Invited keynote presentation at Fern Universitat in Hagen, Hagen, Germany, 22nd June 2018.

1. Professor Mark Brown
Director, National Institute for Digital Learning
Dublin City University
Hagen, Germany
22nd June 2018
The Future of Distance Education:
Mind the Gaps

7. 2019 Conference
Dublin

8. Professor Mark Brown
Director, National Institute for Digital Learning
Dublin City University
Hagen, Germany
22nd June 2018
The Future of Distance Education:
Mind the Gaps

10. https://pixabay.com/en/train-tracks-walking-journey-alone-1081672/
@mbrownz

11. Rhetoric Reality Gap

12. State of Art vs. State of Actual Gap

13. Near vs. Far Gap

14. Real knowledge is to know the
extent of one’s ignorance
https://pixabay.com/en/train-tracks-walking-journey-alone-1081672/
Confucius

16. E

17. “It will not be possible to satisfy the rising
demand for Higher Education, especially in
developing countries, by relying on traditional
approaches.”
(Sir John Daniel, 2013)
Past President,
Commonwealth of Learning;
Previous Vice-Chancellor,
UK Open University

19. 1. Far futures
2. Near futures
3. Better futures
Outline….

21. 1. Far futures

24. 20+ years ago…

25. In 1976…
89% market share

26. • Globalization
• Population mobility
• Demographic changes
• Changing nature of work
• Growing demand for higher education
What are some of
the major change forces?

27. What are some of
the major change forces?
• Openness movement
• Unbundling movement
• Impact of AI on education
• Impact of BIG data on education
• Rising costs of higher education

28. STEP 1:
Identify the major trends and change forces
STEP 2:
Identify the high impact (critical) uncertainties
STEP 3:
Create the axes of uncertainty
STEP 4:
Develop the scenario characteristics for each quadrant

29. • Where are we
going?
• Where should
we go and why?
• How can we get
there?
2008

30. May 2018

34. 2017

35. http://www.nearfutureteaching.ed.ac.uk

38. Different interest groups
and stakeholders are borrowing
the same ‘languages of
persuasion’ to legitimize very
different agenda

39. “It is theory that
decides what we can observe”

40. Knowledge Economy
• Threat
• Unbundling
• Re-imagination
Crisis •
Disruption •
Democratization •
TWO MAJOR WORLDVIEWS
COMPETING
DIGITAL
FUTURES

41. “And we’ve got to bring on the competition — open the
schoolhouse doors and let parents choose the best school for
their children. Education reformers call this school choice, charter
schools, vouchers, even opportunity scholarships. I call it competition
— the American way.”
Donald Trump, in
his book “The
America We
Deserve”

42. Knowledge Economy
• Threat
• Unbundling
• Re-imagination
Crisis •
Disruption •
Democratization •
TWO MAJOR WORLDVIEWS
Knowledge Society
COMPETING
DIGITAL
FUTURES

43. “Higher education has a crucial role to play in laying the foundations of
a society that is more inclusive, participatory and
equal...” The President said “…the role of the university in
enabling citizens to develop the tools to address the great challenges
of our time – global poverty, climate change and
sustainability – was vital.

45. 2. Near futures

47. 2018

48. 2018
https://www.icde.org/models-for-online-open-flexible-and-technology-enhanced-higher-education

49. “Resilience requires
adaptation and evolution to new
environmental conditions, but retains core identity”
(Weller & Anderson, 2013, p.55).

50. Off Campus
in Class
Off Campus
out of Class
On Campus
in Class
Formal
On Campus
out of Class
Physical Virtual
Learning
Ecology
Informal

52. Deep
Interaction
Digitally Rich
Resources
The
Connected Learner
Transformative
Learning Experience
Sense
of Belonging
Committed
to Success
Impactful
Narratives
Knowledge
Translation
Rich
Collaboration
Community
of Learners
Meaningful
Tasks
Assessment
for Learning
Some Key Principles
Teacher
Presence
Specialist
Educators

68. • Mini modules
• Study mobility
• Credit pathways
• Joint degree programs
• International scholarships
• Cost
• Access
• Quality
• Flexibility
• Innovation

70. 3. Better futures

71. Education
in
Change
Education
for
Change
Navigating Through Entangled Narratives

72. What type of
education futures
do we want new
digital technology
to serve?

74. Pedagogical Beliefs
not core to the
Framework

75. Teachers’ pedagogical mindsets rather
than skillsets matter most in shaping
innovative practices
KEY LESSON

76. http://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/bitstream/JRC101
254/jrc101254_digcomp%202.0%20the%20digital%20competen
ce%20framework%20for%20citizens.%20update%20phase%20
1.pdf

77. http://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/bitstream/JRC101
254/jrc101254_digcomp%202.0%20the%20digital%20competen
ce%20framework%20for%20citizens.%20update%20phase%20
1.pdf

78. 2017
Carretero, S., Vuorikari, R., & Punie, Y.
(2017). Available from
http://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repo
sitory/bitstream/JRC106281/web-
digcomp2.1pdf_(online).pdf

79. https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/sites/jrcsh/files
/DIGCOMP-FINAL-
%20UPDATED%2002-06-2016.pdf

80. https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/sites/jrcsh/files
/DIGCOMP-FINAL-
%20UPDATED%2002-06-2016.pdf

81. ‘You can’t just take something off
the shelf and expect it to work
just because it looks good’
(Belshaw, 2017)

82. Globally
digital transformation needs to challenge
our ideas of what constitutes the
good society
for better futures—for all

83. Final comment…

84. (adapted from Barnett, 2011)
Final comment…

86. Go raibh maith
agaibh!
Thank you