc
Science & Academia: SANEDI, IIASA, TERI, etc.
NGOs: WWF, Greenpeace, ICLEI, CURES, WRI, etc.
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Objective: enable a rapid global transition to RE through:
objective policy guidance
high quality information
exchange among relevant actors
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3. REN21 Renewables Global Status Report
Launched on June 11, 2012 along with UNEP’s Global trends in RE investment
Team of over 400 Contributors, researchers & reviewers worldwide
Lead author (Janet Sawin) & Chapter authors
Regional Contributors , Technology contributors & Rural energy contributors
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REN21 Secretariat research support team
The report features:
Global Market Overview, Investment Flows, Industry Trends,
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Policy Landscape, Rural Renewable Energy
All renewable energy technologies
Sectors: power, heating/cooling, transport
New elements in 2012:
Rural renewable energy
www.ren21.net/GSR
Renewable energy & energy efficiency
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4. Renewable Energy in the World
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Click to 17% of global final energy consumption
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RE supplied an estimated
UN Secretary General’s goal : doubling the share of renewable energy in the
global energy mix by 2030
Renewable energy continued to grow strongly despite policy uncertainty in
some countries, the geography of renewables is expanding as prices fall and
policies spread
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5. Top 5 in 2012
Germany continues to lead
in Europe and to be in the
forefront
globally, remaining among
the top users of many
renewable technologies for
power, heating, and
transport.
China ended 2011 with
more renewable power
capacity than any other
country, with an estimated
282 GW; one-quarter of this
total (70 GW) was nonhydro.
6. Global Market Overview – Power Markets
Renewables accounted for nearly
half of the estimated 208GW of new
electric capacity installed in 2011
Renewable title style
electric
capacity
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worldwide
1,360
in 2011
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Renewable energy comprised more
than subtitle power
Master 25% of globalstyle
generation capacity
20.3% of global electricity was
produced from renewable energy
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7. Global Market Overview – Heating & Cooling
Transition towards the use
of larger
systems, increasing use of
CHP and district schemes.
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Growing trend use
resources to generate
process heat for industry.
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Solar hot water used in
over 200 million
households and
commercial buildings.
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Space Heating
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8. Global Market Overview – Transport
RE used in form of electricity, hydrogen, biogas, liquid biofuels
Liquid biofuels provided 3% of global road transport fuel in
2011
Electric transport is being tied directly with renewable energy
through policy directives in many countries
Johannesburg, South Africa introduced 25 ethanol buses into
its public transportation fleet during 2011
9. Hydropower
25GW of new hydropower was
added in 2011, increasing capacity
by nearly 3%, bringing installed
capacity to 970GW
Globally hydropower generated
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3,400TWh of electricity in 2011.
China alone produced 663TWh
followed by Brazil (450TWh)
Key role in balancing
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In late
2011, Burundi, Rwanda, and
Tanzania announced plans to build
a 90MW hydropower plant, with
financing expected from the
World Bank and AfDB
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10. Solar Power
30GW of new solar PV capacity came into
being in 2011, 80GW total
PV 58% increase in installed capacity annually
(2006-2011) , CSP 37%
460 MW of CSP installed in 2011 bringing the
total installed capacity to 1.760 MW
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EU added more PV than any other technology
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11. Wind Power
In 2011, 40GW of wind power capacity
was installed, increasing the total to
238GW.
Annual growth rate of cumulative wind
power capacity between 2006-2010
averaged at 26%
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Wind power accounted for 30% of the
total new renewable energy capacity
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12. Biomass Energy
Biomass energy accounted for
over 10% of global primary energy
supply in 2011
The present global demand for
biomass is 53EJ, mainly used for
heating, cooking and industrial
applications
Liquid biofuels production grew
rapidly at 17% for ethanol and
27% for biodiesel
Most sugar producing countries in
Africa generate power and heat
with bagasse-based combined
heat and power plants. Grid
connected CHP exists in
Kenya, Mauritius, Tanzania, Ugand
a and Zimbabwe
13. Geothermal Energy
205 TWh (736PJ) of district heat and
electricity was provided by
geothermal resources in 2011
Heat output from geothermal
sources grew at 100%p.a. from
2005-2010; reaching 489PJ in 2011
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Geothermal power became more
attractive due to flexibility offered
by new technologies such as flash
plants combined with binary
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bottoming cycles for increased
efficiency
Geothermal Power has taken hold
in East Africa’s Rift Valley. Drought
in the region has increased interest
on geothermal to reduce reliability
on hydropower
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14. Industry Trends
c
RE industry saw continued growth in
manufacturing, sales and installation
Cost reductions (especially in PV and
onshore wind) contributed to growth
Changing policy landscape in many
countries industry
uncertainties, declining policy
support, international financial crisis
and barriers to trade
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Worldwide jobs in renewable energy
industries exceeded 5 million in 2011;
clustered primarily in bioenergy and
solar industries
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Green power markets are emerging in
South Africa, with at least one
company providing green power to
retail customers in South Africa
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15. Investment Flows
Total global investment in RE jumped
in 2011to a record of $257 billion , up
17% from 2010 (15 % for Asia
Oceania region).
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in 2004 and 94% more than the total
investment in RE in 2007.
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Despite the rise in investment, the
Master of growth of investment was
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below the 37% rise in investment
from 2009 to 2010.
Source: UNEP/Bloomberg: Global Trends in Renewable Energy
Investment 2011
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Total investment in the RE sector in
the Middle East and Africa combined
was USD 4.9 Billion.
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16. Investment Flows
The top 5 countries for total investment
in 2011 were China, USA, Germany, Italy
and India.
Investment in RE in China went up by
17% in 2011
Investment in RE in USA made a
significant leap of 57% in 2011.
Investment in Germany (excluding R&D)
dipped 12% from the 2010 levels
Investment in RE in India went up by
62% in 2011
17. Policy Landscape
Targets in at least 118
countries up from the 96
reported in previous year;
more than half are
developing countries
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Some setbacks resulting
from a lack of long-term
policy certainty and
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stability in many
South Africa introduced a
new 20 year plan calling for
renewables to account for
42% of all new capacity
installed up to 2030
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18. Policy Landscape
Renewable power generation policies remain
the most common type of support policy;
Feed-in-tariffs (FIT) and renewable portfolio
standards (RPS) are the most commonly
instruments. FIT policies were in place in at
least 65 countries and 27 states worldwide
by early 2012.
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Policies to promote renewable heating and
cooling expanded.
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Almost two-thirds of the world’s largest
cities had adopted climate change action
plans by the end of 2011, with more than
half of them planning to increase their
uptake of renewable energy.
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19. Energy Access
UN Secretary General’s goal: Global action to achieve universal access to
modern energy services by 2030
In order to achieve universal access for all, the current global investments on
energy access of annual 9 billion USD need to be increased to 48 billion USD
annually
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2.6 billion people still employed traditional cookstoves and open fires for
heating and cooking in 2011
Large numbers of actors and programmes, with limited coordination, makes
impact assessment and data collection in the region a big challenge
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diversify into emerging markets
Financial models in rural energy include:
• Small retail markets
• Public-Private micro financing initiatives
• National/multi stakeholder programmes
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20. Tool to facilitate dialogue on the future of renewable energy
Aims at providing a simple overview on how the future of RE is currently
seen by prominent experts, governments, and institutions
Based on more than 150 interviews conducted around the world
Emphasis on role of local governments and visions for cities of the
future
First review draft available upon request
REN21 Urban Energy Futures
REN21 Global Futures Report (GFR)
21. Green city Dynamics …
By 2011
62% of the world’s largest cities had adopted climate change actions
57% had plans for GHG reductions with an emphasis on renewable energy
Examples of renewable energy targets by cities:
Vaxjo, Sweden aims to be 100% renewable energy driven by 2030
City of Austin, USA met its target for 100% of own use electricity from renewables, and
target of 30% RE by 2020
Hamburg, Germany plans to reduce 80% of their CO2 emissions by 2050 (base 1990)
Cape Town, South Africa to produce 10% of its primary energy supply from renewable
energy sources by 2020
Seoul, South Korea has a renewable energy supply target of 20% by 2030
REN21 Urban Energy Futures
Green Momentum: Thousands of cities have active policies, plans, or targets
for RE and climate mitigation
22. i)
Using Municipal Utilities
Transforming production infrastructure to integrate greater share of
renewable energy in the electric supply in Munich, Copenhagen, Vaxjo, etc
where the city owns the energy utility.
ii) Re-Municipalisation of Energy Utilities and The Grid
Modelled after the “Sustainable Energy Initiative” of Delaware, the city of
Philadelphia has created a sustainable energy authority that will invest in
RE . New York and Vermont are also going for the same approach.
Hamburg and Boulder are re-municipalising their utility. Hamburg for
instance has set up Hamburg Energie that will invest in RE.
iii) Renegotiating Contracts with Energy Utilities
Ithaca, New York has switched to 100 % RE electricity
Austin, Texas are powering their municipal facilities with 100% renewable.
REN21 Urban Energy Futures
Switching to Renewable Energy
23. Buildings currently account for 40% of the world energy consumption
Buildings around the world are considerably being transformed with the emergence
of ‘passive buildings ’, ‘zero-energy buildings’, ‘net-zero buildings’, ‘carbon-neutral
buildings’ and ‘living buildings’
All city buildings in Austin are to
be carbon neutral by 2020
Oregon Sustainable
Center in Portland
All new developments in
Amsterdam to be energy neutral
from 2015 onwards.
REN21 Urban Energy Futures
Buildings- Consumers to Prosumers
24. Currently 85 % of energy used in urban transport comes from fossil fuels
Rebuilding the urban transportion system that are driven by renewables is the goal of
many cities around the world.
Hong Kong, Mexico City and Sydney are investing extensively in the electrification of their railway systems
Conversion of Rail bound transport to 100% RE e.g Hamburg (by 2050) and Calgary
Sao Paulo introduced 60 ethanol buses in 2011. 1200 buses are now using a B20 blend in the city of Sao
Paulo. Johannesburg also introduced 25 ethanol buses in 2011
Mexico city is currently building solar powered charging stations in order to to put 100 EV’s on the road by
the end of 2012
Austin, Texas is currently supplying 50 charging stations in the city with renewable electricity
REN21 Urban Energy Futures
Transportation- Electric Mobility
25. As buildings are being transformed, cities and local governments will be looking to
use more renewables for their heating and cooling purposes
District heating system will be key to an effective and green heating system using
biomass, geothermal or solar thermal collectors.
Vaxjo, Sweden fulfills 90% of its heating demand from biomass
Amsterdam district heating system uses biomass of biogas
98% of the homes in Copenhagen are connected to the district system
fired by biomass
Munich and Seoul are investing in geothermal; Munich plans to meet
80% of its heating needs via geothermal sources
REN21 Urban Energy Futures
Heating and Cooling- the Sleeping Giant
26. The concept of smart cities is to make intensive use of ICT to enhance energy
efficiency, maximise the integration and use of renewables in buildings and in local
electricity grid and ensure the smooth roll out of EV`s. It enables intelligent energy
management and creates a system of:
Smart Grids
Smart Buildings
Smart Transport
Currently there are 102 smart city project in the world including
Amsterdam, Seoul, Boulder, Colorado, Johannesburg, Lagos and Delhi.
REN21 Urban Energy Futures
Smart Cities
28. REN21 facilitates global dialogue on
RE transition
Stay informed, Stay connected
Contribute & Exchange…
15-17 January 2013
incl. Launch of
REN21 Global Futures Report
www.ren21.net
secretariat@ren21.net
29. Thank – You!
Further Information:
REN21 Global Futures Report
Lily Riahi
Policy Advisor
lily.riahi@ren21.net
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www.ren21.net/gsr
www.map.ren21.net
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Notas del editor
REN21 was conceived in Bonn Germany at the Renewables2004 conference. The Political Declaration that came out of theRenewables 2004 conference called for a “global policy network” to “promote a comprehensive global exchange oflessons, and experiences in development and application of renewables” and to thereby facilitate a rapid global transition to renewables.To promote RE policies by providing objective policy guidance, high quality information, and a platform for exchange among relevant actorsMulti-stakeholder group: informal network; anyone can participate. This is very much reflected in the products and activities of REN21, incl. GSR.REN21 has a Steering Committee of about 40 experts and individuals that represent the various stakeholder groups, including governments, NGOs and relevant industry associations.The Bureau makes decisions between meetings of the Steering Committee.The Secretariat supports research and production of REN21 products and coordinates outreach.
The GSR first published 2005 (produced every year since except for one)holds a mirror to the current global RE situation and the key trends. In provide NO analysis, potentials or forecasting – but actual developments and trends.In this way, the aim is to contribute to understanding of current situation of RE, especially as the RE landscape changes so quickly, where the perception of the status of RE can often lag years behind the reality.Production of report = is a collaborative effort with input from many individuals:Several authors>150 researchers and reviewers from around world, including technology and regional contributorsMajor role of REN21 support team in research and production
Our most recent GSR showed that (latest data available) RE supplied an estimated 17% of global final energy consumption. Most of this comes from traditional biomass, followed by hydropower, but the share of other renewables has increased since 2005.In 2012, while RE faced challenges related to the economic crisis, low ng prices and policy instability , RE continued to grow strongly in all end-use sectors.The United Nations General Assembly declared 2012 asthe International Year of Sustainable Energy for All. And UNSecretary-General Ban Ki-moon has supported the Yearwith his new global initiative, Sustainable Energy for All, which calls to promote action around three inter-linked and complimentary objectives to be reached by 2030: Ensure universal access to modern energy services; Double the rate of improvement in energy efficiency;Double the share of renewable energy in the global energy mix.
Despite the difficult economic times, Europeinstalled more renewable energy capacity2011 than ever before, and, for the fourth year running,renewables accounted for more than half of all newlyinstalled electric capacity in the region—more than 71% of total additionsIn 2011, renewables provided 12.2% of Germany’s final energy consumption, 20% of electricity consumption (up from 11.6% in 2006), 10.4% of heating demand (up from 6.2%),In Germany, for example, Fukushima hasled to a commitment to rapid exit from nuclear energyuse by 2022 and complete reform of the nation's energysector. The “Energiewende” (Energy Transition), whichfocuses on energy efficiency and renewable energy sources,together with massive energy infrastructure investment, is Germany’s biggest infrastructure modernization projectwith beacon-like character for many other countriesaround the world.
As in previous years, about half of thenew electricity capacity installed worldwide was renewablebased. In the power sector, capacity reached an estimated 1360 GW in 2011, up about 8% relative to 2010.RE accounted for about 25% of total global power capacity (with hydro having largest share)And 20% of electricity production. Non hydro RE was 390 GW -- a 24% capacity increase over 2010New RE capacity added in 2011about 1/2 of all new electric capacity added worldwide in 2010: Wind accounted for the largest share of new RE capacity (40), and PV (40) moved ahead of hydro (25)
The heating and cooling sector is where there is a lot ofuntapped potential for renewable energy deployment. We already seeheat from biomass, solar, and geothermal sources Becoming a big share of energy derived from renewables, and the sector is slowly evolving as countries (particularly in the European Union) are starting to enact supporting policies and to track the share of heat derived from RE (%%)Heating (and cooling) sector trends include an increase in system size, expanding use of combined heat and power (CHP), the feeding of renewable heating and cooling into district network . Most solar thermal is used for water heating, but solar space heating and cooling are gaining ground, particularly in Europe. Heating capacity increased by an estimated 27% in 2011 to reach approximately 232 GWth, excluding unglazed swimming pool heating. China again led the world for solar thermal installations, with Europe a distant second. The year 2011 was difficult for parts of the solar thermal industry due to the economic situationin northern Mediterranean countries and the general negative outlook across much of Europe. China remained dominant in the global solar heating industry, a position that it has held for several years, and export of Chinese
During 2011, ethanol production remained stable or declined slightly for the first time in more than a decade, but biodiesel production continuedto rise globally. Several airlines began to operate commercial flights using various biofuels blends, and interest in advanced biofuels continued to increase, although production levels remain relatively low. Limited but growing quantities of gaseous biofuels (mainly bio-methane) are fuelling trains,
An estimated 25 GW of new capacity came on line in 2011, increasing capacity by 3% and continues to generate more electricity than any otherrenewable resource, with an estimated 3,400 TWhAsia was the most active region for new projects, while more mature markets focused on retrofits of existing facilities for improved output and efficiency. Hydropower is increasingly providing balancing services, including through expansion of pumped storage capacity, in part to accommodate the increased use of variable solar and wind resources. South Africa is expected to have 1332MW of pumped storage facility by 2013-2014
Total global capacity increased by 74% with addition of about 30 GW.Vast majority grid-connected (versus almost all off-grid in 2005 according to GSR 2005)Solar PVgrew the fastest during the period from end-2006 through 2011, with (operating) capacity increasing by an average of 58% annually, followed by concentrating solar thermal power (CSP), which increased almost 37% annually over this period from a small base (1760 Mw global capacity)Spain accounted for the vast majority of capacity additions, while several developing countries launched their first CSP plants. Parabolic trough plants continued to dominatethe market, but new central receiver and Fresnel plants were commissioned during 2011 and others were under construction. Although CSP faced challenges associated with rapidly falling PV prices and the Arab Spring, which slowed development in the Middle East and North Africa region, significant capacity was under construction by year’s endFor the 1st time, EU added more PV than any other technology (led by italy and germany). While Europe (followed by Japan and US) continues to lead the market, manufacture of PV cells continued shift to Asia, which is home to 10 of the top 15 producers (and most of these in China). The trend towards very large-scale ground-mounted systems continued,while rooftop and small-scale systems continued to play an important role. Although 2011 was a good year for consumers and installers, manufacturers struggled to make profits or even survive amidst excess inventory and falling prices, declining government support, slower market growth for much of the year, and significant industry consolidation. Cost reductions continued with module prices falling a further 14% in 2010 (after a reported drop of as much as 38% in 2009)
More wind power capacity was added in 2011 than any other RET (including hydro) (20% increase - )40GW installed for global total approaching 238 GW.As in 2010, more new capacity was added in developing countries and emerging markets than in OECD countries. China accounted for just under half of the world market 44% of theglobal market (adding 17.6 GW in 2011 /slightly less capacity than it did in2010/19GW) compares with 4% in 2005. Followed by the United States and India; Germany remained the largest market in Europe Although its market share remained relatively small, the offshore wind sector continued to expand, with the use of larger turbines and movement into deeper water, farther from shore. The trend towards increasing the size of individual wind projects and larger wind turbines continued; at the same time, the use of small-scale turbines is increasing, and interest in community wind power.
Data gathering is challenging due to diverse feedstock, conversion systems (type and scale)…Modern biomass use for heating in 2008 (most recent global data) was ~ 11,600 PJ, and estimated power capacity came to about 62 GW at end-2010.Markets expanding steadily in EU, China (power capacity +25% in 2010 to 4 GW), and in India.Notable trends include: significant growth in production and use of pellets for heat and power (exports from US and Canada to Europe doubled between 2008 and 2010); increase in use of biomethane (purified biogas) in Europe - injected into natural gas grid and used mainly in gas-fired CHP plants. Germany which didn’t begin development until 2006 is now leader. Increase in use of small-scale biogas plants, especially in India and China - an estimated 50 million Chinese households use biogas for cooking. Large companies, including utilities, are investing in biomass plantations across Africa
Geothermal energy provided an estimated 205 TWh (736 PJ) in 2011 1/3rd electricity –and 2/3rd heat At least 78 countries used direct geothermal energy.Most of the growth in direct use was associated with ground-source heat pumps (GHP), which can provide heating and cooling and have experiencedgrowth rates averaging 20% annually. Geothermal electricity saw only modest expansion in 2011, but the rate of deployment is expected to accelerate with projectsunder development in traditional markets and the move into east africa and elsewhere
Due to growing markets for RE, most industries experienced continued growth in manufacturing of equipment, as well as in sales and installations.Cost reductions contributed to growth in a number of sectors,(especially PV, but also wind turbines and biofuel processing technologies).At the same time, changing policy landscapes in some countries led to uncertainty for manufacturers and investors who were concerned about when and how policies might change and, in some cases, the potential for retroactive revisions. (e.g., reduction in FITs for solar PV, particularly changes in Spain.)Trends seen in 2010 include:Increasing internationalization of industries (as RET produced and installed in more countries); so they are no longer in a handful of co. the diversity helps boost confidence that RE is less susceptible to policy and market dislocations in any one country. As policies spread so does the geography of RE use is also changingConsolidation – most notably in the biomass and biofuel sectors – as traditional energy companies continued to move into RE;Development of vertically integrated supply chains; andExpansion by manufacturers into project development.On the jobs front, it’s estimated that jobs in RE industries exceeded 5 million globally in 2010, including jobs in manufacturing as well as installations, operations, maintenance, as well as biofuels feedstocks.
As capacity and production have increased, total global investment in RE has risen several fold since 2004 (6 fold) – to record $257 billion in 2011 (all BNEF data) up 17% from 2010. Including hydropower projects of over 50 megawatts, net investment in RE power capacity exceeded estimated netinvestment in fossil fuel power capacity in 2011 USD by 40 billion. For the first time Solar blew past wind, followed by
Total investment in new capacity of RE, not including large hydro = $203 billion. This includes:Utility-scale asset finance (large wind farms, solar parks, biofuel plants) – more than 1/2 of total;DG (mostly rooftop solar PV);hot water/heating capacity.Of these, wind accounted for the largest share of investment, followed by PV.
South Africa replaced its FiT system with a competitive bidding system in 2011The municipality of Ekurhuleni, SA launched a solar hot water systems for low cost homes programme in 2011
decentralised off-grid renewable electricity is less expensive than extending the power grid. At the same time, developing countries have begun deploying more and more grid-connected renewable capacity, which is in turn expanding markets and further reducing prices, potentially improving the outlook
What is our current thinking about the future of renewable energy?• What is the range of credible possibilities for renewable energy futures?• Tool for education and discussion – an objective framework for thinking about the future ofrenewables, not a specific vision or position• Four primary forms of source material have been employed:o Published long‐term scenarios and roadmapso Interviews with experts from around the world, including industry leaders and visionarieso Government policy targets, including regional, national, state/provincial, municipalo Long‐term action plans by local (city) governments
Local governments made increasing use of their authority to regulate; make expenditure and procurement decisions; provide for and ease the financing of renewable energy projects; and influence advocacy and information sharing to integrate RE in their diff. sectorsIn all cases, the mayor’s support was critical for the cities to pursue renewable energy. In some cities the mayor initiated RE policies, in others he/she has been supportive.The city has to allocate dedicated resources to enable the municipal departments to integrate renewable energy into the city’s master plan. populated
-Amsterdam, for example, opened new areas for development, with project selection based on energy saving and sustainability criteria, as the city pursued efforts to ensure all new developments will be “energy neutral” from 2015 onwards.Oregon /Portland-AustinVancouver is also a front-runner in the new trend towards “living” buildings– triple net zero - waste, water and energy – structures (ILBC_? Numerous cities in the US are also piloting triple net-zero buildings. The city of Portland which has also set the goal to achieve zero net greenhouse gas emissions in all new buildings and homes by 2030, is currently constructing a seven-story 130 000 square-feet building which will meet all its energy needs through solar PV, geothermal heat and bifacial panels. Similarly, Seattle is running a pilot to develop 12 unique “living building” in its city over the next three years and to assess thereafter the adoption of the living building standard as the baseline for their city development.