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Disclaimer : Living in Peace, a Japan-based NPO does NOT
solicit investments or sell financial products.
Key Messages

About Living in Peace
  •Mission
  •Organization
  •History


How to minimize due diligence costs
  •Economics of predatory lending
  •Initiatives of LIP to minimize DD costs
  •Challenges
About Living in Peace
2009.11.15




一番大切なのは本人の意志




Mantra : Opportunity for everyone
Organization
 Representative Director                          Taejun Shin

 Project Manager (Microfinance)                Akiko Sugiyama

 Project Manager (Education)                   Noriko Matsuda

 Number of full-time employee                              0

 Number of directors                                       7

 Number of part-time workers                             +50

 Number of supporters                                   +800

 Email transaction / day (incl. weekend)                +100

 Range of working hours /day (incl. weekend)           0 – 20

 Main office location                                  Cloud

 Cup of coffee I had since the establishment          +5,000
History

          Launched “Microfinance Fund for
          MDGs”

          Closed collaboration agreement
          with CARD MRI

          Closed collaboration agreement
          with Music Securities

          Hosted microfinance forum
          together with World Bank
                                            Fund closed; JPY 40+
                                            million from 400+
          Established                       investors sent to MFI in
                                            Cambodia
LIP Microfinance for MDGs

     LIP                       Planning / MFI selection / Monitoring
   (Japan)


                Partnership         CARD
                                     MRI
                                 (Philippines)
   Music                                         Investment &
  Securities                                      Operational
   (Japan)                                          Support

               TK Agreement
                Intermediary

                                Investment                             Samic
  Investors
   (Japan)
                                                                       Limited
                                                                   (Cambodia)
How to Minimize DD Costs
Predatory lending under way



“Now a second line of attack has been launched, in
which for-profit microfinance firms are accused of
lending recklessly to people too poor to repay the
loans.”
                                    The Economist (UK)
                    “Froth at the bottom of the pyramid”
Increase in investments should not be accused

USD Bn




                                        Less than
                                        10% of
                                        market’s
                                        cash needs




 Source : CGAP
Investments could be skewed
Ticket to Cambodia : $ 1,000
5 days payroll : $1,000
Hotels, meals, etc : $5,000
DD trip by two analysts : + $ 5,000
How the math works in $ 100K investment
How the math works in $ 1M investment
Tend to be high-cost / high-performance

    High                 Normal Research
Performance




    Low
Performance
              Low Cost               High Cost
We seek “Alpha”

    High                 Normal Research
Performance



               LIP


     α
    Low
Performance
              Low Cost               High Cost
System spec
LIP MFI Evaluation System (LMES)

Evaluation target                              Small-to-mid size MFI

Evaluation cost                                      Less than $100

Lead-time                                                 One week

Evaluation contents                Credit risk and social performance

Evaluation methodology                Scoring based on logit analysis

Data source 1                            Information provided by MFI

Data source 2                           Answers to the questionnaire

System completion target year                                   2013

Accessibility                               High (web-base system)
Strength of part-time organization
12%

10%

 8%

 6%

 4%

 2%

 0%
      Gross Return   Ticket   Hotels etc   Payroll   Net Return
Purpose of the system
12%

10%

 8%

 6%

 4%

 2%

 0%
      Gross Return   Ticket   Hotels etc   Payroll   Net Return
Components of the research
                        •Strategy
                        •Management Capability
Management Quality      •Information Management System
                        •HR / Governance

                        •Portfolio Quality
                        •Operation Sustainability
Financial Performance   •Balance-sheet Quality
                        •Cash Flow Stability
                        •Macro-economic Performance
                        •Political Stability
Country Performance     •Quality of MFI Regulation
                        •MFI Competitive Situation
                        •Operating Area
                        •Borrower Type
Social Performance      •Contents of Service
                        •Social Responsibility
The biggest challenge – information risk
Contents of Risk    Mitigation



                    •Require several source of information that should tie out
Fraud
                    •Come up with the questions-mix to detect fraud



                    •Evaluate quality of the system given its output and then
System Capability
                    impose stress test



Input Quality       •Evaluate the quality given the several information resource
(Human-error)       and impose stress test
Two Remarks on LMES
We believe in modeling


   “The arguments often heard that because of the human
element, of the psychological factors etc., or because there
        is –allegedly- no measurement of important factors,
  mathematics will find no application, can all be dismissed
 as utterly mistaken. Almost all these objections have been
   made, or might have been made, many centuries ago in
   fields where mathematics is now the chief instrument of
                                                   analysis.”

                           Von Neumann and Morgenstern
                “Theory of Games and Economic Behavior”
2009.11.15




We welcome those who do it better
Thank you!


taejun.shin@gmail.com

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11.2010 0528 tbli_lip

  • 1. Disclaimer : Living in Peace, a Japan-based NPO does NOT solicit investments or sell financial products.
  • 2. Key Messages About Living in Peace •Mission •Organization •History How to minimize due diligence costs •Economics of predatory lending •Initiatives of LIP to minimize DD costs •Challenges
  • 5. Organization Representative Director Taejun Shin Project Manager (Microfinance) Akiko Sugiyama Project Manager (Education) Noriko Matsuda Number of full-time employee 0 Number of directors 7 Number of part-time workers +50 Number of supporters +800 Email transaction / day (incl. weekend) +100 Range of working hours /day (incl. weekend) 0 – 20 Main office location Cloud Cup of coffee I had since the establishment +5,000
  • 6. History Launched “Microfinance Fund for MDGs” Closed collaboration agreement with CARD MRI Closed collaboration agreement with Music Securities Hosted microfinance forum together with World Bank Fund closed; JPY 40+ million from 400+ Established investors sent to MFI in Cambodia
  • 7. LIP Microfinance for MDGs LIP Planning / MFI selection / Monitoring (Japan) Partnership CARD MRI (Philippines) Music Investment & Securities Operational (Japan) Support TK Agreement Intermediary Investment Samic Investors (Japan) Limited (Cambodia)
  • 8. How to Minimize DD Costs
  • 9. Predatory lending under way “Now a second line of attack has been launched, in which for-profit microfinance firms are accused of lending recklessly to people too poor to repay the loans.” The Economist (UK) “Froth at the bottom of the pyramid”
  • 10. Increase in investments should not be accused USD Bn Less than 10% of market’s cash needs Source : CGAP
  • 12. Ticket to Cambodia : $ 1,000
  • 13. 5 days payroll : $1,000
  • 14. Hotels, meals, etc : $5,000
  • 15. DD trip by two analysts : + $ 5,000
  • 16. How the math works in $ 100K investment
  • 17. How the math works in $ 1M investment
  • 18. Tend to be high-cost / high-performance High Normal Research Performance Low Performance Low Cost High Cost
  • 19. We seek “Alpha” High Normal Research Performance LIP α Low Performance Low Cost High Cost
  • 20. System spec LIP MFI Evaluation System (LMES) Evaluation target Small-to-mid size MFI Evaluation cost Less than $100 Lead-time One week Evaluation contents Credit risk and social performance Evaluation methodology Scoring based on logit analysis Data source 1 Information provided by MFI Data source 2 Answers to the questionnaire System completion target year 2013 Accessibility High (web-base system)
  • 21. Strength of part-time organization 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Gross Return Ticket Hotels etc Payroll Net Return
  • 22. Purpose of the system 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Gross Return Ticket Hotels etc Payroll Net Return
  • 23. Components of the research •Strategy •Management Capability Management Quality •Information Management System •HR / Governance •Portfolio Quality •Operation Sustainability Financial Performance •Balance-sheet Quality •Cash Flow Stability •Macro-economic Performance •Political Stability Country Performance •Quality of MFI Regulation •MFI Competitive Situation •Operating Area •Borrower Type Social Performance •Contents of Service •Social Responsibility
  • 24. The biggest challenge – information risk Contents of Risk Mitigation •Require several source of information that should tie out Fraud •Come up with the questions-mix to detect fraud •Evaluate quality of the system given its output and then System Capability impose stress test Input Quality •Evaluate the quality given the several information resource (Human-error) and impose stress test
  • 26. We believe in modeling “The arguments often heard that because of the human element, of the psychological factors etc., or because there is –allegedly- no measurement of important factors, mathematics will find no application, can all be dismissed as utterly mistaken. Almost all these objections have been made, or might have been made, many centuries ago in fields where mathematics is now the chief instrument of analysis.” Von Neumann and Morgenstern “Theory of Games and Economic Behavior”
  • 27. 2009.11.15 We welcome those who do it better