Vietnam Macro and Stock Market Q4 2015
The Biggest Winner From TPP Trade Deal May Be Vietnam, and one of the most attractive Stock markets.
BIDV securrities
BIDV Securities Company (BSC)
Established on November 26th 1999, BIDV Securities Company (BSC) is honor to become one of the first securities firms in Vietnam. Being a subsidiary of the Bank for Investment and Development of Vietnam (BIDV) – one of the largest four State owned Commercial Banks in Vietnam, BSC inherit both the 50 years of experience in investment, banking, finance and the nation-wide network of enterprises . BSC is ranked number one for bond brokerage BSC is ranked top 7 for stock brokerage
Mr Long Tran Thang proud to work for BIDV Securities Company (BSC) as Head of Research and before that as Deputy head of Investment and analyst since 2007. BIDV Securities Company (BSC) is one of the first securities firms in Vietnam. Being a subsidiary of BIDV – the largest commercial Banks in Vietnam, BSC inherit both the 55 years of experience in investment, banking, finance and the nation-wide network of enterprises.
Mr Long Tran Thang earned an MBA from Solvay Brussels School (ULB) in 2014. Mr Long graduated with BA in Economics from the ANU Australian National University (ANU) and BA in Finance from The National Economics University (NEU).
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Vietnam Macro and Stock Market Q4 2015
1. VIETNAM 4TH QUARTER UPDATEVIETNAM 4 QUARTER UPDATE
YOU DON’T WANT TO BE ANY WHERE ELSE ?
Mr. Tran Thang Long
HEAD OF RESEARCH
BIDV Securities Company
Email: Longtt@bsc.com.vn
Phone: +84 4 39352722 (118)
Mobi: +84 906 959 034
1
2. CONTENTS
BIDV SECURITIES COMPANY
Overview of BSC and BIDV 3
Why we will be your trusted partners 7
VIETNAM ECONOMY
China and Greece Update 9
2
W: www.bsc.com.vn Bloomberg : BSCV <GO> email :longtt@bsc.com.vn
Vietnam economy overview 13
Turning Around 17
VIETNAM STOCK MARKET
Vietnam stock market review 18
Sectors review 25
3. The storm is coming to
EMERGING MARKET
3
EMERGING MARKET
4. WORLD ECONOMIC & DIMMING FORECAST
4Source: BSC
Emerging economies
• China Slowdown
• BRIC slow down
• Devaluation &
commodities price fall
Developed economies
• High leverage
• QE not so efficiency
• Low growth
• FED rate
Geopolitical risks
• Conflict and violence
(IS in Middle East, Africa)
• Russia Bomb IS
• Cyber Security
5. VIETNAM STOCK MARKET
100
105
110
115
120
VN-Index, 103.1
MXWO, 92.5
You don’t want to be anywhere else other than Vietnam
5Source: Bloomberg
75
80
85
90
95
100
Dec-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15
VNINDEX Index
MXWO Index
MXEF Index
MXFM Index MXEF, 82.8
MXFM, 83.9
MXWO, 92.5
6. VN vs EM countries – Equities and GDP
6
Vietnam did well in term of GDP, CPI and stock market valuation still very reasonable:
• Vnindex rise 3% (in VND) and fall 3% (in USD) vs EM -17,3% & DM -6,5%
• GDP head to 6.6% (2015) with low CPI
Source: IMF, WB, Blackrock 2014
7. VN vs EM countries – FX and Balance
7
Vietnam Currencies, FX reserve, current account:
• FX reserve cover is still small less than 2.5 months of import
• Fiscal Balance and Current Account not so bad vs GDP
Source: IMF, WB, Blackrock 2014
16. MOVEMENT OF STOCK MARKET AND SECTORS IN 3Q-15
120
140
160
180
VNIndex and Sectors
W: www.bsc.com.vn Bloomberg : BSCV <GO> email :longtt@bsc.com.vn
40
60
80
100
1/5/2015 2/5/2015 3/5/2015 4/5/2015 5/5/2015 6/5/2015 7/5/2015 8/5/2015 9/5/2015 10/5/2015
Vnindex Pharmaceutical Oil & Gas
Steel Plastic Fertilizer
Sugar Aquaculture Insurance
Real Estate Construction Cement
Technology & Telecom Textile Electricity
Tire Rubber Marine Shipping
17. INVESTMENT STRATEGY 4Q 2015
In Sector review (Q1,Q2, Q3 2015)
Domestic macroeconomic factors:
•Decree No.60/2015/NĐ-CP was enacted - opening room for foreign
investor ownership Effective date: 01/09/2015
• TPP negotiations were concluded on 05/10/2015
• Vietnam Communist party meeting for key personnel voting
17
International macroeconomic factors:
•China economy : China devalued RMB by ~ 4.69%, foreign reserve
was USD 3,557 bil (-10.37%yoy) in Aug 2015. China's central bank cut
the one-year benchmark bank lending rate by 25 basis points to 4.6
percent (the lowest level in history). Vietnam devalued VND by ~ 5%
in Aug 2015 accordingly
•US economy : Fed may hike Interest rates in the year 2015. FOMC
still have 2 meeting this year.
• Not much change in EU, Japan trend
18. INVESTMENT STRATEGY 4Q 2015
Review BSC Notable investment themes of 2015
•Recovery of Macroeconomic : Banking, Insurance, Real Estate
•Recovery of Real Estate: Construction, Building Materials
•Energy prices : Plastic, Transport, Fertilizer, Consumer Goods & Services
•ECB and JCB: Cement, Electricity
18
Free Trade Agreements:
•Direct : Garment, Aquaculture, shoes, furniture, automobile trading…
•Indirect : Seaport, Industrial Zone, logistic
Seasoning effect of the 4th quarter:
• Real Estate, Construction, Building Materials (cement, bricks),
• Technology, Telecommunications and Seaports
20. INVESTMENT STRATEGY 4Q 2015
•RCEP (asean +6)
•TPP
•FTA EU
•ACE (asean)
•FTA Korea
20
•FTA Korea
•FTA Russia & B,K
•E FTA
•AANZFTA
•FTA Hongkong
•…
21. INVESTMENT STRATEGY 4Q 2015 – 17 FTAs
21
Vietnam will have the most ambitious and comprehensive 17 FTAs cover:
• 62.2% of world population 4.5/ 7.3 billions people
• 79.6% of world GDP 61.3/ 77 thousand billions USD
Source: IMF, WB 2014
22. INVESTMENT STRATEGY 4Q 2015
25
30
35
40
Telecom and Technology discounted deeply
Construction and industrial quiet ok
22
0
5
10
15
20
Telecom Health Care Technology Securities Construction Industrial Real Estate Oil & Gas Utilities Insurance Banking
Max Min Vietnam Thailand Malaysia Indonesia Philippines
23. INVESTMENT STRATEGY 4Q 2015
Positive sectors :
Banking, Insurance, Real Estate, Construction, Building materials
(cement, bricks), Technology, Telecoms, Textile, Electricity and Seaport.
Neutral sectors :
opportunities and challenges mix : plastics, steel, aquaculture, Oil&
Gas, sugar and fertilizers. We also noticed Plastics (plastic construction
segment), sugar and fertilizers have brighter potential. We down gradesegment), sugar and fertilizers have brighter potential. We down grade
tires from positive to neutral.
Negative sectors :
We are quite concerned about how the FTA affecting Vietnam's
pharmaceutical market, and reduce our investment view toward
pharmaceutical sector from neutral. to negative. Besides Shipping and
natural rubber remain weak.
In terms of the large cap, Real Estate is expected to increase the role in
the stock market in 2016 as Banking sector before. Considering the
basic elements, Seaport and Technology-Telecommunications
sectors are still the number one choices of us.
23
24. BANKING SECTOR - POSITIVE
Credit Growth Non-performing loans sale for VAMC
-4.00%
-2.00%
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
10.00%
12.00%
14.00%
16.00%
18.00%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
10.00%
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
Q4
2013
Q1
2014
Q2
2014
Q3
2014
Q4
2014
Q1
2015
Q2
2015
NPLs
We continue to maintain a Positive assessment to the banking sector, this is still the largest sector to affect the index. Credit growth
is forecast to continue rising because (1) the economic recovery, (2) low interest rates, (3) loosening the ceiling of using short-term
funds for medium and long term loans from 30% to 60%. In addition, commercial banks are boosting provision for bad debts, then
bad debt rate can reach the year-end target of less than 3%.
We also note that merging PNB (high bad debts and dubious) on STB will increase provisioning costs and decrease profitability
indicators of STB. In addition, the events of (1) BID lists 300 million shares switching with MHB and lists 270 million shares issued
to shareholders in early November; (2) CTG merging with PGBank may negatively impact the price of these shares in the short
term.
MBB’s successful private placement of 406 million shares will open room for foreign investors of more than 40 million shares from
8/10/2015.
24
-4.00%
2013 2014 2015 2015E
NPLs
Accumulated NPL sold for VAMC
NPL ratio
NPL ratio before selling NPL to VAMC
25. BANKING SECTOR - POSITIVE
Bad Debt
rate
Supervision of
the SBV
Credit
Institutions
12/2014 4.83% 3.25%
01/2015 4.55% 3.49%
02/2015 4.75% 3.59%
03/2015 3.81% 3.81%
06/2015 N/A 3.72%
Bad debt rate at the
end of 2015
Credit growth
13% 14% 15% 16% 17%
NPL sell to
VAMC in
2015
80,000 2.49% 2.47% 2.45% 2.43% 2.41%
85,000 2.38% 2.36% 2.34% 2.32% 2.30%
90,000 2.27% 2.25% 2.23% 2.21% 2.19%
95,000 2.16% 2.14% 2.12% 2.10% 2.08%
100,000 2.05% 2.03% 2.01% 1.99% 1.98%
We recommend Buy in medium and long term with VCB, BID, CTG, MBB and ACB.
25
Tickers
EAT 2014
(bil dong)
EAT 2015F
(bil dong)
EPS 2015F P/E FW P/B FW
Price
31.12.2014
Price
30.09.2015
Increase/
Decrease Target Price
VCB* 5,876 4.664 1.750 24.51 2.51 31,200 42,900 37.5% 50,000
BID* 4,948 5,724 2,036 11.64 2.13 11,500 23,700 106.09% 24,900
CTG* 5,712 5,690 1,528 12.83 1.534 13,100 19,600 49.62% 22,200
MBB* 2,476 2,554 2,070 7.24 1.01 12,300 15,000 21.95% 16,600
ACB* 952 1,014 1,131 17.15 1.41 14,800 19,400 31.08% 22,600
08/2015 N/A 3.21% 100,000 2.05% 2.03% 2.01% 1.99% 1.98%
26. REAL ESTATE SECTOR – POSITIVE
Updates for 9 months of 2015
• Real estate market continued positive performance in the first 9 months
• Signs of market bubble have not yet appeared, market is mainly absorbing the inventory of the previous
years
• Foreign capital flows tend to focus on real estate projects in the Ho Chi Minh city
• Decrees and Circulars to guide the purchase and real estate ownership of foreigners still in the
development stage.development stage.
We keep our POSITIVE assessment to the real estate sector and recommend Buy in medium – long
term with VIC, KDH, UNI.
26
Ticker
Rev2014
(bil dong)
PAT2014
(bil
dong)
Rev2015
E (bil
dong)
PAT
2015E
(bil
dong)
EPS
2015
P/E F
2015
P/B F
2015
Closed price
31/12/2014
Closed price
30/09/2015
Increase/
Decrease
Target
price
VIC* 27,727 3776 35,671 4649 3,196 14 5.42 37,900 41,700 10.03% 53,000
DXG* 523 168 716 258 2,562 6.5 2.43 14,000 17,800 27.14% 17,000
KBC 1,069 326 2,182 615 1,293 12.92 1.13 15,900 12,600 -20.75% N/A
KDH 631 102 1,252 202 1,600 14.06 1.22 20,200 21,600 6.93% 25,100
UNI 26.58 0.92 86.91 18.92 1,334 8.62 0.97 7,900 11,500 45,57% 14,488
27. CONSTRUCTION SECTOR – POSITIVE
Updates for 9 months of 2015
• Construction value for 9 months of 2015 was up 9.3% yoy (highest number in the last 5 years).
Contributing mainly to the growth in 9 months came from residential buildings (+ 11.3%yoy) and civil
engineering projects (+ 21% yoy).
• The SBV issued the directive No.05/CT-NHNN to manage loan for transport infrastructure projects. The
enactment of this new legislation will help limiting risks to the financial system and the whole economy,
but it will reduce the value of constructing transport infrastructure in the future.but it will reduce the value of constructing transport infrastructure in the future.
We keep our POSITIVE assessment for construction sector in 4Q2015. We recommended BUY in medium
and long term with LCG, HBC, CMS.
27
Ticker
Rev2014
(bil
dong)
PAT2014
(bil dong)
Rev2015E
(bil dong)
PAT2015E
(bil dong)
EPS
2015
P/E F
2015
P/B F
2015
Closed price
31/12/2014
Closed price
30/09/2015
Increase/
Decrease
Target
price
LCG 1,266 (12) 1,467 45 593 11.47 0.52 8,500 6,800 -20.0% 11,400
HBC* 3,518 69 5,300 180 2,414 7.04 1.16 10,700 17,000 58.88% 21,401
CMS* 391 16 435 28 1,615 6.32 0.82 10,100 10,200 0.99% 13,793
HUT* 2,762 259 2,316 145 1,129 9.65 0.97 12,700 10,900 -14.2%
28. TECHNOLOGY SECTOR - POSITIVE
Technology – Telecommunication Sector will have many potential opportunities to grow from
2015 thanks to
(1) The increase in companies and government agencies’ disbursement for Information system service
(2) The boosting in Software Outsourcing field
(3) Increasing investment in telecommunication infrastructure.
We maintain a positive assessment to the Information Technology & Telecom Sector in 4Q 2015
28
Ticker
Rev2014
(bil dong)
PAT2014
(bil dong)
Rev2015E
(bil dong)
PAT2015E
(bil dong)
EPS
2015
P/E F
2015
P/B F
2015
Closed price
31/12/2014
Closed price
30/09/2015
Increase/
Decrease
Target
price
FPT* 32,645 2,079 39,600 2,359 4,659 9.55 2.05 40,100 44,500 10.97% 56,186
CMG 3,265 118 3,093 155 1,800 7.89 1.19 8,900 14,200 59.55% 15,668
ITD* 448 20 540 33 1,795 8.86 1.05 8,100 15,900 96.30% 17,357
HIG* 503 5 575 11 506 11.06 0.32 4,000 5,600 40.00%
29. INSURANCE SECTOR - POSITIVE
(1) The claim ratio is under control: In the first half flood season of this year, the damages of natural disasters
by the end of September was significantly less than of 2014, so the claim ratio is expected to be low.
(2) The stock issuance to strategic shareholders of BIC and PTI will enhance the insurance ability of
these companies. In the longer term, these strategic partners with savy experience and strong financial
competence will support BIC and PTI in terms of staff training, brand-building, market development, and
expand to oversea markets. PGI’ issuance is expected to be completed in late 2015, therefore will not
significant affect the business result of the company this year.significant affect the business result of the company this year.
(3) PVI may encounter difficulties since its customer under PVN are negatively impacted by the decline in oil
price
The target price of the stocks recommended below will be updated our forthcoming report
29
Ticker
Rev 2014
(VND Bil)
PAT 2014
(VND Bil)
Rev 2015E
(VND Bil)
PAT 2015
(VND Bil)
EPS F
2015
P/E F
2015
P/B F
2015
Closed price
31/12/2014
Closed price
30/09/2015
+/- %
Target
price
PTI* 1718.2 67.3 2300 118 1,405 14.0 0.84 15,600 19,700 26.3% N/A
BIC* 1219.5 107.3 1305 123 1,049 21.4 1.27 15,600 22,400 77.7% N/A
PGI* 2123.6 88.2 2533 92 1,049 13.8 0.94 10,200 14,500 42.2% N/A
30. SEAPORT SECTOR - POSITIVE
We recommend this sector due to the fact that:
(1) Import-export activities expected to maintain high growth thanks to the signing of free trade
agreements; (2) Infrastructure investment is being promoted; (3) Efficient port utilization can be
improved thanks to the strong participation of the private sector; (4) The seaport companies are
undervalued compared with potential growth
Current risks: The slow growth of China as well as Europe may reduce the amount of import and
export goods through the ports.export goods through the ports.
30
Ticker
Rev2014
(bil
dong)
PAT2014
(bil
dong)
Rev2015
E (bil
dong)
PAT
2015E
(bil
dong)
EPS
2015
P/E F
2015
P/B F
2015
Closed price
31/12/2014
Closed price
30/09/2015
Increase/Decre
ase
Target
price
VSC* 909 248 901 270 6,500 9.3 1.6 40,500 60,500 49.38% N/A
HAH* 430 131 504 135 5,800 6.9 1.7 N/A 38,100 N/A N/A
GMD* 3,696 530.9 3,320 380 3,270 10.6 0.7 28,900 34,400 19.03% N/A
31. ELECTRICITY SECTOR - POSITIVE
We continue to maintain a POSITIVE rating for the electricity sector in 4Q2015, especially thermal
power companies.
The business performance of electricity companies is expected to be positive in 4Q215: we expect
that the business result of NT2 and PPC will continue to grow in 4Q2015 because strong El Nino spell
will lead to a decrease in volume of hydropower plants and an increase in volume and selling VCGM
price. However, a number of hydropower plants such as CHP and SJD are still expected to increase
profitability thanks to a rise in volume and a fall in expensesprofitability thanks to a rise in volume and a fall in expenses
31
Ticker
Rev
2014 (bil
dong)
EAT 2014
(bil dong)
Rev
2015E (bil
dong)
EAT
2015E (bil
dong)
EPS
2015
P/E F
2015
P/B F
2015
Closing
price
31/12/14
Closing
price
30/09/15
Change
Target
price
NT2 7,065 1,591 7,411 865 2,999 8.30 1.41 18,500 24,900 +35% 29,514
CHP 626 213 681 306 2322 8.05 1.36 13,700 18,700 +37% 20,781
SJD 391 183 434 207 4,157 6.21 1.11 28,700 25,800 -10% 30,941
SHP 596 216 632 226 2,417 7.74 1.39 18,900 18,700 -1% 20,600
32. OIL & GAS SECTOR - NEUTRAL
We continue to maintain the NEUTRAL rating for Oil & gas sector in 4Q2015. We stated that the outlook of this
sector is still difficult when the oil price is forecasted to be in low level. However, a number of good fundamental
companies should be noted when this sector witness the signal of recover.
Specifically, we expect that gas companies including PGD, CNG, PGS will grow thanks to an increase in output
volume and a decrease in input price. In addition, we also expect that PVS and PXS will continue to maintain
positive business results in 4Q2015 thanks to a rise in volume. It is noted that the 2015 forecasted business
results of PGS and CNG was adjusted due to the down trend of oil price. However, we still maintain the positive
rating for 2 stocks.
32
Ticker
Rev
2014 (bil
dong)
EAT 2014
(bil dong)
Rev
2015E (bil
dong)
EAT
2015E (bil
dong)
EPS
2015
P/E F
2015
P/B F
2015
Closing
price
31/12/14
Closing
price
30/09/15
Change
Target
price
PXS* 1,666 124 1,882 130 2,600 8.00 1.52 17,800 15,200 -14.6% 20,800
PVS* 31,373 1,765 28,227 1,466 3,163 8.00 1.07 25,700 20,800 -19.1% 25,300
CNG 1,086 112 1,013 117 4,328 7.49 1.70 28,900 29,600 2.4% 32,426
PGS 7,484 191 6,293 191 2,881 8.31 1.00 19,200 19,100 0.5% 23,934
PGD 6,965 165 29,700 43,000
33. 33
Thank you for your business, your
trust and your confidence in us