Slides for the 2016 SXSW Music presentation and discussion at http://schedule.sxsw.com/2016/events/event_PP53896. ow can we get 20/20 vision about alternate futures in music and set our sights on directions of desired change? While are fighting across blogs and trade press about streaming, location-based data, and social value changes, throwing around selective data, we are light on seeing the Big Picture(s) or the drivers toward uncertain possible futures. This presentation wrestles with how time, place, data, connectivity, rights politics, live events, and oligopolies may change the way we create, collaborate, share, and live off of music revenue streams — and how we can cooperate to shape intended outcomes.

1. #mus

2. #music2020
Sam Kling
• SESAC, SVP/Creative Operations
• @klingosaurus
Chris Castle
• Christian L Castle Attorneys,
Founder
• @musictechpolicy
Dave Bakula
• Nielsen Entertainment, SVP/Analytics and Client
Relations
• @davebakula
Gigi Johnson
• UCLA Center for Music Innovation
• @MusicInnovUCLA

3. WE ARE ALL FUTURISTS

4. #music2020
Core Future
Challenges
• What can my company or
artist do to thrive in
2020?
• What skills and capacities
need to change?
• Who will be "winning"
and how do we work with
them?
• What will an Artist’s Life
be like?
Flickr/joceykinghorn cc 2.0

5. #music2020
Futures are Co-Created

6. #music2020
How can we impact
these possible
futures?
Can we together
Shift Direction?
Flickr/familymwr cc 2.0

7. #music2020
“Basically, I equate ‘free’ with the
decline of the music business," Morris
declared. "Why should anyone pay for
anything if they can get it for free? In
certain instances, it’s worth a
discussion. But in general, free is
death."
Doug Morris, Sony Music,
March 2015

8. #music2020
“The future is here…it is
just not evenly
distributed."
• Kevin Kelley
As quoted by Kevin Kelley

9. #music2020
“What does a fish know about the
water in which he swims all his life?”
Albert Einstein, 1936 (German); 1950 (English)
“We don’t know who it was
discovered water, but we’re pretty
sure it wasn’t a fish.”
John Culkin, 1966

10. #music2020
Past futures -- how we got
here?

11. #music2020
Our massively connected
world . . .
11

12. #music2020
12
. . . connection is driving new collaboration
and expectations of “presence"

13. #music2020
Forces of Change
Music
2000 &
2010
Music
2015 &
2016
Music
2020
Sharing
Economy/
SaaS
Smartphones
&
Geolocation
Digital
Oligopolies
Changing
Live Events
Global
Seismic
Shifts
Customer
as Data
Product
Silos of
Streaming

14. #music2020
1999 AND NAPSTER:
A PIVOT
•14
0
5000
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US REVENUE MM
CD CD Single Cassette
Cassette Single LP/EP Vinyl Single
Music Video DVD Audio SACD
Other Tapes 8 - Track Download Single
Download Album Kiosk Download Music Video
Ringtones & Ringbacks SoundExchange Distributions Paid Subscriptions
On-Demand Streaming (Ad-Supported) Synchronization
LP
CD
8 Track
Cassette
Source:
RIAA

15. #music2020
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
US Recorded Music Unit Sales, MM
CD CD Single Cassette
LP/EP Vinyl Single Music Video
DVD Audio SACD Download Single
Download Album Kiosk Download Music Video
Ringtones & Ringbacks Paid Subscriptions
Ringtones
CDs
Digital Download Singles
Source:
RIAA

16. #music2020
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
US Recorded Music, Inflation-Adjusted
Revenue (MM)
CD CD Single
Cassette LP/EP
Vinyl Single Music Video
DVD Audio SACD
Download Single Download Album
Kiosk Download Music Video
Ringtones & Ringbacks SoundExchange Distributions
Paid Subscriptions On-Demand Streaming (Ad-Supported)
Synchronization
Source:
RIAA
CDs

17. #music2020
Shift from Ownership to Access

18. #music2020
Shared Shifting Relationships with
Music
Half =
Video

19. #music2020
Warped Scale: Misleading in Shift
from Ownership to Access
X150=
units

20. #music2020Source: Information is Beautiful.net

21. #music2020Source: Information is Beautiful.net

22. #music2020Source: Information is Beautiful.net

23. #music2020

24. #music2020
Current pivots, signals, and
drivers
•

25. #music2020
Levers and Drivers/STEP
• Societal
S
• Technological
T
• Economics
E
• Political
• Policy / RegulationP

26. #music2020
New Business
Models
Time Place
Data
Tech & Societal: Data

27. #music2020
Behavior as Value:
“We” are the Product
Engagement and Predictive
metrics, not just reporting
SuperFans, 80/20, and what we can
do about it
New Super-influencers and folks in between

28. #music2020
Engagement and Predictive Metrics,
Not Just Reporting
• Shazam - radio
• Pandora AMP - Pandora -- "thumb moments"
• Next Big Sound — brands as data clients —
challenges for Brands in Engagement
• Gracenote & Beatport & Spotify -- New genres

29. #music2020
http://everynoise.com/engenremap.html

30. #music2020
New Super-influencers and Folks in Between
• Playlisters – the new "album"
• Social Media Marketing — social engineering —
retargeting and shaping beliefs and behavior
• Ownership of behavioral patterns and data

31. #music2020
6% to Inform the 94%:
Community, Engagement, Decisions
Recorded Music
Performance, Synchronization,
Merchandise

32. #music2020
Changing Nature of Place, Performance, and
Engagement
• Changing of live experiences — iBeacons, LISNR
• Changing dynamics of live events in an era where
kids’ aren’t getting drivers licenses — festival
growth and big data in live experience
• Knowing WHERE you listening and understanding
the Where — different regional tastes (Shazam,
Pandora)
• Adjacency to purchase -- scraping psychographic
and patterns of behavior -- aggregate and
trackable individual

33. #music2020
Changing Interfaces / Places of
Creation and Consumption

34. #music2020
Future Levers and Drivers/STEP
• Societal
S
• Technological
T
• Economics
E
• Political
• Policy / RegulationP

35. #music2020
Competing Potential Futures
• Personal assistants, Google Go/Siri, pre-selecting
• Mobile dominance and adjacency
• Wearables
• Home-based data environments
• Audio plugged in workforce -- individual audio
environments
• "Post" smartphone – Echo/voice interfaces;
gestural and context-driven
• New combinations and disrupters

36. #music2020
Alternate Narratives
Minstrels
• Musicians in poverty at .2 cents/play
• Perpetual touring
Data-
driven
• Renting audience attention and data – digital
sheep
Plug In
• Micropayments of music
• Immersive preprogrammed work soundscapes

37. #music2020
How "we" can act
• Policy -- look at shared goals, change perceived
barriers
• Partner and participate together
• Pilot and create shared labs/co-labs
• "Narratives" -- working together to change
choices, actions, and beliefs
• "Bet" on new ecosystems -- facilitate, fund,
connect

38. #music2020
Next steps? Invitation to Co-Create
• Invitation to Music-2020.org global conversation
• Delphi methods research project on possible
futures
• LA discussions on Music 2020 in May and October
• Speak, share, or send a great undergraduate in
your life to UCLA’s Music Innovation Summer
Institute

39. #music2020
Sam Kling @Klingosaurus
Chris Castle @musictechpolicy
David Bakula @davebakula
Gigi Johnson @MusicInnovUCLA
music-2020.org
innovation.schoolofmusic.ucla.edu
39