25. LUXR.CO JUNE 2012
In foolproof
experiments, the
results should be self-
evident.
26. LUXR.CO JUNE 2012
1. Choose the problem to tackle. Clarify what’s
uncertain, what you need to learn.
2. Understand the possible answers.
3. Brainstorm “what you could do to prove it”.
4. Choose the most broadly differentiated set of
indicators.
5. Run the experiment.
6. Write down the results...on a sheet of paper.
7. Project the results into your future.
7 steps to foolproof experiments
29. LUXR.CO JUNE 2012
A Real Product
What is the product weʼre working on?
Weʼre going to make a Business Canvas.
Today’s Challenge
30. LUXR.CO JUNE 2012
ENGINE OF
GROWTH
VALUE STREAM &
MARKET STAKEHOLDERS DISTRIBUTION
COSTREVENUE
PROBLEM
CUSTOMER SOLUTION
VALUE PROP
1-Viral
2-Sticky
3-Paid
1. Choose the problem to tackle. Clarify what’s
uncertain, what you need to learn.
36. LUXR.CO JUNE 2012
✓ Choose the problem to tackle. Clarify what’s
uncertain, what you need to learn.
2. Understand the possible answers.
Your Top Risk
People don’t
like my
product.
Possible
Answers
Don’t like it.
Do like it.
“Meh.”
37. LUXR.CO JUNE 2012
✓ Choose the problem to tackle. Clarify what’s
uncertain, what you need to learn.
✓ Understand the possible answers.
3. Brainstorm “what you could do to prove it”.
7 steps to foolproof experiments
38. LUXR.CO JUNE 2012
Experiment Framework
For Example:
We believe people like [customer type] have a need for
(or problem doing) [need/action/behavior].
The smallest thing we can do to prove that need is
[experiment].
We will know we have succeeded when [quantitative/
measurable outcome] or [qualitative/observable outcome].
Every experiment has three parts:
1. Hypothesis that is provable/disprovable
2. The experiment itself; the thing you build
3. An indicator of result
39. LUXR.CO JUNE 2012
{Activity}
Design an experiment
to learn if this is true.
we believe that ________________
_________________________________
_________________________________
_________________________________
_________________________________
_________________________________
_________________________________
__________________________
Briefly describe it.
State how you will know if the
hypothesis is valid or invalid.
This can be quantitative
evidence or qualitative.
How much time/money/effort
will it take?
40. LUXR.CO JUNE 2012
{Activity}
Discuss, then pick the
experiment to run.
we believe that ________________
__________________________________
__________________________________
__________________________________
__________________________________
__________________________________
__________________________________
____________ in 2 days.
Decide
we believe that ________________
__________________________________
__________________________________
__________________________________
__________________________________
__________________________________
__________________________________
____________ in 2 weeks.
we believe that ________________
_________________________________
________________________________
________________________________
________________________________
_______________________________
_______________________________
____________ in 2 months.
✔
41. LUXR.CO JUNE 2012
✓ Choose the problem to tackle. Clarify what’s
uncertain, what you need to learn.
✓ Understand the possible answers.
✓ Brainstorm “what you could do to prove it”.
4. Choose the most broadly differentiated set of
indicators.
7 steps to foolproof experiments
TODAY:
Choose an experiment you
can do from this room. Not a survey.
42. LUXR.CO JUNE 2012
Experiments that were designed
assumption experiment
measurable/observable
outcome
busy people need a service
to help them get
menial stuff done
fb ad, neighborhood targeting
presents an offer, landing page.
Phone number or tweet. No out
of pocket cost.
10% ctr on ad, 10% ctr
on landing page. 2 days
busy people need a service
to help them get
menial stuff done
find busy people (in offices). Set up a
“shop”. Sit in their reception and see if
we can get jobs. Prevail upon friend
who runs 300-person company
5% of employees will make
a hire. 1 repeat booking
2 wks
busy people need a service
to help them get
menial stuff done
ad in 10 different offices,
diff types of companies
2 weeks.
44. LUXR.CO JUNE 2012
1. Choose the problem to tackle. Clarify what’s
uncertain, what you need to learn.
2. Understand the possible answers.
3. Brainstorm “what you could do to prove it”.
4. Choose the most broadly differentiated set of
indicators.
5. Run the experiment.
6. Write down the results...on a sheet of paper.
7. Project the results into your future.
7 steps to foolproof experiments
48. LUXR.CO JUNE 2012
Techniques Checklist
• Brainstorm quietly
• Use Sticky Notes for ideas
• Self-Edit
• Go to the wall for team sharing
• Stack-ranking
• Roman Voting
• Right-Sizing the work