3. 主要經濟地區展望 一、 2006 年第三季美國地區房市指標下修已見底,從第四季起美國房市指標 已逐步向上攀昇,再加上 WTI 原油最高點 $78.5/bbl 下滑近三成,近期公 佈 CPI 、 PPI 的下跌,使得通膨壓力已獲得控制, Fed 升息機會不大, 明年美國經濟將軟著陸﹙ Soft landing﹚ 。 二、歐洲地區景氣在今 (2006) 年見高點, 2007 年 GDP 成長將會相較今年下滑, 然而隨著通膨壓力減輕,成長仍算穩健。 三、對美貿易出超仍將續創新高,再加上美元外匯存底超過一兆元以及美國期 中改選,參眾兩院多數黨領袖由民主黨掌握,人民幣升值壓力大增,由於 通膨壓力減輕,未來中國大陸經濟成長應首重內需市場﹙如基礎建設﹚, 不應該在過分依賴出口。簡單來看中國大陸每年 GDP 仍還維持 9~10% 高 速成長,一般石化原料需求亦維持穩定成長。 四、脫離 21 世紀初的 GDP 零成長,日本兩年來 GDP 每年都有超過 2% 的成 長,景氣可謂穩健復甦,再加上年輕安信內閣將致力於日本經濟成長,預 估出口動能仍舊平穩,唯一缺點是日本當地薪資未明顯上升,內需市場對 經濟成長貢獻不明顯。
4. Major Commodity Price Trend (Jan. 2004 = 100) * Generally Up Trend for Mineral Products, while Down Trend for Agricultural Products
5. History Projections World Marketed Energy Use by Fuel, 1980-2030 (quadrillion Btu) 33% 27% 26% Share of World Total 9% 5% International Energy Outlook 2006 資料來源: eia 2006 38% 24% 24% 8% 6% Oil Coal Natural Gas Renewables Nuclear
6. Major Events and World Oil Prices 1970-2005 Hurricanes Katrina and Rita Strike U.S. Gulf Coast dollars per barrel 資料來源: eia 2006
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13. Ethylene Trade Balance (as Ethylene Equivalent) * Sandstorm from Middle East * Black Hole in Asia, mainly in China
23. Major Derivative Production Trend in Middle East * Increase of PP Production via Propane Dehydrogenection ( 5.5 Million tons from 2005 till 2010 ) * Change Way of Thinking after 2010 ?? Metathesis ?? ( Ethane ⇒ Ethylene ⇒ Butenes + Ethylene ⇒ Propylene )
24. * Domestic production increases by about 20% as for LDPE+LLDPE, and the amount of the import is expected to decrease by 10% in 2006. * The import of PVC will decrease this year too. 5 Major Plastics Import Trend in China (1995-2005)
26. Main Synthetic Production by Region (2004) * China is Polyester Kingdom, West Europe is for Acrylic, U.S.A. is for Nylon
27. * Average growth rates of PTA, MEG Import into China was about 21% & 31% p.a. respectively between 2000 and 2005 * However, the those growth rate will decrease in 2006. Major Raw Materials for Fiber Intermediate Import Trend in China (1995-2005)