The presentation is a slimmed down version of a presentation I'm delivering to a group of large financial investment executives. I take a look at the trends that are emerging out of the impact of the last two years of economic crisis and start to paint a picture of what I believe the software industry will look like going forward.

1. Michael Fauscette, Group Vice President, SBS
©Copyright 2008 IDC
2009 IDC 7-09

2. Where We Stand
WW IT Spending
Worldwide GDP Forecast
© 2009 IDC Source: Q2 & Q3 2008 Worldwide Black Books; IDC Downside Scenario Model 7-09 2

3. Applications Forecast Changes
8.0%
7.0%
6.0%
5.0%
2008 (Early)
4.0% 2008 (Dec)
2009 (Jan)
3.0%
2009 (May)
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
©Copyright 2009 IDC. Reproduction is forbidden unless authorized. All rights reserved.
2009 IDC 7-09

4. An Economic Unknown
$1-3 Trillion For
 Bank Bailouts
 Tax Cuts
 Smart Grid
 SMB Incentives
 Health Care
 Infrastructure
 Broadband
 Auto Manufacturers
 Green Building
© 2009 IDC 7-09 4

5. Software Megatrends
Structural Changes Accelerated by the Financial Crisis
Consumption Models
Architecture
Imperatives
Emerging
Targets
Sourcing a
Process
© 2009 IDC 7-09

6. Software Megatrends
Structural Changes Accelerated by the Financial Crisis
Consumption Models
 Software as a Service /
Cloud Applications
 Open Source Software
© 2009 IDC 7-09

7. SaaS forecast comparison
$M
• IDC has increased its SaaS growth projection for 2009 from 36% growth to 42% growth over
2008.
• The percentage of U.S. firms which plan to spend at least 25% of their IT budgets on SaaS
applications will increase from 23% in 2008 to nearly 45% in 2010.
Source: Economic Crisis Response: Worldwide Software as a Service Forecast Update (IDC #215504, January 2009)
©Copyright 2009 IDC. Reproduction is forbidden unless authorized. All rights reserved.
2009 IDC 7-09

8. OSS Forecast
Source: Worldwide Open Source Software Forecast 2009 – 2013, July 2009
© 2009 IDC 7-09

9. Software Megatrends
Structural Changes Accelerated by the Financial Crisis
Imperatives
Emerging
 Social Software Solutions
© 2009 IDC 7-09

10. The Social Enterprise
Democratization and
Empowerment:
Spreading control across a broad
audience, adding value, building
relationships, conversations and
increasing transparency
It’s not just “tools”,
it’s changing processes
and culture
© 2009 IDC 7-09

11. The Social Enterprise
External
Sales – Marketing – Product – Support - Service
Blogs – Communities – Social Networks - Ideasourcing
– Microblogs – Syndication – Virtual Conference - Video
Wiki’s – Social Analytics – Collaboration – Mashups –
Platforms -
Internal
© 2009 IDC 7-09

12. Social Software Solutions
Consumer
Apps Collab CRM Content
Apps
Online Community Platforms
Social Analytics
Ideasourcing
Enablers Wiki Social Wiki
Customer
Blogs Service Blogs
+traditional Social SFA Ideasourcing
Collab (predictive
selling)
Brand
Monitoring /
building
© 2009 IDC 7-09

13. Social Software Solutions Vendors
Consumer
Apps Collab CRM Content
Apps
Online Community Platforms
Social Analytics
Facebook SocialText Concursive Google Apps
LinkedIn Lotus UserVoice Cisco Eos
Connections
Oracle Sales Reality Digital
MySpace Sharepoint Prospector
MyLife
Twitter Jive Bright Idea
OneRiot
Google Google Apps Omniture
Wink
Apps
© 2009 IDC 7-09

14. Software Megatrends
Structural Changes Accelerated by the Financial Crisis
 Service Oriented
Architecture
Architecture (SOA)
 Event Based
Architecture
 Unified Access to
Content and Data
© 2009 IDC 7-09

15. Software Megatrends
Structural Changes Accelerated by the Financial Crisis
 Build: Mashup,
Process Modeling,
Business Rules
 Buy: “Good Enough”
v. “Best of Breed”
 Outsource
Sourcing a
Process
© 2009 IDC 7-09

16. Software Megatrends
Structural Changes Accelerated by the Financial Crisis
Targets
 SMB’s
 Channels
 Partner to Partner
© 2009 IDC 7-09

17. Consolidation
 Enter the
Mega-ecosystem
 Partners Coalesce
Around Epicenters
 Partner Consolidation
 Hybrid Business
Models
© 2009 IDC 7-09

18. The New Landscape of Tech
Mega HP, IBM, Microsoft, Oracle (Post Sun),
Vendor Cisco, Intel, Google, Apple
Acquisition 1. Large >$1B, 2. vertical ISV’s, 3.
Targets Discontinuous innovators
Niche Markets, Redundant Portfolio, Too
Survivors Unique
Discontinuous Innovators: future
Start ups acquisition targets
© 2009 IDC 7-09

19. Oracle : Sun
Key Sun Assets:
 Java
 Solaris
 Storage
Key Opportunities:
 Appliances
 Storage
 Open Source
© 2009 IDC 7-09

20. Enterprise Apps Deals Database
Enterprise Applications Deals Database: track, analyze, & summarize
the buying behavior of enterprise applications deals around the world.
IDC is the only research firm tracking these deals.
 4,000-5,000 deals tracked annually
 Leading indicator for future purchasing
Provides an understanding of
 What was purchased? Types of buyers? Which segments?
 Why was it purchased?
 What is happening in the field?
IDC is also planning to expand our software deal tracking across
additional market areas in 2010. IDC clients are eager to understand
tactical buyer data that can be used in upcoming deals.
© 2009 IDC 7-09

21. Segmentations
 Buyer
 Vendor
 Partner
 23 Enterprise Applications Markets (ERM,
SCM, CRM, Ops & Mfg, Engineering)
 Product
 8 Verticals
 Employee Size
 3 Regions (Americas, Asia Pacific,
EMEA)
 Net New Customer vs Installed Base
 Announcement Date
© 2009 IDC 7-09

22. Sample Analysis From EA Deals DB
SMBs remain steady buyers
Base: 4004 purchases
SMB = Enterprises With Fewer Than 5,000 Employees
Large = Enterprises With More Than 5,000 Employees
© 2009 IDC 7-09 22

23. Sample Analysis From EA Deals DB (Cont.)
Net new customers become scarce
Base: 4004 purchases
© 2009 IDC 7-09 23

24. Sample Analysis From EA Deals DB (Cont.)
Verticals that see growth from Q to Q
© 2009 IDC 7-09 24

25. Contact
Michael Fauscette
mfauscette@idc.com
Twitter: @mfauscette
Blog: www.mfauscette.com
© 2008 IDC
© 2009 IDC 7-09