Slides on "Let's Predict the Future: Predicting Needs and Risks" for a workshop session on "Predicting the Future" held on 3 June 2014 at the SAOIM 2014 conference in Pretoria, South Africa and facilitated by Brian Kelly, Cetis. See https://ukwebfocus.wordpress.com/events/saoim-2014-lets-predict-the-future-workshop/

1. B: Predictions #soaim14
Let's Predict the Future!
A half-day workshop
at the SAOIM 2014
conference held on
Tuesday 3 June
2014 facilitated by
Brian Kelly, Cetis
Slides available
under a Creative
Commons licence
(CC-BY)
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B1: Predicting The Future:
The Need and
the Risks

2. Optimism
2
Photo used with
permission.

3. #soaim14
Time of Growth 
1990s & early 2000s
saw:
• Increased funding across
education sector
• Significant developments in
IT sector
• Willingness by senior
managers & funding bodies
to invest in innovative IT
developments (e.g. JISC
development programmes)
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“Great proposal – we’ll fund it”
Image from Flickr. CC BY-NC-SA licence:
http://www.flickr.com/photos/inlinguamanchester/5036313154/

4. Stormy times
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From the Sea of Tranquility to
the Perfect Storm

5. #soaim14
Time of Growth is Over 
Late 2000s and beyond:
• Decreased funding across
education & public sector
• Acknowledgements that
innovation can provide
growth and cost savings
• Significant developments
continue in IT sector
• Investment in innovative IT
developments need to be
based on evidence of
benefits & likelihood of
success
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Image from Flickr. CC BY-NC-ND licence:
http://www.flickr.com/photos/drewleavy/339489258//
“You want how much? And no
evidence it will work! You’re crazy!”

6. #soaim14
The Future: A Quick Summary
What technological developments might
have an impact in the future?
For the impatient, here’s a summary!
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7. #soaim14
The Future: A Quick Summary
In the future:
• Data will be Big
• Content and services will be open
• Services will use open source software
• We’ll continue to see a growth in
importance of online services
• This will lead to a recognition of the value
of libraries and librarians
• We will travel to work by monorail
• We will use jetpacks on weekends
• We will go to lunar base for our summer
holidays
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8. #soaim14
The Future from the Past
The future was exciting in 1956!
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Monorail, Incorporated built a short test track
of their suspended system at Arrowhead Park
in Houston, Texas. Each bogie was powered by
a 310-horsepower Packard automobile engine.
The driver was seated high above the
passenger carriage on one of the two bogies.
After eight months of testing, the track was
dismantled and rebuilt at the Texas State
fairgrounds where it ran for many years. Its
promoters claimed it could reach speeds of
160 km but no Skyway transit installations
were ever built.

9. “Eagle has Landed”
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Awoken at 3 am on 16 June
1969 to watch lunar landing
on black and white TV.
But the future was exciting!

10. The Future from the Past
1969 was exciting!
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11. The future is exciting!
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What I Expected in the Future

12. #soaim14
The Present: Better than Predicted
Star Trek predicted mobile phones
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Nokia 8110 “stole the
show in 1998”
but not smart phones!

13. Has the Future Arrived?
Mobile phones
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14. The Future from the Past
The future is exciting! 14

15. Shush!
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Acknowledgements to Patrick
Hochstenbach (@hochstenbach)
Librarians will appropriate technological
developments to support their activities!

16. #soaim14
What Can We Conclude?
Assumptions of:
• Inevitability of technological developments
• Economic growth (we can afford them)
• Political and social environment (no legal or
environmental barriers)
There is a need to:
• Be wary of predictions which:
 Simply justify our organisation’s current
approaches (cf. music industry)
 Reflect personal beliefs
• Base predictions on evidence
• Acknowledge that evidence may challenge
organisational or personal beliefs / prejudices
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We need a more systematic way of predicting future developments

17. The Context
In the future mobiles will be smaller & faster; Data
will be Big and content and services will be open.
Lots of opportunities for librarians 
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18. #soaim14
Questions
Any questions?
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