Amazon raised the bar for fast, economical and reliable small product home delivery. Yet home delivery of large-format products has not kept up. Isn’t it time to deliver all the goods?

1. Heavy Lifting Required:
A Large-Format Home
Delivery Breakthrough
Amazon raised the bar for fast, economical, and reliable
home delivery. Yet home delivery of large-format
products—appliances, furniture, and electronics—
has not kept up. Isn’t it time to deliver all the goods?
Heavy Lifting Required: A Large-Format Home Delivery Breakthrough
1

2. The market for home delivery of large-format products—appliances, furniture, and electronics—
is poised for growth, but structural hurdles are blocking retailers and home delivery service (HDS)
providers from capturing that growth. The market is fragmented and overly complex. Retailers
are generally uncertain about the need to differentiate through home delivery, and because there
is no breakthrough supply option available, they hesitate to alter the existing business model.
Home delivery suppliers have neither the size nor density to provide a breakthrough option and
are often cash-strapped, unable to make capability-building investments ahead of revenues.
A nationwide HDS integrator could resolve these issues—while also unlocking sizable savings
and improving customer service. This “breakthrough option” hinges on retailers, HDS providers,
and investors that are willing to work together.
Industry at an Impasse
The market for home delivery of large-format products offers significant opportunity for growth.
Currently estimated at $8 billion in the United States (about 60 percent for the last-mile segment
and 40 percent for the line-haul segment), the market could see a 6 percent compound annual
growth rate (CAGR) to reach $10 billion by 2015.
Demographic and market trends are fundamentally changing the home delivery market for largeformat product retailers and HDS providers (see sidebar: Four Trends in Home Delivery on page 6).
However, such growth can come only by satisfying consumers’ expectations for better
performance at a lower cost. Today’s HDS industry is not equipped to meet these expectations.
Indeed, in our recent benchmarking of major retailers’ home delivery programs, we found that
even today’s “best of breed” combined performance profile of retailers falls short on crucial
performance dimensions, such as cost, customer service, and lead time (see figure 1).
Figure 1
Today’s home delivery industry is falling short of buyers’ expectations
Most
important
for retailers
Cost for
delivery
Lagging
Industry average
Breakthrough
More than $90
Low
Medium
High
No weekend delivery
Weekend extra $10-20
Weekend no
extra cost
No guarantee
6 hours
7-14 days
2-day premium
Quality of
installation and
customer service
$75
$50
3-5 days
2-day premium
Extended
delivery hours
Moderately
important
for retailers
Less than $40
Delivery
window
4 hours
2 hours
Lead time
Source: A.T. Kearney analysis
2-3 days
Best of breed
today across five
major retailers
Required to
meet consumer
expectations
Heavy Lifting Required: A Large-Format Home Delivery Breakthrough
2

3. To understand why retailers are deficient in these areas requires first understanding the variety
of upstream and last-mile network strategies that large-format product retailers use for home
delivery (see figure 2). To appreciate the complexity, let’s follow a hypothetical order.
Figure 2
Retailers use a complex combination of home delivery strategies, but an integrated
strategy is ideal
Upstream network strategy
Location
of
inventory
Line-haul
delivery
to local
market
Proximity to
manufacturer
Managed by
manufacturer
Last-mile network strategy
Proximity
to national
retailer or
regional distribution center
Proximity to
retail store or
local distribution center
Managed by
retailer
Managed
by HDS
provider
Outsourced
nationwide
or by region
Nationwide
HDS provider
Multiple regional
HDS provider
Last-mile
delivery
Local market agents
of HDS provider
Assets and drivers
owned by HDS
provider
Dedicated
networks
(trucks and
drivers for
one retailer)
Dedicated
(retailer
branded)
Dedicated
(HDS
branded)
Commingled
Integration (upstream and last-mile) strategy
Different networks used depending on category
(appliance versus patio furniture)
Category specific
Cross-category mixing
End-to-end strategy deployed that includes call
centers and tracking
Retailer
HDS provider
More prevalent
Note: HDS is home delivery service.
Source: A.T. Kearney analysis
A customer places an online order for a 60-inch plasma television not stocked in a local store.
The order is delivered to the closest inventory location, which may be the upstream manufacturer’s warehouse, the retailer’s national distribution center, or a local distribution center.
The television is line hauled to a local delivery hub using a truck managed by the manufacturer,
the retailer, or a logistics line-haul provider. From the local hub, a retailer-contracted HDS provider
typically manages and coordinates last-mile delivery. This HDS provider may be a national
or regional last-mile management partner for the retailer. Although some HDS providers operate
that last-mile truck delivery run in-house, many subcontract it to a network of local delivery
agents. In the end, the truck arriving at the customer’s house could be retailer dedicated
(most common today, with all orders on the truck coming from one retailer), HDS dedicated
and branded (an exception rather than the rule), or commingled (another exception, with the
products on the truck commingled across multiple retailers). Category integration adds more
complexity: The delivery truck might be configured to carry only televisions and related
consumer electronics items (category specific) or able to deliver other categories, such
as furniture (cross-category).
Heavy Lifting Required: A Large-Format Home Delivery Breakthrough
3

4. Working together, retailers, home
delivery service providers, and investors
can create a nationwide, single-branded
HDS integrator network.
This complex web of network options inevitably leaves the industry with two structural gaps
(see figure 3):
Fragmentation and complexity. Home delivery is extremely fragmented. Most large retailers
have a combination of captive delivery networks, managed internally or externally by region
or product category. In turn, their external HDS partners manage a complex downstream network
of local agents dedicated to one retail client. And because the actual deliveries are likely to be
dedicated to one retailer or category, they are executed and delivered separately, even if bound
for the same ZIP code. This limits end-to-end real-time product visibility, complicates coordination
and hand-off activities, and raises the risk of delays, damages, and poor customer service.
Subscale volume and density. With retailer-captive operations and limited commingling across
retailers or product categories, last-mile delivery runs cannot achieve maximum density or
scale. This drives up delivery costs and limits flexibility, including the ability to offer tighter
delivery windows.
This fragmented, subscale HDS model worked in the 1990s, when lead time for home delivery
was measured in weeks, and delivery quality and reliability were not crucial because retailers
were competing largely on SKU selection and price. But this model is woefully inadequate for
today’s e-commerce and omni-channel retailing norm.
Figure 3
The web of home delivery operating models is overly complex
National
retailer 1
National
retailer 2
National
retailer 3
Retailer’s
distribution
center
Manufacturer’s
distribution
center
Retailer’s
distribution
center
Local
retailers
Illustrative
Appliances
Big screen TVs
Agent
hubs
or retail
stores
Consumers
in same
zip code
Big screen TVs
Hubs or
stores
Appliances
Big screen TVs
Hubs
or stores
Line hauls
Last-mile delivery runs
Source: A.T. Kearney analysis
Heavy Lifting Required: A Large-Format Home Delivery Breakthrough
4

5. The Retailer Challenge
Although retailers and HDS companies see these structural issues and acknowledge the need
to change, each side faces unique challenges (see figure 4). The structural headwinds further
reinforce and exacerbate each other, creating gridlock that is bringing progress to a halt.
Retailers face three challenges to large-format home delivery:
Disagreement on “role” in home delivery. To remain relevant in the emerging retailing norm,
most leading retailers generally agree that they need to fix their large-format HDS functions in terms
of cost, service, and lead time. Most also concur that building a forward-thinking home delivery
network will require investments, including expanding warehousing footprints, improving end-toend delivery visibility, and increasing last-mile productivity and scale. However, leading retailers
do not agree about the strategic role of home delivery. Some view home delivery as a strategic
differentiator. Wanting to keep in-house control, they oppose commingling with other retailers.
Conversely, some are looking for absolute performance: reducing costs while improving service
and speed. These players are generally willing to look at industry-wide approaches that unlock
improved service and cost performance, but the opposing perspectives deepen the impasse.
Near-term cost pressures. Retailers face constant pressure to contain costs across all aspects
of their value chains. Home delivery for large products is no exception because it represents
a higher percentage of a typical customer order compared to smaller-format categories, such
as apparel and consumables (see figure 5 on page 6). However, because of myriad cost pressures
on retailers, other priorities often take precedence over tackling longer-term, step-change
home delivery solutions.
No immediate HDS option. If a leading HDS firm today offered lower costs and better service,
retailers might be compelled to take the one-time switching pain rather than spending the time
and money to fix their home delivery operations. But no such option exists because HDS firms
have not yet secured sufficient scale, density, or scope of services. Even the largest national
HDS player in the market today accounts for only 4 to 6 percent of total annual deliveries. This
lack of a clear supply market option prevents retailers from a step-change transformation.
Figure 4
Challenges for retailers and home delivery service (HDS) providers
Retailer challenges
HDS provider challenges
Disagreement among retailers
about their role in home delivery
Lack size and density to offer retailers
a lower cost, better service option
Bigger supply chain cost pressures push
home delivery focus to the back burner
Operational issues
No compelling reason (cost or service)
to outsource to HDS providers
Inability to invest in new technologies,
capabilities, or infrastructure
• Processes designed and dedicated for own
retail customers
• Last-mile focus on some categories but not all
Reinforcing driver
Source: A.T. Kearney analysis
Heavy Lifting Required: A Large-Format Home Delivery Breakthrough
5

6. Figure 5
Home delivery service represents a large percentage of a typical customer’s order
Average home delivery cost as % of basket size1
Parcel-format products
Large-format products
12%
9%
4%
Apparel
1
4%
Consumables
Big screen TVs
Appliances
Home delivery cost includes line-haul and last-mile delivery but not warehouse fulfillment pick-and-pack.
Source: A.T. Kearney analysis
Four Trends in Home Delivery
Four trends are driving growth
and increasing consumers’
expectations for large-format
product home delivery.
The first is what we call the
e-promise. As e-commerce
grows, industry leaders such
as Amazon—along with parcel
delivery providers such as
FedEx and UPS—are pushing the
fulfillment frontier. Free, two-day
delivery with status tracking is
the new norm, and same-day
shipping options are expanding.
These innovations anchor
consumer expectations for all
home deliveries, regardless of
the product. Consumers don’t
much care about the market
dynamics and economics of
large-format versus parcel
delivery. They want—and will
increasingly require—low
delivery prices, tight delivery
windows, and top-notch service.
The second trend is bipolarized
age groups. The U.S. population
is skewing simultaneously older
and younger. By 2025, one in four
Americans will be younger than
25 (millennials) while another
one in four will be 60 or older
(baby boomers). Although these
groups have their differences,
both prefer home delivery.
Boomers have diminished
physical capacity and will seek
competitively priced delivery,
free old-product takeaway,
information services at the point
of delivery, and installation
options. Millennials with hectic
schedules will demand convenience, flexibility, and speed.
Options such as rapid arrival,
two-hour delivery windows,
and flexible nighttime options
will become more valuable.
A third trend is urbanization.
By 2020, about 90 percent of
Americans will be living in urban
centers, up from 80 percent
today. This represents a longterm migration of 20 million
consumers from suburb to
city—and from large-format
stores to limited retail floor
space. Retailers that previously
displayed a full assortment of
items must figure out how to
coordinate a showroom-focused
urban store with fast home
delivery from warehouses.
Finally, consumers are buying
more and bigger products and
smaller vehicles. Large-format
consumer products are getting
bigger. For example, the average
purchased television was 27
inches in 2004, 37 inches in 2011,
and could top 60 inches by 2015.
And people are buying more.
In the early 1990s, the average
household had two televisions;
today, the average is three.
These trends will continue as
e-commerce and home delivery
offer customers a means to
purchase large items more often
and without the logistics barrier
of getting the items home.
In fact, that barrier grows as
Americans buy smaller vehicles.
From 2009 to 2011, small vehicle
sales outpaced trucks and SUVs
by more than 5 percent annually.
Combined, big products and
small cars will boost the demand
for home delivery.
Heavy Lifting Required: A Large-Format Home Delivery Breakthrough
6

7. The Service Provider Challenge
The fragmented HDS industry encompasses scores of national and regional operators and
hundreds of local agents and delivery contractors, with the top five players managing less than
30 percent of total delivery volume (see figure 6).
Three challenges are preventing HDS providers from consolidating and thus thwarting the
emergence of a new operating model:
Lack of size and density. A primary constraint for HDS providers is retailers’ reluctance
to commingle their volumes and unlock their captive operations. If one leading retailer with
significant captive operations were to outsource that volume to just one top national HDS
provider, it would at least double that provider’s volume. The lack of scale makes for a higher
cost per order because fixed costs are amortized across fewer orders per run and because
low-density runs increase driving time. In addition, this lack of scale and density hinders efforts
to improve service, such as offering narrow delivery windows and weekend runs. So suppliers
cannot offer a breakthrough supply option until they have scale, and retailers are waiting for
a breakthrough supply option to offer their volumes.
Operational issues. In the parcel home delivery market, scale was the silver bullet that helped
create a FedEx and UPS duopoly. But delivery for large products is more complicated (see figure 7
on page 8). For example, significantly more labor and time is required at the customer’s home.
This portion of the cost to serve, estimated at 35 to 45 percent of total last-mile delivery costs
as opposed to 5 to 10 percent for small parcels, will not necessarily benefit from pure scale.
Instead, new technologies and processes will be needed to unlock productivity. Additionally,
none of today’s HDS carriers perform well in last-mile delivery in all large-format product
categories (furniture, appliances, and electronics), and few perform well across the end-to-end
supply chain. Because their operations are dedicated to their retailer customers, HDS firms often
have a narrow scope of services: for example, provide last-mile delivery on a specific category,
but have no line-haul capabilities. Delivery excellence will be needed across all categories, and
from line haul to last mile.
Figure 6
The top five home delivery players manage less than 30 percent of the total volume
Market share (%)
Top 5 home
delivery service
providers
Home delivery providers (examples)
28%
(Most are
asset-light)
Local providers
and in-house
retailer managed
Most leverage
72%
Regional and
local agents
(All own assets
or contract
with owner
operators)
•
•
•
•
•
•
3PD
J.B. Hunt
Exel
Home Direct
GE
CEVA
•
•
•
•
•
Pilot
Estes
NSD
SEKO
Ryder
•
•
•
•
•
•
National thirdparty logistics
Cardinal
Spirit
R.A.S.
Home Delivery USA
Sepro Logistics
Linn Starr
•
•
•
•
OPTIMA
Zenith
CDS
Hundreds of oneto three-truck
owner operators
2011
Source: A.T. Kearney analysis
Heavy Lifting Required: A Large-Format Home Delivery Breakthrough
7

8. Figure 7
Home delivery for large products is more complex than for parcels
Parcels
Large products
Density
• 13 stops per hour
• 4 to 5 minutes per stop
• 1.7 stops per hour
• 35 minutes per stop
Delivery team
• 1 person
• 2 people
Homeowner
interaction
• Minimal to none because parcels left at the door
• Signature rarely required
• High because of in-home installation and Q&A
• Order acceptance required
Team member
requirements
• Driving
• Some lifting
• Driving
• Heavy lifting
Liability issues
• Limited
• Unlimited because of in-home delivery and setup
Infrastructure
requirements
• Limited scheduling
and rescheduling
• Tracking
• Returns management
• Call-center coordination
• Heavy scheduling
and rescheduling
• Tracking
• Customer interaction
• Technical know-how
• Returns management
• Call-center coordination
• Call-ahead confirmation
Source: A.T. Kearney analysis
Investment muscle. HDS providers do not have the capital (ahead of revenues) to invest in new
technologies, capabilities, and infrastructure necessary to provide a breakthrough supply option.
Investments in three areas are key:
Integrated order management and visibility systems. Many HDS companies lack an integrated
and seamless platform that retailers can easily plug into. To provide coordinated order management, status tracking for customers, and effective anticipation and management of customer
service issues, retailers need end-to-end visibility and coordination—from retailer warehouses
and regional hubs to delivery routes and customer service after delivery. Establishing an
integrated systems platform will encourage and enable retailer adoption.
Hub and warehousing infrastructure. Most leading HDS companies lack the large, national
warehousing and hub infrastructure to create a value proposition based on large assortment
space and fast lead time. Most are asset-less; they access retailer-owned or leased assets.
To support a retailer commingled, cross-category delivery network, HDS companies must invest
in building out their asset footprints.
In-home productivity. To achieve end-to-end cost efficiency, HDS companies must develop
technologies and material handling equipment that can boost in-home delivery productivity.
For example, technology could be used to cross-reference the size of a product with information
about the customer’s home (acquired via a phone- or web-based questionnaire during the
confirmation of delivery date) to identify the likelihood of needing to remove doors. Delivery
could then be assigned to a team that specializes in door removal.
Most HDS providers are undercapitalized to invest ahead of revenue. This is exacerbated by some
large retailers’ hesitation to outsource business volume in a non-captive manner to a select few
strategic HDS partners. Hence, the gridlock continues.
Heavy Lifting Required: A Large-Format Home Delivery Breakthrough
8

9. Call for a Nationwide HDS Integrator
A leading HDS integrator could solve today’s retailer and HDS challenges (see figure 8).
Similar to UPS and FedEx in parcel delivery, an integrator would be a national service provider
that can offer an end-to-end (line haul and last mile) network with leading capabilities and
technology to sustain best-in-class performance. Rather than being dedicated to a specific
retailer or product category, an integrator serves a pool of clients. This emerging player could
unlock value—building scale advantage and reducing coordination complexity—by performing
a crucial set of integration activities that are thus far absent or underdeveloped.
Integration will encompass a variety of actions:
• Coordinate pooling across retailers to increase scale and density in last-mile delivery, thus
reducing cost per delivery and increasing flexibility. Although the trucks and delivery uniforms
would not be dedicated to one retailer, differentiation could occur at the point of delivery,
for example by providing retailer-branded invoices and information packets and using wireless
tablets to access retailer-specific product information.
• Configure last-mile delivery to commingle orders across categories.
• Develop integrated system platforms for end-to-end order management and tracking visibility,
enabling a seamless customer service experience from order to post-delivery.
• Develop software tools to improve productivity, such as route optimization and delivery
management, and provide incentives for continuous improvement across downstream local
delivery networks.
• Establish a national training program to ensure consistent delivery quality.
Figure 8
A home delivery service integrator could transform the industry
Fragmented home delivery
Home delivery service integrator
Fragmented line haul, hubs,
and last-mile deliveries
National
retailer 1
Appliances
National
retailer 2
Big screen TVs
National
retailer 3
Shared hubs, commingled, last-mile
deliveries, and integrated systems
National
retailer 1
Agent
hubs
or retail
stores
National
retailer 2
Consumers
in same
zip code
Big screen TVs
Appliances
Big screen TVs
National
retailer 3
Big screen TVs
•
•
•
•
Hubs or
stores
Local
retailers
Appliances
Appliances
Big screen TVs
Hubs or
stores
Fragmented delivery truck density, limited scheduling flexibility
Numerous IT systems
Limited end-to-end visibility
Inconsistent delivery and service training
Consumers
in same
zip code
Big screen TVs
Hubs or
stores
Local
retailers
Agent
hubs
or retail
stores
•
•
•
•
Hubs or
stores
Maximum delivery truck density, flexibility to schedule deliveries
Integrated IT systems
End-to-end visibility
Uniform delivery and service training
Source: A.T. Kearney analysis
Heavy Lifting Required: A Large-Format Home Delivery Breakthrough
9

10. For retailers, an integrated HDS network provides strategic flexibility for large-format home
deliveries, allowing them to meet their evolving business needs. Opting into the network will be
smart for those seeking to capitalize on the breakthrough value of cross-firm scale and density,
such as boutique online retailers or regional dealers. Large retailers with significant volume may
also opt in if they choose to focus on scale-based cost and service efficiency rather than develop
in-house home delivery as a competitive differentiator. This provides an ideal outsourcing option
with a small commitment of internal capital.
An integrator network unlocks and passes on significant cost savings to retailers. By doubling
its scale with a cross-retailer, cross-category network, a midsized retailer could save about
7 percent in last-mile delivery costs. And the savings increase as the network grows—up to about
a 20 percent cost savings at volumes nine to 10 times that of today’s average retailer (see figure 9).
(Note that these savings result solely from increased last-mile density and scale. Additional
savings may come from increased scale in upstream line haul and improved productivity and
coordination through enhancements to systems and processes.)
Figure 9
Retailers' costs drop as the size of the integrator network grows
Cost per delivery
100%
100%
93%
95%
89%
90%
87%
85%
85%
85%
83%
83%
80%
80%
9X
10X
80%
5%
0%
1X
2X
3X
4X
5X
6X
7X
8X
Last-mile delivery volume
Note: X represents an average midsized retailer volume of ~1-3 million annual deliveries.
Source: A.T. Kearney analysis
Further, large HDS integrator networks can unlock breakthrough scale and density while
reducing coordination complexity. The resulting platform replaces the fragmented network
of captive retailer partner programs, subscale density trucks, and IT systems. As more retailers
migrate to a few HDS integrator platforms, fragmentation and complexity is reduced across
the ecosystem, further driving retailer migration.
Structural changes will also encourage HDS integrators to invest ahead of the curve. The value
created by integrating will increase the pie for both retailers and HDS companies. This win-win
rather than zero-sum proposition will, all else being equal, increase the integrator’s profit margin.
The combination of business growth and increased margins will attract a virtuous cycle
of investments in developing capabilities and technologies to further improve the integrator
network’s efficiency, services, and ease of retailer adoption.
Heavy Lifting Required: A Large-Format Home Delivery Breakthrough 10

11. The Triple Play: Collaboration
Together, retailers, HDS providers, and investors can create a nationwide, single-branded
integrator network. If all three parties take calculated risks and play complementary roles, they
can unlock transformative win-win value.
Retailers that actively identify and initiate partnerships with high-potential HDS providers can
capture breakthrough home delivery performance. By rationalizing their existing dedicated
networks and outsourcing to a more targeted partner base, retailers can contribute essential
volume to break today’s industry impasse and begin to build the integrator vision. Forwardthinking retailers will get ahead of the curve by securing home delivery performance for
competitive advantage.
HDS providers that build national integrator networks will take a lynchpin leadership role. The first
step is to segment and target appropriate retailers to aggressively build scale. Investing in assets
and technologies will enable the essential capacity, service level, last-mile efficiency, and end-toend visibility. This includes exploring options to selectively acquire underused retailer assets that
can be better leveraged in a commingled network. Integrators that define a compelling business
case for engaging with investors will secure a much-needed capital infusion.
The institutional investment and private equity community will also play important roles in this
transformation. Investors can inject the capital that aspiring HDS providers need to develop
infrastructure systems and productivity-enhancing technologies to accelerate retailer adoption
of a commingled national integrator network. In return, savvy investors can expect a robust return
on investment in the win-win transformation of the growing large-format home delivery sector.
Authors
Jeff Ward, partner, Chicago
jeff.ward@atkearney.com
Kumar Venkataraman, partner, Chicago
kumar.venkataraman@atkearney.com
Jeff Sexstone, principal, Atlanta
jeffrey.sexstone@atkearney.com
Arsenio Martinez, principal, New York
arsenio.martinezsimon@atkearney.com
Michael Hu, principal, Chicago
michael.hu@atkearney.com
Heavy Lifting Required: A Large-Format Home Delivery Breakthrough 11

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