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Biofuel Opportunities June, 2009 STRICTLY PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL
Agenda 1 Introduction and status of EU biofuels market 3 2 Identifying biofuels opportunities 14
Agenda 1 Introduction and status of EU biofuels market 3 2 Identifying biofuels opportunities 14
The EU biofuels market is policy-driven ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],EU BIOFUELS MARKET CURRENT FUTURE Support to agriculture, energy security and climate change behind biofuels policies
The EU incentives have been met with an enthusiastic response in biodiesel … Source: EBB, Europa, CCC EU 25 totals (Million Tonnes) Capacity 2005: 5.1 U/C 2.6  Planned: 7.9 Announced: 2.4 Total: 18.0 2010 demand (MS targets) 11.2 2010 demand (5.75%) 10.5
…  and, to a lesser extent, in bioethanol Source: EBB, Europa, CCC EU 25 totals (Million Tonnes) Capacity 2005: 1.5 U/C 1.9  Planned:  2.8 Announced: 3.3 Total: 9.6 2010 demand (MS targets) 7.3 2010 demand (5.75%) 10.7
The structure of capacity ownership in the markets reflects historical policy incentives Current capacity: Biodiesel Current capacity: Bioethanol ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Industry offers growth, but fundamentals are tough ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The market environment is becoming more challenging ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Feedstock has long been flagged as an issue for biodiesel 33% 34% 71% 79% 121% 2010 volume implied by 5.75% target 2005 EU25 biodiesel production 1 1 Source: Frost & Sullivan Sources for chart: UKRA, US Department of Agriculture, CCC estimates Vegetable oil and animal fat production, 2004/5 EU25 target % of world market
Recent commodity price dynamics are testing for biodiesel Source: Reuters
Although ethanol does not face the same availability problems, current pricing is challenging Source: Reuters Source:
Recent market sentiment has been poor ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: Reuters 1  Including BKN Biokraftstoff (Feb)  Issued European biofuels IPOs IPO pricing trends Market update Recent biofuels IPO performance Company Date Million € Petrotech Nov '06 95 Verbio Oct '06 264 Cropenergies Sep '06 200 BDI Sep '06 83 Biopetrol Nov '05 74 EOP Sep '05 26 Initial price range (rebased)
Agenda 1 Introduction and status of EU biofuels market 3 2 Identifying biofuels opportunities 14
What makes a good biofuels opportunity? 1. Lower unit capital costs ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
What makes a good biofuels opportunity?  2. Lower short-run marginal costs ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
“ Good” project schematic Refinery/ distribution Port Crop-growing hinterland Integrated industrial site to share services and use co-products Project
What makes a good biofuels opportunity?  3. Product differentiation ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
What makes a good biofuels opportunity?  4. Control over value chain ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Upstream Downstream Strategies Strategies
What makes a good biofuels opportunity? 5. Company characteristics ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Size matters – but who wins? Feedstock supply Crushing Biodiesel refining Bioethanol production Distribution and blending Marketing Participants The biofuels value chain Agriculture majors Independents Oil majors Chemicals majors Fuel traders/ distributors Supermarkets ?
There is still space for new, independent projects ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Biodiesel SWOT analysis ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities Threats
Bioethanol SWOT analysis ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities Threats
Contact  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Renewables | Finance | Advisory

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Introduction To Biofuels

  • 1. Biofuel Opportunities June, 2009 STRICTLY PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL
  • 2. Agenda 1 Introduction and status of EU biofuels market 3 2 Identifying biofuels opportunities 14
  • 3. Agenda 1 Introduction and status of EU biofuels market 3 2 Identifying biofuels opportunities 14
  • 4.
  • 5. The EU incentives have been met with an enthusiastic response in biodiesel … Source: EBB, Europa, CCC EU 25 totals (Million Tonnes) Capacity 2005: 5.1 U/C 2.6 Planned: 7.9 Announced: 2.4 Total: 18.0 2010 demand (MS targets) 11.2 2010 demand (5.75%) 10.5
  • 6. … and, to a lesser extent, in bioethanol Source: EBB, Europa, CCC EU 25 totals (Million Tonnes) Capacity 2005: 1.5 U/C 1.9 Planned: 2.8 Announced: 3.3 Total: 9.6 2010 demand (MS targets) 7.3 2010 demand (5.75%) 10.7
  • 7.
  • 8.
  • 9.
  • 10. Feedstock has long been flagged as an issue for biodiesel 33% 34% 71% 79% 121% 2010 volume implied by 5.75% target 2005 EU25 biodiesel production 1 1 Source: Frost & Sullivan Sources for chart: UKRA, US Department of Agriculture, CCC estimates Vegetable oil and animal fat production, 2004/5 EU25 target % of world market
  • 11. Recent commodity price dynamics are testing for biodiesel Source: Reuters
  • 12. Although ethanol does not face the same availability problems, current pricing is challenging Source: Reuters Source:
  • 13.
  • 14. Agenda 1 Introduction and status of EU biofuels market 3 2 Identifying biofuels opportunities 14
  • 15.
  • 16.
  • 17. “ Good” project schematic Refinery/ distribution Port Crop-growing hinterland Integrated industrial site to share services and use co-products Project
  • 18.
  • 19.
  • 20.
  • 21. Size matters – but who wins? Feedstock supply Crushing Biodiesel refining Bioethanol production Distribution and blending Marketing Participants The biofuels value chain Agriculture majors Independents Oil majors Chemicals majors Fuel traders/ distributors Supermarkets ?
  • 22.
  • 23.
  • 24.
  • 25.