What not to do in stock markets. BIASES to be vary of. What to do. In efficiencies in the market.

1. Investing and You
Presented by Manish Dhawan of Mystic Wealth.

2. Who Am I
Skin in the game
MMaanniisshh DDhhaawwaann
Averaging 29.12% CAGR from last 3 years by doing simple things
like Risk Arb, Spin-off and clone Investing.

3. This Presentation has 02 parts.
What Not to do?. Tell me where I would Die and I
won't go there!!!
What to do?
Where is the MONEY!!!?

4. 2 types of players
 Technical analysts  Value Investors.
There is one thing common in them.

5. They HATE EACH OTHER

6. WHY??
Commitment and Consistency Bias.
When you commit yourself to a given strategy/philosophy/person/idea, you start
searching for confirmation evidence and start discarding disconfirming ones.

7. What Do I follow!!!

9. On a serious Note.
Intelligence is beyond the confines of profession
and categories, incidentally so is Stupidity.
Stop !!!
This BIAS and acquire Knowledge
from multiple sources.

10. I have learnt my lessons from
Intelligent Investor written by Benjamin Graham and the concept of Mr. Market
Risk management and trend following as taught by Ed Seykota
Position sizing as taught by Van Tharp
Mental Models and psychology as taught by Charlie Munger and Dan Ariely respectively.

11. Accountability
Who is a better batsmen
We know the answer because of Audited records, not one off Innings but consistent
Record over the years

12. What If
There were no rule for OUTS.
There was no scorecard.
There were no records or data?
How will U differenciate a Sachin from a Sreesanth.

13. You cannot
Without a scorecard, there will be SurvivorShip Bias.
Without a scorecard, there will be Recency Bias.
Without a Scorecard, there will be Vividness Bias.
Like Warren Once said, “Even a broken clock is right twice in a day”

14. And Yet its a common site to see this self promotion
on CNBC TV 18 and other Business Channels.

15. Moral of the story
Do NOT Listen /follow anyone who doesn't have SKIN IN THE GAME:
“Mandatory heuristic that anyone involved in an action
which can possibly generate harm for others, even probabilistically,
should be required to be exposed to some damage, regardless of context”
Nassim Nicholas Taleb..

16. Where is the MONEY
Honey!!!
PART 2
Please Note that ,markets are inefficient enough to blast the
Efficient market Hypothesis, But not enough for you to make easy money.

17. What 2 Do??
Depends on
Who U R
A Retail Investor
With No time and Interest.
A full Time Investor/trader
A retail Investor
With time and Interest

18. A Retail Investor
With No time and Interest.
RESPECT THIS full time Profession and do not INVEST
your Money Yourself.
It takes 5 years to become a doc, 4 to become an engineer, atleast 03 to
Become an entreprenuer and you will not become an Investor by reading
a couple of books.

19. A Retail Investor
With No time and
Interest.
Search for a skin in
the game
Advisory/Mutual fund
like:- PPFAS
(Parag parikh)
Invest with SIP in
Index ETF like
Quantum
(low transaction
fees)

20. A retail Investor
With time and Interest
Search for a
skin in the
game
Advisory/Mut
ual fund
like:- PPFAS
(Parag parikh)
Invest with
SIP in
Index ETF
like
Quantum
(low
transaction
fees)
LONG
TERM
TREND
FOLLOWING
.

21. LONG TERM
TREND
FOLLOWING
.
STEP 1: Go to www.screener.in and add a customised filter.
I use Average return on equity 10Years >30 AND
Average return on capital employed 5Years >20 AND
Debt to equity <0.3

22. Following Names among many others showed UP

23. These are ALL MOATS.

24. STEP 2: Plot a Cammerilla PIVOT Chart on weekly
Timeframe for the selected scrips.
STEP 3: WAIT like a HAWK for the Prices to retrace to your
PIVOTS and keep adding on their way UP.
Please request individually to get the AFL for plotting PIVOTS on
you AMBROKER charts

25. Colgate: Brush ur way to riches.

26. Asian Paint: Paint ur way to
riches.

27. Dhanuka Agri

28. Gsk Consumer

29. You know why this simple strategy works.
Do U KNOW Y??
Its a lollapalooza Effect, The Riding the wave, What goes up, Keeps going up

30. The Whipsaw SONG
Credited and attributed to Ed Seykota of www.tradingtribe.com
Non commercial Use.

31. A full Time Investor/trader
Demerger/
Spin-Off Mr.Market Myopia CLONING
IDEA is to SPOT the Inefficiency and then EXPLOIT it.

32. Demerger/
Spin-Off
Cash Cow Not
getting its due.
PIG getting hammered
Out of shape.
Post news
Value
Unlocking

33. Examples
GULF OIL Value unlocking post news.

34. Orient Paper PIG getting hammered.

35. ORIENT Cement: Cow Not respected.

36. Mr.Market Myopia
Mr Market cannot see beyond 2-4 Quarters.
That creates Opportunity

37. EXAMPLES
Maruti Lock OUT
MCX Fiasco
Thomas Cook Crash
JB Chemicals bad Quarter
Sah Petroleum Bonus Issue
Apollo Tyre Crash

38. Apollo Crash

39. MCX Fiasco

40. Sah Petroleum

41. CLONING
 Keep ego at bay, we are here to earn money, not BROWNIE POINTS.
 Don't give in to the STORY,watch out for survivorship Bias.
 Make sure there is skin in the game

42. Some People I look for
Ayush Mittal
Soham Das
Prof Sanjay bakshi
Anil Tulsiram
Amit Arora
RadhaKrishna Damani
ValuePickr

43. BOOKMARK
http://www.vantharp.com/
This website has a position sizing simulation game for you to hone your skills.
seykota.com/Tribe/risk/index.htm
EMAIL ME TO RECEIVE A WHOLE COLLECTION OF CHARLIE MUNGER'S
SPEECHES AND LECTURES

44. BOOKMARK
http://www.vantharp.com/
This website has a position sizing simulation game for you to hone your skills.
seykota.com/Tribe/risk/index.htm
EMAIL ME TO RECEIVE A WHOLE COLLECTION OF CHARLIE MUNGER'S
SPEECHES AND LECTURES

45. Prediction
“There are 02 kind of forcasters, Those who don't know and others who don't
know that they don't Know”
Daniel Kahneman

46. Process
“We are willing to look stupid as long as we have not done anything stupid”.
Warren Buffet.

47. THANK YOU
Website: www.mysticwealth.in
EMAIL: info@mysticwealth.in
Ph:- 09899176304