Seeing Around Corners: How To Spot Inflection Points Before They Happen Rita’s talk will provide an overview of 8 practices that leaders can utilize to increase their awareness of shifts in the business environment/pending inflection points and help you to capitalize on them. Having mechanisms for direct, personal experience at the edges when the organization will often try to prevent you from seeing the reality Having diverse perspectives weighing in on key decisions Empowering and entrusting smaller agile teams rather than committees Having mechanisms and resources available to place little bets on experiments Regularly ‘get out of the building’ to gain perspective rather than being chained to your desk Structuring incentives that promote truth-telling rather than the opposite Avoiding denial of negative or disconfirming evidence William Gibson, a science fiction writer, famously said “the future is already here – it just isn’t evenly distributed yet” – so talk to the future (example: if you want to know what 20 year olds are going to be like in 10 years, talk to 10 year olds today!)

1. Seeing Around Corners: How to
Spot Inflection Points in
Business Before They Happen
Rita Günther McGrath

2. //
October 16, 2018

3. //
A long, slow slide…stock price

4. //
A long, slow slide - revenue

5. //
Meanwhile…

6. //

7. Strategic Inflection Points

8. Direct-to-
Consumer
brands have
traditional
competitors
reeling

9. 9
Software enables access to assets, not ownership
of assets

10. The very notion of
“industry” creates
strategic blind spots

12. Instead, think of “jobs to be done”
With credit to Clayton Christensen

13. What jobs do clothes do for teens?
13

14. And now…?
14

15. A contributing element…
15

16. But there are always winners!
16

18. Do I have mechanisms to come in
direct contact with the ‘edges’?
❑

19. //
Am I regularly gaining exposure to
diverse perspectives?
PAGE 19

20. //
Am I trusting and empowering small,
agile teams?
PAGE 20

21. //
Do I have mechanisms for fostering
‘little bets’?
PAGE 21

22. //
Do I regularly get out of the building to
see what’s going on?
PAGE 22

23. //
Are incentives aligned with hearing
uncomfortable news?
PAGE 23

24. //
Am I making sure I’m not in denial?
PAGE 24

25. //
Go to where the future lives
PAGE 25
Trinity and Loom bands

26. Summary
1. Do I make sure I have direct contact with the ‘edges?’
2. Do I incorporate diverse perspectives in my decisions?
3. Do I empower small, agile teams?
4. Do I make resources available for little bets?
5. Do I regularly get out of the building?
6. Does my organization reward truth-telling?
7. Have I checked that I am not in denial?
8. Do I deliberately seek out aspects of the future that are here
today?

27. Strategy
+
Innovation
+
Digital

28. Concluding Thoughts
▷ Strategy isn’t what it was…
▷ Inflection points don’t happen instantly – this creates the
opportunity
▷ Being aware of what is going on at the edges is a first step
to seeing around corners

29. Thank You!
Rita McGrath
rdm20@gsb.columbia.edu
@rgmcgrath
www.ritamcgrath.com
29