The first of a number of post election analysis lectures I will give.

1. THE 2008 ELECTION
W H AT H A P P E N E D A N D W H Y
M AT T K L I N K
NOVEMBER 12
www.cerrell.com
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2. FRAMING T H E ELECTION
F I R S T E L E C T I O N S I N C E 1 9 5 2 T H AT N E I T H E R T H E P R E S I D E N T
N O R I N C U M B E N T W A S A C A N D I D AT E
L E A D I N G C A N D I D AT E S W E R E B O T H U . S . S E N AT O R S
T H E F I R S T E L E C T I O N S I N C E 1 9 6 0 T H AT A S I T T I N G S E N AT O R
WA S E L E C T E D P R E S I D E N T ( J F K )
B O T H M A J O R P A R T Y C A N D I D AT E S W E R E B O R N O U T S I D E O F
T H E C O N T I N E N TA L U N I T E D S TAT E S
O B A M A - H O N O L U L U, H AWA I I
M C C A I N - PA N A M A C A N A L Z O N E
H A D M c C A I N B E E N E L E C T E D, H E W O U L D H AV E B E E N T H E
O L D E S T U . S . P R E S I D E N T TO H O L D O F F I C E
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3. E L E C T I O N P R E D I C TO R S
M I S S O U R I B E L LW E T H E R : S i n c e 1 9 0 4 , t h e s t a t e h a s v o t e d f o r
the eventual winner in all but one election
HALLOWEEN MASKS: The candidate whose face has outsold his
opponent’s has won since the concept was introduced
WA S H I N G TO N R E D S K I N S : B e t w e e n 1 9 4 4 a n d 2 0 0 0 , t h e
outcome of the last home game before Election Day presaged
the winner
• If the team won, the incumbent par ty’s candidate would win
• If the team lost, the opponent would win (pattern broken in 2004)
• November 3, 2008: Pittsbur gh 23, Washington 6 (Home)
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4. GENERAL ELECTION
THE NUMBERS
N AT I O N A L R E S U LT S :
OB AMA 52.6% MCC AIN 46.1% (OB AMA +6.5)
65,431,955 57,434,084
E L E C TO R A L C O L L E G E :
M C C A I N / PA L I N 1 6 2
OB AMA/BIDEN 365
(Missouri still unknown)
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5. GENERAL ELECTION
THE CONGRESS
2006 2008
HOUSE: 226(D) 195(R) 256(D) 175(R) (-20)
2006 2008
49-49-2 57(D) (+6) 40(R) (-6)
S E N AT E :
ALASKA- BEGICH (47%) STEVENS (48%)
G E O R G I A - M A RT I N ( 4 6 % ) CHAMBLISS (50%) -- RUNOFF
M I N N E S O TA - F R A N K E N ( 4 2 % ) COLEMAN (42%) -- RECOUNT
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6. A L O O K AT T H E
E L E C TO R A L M A P
1996
C L I N TO N / G O R E 3 7 9 DOLE/KEMP 159
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7. A L O O K AT T H E
E L E C TO R A L M A P
2000
GORE/LIEBERMAN 267 BUSH/CHENEY 271
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8. A L O O K AT T H E
E L E C TO R A L M A P
2004
K E R RY / E D W A R D S 2 5 2 BUSH/CHENEY 286
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9. A L O O K AT T H E
E L E C TO R A L M A P
2008
OBAMA/BIDEN 365 M c C A I N / PA L I N 1 6 2
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10. A L O O K AT T H E
E L E C TO R A L M A P
2 0 0 8 M A P N OT I N M c C A I N ’ S FAV O R
M U S T- W I N S TAT E S ( 3 o f 4 )
• O h i o, Pe n n s y l v a n i a , F l o r i d a & I n d i a n a
(McCain lost all)
D E M O C R AT I C P I C K - U P S
• Virginia, Nor th Carolina, Colorado, Nevada,
Indiana, New Hampshire
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11. FRAMING THE
GENERAL ELECTION
E X T R E M E LY U N P O P U L A R P R E S I D E N T A N D
CONGRESS
2006 2008 CHANGE
CONGRESS: 30% 12% -18%
52% 26% -26%
PRESIDENT:
SOURCE GALLUP
- I T ’ S T H E E C O N O M Y, S T U P I D
WA R I N I R A Q -
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12. FRAMING THE
GENERAL ELECTION
M c C A I N / PA L I N
McCAIN’S PERCEIVED STRENGTHS:
• Experienced, international issues, terrorism,
capable commander in chief
• Energize the base
McCAIN’S PERCEIVED WEAKNESSES:
• Distr usted by Republican base (Palin Selection)
• Not strong on economic issues
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13. FRAMING THE
GENERAL ELECTION
M c C A I N / PA L I N
HOW McC AIN MUST POSITION OB AMA
• Make Obama unsafe
• Highlight inexperience and lack of legislative
record
• Po r t r ay a s u l t r a - l i b e r a l , t a x - a n d - s p e n d D e m o c r a t
• If all else fails, stress the need for a divided
government
• . . . bu t : GALLUP - 57% to 38% of voter s want divided
government...but 53% to 41% want a democrat in Congress
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14. FRAMING THE
GENERAL ELECTION
M c C A I N / PA L I N
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15. FRAMING THE
GENERAL ELECTION
M c C A I N / PA L I N
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16. FRAMING THE
GENERAL ELECTION
OBAMA/BIDEN
OBAMA’S PERCEIVED STRENGTHS:
• D o m e s t i c i s s u e s , e m p a t h y, a b i l i t y t o b r i n g a b o u t
change
OBAMA’S PERCEIVED WEAKNESSES:
• Experience
• Foreign policy & national secur ity (Biden Selection)
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17. FRAMING THE
GENERAL ELECTION
OBAMA/BIDEN
HOW OB AMA MUST POSITION MCC AIN
• McCain Presidency = 4 more year s of Bush
• Change ver sus status quo
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18. FRAMING THE
GENERAL ELECTION
OBAMA/BIDEN
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19. FRAMING THE
GENERAL ELECTION
OBAMA/BIDEN
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20. FRAMING THE
GENERAL ELECTION
OBAMA/BIDEN
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21. E L E C T I O N A N A LY S I S
THE ECONOMIC GAME-CHANGER
• John McCain leads post-convention
c e a s e s o n S e p t e m b e r 1 7 t h - A lead he would
never regain
• McCain suspends campaign/threatens
debate cancellation on September 26th
• McCain unable to win in debates
• Obama aver ages +9-point among RVs over
McCain from October to Election Day
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22. E L E C T I O N A N A LY S I S
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23. E L E C T I O N A N A LY S I S
MONEY IS THE
M OT H E R ’ S M I L K O F P O L I T I C S
• Obama raises $700MM
• 1.7MM contributors
• 93% less than $100
• Small doors and on-line presence
• The end of public financing of presidential
campaigns?
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24. E L E C T I O N A N A LY S I S
E M P O W E R I N G O R D I N A RY P E O P L E
O B A M A U N D E R S TA N D S S O C I A L M E D I A
• 130MM people vote on Election Day
(highest total ever)
• A b i l i t y t o i d e n t i f y, e d u c a t e a n d a c t i v a t e o n - l i n e
• Mobile updates+ social networ ks
• Obama was/is EVERYWHERE
“In a connected world, power shift
to those able to connect ”
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25. E L E C T I O N A N A LY S I S
T H E PA L I N FAC TO R
A good choice or not?
• McCain/Palin - Alaska Governor a vir tual unknow
at time of announcement (51% never heard of her
o n 0 8 / 0 3 U S A T O D AY )
• Dayton, OH announcement day after Democratic
Convention ends
• Motivates Republican base
• Palin out-draws McCain on campaign stops
• Po p u l a r w i t h H i l l a r y s u p p o r t e r s ?
• Gibson/Couric inter views
• Ability to reach independents and swing voter s
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26. E L E C T I O N A N A LY S I S
WHERE DO WE GO
F R O M H E R E
D O E S 2 0 0 8 S I G N I F Y A N D E L E C TO R A L R E -
ALIGNMENT?
WILL OBAMA MAKE GOOD AND TRANSCEND
PA RT I S A N P O L I T I C S ?
W I L L YO U N G , I N F R E Q U E N T A N D M I N O R I T Y
VOT E R S R E M A I N E N G AG E D I N T H E P RO C E S S ?
C A N O B A M A P O S S I B LY L I V E U P T O H I S
C A M PA I G N P RO M I S E S ?
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27. T H A N K YO U
M AT T K L I N K
NOVEMBER 12
www.cerrell.com
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