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NCYM 2017
THE NEW WORLD ORDER-ASIAN
ECONOMIES IN LEADERSHIP ROLES:
CAN INDIA EMERGE AS SUPERPOWER
Prepared By:
Neeraj Tiwari
Madhuraj Jha
Anuj Verma
NTPC VINDHYACHAL
DISTRICT : SINGRAULI, MP-486885

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CONTENTS
1. Introduction
2. Asian Economies in the Leadership Role.
3. Factors affecting the Rise of India as Superpower.
3.1. Burgeoning Indian Economy.
3.2. Demographic Dividend.
3.3. Growth in Agriculture and Manufacturing Sector.
3.4. Infrastructure Development and Digitisation.
3.5. Influence through Diplomacy and Soft Power.
3.6. Internal Peace and Security of Borders.
3.7. Building World Class Institutions and Indian MNC’s.
3.8. Diversification in Energy Policy and Rise of
Renewables and Project SHARE
5.Indian Model Of Management : AVATAR
6.Conclusion.
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Introduction
Golden Sparrow- the name you must have definitely heard. Such was the glory of
Indian Economy before the advent of the British. The share of the Indian Economy
in the World was more than 23% which plummeted to below 2% by the time they
left courtesy to the policies of exploitation and subjugation they
implemented.They made India their cash down by dumping their manufactured
Manchester goods here perishing the Indian cotton textile industry.
We have paid profoundly for our oppression.More than sixty years ago, in the
parched summer of 1948, the Indian nation, then newly-born, was struggling for its
very survival. It was pierced from the left by the Communists, and pinched from
the right by Hindu extremists. And there many challenges plaguing us. Eight million
refugees had to be resettled; provided with land, homes, employment and a sense
of citizenship. Five hundred princely states had to be integrated, one by one, a
process that involved much cajoling of egos and coercion. Our grandfathers know
how uncertain our future looked in the summer of 1948. The question then being
asked everywhere was “Will India Survive?‟
But the wheels of fortune have turned and economic sunrise of India has begun
since the last two decades or so. Now, the fearful query of the past has been
replaced by a far more hopeful one, namely “Will India Become the Next
Superpower?‟
The Indian economy today has emerged as the fastest growing major economy in
the world. And despite global economic volatility, India is expected to grow at
more than 7 per cent in real terms.India is emerging as a force unrelenting,
unparalleled and formidable in the Global arena.We have already surpassed Great
Britain in the world economy GDP ranking and chasing China.
At a time when global economic growth is bleak and facing the risk of downside,
International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) world economic outlook released this April a
forecast of India to grow at 7.2% in 2017-18. Prior to this, Asian Development
Bank’s (ADB) annual report also suggested that India will grow at 7.4% in 2017-18-
so IMF’s prediction is fairly in line with ADB. Similar projections have been made by
global rating agency Moody’s in its Global Macro Outlook 2017-18 at 7.5% and by
Fitch at 7.1%.Our own Economic Survey released this February estimates our
growth at 6.5% while China facing the slowest rate since 1990.
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ASIAN ECONOMIES IN THE LEADERSHIP ROLE
I. Capitalising on Recent Gains
The cloud of depression that forecasted the Global economy after Financial Crisis
of 2008 has the only silver lining in the form on Asia.
Asia’s impressive elevation into the world economy has been one of the most
striking global developments of the last generation. In that relatively short
time, many countries across this vast and diverse region have achieved
economic “miracles,” and several have become powerhouses of the global
economy.
This economic transformation has supported social development. Over the past
35 years, this region has been the world’s leader in reducing poverty.2 Education
and health outcomes have improved significantly. People’s living standards have
been raised.
Asia has also become a byword for innovation. Each day, almost everyone
around the world is touched by Asian technology. Cars, smartphones and
televisions spring to mind—but think also of biotechnology, commercial
satellites, and renewable energy.
This increased interconnectedness means that Asia now affects the world more
than ever before; by the same token, Asia is now more deeply affected by global
economic developments than ever before—and must respond to them.
In China: improving the allocation of credit to help rebalance the economy away
from debt-led investment.
In Japan: tackling dual labor markets, liberalising product markets, and
reforming corporate governance.
In India: enhancing the efficiency of product markets, encouraging private
investment, and improving infrastructure.
II. Tectonic shifts in Asian Geopolitics.
Three important events are having a significant influence on existing security
arrangements in Asia Pacific.
The result of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), led by President Xi Jinping,
US President Trump’s abandonment of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP),and
UK rattling with BREXIT issue is that many Asian states are re-orientating their
long-held policy towards the two giants.
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Trump’s ‘America First’ policy, and Xi’s policy of ‘deep pockets’ for China’s
neighbours have already made several US loyalists recalibrate their alliances.
The starkest shift has come from Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte. Despite
having long-standing issues with China after a standoff over Scarborough Shoals
in the South China Sea, and the Philippines being one of the US’s trusted allies
in Asia, Duterte has publicly shunned the US and signed multiple bilateral
treaties with China.
II.1 The Samaritan Chinese
China has donated a $7.35 million shipment of more than 3,000 assault and
sniper rifles along with ammunition to the Philippines, weapons that are likely
to be used in Mindanao against radical militants. Even five years ago, the world
would have expected the US and the West, not China, to have supported the
Philippines’ fight against radical militants.
Thailand and Malaysia, too, have been pulled closer towards China’s orbit of
influence.If the Philippines, Malaysia, Thailand, Laos and Cambodia also move
closer to China, this all has the potential to shake the fundamentals of the
geopolitical orientation of ASEAN nations.
II.2 ASEAN - Sighting Autarky
When ASEAN was formed 50 years ago, there were two driving forces. One was
to make economic gains through better trade among member states, and the
second was to form an alliance against the spread of communism in the region,
led by the then Soviet Union and Mao’s China. Today the Soviet Union has ceased
to exist, and communism is dead. China is not interested in exporting ideology,
but in expanding trade in the region. Contention in the South China Sea has
exposed potential rifts, with countries like Cambodia reluctant to upset China,
while others express support for the ruling of the International Arbitration Court
in the Hague.
As it celebrates 50 years, ASEAN leaders can’t deny or defer forever the
inevitable geopolitical realities and the implications for the bloc’s ability to
remain united over the next 50 years in the fast-changing security dynamics of
the region.
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4.1 Burgeoning Economy
Before we start talking about what India can do to get there, we have to start with a
fundamental question — what exactly is an economic superpower?
The term is used to describe a country that has achieved unmatched dominance. For
example, Britain’s march forward during the Industrial Revolution established it as an
economic superpower between the mid 1700’s and the mid 1800’s. To get there, Britain
completely overhauled its economy from one that was agriculture-based to one that
was industrial-based. The combination of new technology, new factories, and better
transportation enabled Britain’s economy not just to thrive, but to skyrocket.The
International Monetary Fund (IMF) described the Indian economy as the "bright spot" in
the global landscape. The economy of India is the sixth-largest in the world measured
by nominal GDP and the third-largest by purchasing power parity (PPP).According
to the IMF, India's growth is expected to rebound to 7.2% in the 2017–18 fiscal and 7.7%
in 2018–19.[44]
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India China
FIG 2.RANKINGS BY MAJOR INSTITUTIONS AND THEIR REPORTS (2017)
In 2003, Goldman Sachs predicted that India's GDP in current prices would
overtake France and Italy by 2020, Germany, UK and Russia by 2025 and Japan
by 2035, making it the third-largest economy of the world, behind the US and
China. India is often seen by most economists as a rising economic superpower
which will play a major role in the 21st-century global economy
INSTITUTIONS INDIA CHINA US
GDP RANKING(WEF) 7 2 1
GDP RANKING PPP BASIS (IMF) 4 1 2
EASE OF DOING BUSINESS 130 78 8
GLOBAL COMPETITIVENESS
INDEX
55 28 3
HDI 131 90 10
GDP by sector Agriculture: 16.5%

Industry: 29.8%

Services: 45.4% (2016 est.)
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4.2 Demographic Dividend
One of India’s most promising economic features is its large working-age
population. Yet if India doesn’t find jobs for its young people, this boon will
quickly turn into a powder-keg, as evinced by the recent agitations of
unemployed Jats in Haryana. In 2015, less than 13 per cent of the population
was over 55 years of age. 40.6 per cent of the population was in the prime
working-age category of 25–54 years old. And 28.5 per cent of the population
was 14 years and under, indicating that there is still plenty of labor in the
pipeline.
Four mechanisms for growth in the demographic dividend.During the course of the
demographic dividend there are four mechanisms through which the benefits are
delivered.
1. The first is the increased labor supply. However, the magnitude of this
benefit appears to be dependent on the ability of the economy to absorb
and productively employ the extra workers rather than be a
pure demographic gift.
2. The second mechanism is the increase in savings. As the number of
dependents decreases individuals can save more. This increase in national
savings rates increases the stock of capital in developing countries already
facing shortages of capital and leads to higher productivity as the
accumulated capital is invested.
3. The third mechanism is human capital. Decreases in fertility rates result in
healthier women and fewer economic pressures at home. This also allows
parents to invest more resources per child, leading to better health and
educational outcomes.
4. The fourth mechanism for growth is the increasing domestic demand
brought about by the increasing GDP per capita and the decreasing
dependency ratio
Factors favourable for india :
1. 65 percent of population below 35 years of age.
2. Massive training program through Skill india mission for capacity building
and making them able to be the part of global workforce.
3. Largest English speaking population
We touched on this point briefly when we talked about intellectual capital.
After all, India’s middle class now has access to great education opportunities,
so there is no shortage of intellectual capital in this group. However, the middle
class is such a major part of India’s economy in other ways that it merits its own
independent discussion.
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4.3 Growth In Agriculture and Manufacturing Sector
China is currently one of the world’s economic superpowers, and it’s no
coincidence that manufacturing makes up a whopping 34% of China’s gross
domestic product (GDP). In fact, China is responsible for nearly 14% of the
entire world’s manufacturing.
India, on the other hand, doesn’t play a big role in global manufacturing. Even
though manufacturing accounts for 16% of India’s GDP, the Indian manufacturing
sector is only responsible for a tiny 1.8% of the world’s manufacturing output.
Manufacturing holds a key position in the Indian economy, accounting for nearly
16 per cent of the real GDP in FY12 and employing about 12 per cent of the
country’s labour force. Growth in the sector has been strong, outpacing overall
GDP growth since the past few years. For example, while real GDP expanded at a
CAGR of 8.4 per cent over FY05–12, growth in the manufacturing sector was
marginally higher at around 8.5 per cent over the same period. Consequently, the
sector’s share in the economy increased (albeit marginally) to 15.4 per cent from
15.3 per cent.The manufacturing sector has been plagued by an all-or-nothing
philosophy for years. India is home to a variety of giant manufacturing enterprises,
but there are very few smaller enterprises. If more small enterprises popped up, it
would create more manufacturing jobs and turn India into a legitimate
manufacturing option for other countries around the world — both of which would
boost the overall economy.
Manufacturing plays a crucial role in absorbing surplus agriculture labour
The manufacturing sector is critical for the economy’s growth as it employs 12.0
per cent of the country’s labour force as well as provides a transitional
opportunity to the labour force in agriculture. In addition, the sector has a
multiplier effect for job creation in the services sector. According to National
Manufacturing Policy 2011, every job created in the manufacturing sector creates
two-three additional jobs in related activities.
MSMEs are critical for the country’s economic and social development. They
significantly contribute to the GDP, manufacturing output, exports and
employment. In India, MSMEs account for eight per cent of GDP, 45 per cent of
manufacturing output and 40 per cent of exports. Also, the labour-capital ratio is
much higher in MSMEs than larger industries. Furthermore, they are considered
budding grounds for entrepreneurs, thus encouraging innovation in the country.
Hence, it is imperative to focus on growth in MSMEs that, in turn, would provide a
fillip to the manufacturing sector as well as raise the level of employment. to
labour laws. It is also important to increase the availability of bank credit for the
SME MSME sector.
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4.4 Growth in Infrastructure and Digitisation
India is an infrastructure-famished country - be it roads, ports, railways, airports,
power generation or distribution facilities, irrigation facilities, access to telecom
infrastructure or even the very basic housing and sanitation infrastructure. Some
people also prefer to call it an implementation deficit. But the terminology makes little
difference to the reality one looks at every day.
First, improvements will have to be undertaken in existing infrastructure be it railway
corridors, roads, electricity generation and distribution, ports, airports, dams,
irrigation, sanitation, access to telecom and the like.
Secondly, and also equally critically, there should be the creation of new
infrastructure in places and areas where there is a plaguing infrastructure deficit.
If one compares India's infrastructure development with stellar successes like China,
we find that we have lagged. Consider the railroads' development in China. China
had close to 23,000 route km of railways in 1951 compared with the commensurate
figure of 53,500 Km for India.
Infrastructure sector is a key driver for the Indian economy. The sector is highly
responsible for propelling India’s overall development and enjoys intense focus from
Government for initiating policies that would ensure time-bound creation of world
class infrastructure in the country. Infrastructure sector includes power, bridges,
dams, roads and urban infrastructure development. In 2016, India jumped 19 places
in World Bank's Logistics Performance Index (LPI) 2016, to rank 35th amongst 160
countries.
Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) received in Construction Development sector
(townships, housing, built up infrastructure and construction development projects)
from April 2000 to March 2017 stood at US$ 24.3 billion, according to the 2,500 crore
(US$ 0.37 billion), primarily to expand capacity at 12 airports to accommodate
increase air traffic, as per the Chairman of AAI.
The Government of India and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) have signed US$
375 million in loans and grants for developing 800 kilometer (km) Visakhapatnam-
Chennai Industrial Corridor, which is the first phase of a planned 2,500 km East
Coast Economic Corridor (ECEC).
Road Ahead
Sweden is interested in smart cities development in India and has put forward a
Common Plan of Action for developing sustainable and environment-friendly public
transport solutions and solid waste management for the smart cities under
development.
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DIGITISATION’S ECONOMIC IMPACT
Impact on GDP per capita:
Our analysis reveals that an increase of 10 percent in a country’s digitisation score
fuels a 0.75 percent growth in its GDP per capita. As an economic accelerant,
digitisation therefore is 4.7 times more powerful than the 0.16 percent average
impact of broadband deployment
on per capita GDP, according to several previous studies.
Additionally, the economic effect of digitisation accelerates as countries move to
more advanced stages of digitisation. Digitally constrained economies receive the
least benefit, largely because they have yet to establish an ICT ecosystem that can
capitalise on the
benefits of digitisation.
Impact on unemployment:
Digitisation creates jobs, with a 10 point increase in the digitisation score leading to a
1.02 percent drop in the unemployment rate. This is 4.6 times greater than the effect
that the widespread adoption of broadband has on reducing unemployment;
broadband cuts the unemployment rate by just 0.22 percent.
We are witnessing an unprecedented growth in connectivity , data and broadband
which is accelerating India’s transition to a knowledge economy. Digitisation, which
harnesses the power of connecting people, process, data and things, will transform
our industries and change the way we work and how governments serve its citizens.
A report by the Columbia University has identified that digitisation has a larger
contribution to GDP than stand-alone technologies. It states that a 10 point increase
in digitisation yields a 0.74% increase in per capita GDP.
Given the huge divide between rural and urban India and the digital haves and have-
nots, digitisation will be key to maintaining India’s global competitiveness, GDP
growth, innovation and creating employment. The government’s digitising India
vision has been designed around three core areas:
Digital infrastructure for every citizen of India, with an aim to drive the enablement of
urban and rural digital infrastructure primarily to provide eGovernance mGovernance
to citizens.
Governance and service on demand, which will focus on driving the modernisation
and re-engineering of government processes and services to simplify governance.
Digital empowerment of citizens, with the goal to address the current gap of the
digital “haves“ and “have-nots“ by developing skills and capacities of not only the
citizens but also of the government agencies and employees at large.
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4.5 Influence through Diplomacy and Soft Power
Over the last decade, many scholars and analysts have tried to assess India’s
emergence as a major actor in the global arena by looking at such material
indicators as economic growth, military expansion or demographic evolution. As
a consequence, these accounts have mainly overlooked New Delhi’s increased
emphasis on developing its ‘soft power’ credentials by using the attractiveness
of Indian culture, values and policies. Indian diplomats like Sashi Tharoor have
recently argued that if India is now perceived as a superpower, it was not just
through trade and politics but also through its ability to share its culture with
the world through food, music, technology and Bollywood.
In the past decade, the country wielded its soft power in a more systematic way
in the practice of diplomacy. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, in power since 2014,
is becoming known for his passionate use of India’s soft-power assets through
both an effective media management strategy and an intelligent use of social
media. This Brief finds that while these efforts have helped improve India’s
image before the international community, the effect in terms of stronger
relations with other countries has remained rather limit.
• Several initiatives have been launched to push India to the forefront of
the international community, including the creation in 2006 of a public
diplomacy division within the Ministry of External Affairs, the worldwide
expansion of the Indian Council for Cultural Relations (ICCR), the Ministry
of Tourism’s ’Incredible India’ campaign, and the work of the Ministry for
Overseas Indians.
• These efforts have not only helped emphasise the social and cultural
assets of India abroad, but they also support the country’s major foreign-
policy initiatives such as its strategic aid and trade partnerships in
Africa . After all, the promotion of business and trade, together with the
creation of employment opportunities, are key components of Prime
Minister Narendra Modi’s diplomacy efforts.
• To be sure, soft-power diplomacy is not the only tool in the government’s
arsenal for improving the country’s image. Other serious campaigns—for
instance, to combat corruption and crime—are also enhancing the
outsider’s view of what India is, and what it can be as a leader in global
politics. Effective media management and an intelligent use of social
media are among the elements of PM Modi’s strategy.
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4.7 Internal Peace and Security of Borders
Power is a notoriously elusive concept. The question of how one can define, list,
and identify the different facets of national power is one that has long
preoccupied social scientists.
The Indian Armed Forces are the military forces of the Republic of India. It
consists of three professional uniformed services: the Indian Army, Indian Navy,
and Indian Air Force. India has third largest Armed Forces with strength of over
1.3 million active personnel and 1.2 reserve personnel.



The Army of India, as the Indian army was called under British rule before 1947,
played a crucial role in checking the advance of Imperial Japan into South Asia
during World War II. It also played a leading role in the liberation of Bangladesh
in 1971.



The Indian Air Force is the fourth largest air force in the world. India recently
inducted its second indigenously manufactured combat aircraft. India is also
developing the fifth generation stealth aircraft.



The Indian Navy is the world's fifth largest navy. It is considered to have blue-
water capabilities with sophisticated missile-capable warships, aircraft carrier,
minesweepers, advanced submarines and the latest aircraft in its inventory,
along with a significant use of state of the art technology that is indigenously
manufactured. It operates two aircraft carriers and also plans to induct the INS
Vikrant by 2018 followed by a larger INS Vishal.



India is currently one of the world's largest arms importers, spending an
estimated US$16.97 billion in 2004. India has made military technology deals
with the Russian Federation, the U.S., Israel and the EU.


The Indian Army controls the land based ballistic missiles. At present these are
of three types—the Agni 1, the Agni 2, Agni 3 and there is one more which is
Prithvi missile family’s army variant- the Prithvi 1. The other variants from the
series of Agni missile family are still under development which includes the
latest ones named as the Agni 4 and Agni 5. The estimated range of Agni 4 is
4000km whereas that of Agni 5 is 5500-6000 km. Agni 6 is also under
development and has an estimated range of 8000-12000 km. the latest one is
going to have some special features like MARV( Maneuverable Reentry Vehicles)
or MIRVs (Multiple Independently Targetable Reentry Vehicles).
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4.8 Building World Class Infrastructure and Indian MNC’s.
There are several reason why the West continues to score well in terms of soft
power, the most obvious being that western countries have a pluralist political
culture where having dissident views, will not, by and large, end up with one
spending a rather long-term in prison or worse.
But another reason – clearly connected – has to do with its open system of higher
education. Here even the much-maligned US continues to have great magnetic
pull, nowhere more so than in China itself judging by the enormous number of
Chinese students who every year seek a place in US institutions of higher learning.
Many of them may in the end return to China. However, they clearly believe that
getting an education in a US college will improve their job prospects in an
increasingly tough Chinese job market.Nor is this temporary “brain drain” a mere
accident of history.
Indeed, one of the more obvious signs of continued western and American strength
is its university sector.Other countries and continents obviously have universities.
But very few of them rank especially high in international terms.The BRIC
countries in particular seem to face almost insuperable difficulties in raising
standards.
Brazil and India for example have no universities in the top 100, Russia only one,
and China a mere 5 – three of these being in Hong Kong. The United States
meanwhile is home to 8 of the top 10 ranked universities in the world, 37 of the
top 50, and 58 of the top 100. Even the United Kingdom does well having 17 ranked
universities compared to a total of 13 in the whole of Asia.
If standards in higher education are still being set in the West, the same can also
be said about the rules and associated institutions that govern international
relations more generally. Admittedly, many of the most important institutions in
the world today are not functioning as well they might: and over time, it seems
clear that changes in the international economy will have to be reflected in the
way the world is managed.
The fact remains however that nearly all of the key rules governing the global
economy, and most of those dealing with critically important issues such as nuclear
non-proliferation, trade liberalisation, women‟s rights, and the protection of
intellectual property rights, have been laid down by, and are still more likely to be
upheld by, countries in the West.
This in large part has much to do with their still very high dependency on western
markets and western Foreign Direct Investment. But more importantly, it is
because they realise that their own success over the past twenty five years has
been in some part determined by them adopting broadly western economic rules.
This is not to play down their own contribution to their own success. Nor should we
assume that countries like China and India have adopted a pure western model.
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4.6 Diversification in Energy Policy and Rise of Renewables
Energy security is critical for a country like India with a population of 1.2 billion
and one that aspires to be in the league of superpowers.Energy demand has been
growing steadily, only to be expected of a growing economy of the size of India.
However, supply is unable to keep pace with it, thus pushing the nation to the
brink of an energy crisis.
Demand-Supply Gap
During the Eleventh Five Year Plan, nearly 55,000 MW of new generation capacity
(electricity) was created, yet there continued to be an overall energy deficit of
8.7% and peak shortage of 9.00%, according to a Central Statistics Office report.
Resources currently allocated to the energy sector are not sufficient to narrow the
demand-supply gap. As a result, our dependence on imports is increasing.
Not to forget, India is the fourth largest primary energy consumer after China, USA
and Russia. Besides, it accounts for more than 4.6 % of the total global annual
energy consumption.
If India is to maintain an average growth rate of about 8% in the coming years, its
energy resources will continue to feel the strain.
Challenges related to energy security
Low number of proven hydrocarbon reserves and lack of interest of foreign players
in exploration and production is having a negative impact on India’s energy sector.
Only 22% of our sedimentary basins have been explored for energy resources. The
rest are oscillating between ‘exploration initiated’ to ‘poorly explored’.
More oil and gas imports: The volume of gas imports has been steadily increasing in
India, all the more after the once lucrative KG-D6 basin began to see a dip in its
production. Our crude oil import bills too are inflating.
There is a “Green Energy Revolution” underway in India that can increase
prosperity for millions of poor families by harnessing the abundant and clean
energy of the sun. With the right policies in place India can easily become a
world leader in solar energy. This solar endeavour could also help address acute
power shortages, and make a real difference in slowing the pace of climate
change.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi has outlined his vision for increasing India’s
renewable energy capacity five-fold from 30 GW to 175 GW, including a boost in
solar power generation from 20 GW to 100 GW. The plan is to achieve these
targets by 2022. But to do so, India needs a National Energy Policy, Regulatory
Programs and innovative financing mechanisms that encourage the development
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of distributed energy, particularly, applications that combine solar generation
with energy storage.
For India, a combination of solar power and energy storage is the answer to true
energy independence. For its part, the Indian government has taken several
measurable steps toward improving infrastructure and power reliability but,
more needs to be done — and fast. Micro-grids can be used to take substantial
electrical load off the existing power grid and so reduce the need for building
new or expanding existing transmission and distribution systems.
Energy security in Power sector and need for the diversification
In Power sector, we are self-reliant, As the demand -supply gap is narrowed down
to just 0.3% last fiscal. We are also engaging in Power trading with our neighbours
like Nepal, Bhutan and Bangladesh. NTPC being the largest state-owned power
company is excelling the sector by generating 25% of the power produced in the
country. It has a subsidiary named as NTPC Vidyut Vyapar Nigam that is engaging in
power trading business within the country and across the borders. It has a JV with
Bangladesh Power development cooperation named as BIFPCL (Bangladesh- India
Friendship power corporation limited) which is setting up a project in Bangladesh.
So, power sector can emerge as a sector in which exports can be realised and if
Indian government through diplomacy is able to integrate the Indian Grid with the
Grid of other subcontinental Neighbours then certainly we can tap the enormous
potential lying in the subcontinent and can once again raise our PLFs from 55% to
90%.
The main challenge in this sector in rapid diversification. In accordance with the
ratification of the ratification of the Paris Climate deal (United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change, Paris summit), GOI have given its commitments to
contain the climate change. India have pledged to reduce the Carbon emission by
33-35% by 2030 from 2005 levels. Moreover, we have also committed to generate
over 40% of our power from renewable sources of energy.
Out of the envisioned 175 GW, 100 GW will come from solar because of
geographical location of India. India is a tropical country and thus have a higher
solar insolation. Thus, it becomes imperative to tap this blessing and in follow up
of this, India have orchestrated the formation of International Solar Alliance(ISA)
at United Nations. It is an alliance with other tropical nations to boost up the Solar
infrastructure in their respective countries by a collective effort. Headquarters of
ISA is in India. Another 60 GW will come from the wind energy as 9 of our states
are coastal and have a lot of untapped wind potential. India also needs to move
towards other unconventional sources like Tidal, Geothermal and Biomass.
“The Ministry of New and Renewable Energy’s target to install 10,000 micro-grid/
500 MW of micro and mini-grids will offer an additional opportunity to the tune of
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Rs3,300 crore for battery manufacturers. Batteries are a critical component of
micro/mini-grid systems, since 100% backup is often required to supply electricity
to rural households during evening hours,” said the analysis.
INDIA- A RENEWABLE SUPERPOWER
The Total Grid Capacity of India is 330 GW as on 31 July 2017. Renewable power
constitutes 30.8% of total installed capacity. India have a large potential of
renewable energy i.e. Solar, Wind and Small Hydroelectricity. India’s geographical
location of being a tropical country ensures that we have large amount of Solar
Insolation which can be tapped to transform the electricity sector of our country.
With 300 to 330 sunny days a year, India can generate 5000 Trillion KWh of Solar
energy a year. In other words, India could easily install around 1000 GW of solar
generation capabilities- equivalent to 4 times the current peak Power Demand (250
GW), that too using just 0.5% of the country’s area.
Therefore, Economist and activist Jeremy Rifkin, said that “India is the Saudi
Arabia of the renewable energy Sector”.
GOI has set up an ambitious target of 175 GW by 2022 (100GW Solar, 60 GW of
Wind, 10 GW of wind and 5GW of small hydroelectric sector).
If India aspires to be a superpower in energy sector, then in addition to the
capacity addition, we must create demand for renewable energy. And with proper
demand supply measures partnered will envisioned supply will drive India to
become a Renewable Superpower.
• With a better R&D and scientific research, the solar power tariffs have
reduced from Rs 12/ unit to Rs 3.15/unit, thus ensuring that renewable
power can now compete with conventional sources of energy and will drive
the Global power sector demand.
• Serious implementation of RPO (Renewable purchase obligation) mechanism
would serve the objective to develop renewable energy as a commercially
viable alternatives. Purchasing of Renewable energy certificates(RECs) in
lieu of purchasing renewable power will also serve the purpose.
• Renewable energy will play a key role as an off-grid solution to power
demand.
• Government of India have come up with its project “Power for All by 2019”
in which to ensure the last mile connectivity Renewable energy will play a
significant rule. NTPC is the flag bearer for government in this area and
have installed decentralised distribution systems of 340 KW capacity
benefitting 2280 households with a population of 12500 in 4 states.
Page of17 32
• New Net metering policy of GOI will usher a new era of demand side
management and smart infrastructure. It will boost the rooftop solar
capacities.
• One of the major constraint of lack of demand is the financial health of
DISCOM’s. The UDAY scheme have ushered a new era in which debt trapped
DISCOM’s are reviving and becoming financially capable.
• A lot of developments are going on in the areas of Smart Grids, Micro/Mini
Grids, Battery Storage systems and Electric vehicles which will also give
boost to the demand of renewable energy.
a) Smart Grid- Smart grid is an electricity network in which electrical grid is
combined with digital infrastructure to ensure an efficient grid operation
and 2-way communication b/w the customer and the utility. The smart
grids are reliable, efficient, economical and environmentally suitable
and have a greater tendency to assimilate the renewable power.
b) Micro/Mini Grids- There is a Draft National Policy of RE based micro/mini
grids to usher the last mile connectivity of unconnected rural areas. Mini
grids are the grids in which renewable energy generators are greater
than 10 KW and targets a set of customers via Public Distribution
Networks. Micro Grids are just like mini grids with generator capacities
less than 10 KW.
c) Battery Storage Systems- Battery storage systems are essential for the
growth of renewable energy sector in India as it does not have enough
gas based power to stabilise the grid during peak demand operations.
India will soon have its first grid scale battery storage system of 10MW
developed by TATA power distribution company, Delhi.
d) Electricity vehicle segment- Electric vehicles have low costs, less
maintenance and battery will work well with Solar and Wind as the
energy storage devices.
India is adding 50% more Solar and Wind than the U.S currently has installed and
we can proudly believe that “India is the poster boy for the clean energy” and
certainly will be a renewable superpower.
Page of18 32
PROJECT SHARE
(SOUTH ASIAN HARMONY FOR ADVANCEMENT AND REDEPLOYMENT OF ENERGY)
Acute energy poverty is one of the principal challenges in South Asia. Resource scarcity
and a burgeoning population make electrification a particularly daunting task. Given the
high variance in distribution of natural resources, regional trade of electricity is an
obvious solution, as the International Energy Agency pointed out in its World Energy
Outlook 2013.
Power-starved South Asia can do much better if the countries improve cooperation on
buying and selling electricity and move from bilateral agreements to a regional
agreement
Electricity cooperation between South Asian countries has been the topic of discussion on
many platforms such as the South Asia Regional Initiative for Energy Integration (SARI/EI),
Asian Development Bank funded projects such as cross border transmission line between
Indian and Nepal.
The project highlights the economic and reliability benefits of electricity trading among
the countries in South Asia encompassing the sub region containing Afghanistan,
Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. The project builds up on the
study complied in 2013 built on the SAARC (South Asia Association of Regional Cooperation)
Regional Energy Trade Study (SRETS) conducted by Asian Development Bank (ADB). Such
electricity trading would allow utilities to optimally utilise the available resources to
satisfy demand across the whole sub region. Maldives was not considered in the study due
to its remoteness from the rest of the South Asian landmass and hence the difficulty in
providing an electricity transmission interconnection.
The study also considered the possibility of South Asian region benefitting from electricity
trade with Central Asian region bordering Afghanistan. It specifically examined the costs
and benefits of six ongoing or planned cross-border electricity transmission
interconnections at the time.
These are
(i) Bhutan-India grid reinforcement.
(ii) India-Nepal 400 KV transmission link
(iii) India-Sri Lanka proposed HVDC transmission link which includes a submarine
cable component.
(iv) Bangladesh - India HVDC transmission link commissioned in October 2013.
(v) India-Pakistan 220 kilovolt and 400 kilovolt transmission links
(vi) India-Pakistan 400 kilovolt transmission link coupled with CASA 1000
transmission link.
(vii) India- Myanmar New grid – Gateway to the South East Asian Nations.
Page of19 32
The project clearly demonstrates that large scale transmission interconnection
capacity would assist development of large hydropower potential in Nepal and
Bhutan which can then be transferred to India resulting in a significant drop in
fossil fuel use, power shortages and Carbon Dioxide (CO2) emissions in the
region. This study is a unique effort to illustrate how important these benefits
can be even with minimum interventions.
The benefits in terms of CO2 reduction have also been quantified. It was
estimated that the benefits of each of these interconnections range from $ 105
million to $ 1840 million under different scenarios. The benefit to cost ratios of
the interconnections are extremely attractive and in the range from 3.7 to 102.
The carbon dioxide reduction due to hydropower generation
transferred from Bhutan to India alone would be about 10 million tons
in 2016/17 and can be as high as 40 million tons annually by 2020/21.
The project emphasising the need to construct these transmission
interconnections in an orderly manner, extending the existing power exchanges
in India to accommodate regional trading and strengthening legal and
regulatory regimes.
In this regard because the of geographical location and the sheer size
of the power system with a significant appetite for enormous
quantities of power.
India must assume the role of a central hub in driving power trading
the region, at least initially. A market-driven process for cross-border
power trading together with a regulatory framework that enforces a
strong economic discipline would maximise the benefits from the
development of interconnection projects.
Bilateral cooperation brighter
There has been movement in the direction of bilateral trade of electricity, for both
generation transmission. Bilateral trades involving India have been primarily
hydropower focussed, and there is still large untapped hydropower potential in the
Himalayan rivers, mainly in Bhutan and Nepal.
Only 2% of the potential hydropower in Nepal and 6% in Bhutan have been tapped
so far, according to the latest studies. Given the large demand for electricity,
particularly in Pakistan and Bangladesh, electricity trade is the clear answer,
either through regional cooperation or bilaterally. However, even bilateral
electricity trade between countries cannot be conceived without Indian
involvement. As a result of its location, India is a key player in achieving any
electricity cooperation in the region.
"The power ministry has already prepared the guidelines for cross border trade of
electricity and the Central Electricity Regulatory Commission has come up with the
Page of20 32
draft regulations," said a power industry source with knowledge of the
development.
"The draft guidelines offer scope of cross-border trade through power exchanges
and once the regulations are firmed up, the exchanges would come into play. Some
progress is likely to be expected over the next few months," he added.
The power ministry estimates greater possibilities of trade by 2036, with India
importing more from Bhutan and Nepal and exporting around 2,000MW to
Bangladesh and 1,000MW to Sri Lanka.
"At present, the cross-border transactions in electricity between India and the
neighbouring countries of Bhutan, Bangladesh, Nepal and Myanmar are taking place
essentially through long-term, medium-term and short-term contracts under
bilateral memorandum of understanding (MoU)/power trade agreements (PTA).
"It is envisaged that the new regulations to be framed by the commission will
further harmonise the extant laws/rules/regulations governing cross border trade
in electricity and create a common platform for all the stakeholders," the CERC
draft report said.
The exchanges, meanwhile, are expecting monthly spot trades to remain firm with
market clearing prices stabilising in the coming months.
Using power trade as a tool for diplomacy, India spread goodwill in its
neighbourhood extending up to Myanmar by exporting 5,798 MU (million units)
during the April 2016-February 2017 period. This is roughly 4% more than 5,585 MU
it imported from Bhutan, data from Central Electricity Authority (CEA) shows.



India started cross-border trade in electricity since the mid 80's, essentially with
importing power from hydel projects build in Bhutan and supplying small quantities
to Nepal as part of government-to-government deals. Since then, the country has
established a mesh of cross-border interlinks for supplying to Nepal and
Bangladesh.
On an average, India has been importing 5,000-5,500 MUs from Bhutan, while
exporting 190 MW to Nepal over 12 cross-border lines from Bihar and UP and 600
MW to Bangladesh through two interconnects from Bengal and Tripura. As a result
of rising cross-border wheeling capacity, export to Nepal and Bangladesh have
showed an increase of 2.5 and 2.8 times, respectively, in the last three years.



The development also coincides with efforts to export coal to Bangladesh — an
indication of the situation changing from shortage to surplus. India's power plants
were facing acute fuel shortage till three years back. But steps taken by the
Narendra Modi government in the last three years have brought it to a position
Page of21 32
where it needs to look at exports, even if in small quantities, to maintain pace of
mining and reduce stocks piling up at mines.
India has exported around 5,798 million units to Nepal, Bangladesh and Myanmar.
This is 213 million units more than the import of around 5,585 million units from
Bhutan.
The export to Nepal increased 2.5 times and export to Bangladesh has grown by
2.8 times in the last three years.
Sri Lanka is making a big push into the energy sector, with focus on renewable
energy, and that is an opportunity for India.
Crucial to India’s involvement in Sri Lankan energy projects is the construction of a
transmission line – an undersea power cable – between the two countries, for
which talks have been going on for some years now.
A transmission line could make two-way flow of energy possible. Energy costs in Sri
Lanka is quite high – average tariff hovers over 15 Sri Lankan rupees (or Rs. 6.45),
with the tariffs going as high as 45 LKR. Of the 5.5 million customers, 2.8 million
consume less than 90 kWhr a month and fall into the lower slab of rates.Ceylon
Electricity Board pays around LKR 22 for wind and solar power, (though, a recent
wind capacity auction hammered down the tariff to LKR 12.29 a kWhr.)
As such, there is potential for Sri Lanka to buy cheaper power from India, for
which talks are on. Conversely, India could benefit if the wind-rich Mannar region
could be developed to its full potential.
A 100 MW wind project in Mannar in the North West (where the potential is
estimated to be 5,000 MW), a programme to spawn distributed installation of 60
solar plants of 1 MW capacity each across the country, another clutch of 100 MW of
solar plants including one floating plant on a reservoir and a million roof top solar
plants aggregating to 1 GW are in various stages of roll-out.The island is suitable
for both wind and solar, said a spokesman of Gamesa. At the windfarms in
Kalpatiya and Puttalam on the western coast, wind speeds are of the order of a
very fecund 8 metres a second; likewise the good insolation at Hambantota on the
southern rim is estimated to yield at least 2.2 million kWhr of electricity a MW of
solar capacity.
COUNTRIES POWER DEMAND POWER SUPPLY DEFICIT
NEPAL 1400 MW 850 MW 550 MW
BANGLADESH 6500 MW 5000 MW 1500 MW
SRI LANKA 5000 MW 4000 MW
MYANMAR 20000 Gwh 13000 Gwh
Page of22 32
The New Digital Age Indian Management Model
AVATAR
LEADING TO THE REINCARNATION OF THE GOLDEN SPARROW
REINCARNATION OF INDIA
Page of23 32
Attributes of AVATAR
A Augmenting Growth with Neighbourhood Empowerment
and Environmental Sensitisation.
V Value Addition for Sustainability and Customer Delight.
A Accelerating through Automation and Innovation Policy
Making.
T Traversing Conservatism by Assimilating Ethos - Personal,
Professional and Spiritual.
A Anticipating shifts in Customer Preferences and offering
Proactive solutions.
R Rekindling Scientific Temper through Synergy between
Academics and Industry.
Page of24 32
A
Augmenting Growth with Neighbourhood Empowerment and
Environmental Sensitisation.
The most pertinent question being asked by everyone in the private sector is
what can we as a business do to minimise the government interference in their
functioning ?Now if we adopt an optimistic approach, the answer is very easy.
Let us first understand why does the government interfere ?
Economic interventions in our market-based economies include targeted taxes,
minimum wage legislation, trade unions, contracting preferences, minimum
price supports, price caps, production quotas, import quotas, and tariffs
regulations.
I. Arguments for government intervention to improve equality
Government interferes it feels there is accumulation of wealth in few hands.
Government interferes if it feels there is victimisation of few.
Government interferes if it feels there is marginalisation of poor.
In a free market, there tends to be inequality in income, wealth and
opportunity. Private charity tends to be partial. Government intervention is
necessary to redistribute income within society.
I.1 Diminishing marginal returns to income. The law of diminishing returns
states that as income increases, there is a diminishing marginal utility. If you
have an income of £2 million a year. An increase in income to £2.5 million gives
only a marginal increase in happiness/utility. For example, your third sports car
gives only a small increase in total utility.
However, if you are unemployed, and surviving on £50 a week. A 10% increase in
income gives a substantial boost in living standards and quality of life.
Therefore, redistributing income can lead to a net welfare gain for society.
Therefore income redistribution can be justified from a utilitarian perspective.
I.2 Fairness. In a free market, inequality can be created, not through ability
and handwork, but privilege and monopoly power. Without government
intervention, firms can exploit monopoly power to pay low wages to workers
and charge high prices to consumers.
I.3 Inherited wealth. Often the argument is made that people should be able to
keep the rewards of their hard work. But, if wealth and income and opportunity
depend on being born into the right family, is that justified? A wealth tax can
reduce the wealth of the richest, and this revenue can be used to spend on
education for those who are born in poor circumstances.
Page of25 32
I.4 Rawls social contract. Rawls’ social contract stated that the ideal society is
one where you would be happy to be born in any situation, not knowing where
you would end up. Using this social contract, most people would not choose to
be born in a free market because the rewards are concentrated in the hands of
a small minority of the population.
II.Government intervention to overcome market failure
II.1 Public goods. In a free market, public goods such as law and order and
national defence would not be provided because there is no fiscal incentive to
provide goods with a free rider problem (you can enjoy without paying them).
Therefore, to provide public goods like lighthouses, police, roads, e.t.c it is
necessary for a government to pay for them and out of general taxation. see:
public goods
II. 2 Merit goods / Positive externalities. Goods like education and health care
are not strictly public goods (though they are often referred to as public goods).
In a free market, provision tends to be patchy and unequal.
II. 3 Negative externalities like Environment and climate change. The free
market does not provide the most socially efficient outcome, if there are
externalities in consumption and production. By contrast, other forms of energy
production, like solar power, are environmentally friendly and have a positive
externality.
II. 4 Regulation of monopoly power. In a free market, firms may gain monopoly
power; this enables them to set higher prices for consumers. Government
regulation of monopoly can lead to lower prices and greater economic
efficiency.
III. Macro Economic Intervention
In recessions, there is a sharp fall in private sector spending and investment,
leading to lower economic growth. If the government also reduce spending at
the same time, there is an even bigger fall in economic growth and collapse in
confidence. In a deep recession, governments can borrow from the private
sector and spend the money to employ unemployed resources. If there is a
collapse in the money supply, there may be a role for the Central bank or
Government to print money. Similarly, the government may need to prevent an
economic boom and explosion of credit. So if we become proactive and taken
preemptive measures then we can be partially certain of reduced intervention
from the government machinery.
Page of26 32
V
Value Addition for Sustainability and Customer Delight
This proposes an approach to fathom corporate contributions to sustainability.
Whenever benefits exceeds the cost, value is added.
The approaches to measure corporate sustainable performance should take into
account not not only external costs caused by environmental and social damage
or focus on the ratio between value creation and source consumption but also
sustainable measures based on opportunity costs. We need to focus on how
much more value is created because a company is more efficient than a
benchmark and the resources are allocated to a company and not to benchmark
companies. The concept of strong sustainability requires that each form of
capital is kept constant. It measures whether a company creates extra value
while ensuring that every environmental and social impact is in total constant.
The three dimensions of sustainability must be taken care of- economic,
environmental and social aspects.
CUSTOMER DELIGHT
Deciding on the appropriate level of customer service remains an important area
of research. In the current service environment where competition is
ubiquitous, the importance of identifying and retaining key customers is of
paramount importance. As such, the concept of customer delight, which refers
to a profoundly positive emotional state experienced by the customer, has
developed. Unfortunately, much remains unknown regarding customer delight.
In response to this dearth of research, the current study focuses on delight from
multiple perspectives utilising multiple methods. Thus, this dissertation adds to
the emerging knowledge base of customer delight in three areas: first, assessing
what delight represents to the employee; second, investigating its impact on
the employee; and third, examining what delight represents to the customer.
Page of27 32
A
Accelerating Through Automation And Innovation Policy
Making
Three different aspects of private sector involvement such as the stages of
policy-making, types of involvement and extent of involvement.
In the design stage , in India the private sector is comparatively much less
involved than its counterparts in any other country. In the implementation
stage, some joint activities are common for all countries.During the evaluation
stage, India employs fewer instruments than any other country. The differences
are in the quality and frequency of use of these instruments. In the stages of
instigation and design, the other countries use many more instruments, which
might be an indication of their ongoing learning process.
Altogether, in India the private sector involvement in R&D and innovation policy
shows very differing patterns to the policy-making practice of Western European
countries.Both the public and the private sectors still have to learn how to work
together in participatory policy-making' to be able to form relevant and useful
R&D and innovation policy.
Page of28 32
T
Traversing Conservatism by Assimilating Ethos - Personal,
Professional and Spiritual
To be conservative is to be disposed to think and behave in certain manners; it
is to prefer certain kinds of conduct and certain conditions of human
circumstances to others; it is to be disposed to make certain kinds of choices.
And my design here is to construe this disposition as it appears in contemporary
character, rather than to transpose it into the idiom of general principles.
Personal ethos is your personal framework for making moral choices. A key
element of a personal ethos is authenticity. Knowing where you stand on
morality, and why you stand there, is an essential step towards making better
choices.The successful millennial needs a purpose. Why do we do what we do?
What is it that drives us? What are we willing to do to accomplish our definition
of success? Many Millennials struggle with finding direction. They seem to
wonder what their path in life should look like. We believe that one of the more
important things that a Millennial can do is work through and write out their
own ethos.
Although it is very common to hear about the professional ethos and to use this
concept in the corporate world, nonetheless there is a forgotten and proper
idea given by the necessity of fitting the concept into its proper measurement
and context. Professional ethos involves integrity, moral consistency, value
transparency, embracing an attitude of service.
Contrary to one popular interpretation of this word this does not presuppose or
demand that all are religious. Rather, we interpret the word 'spiritual' to relate
to all aspects of the non-tangible realities of our existence.
For all, it will include an awareness that within ourselves we possess a spark of
light that becomes a flame as we consciously reflect on the awe and wonder of
our world, and our own advantaged place within it.This conscious awareness of
our place in the world results in an unwillingness to be content with simply
enjoying our own comfortable privilege. It drives us to embrace a mind-set that
sees that with privilege comes responsibility and with tremendous privilege
comes tremendous responsibility.
One has to rise above Sectarianism, casteism , regionalism and communalism to
bring about significant development in the country.
Page of29 32
A
Anticipating shifts in Customer Preferences and offering
Proactive solutions
Perhaps the most insidious strategic risk companies today face is decimation of
the customer base by shifts in behaviour, preferences, and demographics. These
shifts may happen gradually or literally overnight. Either way, they can destroy
a business design.
Customers are people--unpredictable, irrational, emotional, curious, and highly
prone to change. Customers can't keep still. They re-segment themselves from
"product buyers" to "value buyers" to "price buyers" and then back again. Their
priorities change from "quality" to "price" to "solutions" to "style" to "brand."
They get richer. They get poorer. They get excited by and attracted to different
styles, different offerings, different ways to buy.
They get better informed. They get more demanding. They decide to shop at
different places; they start buying shirts through catalogs, jewellery from a TV
network, vacations online. They want bigger cars. Then smaller. Then really
bigger. Then really fuel-efficient. They pledge allegiance to product brands.
Then store brands. Then no brands. They want carbohydrates, then they don't.
They want big cars; then small, thrifty ones; then humongous ones--then decide
they value fuel-efficiency and ecological virtue after all.Every time customer
priorities shift, our business design is at risk. Our value proposition gets a little
fuzzier, a little out of focus. We lose a little business from a few customers;
they decide to peel away once in a while and buy a couple of items from
another supplier. Then we start losing customers altogether. (That's a little more
worrisome. But at least we've still got our old reliables.) Then we start losing
our most profitable customers, the 20% that generate more than 80% of the
income.
Proactive customer service is an approach to customer support in which
businesses make the first move to help customers. These businesses go out of
their way to first find potential problems and then resolve them before
customers need to ask for help.
From a customers’ perspective, this is considered very thoughtful and customers
appreciate it. The proactive approach saves time for customers that would be
spent on finding a solution. It also allows customers to reach the value that your
business is offering that much quicker.
Proactive customer service will allow you to build customer loyalty through
amazing customer service experiences.
Page of30 32
R
Rekindling Scientific Temper through Synergy between
Academics and Industry.
Adam Smith in the 18th century and Alfred Marshall in the 19th century
addressed the question of how investments in “research” influence the wealth
of nations. However, Dusgupta and David, (1994) point out that academic
institutions operate based on the principles of ‘public science and emphasises
the free, rapid and impartial dissemination of research results, whereas the
industry operate under the principles of ‘private science search for the
appropriation and commercial exploitation of knowledge. Given these
differences, very close interaction between the two spheres can ultimately be
‘costly’ in terms of the production and diffusion of knowledge. These claims
bring forward three questions
In a modern economy it is essential to transform scientific research into
competitive advantages. In the US, extensive universities - industry
collaboration and the ensuing transfer of scientific knowledge has been viewed
as one of the main contributors to the successful technological innovation and
economic growth of the past three decades (Hall, 2004). At the same time, the
insufficient interaction between universities and firms in the EU is, according to
a report of the European Commission (1995) itself, one of the main factors for
the poor commercial and technological performance of the EU in high-tech
sectors.
• Education and research is a necessary but not sufficient condition for the
spectacular feats of industrial development in the 20th century.
• The intricacy of the relationship between educational activities and the
industrial form of economic growth is confirmed by the technical economics
literature.
• Economists have demonstrated that both individuals and societies gain from
the investments made in education and academic research.
That education and academic research is an essential ingredient of prosperity is
at once obvious and contentious. Obvious because any person able to read this
text knows what a difference it makes in their lives to have gone to school, to
have learned to read, write and calculate.
Page of31 32
CONCLUSION
Given India’s economic success over the past two decades, the country’s foreign
policy makers increasingly need to confront the question of whether and how
India will contribute to dealing with global challenges such as climate change,
piracy, failed states and economic volatility. India’s growing might will fuel
others’ expectation for India to engage in global burden sharing. Unless it is
ready to do so, India risks losing the support of developing countries that have
long formed the core of India’s
Followership, as they no longer see India defending poor countries’ interests at
the international level. It constructive role in the G20 clearly shows that India
does not have to be obstructionist. Instead of focusing on status, as it has often
done in past decades, India’s foreign policy is likely to become more pragmatic.
Page of32 32

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NCYM 2017 report by VSTPS

  • 1. NCYM 2017 THE NEW WORLD ORDER-ASIAN ECONOMIES IN LEADERSHIP ROLES: CAN INDIA EMERGE AS SUPERPOWER Prepared By: Neeraj Tiwari Madhuraj Jha Anuj Verma NTPC VINDHYACHAL DISTRICT : SINGRAULI, MP-486885
 Page of1 32
  • 2. CONTENTS 1. Introduction 2. Asian Economies in the Leadership Role. 3. Factors affecting the Rise of India as Superpower. 3.1. Burgeoning Indian Economy. 3.2. Demographic Dividend. 3.3. Growth in Agriculture and Manufacturing Sector. 3.4. Infrastructure Development and Digitisation. 3.5. Influence through Diplomacy and Soft Power. 3.6. Internal Peace and Security of Borders. 3.7. Building World Class Institutions and Indian MNC’s. 3.8. Diversification in Energy Policy and Rise of Renewables and Project SHARE 5.Indian Model Of Management : AVATAR 6.Conclusion. Page of2 32
  • 3. Introduction Golden Sparrow- the name you must have definitely heard. Such was the glory of Indian Economy before the advent of the British. The share of the Indian Economy in the World was more than 23% which plummeted to below 2% by the time they left courtesy to the policies of exploitation and subjugation they implemented.They made India their cash down by dumping their manufactured Manchester goods here perishing the Indian cotton textile industry. We have paid profoundly for our oppression.More than sixty years ago, in the parched summer of 1948, the Indian nation, then newly-born, was struggling for its very survival. It was pierced from the left by the Communists, and pinched from the right by Hindu extremists. And there many challenges plaguing us. Eight million refugees had to be resettled; provided with land, homes, employment and a sense of citizenship. Five hundred princely states had to be integrated, one by one, a process that involved much cajoling of egos and coercion. Our grandfathers know how uncertain our future looked in the summer of 1948. The question then being asked everywhere was “Will India Survive?‟ But the wheels of fortune have turned and economic sunrise of India has begun since the last two decades or so. Now, the fearful query of the past has been replaced by a far more hopeful one, namely “Will India Become the Next Superpower?‟ The Indian economy today has emerged as the fastest growing major economy in the world. And despite global economic volatility, India is expected to grow at more than 7 per cent in real terms.India is emerging as a force unrelenting, unparalleled and formidable in the Global arena.We have already surpassed Great Britain in the world economy GDP ranking and chasing China. At a time when global economic growth is bleak and facing the risk of downside, International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) world economic outlook released this April a forecast of India to grow at 7.2% in 2017-18. Prior to this, Asian Development Bank’s (ADB) annual report also suggested that India will grow at 7.4% in 2017-18- so IMF’s prediction is fairly in line with ADB. Similar projections have been made by global rating agency Moody’s in its Global Macro Outlook 2017-18 at 7.5% and by Fitch at 7.1%.Our own Economic Survey released this February estimates our growth at 6.5% while China facing the slowest rate since 1990. Page of3 32
  • 4. ASIAN ECONOMIES IN THE LEADERSHIP ROLE I. Capitalising on Recent Gains The cloud of depression that forecasted the Global economy after Financial Crisis of 2008 has the only silver lining in the form on Asia. Asia’s impressive elevation into the world economy has been one of the most striking global developments of the last generation. In that relatively short time, many countries across this vast and diverse region have achieved economic “miracles,” and several have become powerhouses of the global economy. This economic transformation has supported social development. Over the past 35 years, this region has been the world’s leader in reducing poverty.2 Education and health outcomes have improved significantly. People’s living standards have been raised. Asia has also become a byword for innovation. Each day, almost everyone around the world is touched by Asian technology. Cars, smartphones and televisions spring to mind—but think also of biotechnology, commercial satellites, and renewable energy. This increased interconnectedness means that Asia now affects the world more than ever before; by the same token, Asia is now more deeply affected by global economic developments than ever before—and must respond to them. In China: improving the allocation of credit to help rebalance the economy away from debt-led investment. In Japan: tackling dual labor markets, liberalising product markets, and reforming corporate governance. In India: enhancing the efficiency of product markets, encouraging private investment, and improving infrastructure. II. Tectonic shifts in Asian Geopolitics. Three important events are having a significant influence on existing security arrangements in Asia Pacific. The result of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), led by President Xi Jinping, US President Trump’s abandonment of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP),and UK rattling with BREXIT issue is that many Asian states are re-orientating their long-held policy towards the two giants. Page of4 32
  • 5. Trump’s ‘America First’ policy, and Xi’s policy of ‘deep pockets’ for China’s neighbours have already made several US loyalists recalibrate their alliances. The starkest shift has come from Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte. Despite having long-standing issues with China after a standoff over Scarborough Shoals in the South China Sea, and the Philippines being one of the US’s trusted allies in Asia, Duterte has publicly shunned the US and signed multiple bilateral treaties with China. II.1 The Samaritan Chinese China has donated a $7.35 million shipment of more than 3,000 assault and sniper rifles along with ammunition to the Philippines, weapons that are likely to be used in Mindanao against radical militants. Even five years ago, the world would have expected the US and the West, not China, to have supported the Philippines’ fight against radical militants. Thailand and Malaysia, too, have been pulled closer towards China’s orbit of influence.If the Philippines, Malaysia, Thailand, Laos and Cambodia also move closer to China, this all has the potential to shake the fundamentals of the geopolitical orientation of ASEAN nations. II.2 ASEAN - Sighting Autarky When ASEAN was formed 50 years ago, there were two driving forces. One was to make economic gains through better trade among member states, and the second was to form an alliance against the spread of communism in the region, led by the then Soviet Union and Mao’s China. Today the Soviet Union has ceased to exist, and communism is dead. China is not interested in exporting ideology, but in expanding trade in the region. Contention in the South China Sea has exposed potential rifts, with countries like Cambodia reluctant to upset China, while others express support for the ruling of the International Arbitration Court in the Hague. As it celebrates 50 years, ASEAN leaders can’t deny or defer forever the inevitable geopolitical realities and the implications for the bloc’s ability to remain united over the next 50 years in the fast-changing security dynamics of the region. Page of5 32
  • 6. 4.1 Burgeoning Economy Before we start talking about what India can do to get there, we have to start with a fundamental question — what exactly is an economic superpower? The term is used to describe a country that has achieved unmatched dominance. For example, Britain’s march forward during the Industrial Revolution established it as an economic superpower between the mid 1700’s and the mid 1800’s. To get there, Britain completely overhauled its economy from one that was agriculture-based to one that was industrial-based. The combination of new technology, new factories, and better transportation enabled Britain’s economy not just to thrive, but to skyrocket.The International Monetary Fund (IMF) described the Indian economy as the "bright spot" in the global landscape. The economy of India is the sixth-largest in the world measured by nominal GDP and the third-largest by purchasing power parity (PPP).According to the IMF, India's growth is expected to rebound to 7.2% in the 2017–18 fiscal and 7.7% in 2018–19.[44] Page of6 32 India China
  • 7. FIG 2.RANKINGS BY MAJOR INSTITUTIONS AND THEIR REPORTS (2017) In 2003, Goldman Sachs predicted that India's GDP in current prices would overtake France and Italy by 2020, Germany, UK and Russia by 2025 and Japan by 2035, making it the third-largest economy of the world, behind the US and China. India is often seen by most economists as a rising economic superpower which will play a major role in the 21st-century global economy INSTITUTIONS INDIA CHINA US GDP RANKING(WEF) 7 2 1 GDP RANKING PPP BASIS (IMF) 4 1 2 EASE OF DOING BUSINESS 130 78 8 GLOBAL COMPETITIVENESS INDEX 55 28 3 HDI 131 90 10 GDP by sector Agriculture: 16.5%
 Industry: 29.8%
 Services: 45.4% (2016 est.) Page of7 32
  • 8. 4.2 Demographic Dividend One of India’s most promising economic features is its large working-age population. Yet if India doesn’t find jobs for its young people, this boon will quickly turn into a powder-keg, as evinced by the recent agitations of unemployed Jats in Haryana. In 2015, less than 13 per cent of the population was over 55 years of age. 40.6 per cent of the population was in the prime working-age category of 25–54 years old. And 28.5 per cent of the population was 14 years and under, indicating that there is still plenty of labor in the pipeline. Four mechanisms for growth in the demographic dividend.During the course of the demographic dividend there are four mechanisms through which the benefits are delivered. 1. The first is the increased labor supply. However, the magnitude of this benefit appears to be dependent on the ability of the economy to absorb and productively employ the extra workers rather than be a pure demographic gift. 2. The second mechanism is the increase in savings. As the number of dependents decreases individuals can save more. This increase in national savings rates increases the stock of capital in developing countries already facing shortages of capital and leads to higher productivity as the accumulated capital is invested. 3. The third mechanism is human capital. Decreases in fertility rates result in healthier women and fewer economic pressures at home. This also allows parents to invest more resources per child, leading to better health and educational outcomes. 4. The fourth mechanism for growth is the increasing domestic demand brought about by the increasing GDP per capita and the decreasing dependency ratio Factors favourable for india : 1. 65 percent of population below 35 years of age. 2. Massive training program through Skill india mission for capacity building and making them able to be the part of global workforce. 3. Largest English speaking population We touched on this point briefly when we talked about intellectual capital. After all, India’s middle class now has access to great education opportunities, so there is no shortage of intellectual capital in this group. However, the middle class is such a major part of India’s economy in other ways that it merits its own independent discussion. Page of8 32
  • 9. 4.3 Growth In Agriculture and Manufacturing Sector China is currently one of the world’s economic superpowers, and it’s no coincidence that manufacturing makes up a whopping 34% of China’s gross domestic product (GDP). In fact, China is responsible for nearly 14% of the entire world’s manufacturing. India, on the other hand, doesn’t play a big role in global manufacturing. Even though manufacturing accounts for 16% of India’s GDP, the Indian manufacturing sector is only responsible for a tiny 1.8% of the world’s manufacturing output. Manufacturing holds a key position in the Indian economy, accounting for nearly 16 per cent of the real GDP in FY12 and employing about 12 per cent of the country’s labour force. Growth in the sector has been strong, outpacing overall GDP growth since the past few years. For example, while real GDP expanded at a CAGR of 8.4 per cent over FY05–12, growth in the manufacturing sector was marginally higher at around 8.5 per cent over the same period. Consequently, the sector’s share in the economy increased (albeit marginally) to 15.4 per cent from 15.3 per cent.The manufacturing sector has been plagued by an all-or-nothing philosophy for years. India is home to a variety of giant manufacturing enterprises, but there are very few smaller enterprises. If more small enterprises popped up, it would create more manufacturing jobs and turn India into a legitimate manufacturing option for other countries around the world — both of which would boost the overall economy. Manufacturing plays a crucial role in absorbing surplus agriculture labour The manufacturing sector is critical for the economy’s growth as it employs 12.0 per cent of the country’s labour force as well as provides a transitional opportunity to the labour force in agriculture. In addition, the sector has a multiplier effect for job creation in the services sector. According to National Manufacturing Policy 2011, every job created in the manufacturing sector creates two-three additional jobs in related activities. MSMEs are critical for the country’s economic and social development. They significantly contribute to the GDP, manufacturing output, exports and employment. In India, MSMEs account for eight per cent of GDP, 45 per cent of manufacturing output and 40 per cent of exports. Also, the labour-capital ratio is much higher in MSMEs than larger industries. Furthermore, they are considered budding grounds for entrepreneurs, thus encouraging innovation in the country. Hence, it is imperative to focus on growth in MSMEs that, in turn, would provide a fillip to the manufacturing sector as well as raise the level of employment. to labour laws. It is also important to increase the availability of bank credit for the SME MSME sector. Page of9 32
  • 10. 4.4 Growth in Infrastructure and Digitisation India is an infrastructure-famished country - be it roads, ports, railways, airports, power generation or distribution facilities, irrigation facilities, access to telecom infrastructure or even the very basic housing and sanitation infrastructure. Some people also prefer to call it an implementation deficit. But the terminology makes little difference to the reality one looks at every day. First, improvements will have to be undertaken in existing infrastructure be it railway corridors, roads, electricity generation and distribution, ports, airports, dams, irrigation, sanitation, access to telecom and the like. Secondly, and also equally critically, there should be the creation of new infrastructure in places and areas where there is a plaguing infrastructure deficit. If one compares India's infrastructure development with stellar successes like China, we find that we have lagged. Consider the railroads' development in China. China had close to 23,000 route km of railways in 1951 compared with the commensurate figure of 53,500 Km for India. Infrastructure sector is a key driver for the Indian economy. The sector is highly responsible for propelling India’s overall development and enjoys intense focus from Government for initiating policies that would ensure time-bound creation of world class infrastructure in the country. Infrastructure sector includes power, bridges, dams, roads and urban infrastructure development. In 2016, India jumped 19 places in World Bank's Logistics Performance Index (LPI) 2016, to rank 35th amongst 160 countries. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) received in Construction Development sector (townships, housing, built up infrastructure and construction development projects) from April 2000 to March 2017 stood at US$ 24.3 billion, according to the 2,500 crore (US$ 0.37 billion), primarily to expand capacity at 12 airports to accommodate increase air traffic, as per the Chairman of AAI. The Government of India and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) have signed US$ 375 million in loans and grants for developing 800 kilometer (km) Visakhapatnam- Chennai Industrial Corridor, which is the first phase of a planned 2,500 km East Coast Economic Corridor (ECEC). Road Ahead Sweden is interested in smart cities development in India and has put forward a Common Plan of Action for developing sustainable and environment-friendly public transport solutions and solid waste management for the smart cities under development. Page of10 32
  • 11. DIGITISATION’S ECONOMIC IMPACT Impact on GDP per capita: Our analysis reveals that an increase of 10 percent in a country’s digitisation score fuels a 0.75 percent growth in its GDP per capita. As an economic accelerant, digitisation therefore is 4.7 times more powerful than the 0.16 percent average impact of broadband deployment on per capita GDP, according to several previous studies. Additionally, the economic effect of digitisation accelerates as countries move to more advanced stages of digitisation. Digitally constrained economies receive the least benefit, largely because they have yet to establish an ICT ecosystem that can capitalise on the benefits of digitisation. Impact on unemployment: Digitisation creates jobs, with a 10 point increase in the digitisation score leading to a 1.02 percent drop in the unemployment rate. This is 4.6 times greater than the effect that the widespread adoption of broadband has on reducing unemployment; broadband cuts the unemployment rate by just 0.22 percent. We are witnessing an unprecedented growth in connectivity , data and broadband which is accelerating India’s transition to a knowledge economy. Digitisation, which harnesses the power of connecting people, process, data and things, will transform our industries and change the way we work and how governments serve its citizens. A report by the Columbia University has identified that digitisation has a larger contribution to GDP than stand-alone technologies. It states that a 10 point increase in digitisation yields a 0.74% increase in per capita GDP. Given the huge divide between rural and urban India and the digital haves and have- nots, digitisation will be key to maintaining India’s global competitiveness, GDP growth, innovation and creating employment. The government’s digitising India vision has been designed around three core areas: Digital infrastructure for every citizen of India, with an aim to drive the enablement of urban and rural digital infrastructure primarily to provide eGovernance mGovernance to citizens. Governance and service on demand, which will focus on driving the modernisation and re-engineering of government processes and services to simplify governance. Digital empowerment of citizens, with the goal to address the current gap of the digital “haves“ and “have-nots“ by developing skills and capacities of not only the citizens but also of the government agencies and employees at large. Page of11 32
  • 12. 4.5 Influence through Diplomacy and Soft Power Over the last decade, many scholars and analysts have tried to assess India’s emergence as a major actor in the global arena by looking at such material indicators as economic growth, military expansion or demographic evolution. As a consequence, these accounts have mainly overlooked New Delhi’s increased emphasis on developing its ‘soft power’ credentials by using the attractiveness of Indian culture, values and policies. Indian diplomats like Sashi Tharoor have recently argued that if India is now perceived as a superpower, it was not just through trade and politics but also through its ability to share its culture with the world through food, music, technology and Bollywood. In the past decade, the country wielded its soft power in a more systematic way in the practice of diplomacy. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, in power since 2014, is becoming known for his passionate use of India’s soft-power assets through both an effective media management strategy and an intelligent use of social media. This Brief finds that while these efforts have helped improve India’s image before the international community, the effect in terms of stronger relations with other countries has remained rather limit. • Several initiatives have been launched to push India to the forefront of the international community, including the creation in 2006 of a public diplomacy division within the Ministry of External Affairs, the worldwide expansion of the Indian Council for Cultural Relations (ICCR), the Ministry of Tourism’s ’Incredible India’ campaign, and the work of the Ministry for Overseas Indians. • These efforts have not only helped emphasise the social and cultural assets of India abroad, but they also support the country’s major foreign- policy initiatives such as its strategic aid and trade partnerships in Africa . After all, the promotion of business and trade, together with the creation of employment opportunities, are key components of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s diplomacy efforts. • To be sure, soft-power diplomacy is not the only tool in the government’s arsenal for improving the country’s image. Other serious campaigns—for instance, to combat corruption and crime—are also enhancing the outsider’s view of what India is, and what it can be as a leader in global politics. Effective media management and an intelligent use of social media are among the elements of PM Modi’s strategy. Page of12 32
  • 13. 4.7 Internal Peace and Security of Borders Power is a notoriously elusive concept. The question of how one can define, list, and identify the different facets of national power is one that has long preoccupied social scientists. The Indian Armed Forces are the military forces of the Republic of India. It consists of three professional uniformed services: the Indian Army, Indian Navy, and Indian Air Force. India has third largest Armed Forces with strength of over 1.3 million active personnel and 1.2 reserve personnel.
 
 The Army of India, as the Indian army was called under British rule before 1947, played a crucial role in checking the advance of Imperial Japan into South Asia during World War II. It also played a leading role in the liberation of Bangladesh in 1971.
 
 The Indian Air Force is the fourth largest air force in the world. India recently inducted its second indigenously manufactured combat aircraft. India is also developing the fifth generation stealth aircraft.
 
 The Indian Navy is the world's fifth largest navy. It is considered to have blue- water capabilities with sophisticated missile-capable warships, aircraft carrier, minesweepers, advanced submarines and the latest aircraft in its inventory, along with a significant use of state of the art technology that is indigenously manufactured. It operates two aircraft carriers and also plans to induct the INS Vikrant by 2018 followed by a larger INS Vishal.
 
 India is currently one of the world's largest arms importers, spending an estimated US$16.97 billion in 2004. India has made military technology deals with the Russian Federation, the U.S., Israel and the EU. 
 The Indian Army controls the land based ballistic missiles. At present these are of three types—the Agni 1, the Agni 2, Agni 3 and there is one more which is Prithvi missile family’s army variant- the Prithvi 1. The other variants from the series of Agni missile family are still under development which includes the latest ones named as the Agni 4 and Agni 5. The estimated range of Agni 4 is 4000km whereas that of Agni 5 is 5500-6000 km. Agni 6 is also under development and has an estimated range of 8000-12000 km. the latest one is going to have some special features like MARV( Maneuverable Reentry Vehicles) or MIRVs (Multiple Independently Targetable Reentry Vehicles). Page of13 32
  • 14. 4.8 Building World Class Infrastructure and Indian MNC’s. There are several reason why the West continues to score well in terms of soft power, the most obvious being that western countries have a pluralist political culture where having dissident views, will not, by and large, end up with one spending a rather long-term in prison or worse. But another reason – clearly connected – has to do with its open system of higher education. Here even the much-maligned US continues to have great magnetic pull, nowhere more so than in China itself judging by the enormous number of Chinese students who every year seek a place in US institutions of higher learning. Many of them may in the end return to China. However, they clearly believe that getting an education in a US college will improve their job prospects in an increasingly tough Chinese job market.Nor is this temporary “brain drain” a mere accident of history. Indeed, one of the more obvious signs of continued western and American strength is its university sector.Other countries and continents obviously have universities. But very few of them rank especially high in international terms.The BRIC countries in particular seem to face almost insuperable difficulties in raising standards. Brazil and India for example have no universities in the top 100, Russia only one, and China a mere 5 – three of these being in Hong Kong. The United States meanwhile is home to 8 of the top 10 ranked universities in the world, 37 of the top 50, and 58 of the top 100. Even the United Kingdom does well having 17 ranked universities compared to a total of 13 in the whole of Asia. If standards in higher education are still being set in the West, the same can also be said about the rules and associated institutions that govern international relations more generally. Admittedly, many of the most important institutions in the world today are not functioning as well they might: and over time, it seems clear that changes in the international economy will have to be reflected in the way the world is managed. The fact remains however that nearly all of the key rules governing the global economy, and most of those dealing with critically important issues such as nuclear non-proliferation, trade liberalisation, women‟s rights, and the protection of intellectual property rights, have been laid down by, and are still more likely to be upheld by, countries in the West. This in large part has much to do with their still very high dependency on western markets and western Foreign Direct Investment. But more importantly, it is because they realise that their own success over the past twenty five years has been in some part determined by them adopting broadly western economic rules. This is not to play down their own contribution to their own success. Nor should we assume that countries like China and India have adopted a pure western model. Page of14 32
  • 15. 4.6 Diversification in Energy Policy and Rise of Renewables Energy security is critical for a country like India with a population of 1.2 billion and one that aspires to be in the league of superpowers.Energy demand has been growing steadily, only to be expected of a growing economy of the size of India. However, supply is unable to keep pace with it, thus pushing the nation to the brink of an energy crisis. Demand-Supply Gap During the Eleventh Five Year Plan, nearly 55,000 MW of new generation capacity (electricity) was created, yet there continued to be an overall energy deficit of 8.7% and peak shortage of 9.00%, according to a Central Statistics Office report. Resources currently allocated to the energy sector are not sufficient to narrow the demand-supply gap. As a result, our dependence on imports is increasing. Not to forget, India is the fourth largest primary energy consumer after China, USA and Russia. Besides, it accounts for more than 4.6 % of the total global annual energy consumption. If India is to maintain an average growth rate of about 8% in the coming years, its energy resources will continue to feel the strain. Challenges related to energy security Low number of proven hydrocarbon reserves and lack of interest of foreign players in exploration and production is having a negative impact on India’s energy sector. Only 22% of our sedimentary basins have been explored for energy resources. The rest are oscillating between ‘exploration initiated’ to ‘poorly explored’. More oil and gas imports: The volume of gas imports has been steadily increasing in India, all the more after the once lucrative KG-D6 basin began to see a dip in its production. Our crude oil import bills too are inflating. There is a “Green Energy Revolution” underway in India that can increase prosperity for millions of poor families by harnessing the abundant and clean energy of the sun. With the right policies in place India can easily become a world leader in solar energy. This solar endeavour could also help address acute power shortages, and make a real difference in slowing the pace of climate change. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has outlined his vision for increasing India’s renewable energy capacity five-fold from 30 GW to 175 GW, including a boost in solar power generation from 20 GW to 100 GW. The plan is to achieve these targets by 2022. But to do so, India needs a National Energy Policy, Regulatory Programs and innovative financing mechanisms that encourage the development Page of15 32
  • 16. of distributed energy, particularly, applications that combine solar generation with energy storage. For India, a combination of solar power and energy storage is the answer to true energy independence. For its part, the Indian government has taken several measurable steps toward improving infrastructure and power reliability but, more needs to be done — and fast. Micro-grids can be used to take substantial electrical load off the existing power grid and so reduce the need for building new or expanding existing transmission and distribution systems. Energy security in Power sector and need for the diversification In Power sector, we are self-reliant, As the demand -supply gap is narrowed down to just 0.3% last fiscal. We are also engaging in Power trading with our neighbours like Nepal, Bhutan and Bangladesh. NTPC being the largest state-owned power company is excelling the sector by generating 25% of the power produced in the country. It has a subsidiary named as NTPC Vidyut Vyapar Nigam that is engaging in power trading business within the country and across the borders. It has a JV with Bangladesh Power development cooperation named as BIFPCL (Bangladesh- India Friendship power corporation limited) which is setting up a project in Bangladesh. So, power sector can emerge as a sector in which exports can be realised and if Indian government through diplomacy is able to integrate the Indian Grid with the Grid of other subcontinental Neighbours then certainly we can tap the enormous potential lying in the subcontinent and can once again raise our PLFs from 55% to 90%. The main challenge in this sector in rapid diversification. In accordance with the ratification of the ratification of the Paris Climate deal (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Paris summit), GOI have given its commitments to contain the climate change. India have pledged to reduce the Carbon emission by 33-35% by 2030 from 2005 levels. Moreover, we have also committed to generate over 40% of our power from renewable sources of energy. Out of the envisioned 175 GW, 100 GW will come from solar because of geographical location of India. India is a tropical country and thus have a higher solar insolation. Thus, it becomes imperative to tap this blessing and in follow up of this, India have orchestrated the formation of International Solar Alliance(ISA) at United Nations. It is an alliance with other tropical nations to boost up the Solar infrastructure in their respective countries by a collective effort. Headquarters of ISA is in India. Another 60 GW will come from the wind energy as 9 of our states are coastal and have a lot of untapped wind potential. India also needs to move towards other unconventional sources like Tidal, Geothermal and Biomass. “The Ministry of New and Renewable Energy’s target to install 10,000 micro-grid/ 500 MW of micro and mini-grids will offer an additional opportunity to the tune of Page of16 32
  • 17. Rs3,300 crore for battery manufacturers. Batteries are a critical component of micro/mini-grid systems, since 100% backup is often required to supply electricity to rural households during evening hours,” said the analysis. INDIA- A RENEWABLE SUPERPOWER The Total Grid Capacity of India is 330 GW as on 31 July 2017. Renewable power constitutes 30.8% of total installed capacity. India have a large potential of renewable energy i.e. Solar, Wind and Small Hydroelectricity. India’s geographical location of being a tropical country ensures that we have large amount of Solar Insolation which can be tapped to transform the electricity sector of our country. With 300 to 330 sunny days a year, India can generate 5000 Trillion KWh of Solar energy a year. In other words, India could easily install around 1000 GW of solar generation capabilities- equivalent to 4 times the current peak Power Demand (250 GW), that too using just 0.5% of the country’s area. Therefore, Economist and activist Jeremy Rifkin, said that “India is the Saudi Arabia of the renewable energy Sector”. GOI has set up an ambitious target of 175 GW by 2022 (100GW Solar, 60 GW of Wind, 10 GW of wind and 5GW of small hydroelectric sector). If India aspires to be a superpower in energy sector, then in addition to the capacity addition, we must create demand for renewable energy. And with proper demand supply measures partnered will envisioned supply will drive India to become a Renewable Superpower. • With a better R&D and scientific research, the solar power tariffs have reduced from Rs 12/ unit to Rs 3.15/unit, thus ensuring that renewable power can now compete with conventional sources of energy and will drive the Global power sector demand. • Serious implementation of RPO (Renewable purchase obligation) mechanism would serve the objective to develop renewable energy as a commercially viable alternatives. Purchasing of Renewable energy certificates(RECs) in lieu of purchasing renewable power will also serve the purpose. • Renewable energy will play a key role as an off-grid solution to power demand. • Government of India have come up with its project “Power for All by 2019” in which to ensure the last mile connectivity Renewable energy will play a significant rule. NTPC is the flag bearer for government in this area and have installed decentralised distribution systems of 340 KW capacity benefitting 2280 households with a population of 12500 in 4 states. Page of17 32
  • 18. • New Net metering policy of GOI will usher a new era of demand side management and smart infrastructure. It will boost the rooftop solar capacities. • One of the major constraint of lack of demand is the financial health of DISCOM’s. The UDAY scheme have ushered a new era in which debt trapped DISCOM’s are reviving and becoming financially capable. • A lot of developments are going on in the areas of Smart Grids, Micro/Mini Grids, Battery Storage systems and Electric vehicles which will also give boost to the demand of renewable energy. a) Smart Grid- Smart grid is an electricity network in which electrical grid is combined with digital infrastructure to ensure an efficient grid operation and 2-way communication b/w the customer and the utility. The smart grids are reliable, efficient, economical and environmentally suitable and have a greater tendency to assimilate the renewable power. b) Micro/Mini Grids- There is a Draft National Policy of RE based micro/mini grids to usher the last mile connectivity of unconnected rural areas. Mini grids are the grids in which renewable energy generators are greater than 10 KW and targets a set of customers via Public Distribution Networks. Micro Grids are just like mini grids with generator capacities less than 10 KW. c) Battery Storage Systems- Battery storage systems are essential for the growth of renewable energy sector in India as it does not have enough gas based power to stabilise the grid during peak demand operations. India will soon have its first grid scale battery storage system of 10MW developed by TATA power distribution company, Delhi. d) Electricity vehicle segment- Electric vehicles have low costs, less maintenance and battery will work well with Solar and Wind as the energy storage devices. India is adding 50% more Solar and Wind than the U.S currently has installed and we can proudly believe that “India is the poster boy for the clean energy” and certainly will be a renewable superpower. Page of18 32
  • 19. PROJECT SHARE (SOUTH ASIAN HARMONY FOR ADVANCEMENT AND REDEPLOYMENT OF ENERGY) Acute energy poverty is one of the principal challenges in South Asia. Resource scarcity and a burgeoning population make electrification a particularly daunting task. Given the high variance in distribution of natural resources, regional trade of electricity is an obvious solution, as the International Energy Agency pointed out in its World Energy Outlook 2013. Power-starved South Asia can do much better if the countries improve cooperation on buying and selling electricity and move from bilateral agreements to a regional agreement Electricity cooperation between South Asian countries has been the topic of discussion on many platforms such as the South Asia Regional Initiative for Energy Integration (SARI/EI), Asian Development Bank funded projects such as cross border transmission line between Indian and Nepal. The project highlights the economic and reliability benefits of electricity trading among the countries in South Asia encompassing the sub region containing Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. The project builds up on the study complied in 2013 built on the SAARC (South Asia Association of Regional Cooperation) Regional Energy Trade Study (SRETS) conducted by Asian Development Bank (ADB). Such electricity trading would allow utilities to optimally utilise the available resources to satisfy demand across the whole sub region. Maldives was not considered in the study due to its remoteness from the rest of the South Asian landmass and hence the difficulty in providing an electricity transmission interconnection. The study also considered the possibility of South Asian region benefitting from electricity trade with Central Asian region bordering Afghanistan. It specifically examined the costs and benefits of six ongoing or planned cross-border electricity transmission interconnections at the time. These are (i) Bhutan-India grid reinforcement. (ii) India-Nepal 400 KV transmission link (iii) India-Sri Lanka proposed HVDC transmission link which includes a submarine cable component. (iv) Bangladesh - India HVDC transmission link commissioned in October 2013. (v) India-Pakistan 220 kilovolt and 400 kilovolt transmission links (vi) India-Pakistan 400 kilovolt transmission link coupled with CASA 1000 transmission link. (vii) India- Myanmar New grid – Gateway to the South East Asian Nations. Page of19 32
  • 20. The project clearly demonstrates that large scale transmission interconnection capacity would assist development of large hydropower potential in Nepal and Bhutan which can then be transferred to India resulting in a significant drop in fossil fuel use, power shortages and Carbon Dioxide (CO2) emissions in the region. This study is a unique effort to illustrate how important these benefits can be even with minimum interventions. The benefits in terms of CO2 reduction have also been quantified. It was estimated that the benefits of each of these interconnections range from $ 105 million to $ 1840 million under different scenarios. The benefit to cost ratios of the interconnections are extremely attractive and in the range from 3.7 to 102. The carbon dioxide reduction due to hydropower generation transferred from Bhutan to India alone would be about 10 million tons in 2016/17 and can be as high as 40 million tons annually by 2020/21. The project emphasising the need to construct these transmission interconnections in an orderly manner, extending the existing power exchanges in India to accommodate regional trading and strengthening legal and regulatory regimes. In this regard because the of geographical location and the sheer size of the power system with a significant appetite for enormous quantities of power. India must assume the role of a central hub in driving power trading the region, at least initially. A market-driven process for cross-border power trading together with a regulatory framework that enforces a strong economic discipline would maximise the benefits from the development of interconnection projects. Bilateral cooperation brighter There has been movement in the direction of bilateral trade of electricity, for both generation transmission. Bilateral trades involving India have been primarily hydropower focussed, and there is still large untapped hydropower potential in the Himalayan rivers, mainly in Bhutan and Nepal. Only 2% of the potential hydropower in Nepal and 6% in Bhutan have been tapped so far, according to the latest studies. Given the large demand for electricity, particularly in Pakistan and Bangladesh, electricity trade is the clear answer, either through regional cooperation or bilaterally. However, even bilateral electricity trade between countries cannot be conceived without Indian involvement. As a result of its location, India is a key player in achieving any electricity cooperation in the region. "The power ministry has already prepared the guidelines for cross border trade of electricity and the Central Electricity Regulatory Commission has come up with the Page of20 32
  • 21. draft regulations," said a power industry source with knowledge of the development. "The draft guidelines offer scope of cross-border trade through power exchanges and once the regulations are firmed up, the exchanges would come into play. Some progress is likely to be expected over the next few months," he added. The power ministry estimates greater possibilities of trade by 2036, with India importing more from Bhutan and Nepal and exporting around 2,000MW to Bangladesh and 1,000MW to Sri Lanka. "At present, the cross-border transactions in electricity between India and the neighbouring countries of Bhutan, Bangladesh, Nepal and Myanmar are taking place essentially through long-term, medium-term and short-term contracts under bilateral memorandum of understanding (MoU)/power trade agreements (PTA). "It is envisaged that the new regulations to be framed by the commission will further harmonise the extant laws/rules/regulations governing cross border trade in electricity and create a common platform for all the stakeholders," the CERC draft report said. The exchanges, meanwhile, are expecting monthly spot trades to remain firm with market clearing prices stabilising in the coming months. Using power trade as a tool for diplomacy, India spread goodwill in its neighbourhood extending up to Myanmar by exporting 5,798 MU (million units) during the April 2016-February 2017 period. This is roughly 4% more than 5,585 MU it imported from Bhutan, data from Central Electricity Authority (CEA) shows.
 
 India started cross-border trade in electricity since the mid 80's, essentially with importing power from hydel projects build in Bhutan and supplying small quantities to Nepal as part of government-to-government deals. Since then, the country has established a mesh of cross-border interlinks for supplying to Nepal and Bangladesh. On an average, India has been importing 5,000-5,500 MUs from Bhutan, while exporting 190 MW to Nepal over 12 cross-border lines from Bihar and UP and 600 MW to Bangladesh through two interconnects from Bengal and Tripura. As a result of rising cross-border wheeling capacity, export to Nepal and Bangladesh have showed an increase of 2.5 and 2.8 times, respectively, in the last three years.
 
 The development also coincides with efforts to export coal to Bangladesh — an indication of the situation changing from shortage to surplus. India's power plants were facing acute fuel shortage till three years back. But steps taken by the Narendra Modi government in the last three years have brought it to a position Page of21 32
  • 22. where it needs to look at exports, even if in small quantities, to maintain pace of mining and reduce stocks piling up at mines. India has exported around 5,798 million units to Nepal, Bangladesh and Myanmar. This is 213 million units more than the import of around 5,585 million units from Bhutan. The export to Nepal increased 2.5 times and export to Bangladesh has grown by 2.8 times in the last three years. Sri Lanka is making a big push into the energy sector, with focus on renewable energy, and that is an opportunity for India. Crucial to India’s involvement in Sri Lankan energy projects is the construction of a transmission line – an undersea power cable – between the two countries, for which talks have been going on for some years now. A transmission line could make two-way flow of energy possible. Energy costs in Sri Lanka is quite high – average tariff hovers over 15 Sri Lankan rupees (or Rs. 6.45), with the tariffs going as high as 45 LKR. Of the 5.5 million customers, 2.8 million consume less than 90 kWhr a month and fall into the lower slab of rates.Ceylon Electricity Board pays around LKR 22 for wind and solar power, (though, a recent wind capacity auction hammered down the tariff to LKR 12.29 a kWhr.) As such, there is potential for Sri Lanka to buy cheaper power from India, for which talks are on. Conversely, India could benefit if the wind-rich Mannar region could be developed to its full potential. A 100 MW wind project in Mannar in the North West (where the potential is estimated to be 5,000 MW), a programme to spawn distributed installation of 60 solar plants of 1 MW capacity each across the country, another clutch of 100 MW of solar plants including one floating plant on a reservoir and a million roof top solar plants aggregating to 1 GW are in various stages of roll-out.The island is suitable for both wind and solar, said a spokesman of Gamesa. At the windfarms in Kalpatiya and Puttalam on the western coast, wind speeds are of the order of a very fecund 8 metres a second; likewise the good insolation at Hambantota on the southern rim is estimated to yield at least 2.2 million kWhr of electricity a MW of solar capacity. COUNTRIES POWER DEMAND POWER SUPPLY DEFICIT NEPAL 1400 MW 850 MW 550 MW BANGLADESH 6500 MW 5000 MW 1500 MW SRI LANKA 5000 MW 4000 MW MYANMAR 20000 Gwh 13000 Gwh Page of22 32
  • 23. The New Digital Age Indian Management Model AVATAR LEADING TO THE REINCARNATION OF THE GOLDEN SPARROW REINCARNATION OF INDIA Page of23 32
  • 24. Attributes of AVATAR A Augmenting Growth with Neighbourhood Empowerment and Environmental Sensitisation. V Value Addition for Sustainability and Customer Delight. A Accelerating through Automation and Innovation Policy Making. T Traversing Conservatism by Assimilating Ethos - Personal, Professional and Spiritual. A Anticipating shifts in Customer Preferences and offering Proactive solutions. R Rekindling Scientific Temper through Synergy between Academics and Industry. Page of24 32
  • 25. A Augmenting Growth with Neighbourhood Empowerment and Environmental Sensitisation. The most pertinent question being asked by everyone in the private sector is what can we as a business do to minimise the government interference in their functioning ?Now if we adopt an optimistic approach, the answer is very easy. Let us first understand why does the government interfere ? Economic interventions in our market-based economies include targeted taxes, minimum wage legislation, trade unions, contracting preferences, minimum price supports, price caps, production quotas, import quotas, and tariffs regulations. I. Arguments for government intervention to improve equality Government interferes it feels there is accumulation of wealth in few hands. Government interferes if it feels there is victimisation of few. Government interferes if it feels there is marginalisation of poor. In a free market, there tends to be inequality in income, wealth and opportunity. Private charity tends to be partial. Government intervention is necessary to redistribute income within society. I.1 Diminishing marginal returns to income. The law of diminishing returns states that as income increases, there is a diminishing marginal utility. If you have an income of £2 million a year. An increase in income to £2.5 million gives only a marginal increase in happiness/utility. For example, your third sports car gives only a small increase in total utility. However, if you are unemployed, and surviving on £50 a week. A 10% increase in income gives a substantial boost in living standards and quality of life. Therefore, redistributing income can lead to a net welfare gain for society. Therefore income redistribution can be justified from a utilitarian perspective. I.2 Fairness. In a free market, inequality can be created, not through ability and handwork, but privilege and monopoly power. Without government intervention, firms can exploit monopoly power to pay low wages to workers and charge high prices to consumers. I.3 Inherited wealth. Often the argument is made that people should be able to keep the rewards of their hard work. But, if wealth and income and opportunity depend on being born into the right family, is that justified? A wealth tax can reduce the wealth of the richest, and this revenue can be used to spend on education for those who are born in poor circumstances. Page of25 32
  • 26. I.4 Rawls social contract. Rawls’ social contract stated that the ideal society is one where you would be happy to be born in any situation, not knowing where you would end up. Using this social contract, most people would not choose to be born in a free market because the rewards are concentrated in the hands of a small minority of the population. II.Government intervention to overcome market failure II.1 Public goods. In a free market, public goods such as law and order and national defence would not be provided because there is no fiscal incentive to provide goods with a free rider problem (you can enjoy without paying them). Therefore, to provide public goods like lighthouses, police, roads, e.t.c it is necessary for a government to pay for them and out of general taxation. see: public goods II. 2 Merit goods / Positive externalities. Goods like education and health care are not strictly public goods (though they are often referred to as public goods). In a free market, provision tends to be patchy and unequal. II. 3 Negative externalities like Environment and climate change. The free market does not provide the most socially efficient outcome, if there are externalities in consumption and production. By contrast, other forms of energy production, like solar power, are environmentally friendly and have a positive externality. II. 4 Regulation of monopoly power. In a free market, firms may gain monopoly power; this enables them to set higher prices for consumers. Government regulation of monopoly can lead to lower prices and greater economic efficiency. III. Macro Economic Intervention In recessions, there is a sharp fall in private sector spending and investment, leading to lower economic growth. If the government also reduce spending at the same time, there is an even bigger fall in economic growth and collapse in confidence. In a deep recession, governments can borrow from the private sector and spend the money to employ unemployed resources. If there is a collapse in the money supply, there may be a role for the Central bank or Government to print money. Similarly, the government may need to prevent an economic boom and explosion of credit. So if we become proactive and taken preemptive measures then we can be partially certain of reduced intervention from the government machinery. Page of26 32
  • 27. V Value Addition for Sustainability and Customer Delight This proposes an approach to fathom corporate contributions to sustainability. Whenever benefits exceeds the cost, value is added. The approaches to measure corporate sustainable performance should take into account not not only external costs caused by environmental and social damage or focus on the ratio between value creation and source consumption but also sustainable measures based on opportunity costs. We need to focus on how much more value is created because a company is more efficient than a benchmark and the resources are allocated to a company and not to benchmark companies. The concept of strong sustainability requires that each form of capital is kept constant. It measures whether a company creates extra value while ensuring that every environmental and social impact is in total constant. The three dimensions of sustainability must be taken care of- economic, environmental and social aspects. CUSTOMER DELIGHT Deciding on the appropriate level of customer service remains an important area of research. In the current service environment where competition is ubiquitous, the importance of identifying and retaining key customers is of paramount importance. As such, the concept of customer delight, which refers to a profoundly positive emotional state experienced by the customer, has developed. Unfortunately, much remains unknown regarding customer delight. In response to this dearth of research, the current study focuses on delight from multiple perspectives utilising multiple methods. Thus, this dissertation adds to the emerging knowledge base of customer delight in three areas: first, assessing what delight represents to the employee; second, investigating its impact on the employee; and third, examining what delight represents to the customer. Page of27 32
  • 28. A Accelerating Through Automation And Innovation Policy Making Three different aspects of private sector involvement such as the stages of policy-making, types of involvement and extent of involvement. In the design stage , in India the private sector is comparatively much less involved than its counterparts in any other country. In the implementation stage, some joint activities are common for all countries.During the evaluation stage, India employs fewer instruments than any other country. The differences are in the quality and frequency of use of these instruments. In the stages of instigation and design, the other countries use many more instruments, which might be an indication of their ongoing learning process. Altogether, in India the private sector involvement in R&D and innovation policy shows very differing patterns to the policy-making practice of Western European countries.Both the public and the private sectors still have to learn how to work together in participatory policy-making' to be able to form relevant and useful R&D and innovation policy. Page of28 32
  • 29. T Traversing Conservatism by Assimilating Ethos - Personal, Professional and Spiritual To be conservative is to be disposed to think and behave in certain manners; it is to prefer certain kinds of conduct and certain conditions of human circumstances to others; it is to be disposed to make certain kinds of choices. And my design here is to construe this disposition as it appears in contemporary character, rather than to transpose it into the idiom of general principles. Personal ethos is your personal framework for making moral choices. A key element of a personal ethos is authenticity. Knowing where you stand on morality, and why you stand there, is an essential step towards making better choices.The successful millennial needs a purpose. Why do we do what we do? What is it that drives us? What are we willing to do to accomplish our definition of success? Many Millennials struggle with finding direction. They seem to wonder what their path in life should look like. We believe that one of the more important things that a Millennial can do is work through and write out their own ethos. Although it is very common to hear about the professional ethos and to use this concept in the corporate world, nonetheless there is a forgotten and proper idea given by the necessity of fitting the concept into its proper measurement and context. Professional ethos involves integrity, moral consistency, value transparency, embracing an attitude of service. Contrary to one popular interpretation of this word this does not presuppose or demand that all are religious. Rather, we interpret the word 'spiritual' to relate to all aspects of the non-tangible realities of our existence. For all, it will include an awareness that within ourselves we possess a spark of light that becomes a flame as we consciously reflect on the awe and wonder of our world, and our own advantaged place within it.This conscious awareness of our place in the world results in an unwillingness to be content with simply enjoying our own comfortable privilege. It drives us to embrace a mind-set that sees that with privilege comes responsibility and with tremendous privilege comes tremendous responsibility. One has to rise above Sectarianism, casteism , regionalism and communalism to bring about significant development in the country. Page of29 32
  • 30. A Anticipating shifts in Customer Preferences and offering Proactive solutions Perhaps the most insidious strategic risk companies today face is decimation of the customer base by shifts in behaviour, preferences, and demographics. These shifts may happen gradually or literally overnight. Either way, they can destroy a business design. Customers are people--unpredictable, irrational, emotional, curious, and highly prone to change. Customers can't keep still. They re-segment themselves from "product buyers" to "value buyers" to "price buyers" and then back again. Their priorities change from "quality" to "price" to "solutions" to "style" to "brand." They get richer. They get poorer. They get excited by and attracted to different styles, different offerings, different ways to buy. They get better informed. They get more demanding. They decide to shop at different places; they start buying shirts through catalogs, jewellery from a TV network, vacations online. They want bigger cars. Then smaller. Then really bigger. Then really fuel-efficient. They pledge allegiance to product brands. Then store brands. Then no brands. They want carbohydrates, then they don't. They want big cars; then small, thrifty ones; then humongous ones--then decide they value fuel-efficiency and ecological virtue after all.Every time customer priorities shift, our business design is at risk. Our value proposition gets a little fuzzier, a little out of focus. We lose a little business from a few customers; they decide to peel away once in a while and buy a couple of items from another supplier. Then we start losing customers altogether. (That's a little more worrisome. But at least we've still got our old reliables.) Then we start losing our most profitable customers, the 20% that generate more than 80% of the income. Proactive customer service is an approach to customer support in which businesses make the first move to help customers. These businesses go out of their way to first find potential problems and then resolve them before customers need to ask for help. From a customers’ perspective, this is considered very thoughtful and customers appreciate it. The proactive approach saves time for customers that would be spent on finding a solution. It also allows customers to reach the value that your business is offering that much quicker. Proactive customer service will allow you to build customer loyalty through amazing customer service experiences. Page of30 32
  • 31. R Rekindling Scientific Temper through Synergy between Academics and Industry. Adam Smith in the 18th century and Alfred Marshall in the 19th century addressed the question of how investments in “research” influence the wealth of nations. However, Dusgupta and David, (1994) point out that academic institutions operate based on the principles of ‘public science and emphasises the free, rapid and impartial dissemination of research results, whereas the industry operate under the principles of ‘private science search for the appropriation and commercial exploitation of knowledge. Given these differences, very close interaction between the two spheres can ultimately be ‘costly’ in terms of the production and diffusion of knowledge. These claims bring forward three questions In a modern economy it is essential to transform scientific research into competitive advantages. In the US, extensive universities - industry collaboration and the ensuing transfer of scientific knowledge has been viewed as one of the main contributors to the successful technological innovation and economic growth of the past three decades (Hall, 2004). At the same time, the insufficient interaction between universities and firms in the EU is, according to a report of the European Commission (1995) itself, one of the main factors for the poor commercial and technological performance of the EU in high-tech sectors. • Education and research is a necessary but not sufficient condition for the spectacular feats of industrial development in the 20th century. • The intricacy of the relationship between educational activities and the industrial form of economic growth is confirmed by the technical economics literature. • Economists have demonstrated that both individuals and societies gain from the investments made in education and academic research. That education and academic research is an essential ingredient of prosperity is at once obvious and contentious. Obvious because any person able to read this text knows what a difference it makes in their lives to have gone to school, to have learned to read, write and calculate. Page of31 32
  • 32. CONCLUSION Given India’s economic success over the past two decades, the country’s foreign policy makers increasingly need to confront the question of whether and how India will contribute to dealing with global challenges such as climate change, piracy, failed states and economic volatility. India’s growing might will fuel others’ expectation for India to engage in global burden sharing. Unless it is ready to do so, India risks losing the support of developing countries that have long formed the core of India’s Followership, as they no longer see India defending poor countries’ interests at the international level. It constructive role in the G20 clearly shows that India does not have to be obstructionist. Instead of focusing on status, as it has often done in past decades, India’s foreign policy is likely to become more pragmatic. Page of32 32