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Winning Supply Chain in Omnichannel –
Trends and Strategic Implications
Kellogg School of Management
2016
2
Introduction
Michael Hu
Principal
Email: Michael.Hu@atkearney.com
− Area of focus: eCommerce and omni-channel supply cha...
3
• Introduction: What is omnichannel? Why is supply chain critical?
• What is customer promise? Why is customer promise
s...
4
What is omnichannel? - allowing consumers to buy how they
want, what they want and when they want it
Source: A.T. Kearne...
5
Online sales growth and penetration significantly outpacing
traditional channels
1. Euromonitor, A.T. Kearney Analysis
-...
6
Mixing
Centers
Distribution
Centers StoresPlant
Brands Retailers
Mixing
Centers
Distribution
Centers StoresPlant
Brand’s...
7
• Visibility at pallet level
• Fewer, higher velocity SKUs
• Limited need for real-time
integration and analytics
• Visi...
8
Supply chain and fulfillment is critical for omnichannel success
More Direct Impact on
Consumer Experience
Missed cross-...
9
Amazon vs. Walmart: supply chain disruption accelerating
Source: Morgan Stanley; Bloomberg
Amazon Overtakes Walmart in M...
10
• Introduction: What is omnichannel? Why is supply chain critical?
• What is customer promise? Why is customer promise
...
11
Omnichannel supply chain must start with a clear segmented
view of future consumer promise
Illustrative
Customer Promis...
12
Category
…
Customer Promise
➢ Assortment
➢ Delivery Time
➢ Returns
➢ Replenishment
Orders
➢ Order notification
➢ Person...
13
Delivery Speed (in business days)
Same Day9 3568 2 17 4
Big & Bulky
Consumables
& Baby
Toys
Electronics
Hardlines
Appar...
14
• Introduction: What is omnichannel? Why is supply chain critical?
• What is customer promise? Why is customer promise
...
15
Flexible Fulfillment Networks
Global trends shaping omnichannel fulfillment and supply chain
Rise of Marketplace
Strate...
16
What is the traditional role of retailers vs. manufacturers? …
increasingly blurring today
1
Source: A.T. Kearney
SellD...
17
Depth of OfferingLevel 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Level 5
Research
Shop
Service /
Omni
• Online/mobile product search
• ...
18
Supply Chain Implications
Strategy
Capabilities
For Manufacturers For Retailers
Manage
Channel
Conflict
Improve
Collabo...
19
Birth of the Market Place
The concept of Market Places have been around since
the “Classified Ads” in the Sunday paper
...
20
Marketplace is now a key growth platform for omnichannel
Source: A.T. Kearney
2
The Top 3
• Marketplace growth as outpa...
21
Supply Chain Implications
Strategy
• Marketplaces are key consideration in almost every e-commerce company
• Can be a s...
22
Retailer DC
Manufacturer
DC
Retailer Store
Converted /
Dark Store
Home or Office
Lockers
Store for
Pickup
Movement of g...
23
Drivers for Same Day Penetration …
58%-64% of Millennials want
Same Day
61% consumers willing to pay for
Same Day conve...
24
Several Same Day supply chain models emerging
3
Retailer
Managed
3PL Managed
(Owned)
3PL Managed
(Crowdsource)
Marketpl...
25
3
Many are making strategic bets in Same Day
US
• Offered across 11 metro
areas (~25% of
population area)
• $5.99 (Prim...
26
Supply Chain Implications
Strategy
Capabilities
• Define clear, fact based approach to activating Last Mile
‒ Establish...
27
Building a flexible network with dynamic flows will be key for
competitive performance
Store DCs
combo
DCs
Store
Custom...
28
Lead Time
Pick/Pack
Cost
.com
Volume
Assortment
(Capacity)
Store or Mini-
Hub Picking
Store
Converted
Warehouse
High Ve...
29
Leveraging partners is also critical for flexibility and learning
3PLs and supplier direct ship as part of overall fulf...
30
Supply Chain Implications
Strategy
Capabilities
LogisticsTechnology Organization
• Priority
– Geographic inventory
plan...
31
Future stores will be ambidextrous, combining the right mix of
Consumer Experience and Local Fulfillment
Consumer Exper...
32
Related readings from A.T. Kearney
Best
Practices in
Strategic
Multichannel
Fulfillment
Is Your Supply
Chain Ready
for ...
33
Americas Atlanta
Bogotá
Boston
Calgary
Chicago
Dallas
Detroit
Houston
Mexico City
New York
Palo Alto
San Francisco
São ...
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Winning Supply Chain in Omnichannel - Trends and Implications

I gave a talk at Professor Chopra's class at Kellogg on emerging trends in omnichannel retailing and the need for new supply chain and fulfillment models.

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Winning Supply Chain in Omnichannel - Trends and Implications

  1. 1. Winning Supply Chain in Omnichannel – Trends and Strategic Implications Kellogg School of Management 2016
  2. 2. 2 Introduction Michael Hu Principal Email: Michael.Hu@atkearney.com − Area of focus: eCommerce and omni-channel supply chain; digital transformation − Passionate about working with retailers and brands − 2007 Kellogg grad − 2 year consulting stint turned into 9 years … and counting
  3. 3. 3 • Introduction: What is omnichannel? Why is supply chain critical? • What is customer promise? Why is customer promise segmentation key for designing a winning supply chain? • Key trends in omnichannel and implications for future supply chains Agenda
  4. 4. 4 What is omnichannel? - allowing consumers to buy how they want, what they want and when they want it Source: A.T. Kearney TRANSACT FOLLOWUP BROWSESTIMULUS EVALUATE Frictionless Consumer Journey 4 5 21 3 Digital stores and pop-ups Curated, free home trials One click buy on social media Amazon dash button Click & Collect Locker Pickup Time Definite Delivery Real time promotions Digital augmented dressing rooms Mobile, alternative payment Online dressing room 24/7 customer care Endless aisle marketplace Automated stores Crowd sourced same day delivery Chat-bots and shopping assistant Smart device replenishment
  5. 5. 5 Online sales growth and penetration significantly outpacing traditional channels 1. Euromonitor, A.T. Kearney Analysis -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 18% 20% 0% 26% 22% 16% 6% 2% 24% 4% Haircare Bath & Shower Offline Growth Men’s Grooming Color Cosmetics Skincare FragrancesSets / Kits Online Growth Deodorants Online vs. Offline Growth by Category (Retail Value, 2013-2015 CAGR) Size of bubble indicates product penetration, ranging from 0% to 20% for categories shown FragrancesSkincare DeodorantsSets / KitsColor Cosmetics Bath & ShowerHaircare Men’s Grooming
  6. 6. 6 Mixing Centers Distribution Centers StoresPlant Brands Retailers Mixing Centers Distribution Centers StoresPlant Brand’s .com Distribution Center • Homes • Lockers Last Mile (pick-from-store) Last Mile Last Mile (click and collect) Line haul Line haul Line haul Line haulLine haul Retailer owned or Brand owned Retailer .com Distribution Centers eCommerce assets eCommerce flows • Mixed or full pallets • Line haul trucks •Full or layer case picking to pallet •Pallets of products pushed to stores (and end customers) •Unit or eaches picking to basket •Pick against consumer order •Can be located 750 mile to <50 mile of demand •750 – <50 miles (depending on order lead time: 3 days vs. same day) •Parcel express trucks if Next -3 days •Delivery vans, courier, drones if Same/Next day Source: A.T. Kearney Omnichannel supply chain is different than traditional retail
  7. 7. 7 • Visibility at pallet level • Fewer, higher velocity SKUs • Limited need for real-time integration and analytics • Visibility at basket level • More, thin SKUs • Real time Big Data analytics and integration critical Inventory Management Front & Back- End Systems Challenge Traditional Brick & Mortar Focus Omnichannel Focus • Store location key • Less demand volatility • Store+ warehouse key • More demand volatility Network Footprint • High volume cases • Replenish stores • Low volume eaches units • Building consumer baskets Warehouse Operations Source: A.T. Kearney Omnichannel supply chain is different than traditional retail
  8. 8. 8 Supply chain and fulfillment is critical for omnichannel success More Direct Impact on Consumer Experience Missed cross-dock scheduling or delay in LTL replenishment = increased likelihood of shelf Out of Stock Delayed online order fulfillment from warehouse fulfillment = 100% unhappy customer Brick & Mortar Omni- channel More Impact on Profit 1 2 3 Source: A.T. Kearney; GfK FutureBuy Higher Consumer Expectations
  9. 9. 9 Amazon vs. Walmart: supply chain disruption accelerating Source: Morgan Stanley; Bloomberg Amazon Overtakes Walmart in Market Cap Walmart: 25 years to reach $20B (USD) Amazon: 14 years Alibaba: 9 years
  10. 10. 10 • Introduction: What is omnichannel? Why is supply chain critical? • What is customer promise? Why is customer promise segmentation key for designing a winning supply chain? • Key trends in omnichannel and implications for future supply chains Agenda
  11. 11. 11 Omnichannel supply chain must start with a clear segmented view of future consumer promise Illustrative Customer Promise Grocery Fresh Personal Care/Beauty Apparel Electronics Home & Furniture Delivery Speed: <2 Day Delivery Lead Time Endless Aisle Assortment Free Shipping Cost Subscription/Auto refill Product Recommendations Product Sampling M-checkout and text Click & Collect No Hassle Returns Any Channel More ImportantLess Important Trade-off bets are key ! …. why place bets at all? What about Amazon? Source: A.T. Kearney
  12. 12. 12 Category … Customer Promise ➢ Assortment ➢ Delivery Time ➢ Returns ➢ Replenishment Orders ➢ Order notification ➢ Personalization Ensure Optimal Design • Product Cube Profile • Peak Profile • SKU Count Asset • SKU Velocity • SKU Productivity Inventory • Footprint / flow • Capacity • Eaches picking solution • Technology/ CapEx • Capital outlay Supply Chain Requirements • Throughput • Delivery Speed Network Traditional B&M Retailer Define strategy Pilot Roll out Omnichannel Define (Many) Strategic Scenarios Model (Should-cost, benchmarking) Pilot Sequenced Roll-Out Customer promise drives optimal supply chain design … and vice versa Source: A.T. Kearney
  13. 13. 13 Delivery Speed (in business days) Same Day9 3568 2 17 4 Big & Bulky Consumables & Baby Toys Electronics Hardlines Apparel and Beauty Media 2daysdelivery 1-2days Same-Next Day 3-5 days Emerging “table stakes” in futureCurrent industry range • Store picking • 15-20 .com warehouses • Store picking • 4-8 .com warehouses • 4-7 .com warehouses • Leverage existing store (case picking) warehouses Fulfillment Network Needs Example: Delivery speed can impact DC asset and capital needs Source: A.T. Kearney
  14. 14. 14 • Introduction: What is omnichannel? Why is supply chain critical? • What is customer promise? Why is customer promise segmentation key for designing a winning supply chain? • Key trends in omnichannel and implications for future supply chains Agenda
  15. 15. 15 Flexible Fulfillment Networks Global trends shaping omnichannel fulfillment and supply chain Rise of Marketplace Strategic Bet in Same Day Delivery Ambidextrous Role of Stores Blurring of Manufacturer and Retailer Value Chain Source: A.T. Kearney Service ‒ Assortment ‒ Service ‒ Convenience Efficiency Best Today Competitive Frontier Tomorrow 1 2 3 4 5 Digital Disruption 6
  16. 16. 16 What is the traditional role of retailers vs. manufacturers? … increasingly blurring today 1 Source: A.T. Kearney SellDistributeDesign Source Make Deliver • New product specifications from demand • Bundle products into end consumer batches • Distribute batches to points of purchase or consumption • Discovery and trials • Offer vehicle for purchases • Ensure order fulfillment Retailers Manufacturers Brands aggressively expand Retail Footprint and DTC sales • L’Occitane sells 9% online, with the channel experiencing 30%+ growth in 2015 • Significant retail footprint: L’Occitane, MAC, Benefit, Kiehl’s, Urban Decay, NYX owned stores, The Body Shop; Pure online subscription services e.g., Birchbox, looking to expand with retail presence as well Leading Beauty Retailer Strong in Private Label • ~360 self-standing stores + ~570 within JCP • Sephora leader in beauty Ecommerce (22%+ sales online) • Sephora private label assortment includes 700+ SKUs • Launched new designer cosmetic collaboration within LVMH group with Marc Jacobs
  17. 17. 17 Depth of OfferingLevel 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Level 5 Research Shop Service / Omni • Online/mobile product search • Side by side feature comparisons • Online memberships • High resolution specs/photos (3D) • Product narration • User feedbacks and reviews • Smart recommend • User communities • Buy online for direct delivery • 1-click and/or mobile-payment • Store pick-up • Global shipping • Store fulfill with last mile deliveryBuy / Fulfill • Subscriptions • Segmented assortment by channel • Product sampling for VIP customers • Online customization • Retail location recommend • Customized order management • No hassle returns • One click live customer service • Omni-channel integration Source: A.T. Kearney Manufacturers across sectors are pursuing forward integration 1 What drives the intensity of Manufacturer’s forward integration?
  18. 18. 18 Supply Chain Implications Strategy Capabilities For Manufacturers For Retailers Manage Channel Conflict Improve Collaboration Better segmentation of products and SKUs to cost to serve (manuf. direct vs. direct ship vs. retailer) Ensure touch points are aligned to maximize consumer journey with brand (Integrated flows by category/channel that drives win-win value) Shared asset and capabilities (e.g. manufacturer’s E-store on retailer marketplace) Joint inbound logistics optimization (e.g. factory to retailer DC direct, etc.) Retailer showroom integrated with manufacturer fulfillment (direct ship) Adopt manufacturer mindset and capabilities in private label: • Product development and component sourcing • Lifecycle management • Should-costing, benchmarks • Manufacturing and contract-manufacturing Develop segmented supply chain for private label • More sophisticated inventory deployment • Managing more on-hand inventory • Eaches / piece-picking based flows Direct to consumer fulfillment and go-to-market strategies • Eaches picking DC and fulfillment networks • De-centralized, forward deployed inventory flows and management • Fulfillment network integration with retailer store/web orders • Store and pop-up store operations and systems 1
  19. 19. 19 Birth of the Market Place The concept of Market Places have been around since the “Classified Ads” in the Sunday paper Digital Market Places have existed for over 20 years On-line retailers quickly discovered the power of the Market Place led by Amazon and eBay 2 What exactly is an online marketplace?
  20. 20. 20 Marketplace is now a key growth platform for omnichannel Source: A.T. Kearney 2 The Top 3 • Marketplace growth as outpaced traditional e-Commerce growth • Lower cost, lower risk way to sell to new market • Endless aisle, long tail marketing Alibaba • $11B USD in Single Day’s sales (Chinese equiv. of Cyber Monday) in 2015 • On pace to surpass Walmart in gross merchant value by 2017 Amazon • Marketplace sales growing at twice the pace of overall e-Commerce Why would a Retailer build a Marketplace? Why would a Brand use one?
  21. 21. 21 Supply Chain Implications Strategy • Marketplaces are key consideration in almost every e-commerce company • Can be a significant compliment to standard e-commerce sales; used by many U.S. and European retailers to expand in emerging markets • With lower lead-time expectations vis-à-vis new product assortment and pricing in Asia, marketplaces are a low risk alternative ‒ Rapidly becoming primary e-Commerce channel in China • Great opportunity to introduce niche products and go after niche consumers • Emerging market locations find marketplaces to be a low risk opportunity Capabilities • Channel risk management (quality, imitations, lead times are risk-points for consumers) • Integrated cost and flow modeling logic (decide between: holding inventory, cross-docking orders, and direct flow) • Technology integration with vendor OMS • Technology and supply chain organizational DNA, not just traditional retailing 2
  22. 22. 22 Retailer DC Manufacturer DC Retailer Store Converted / Dark Store Home or Office Lockers Store for Pickup Movement of goods from the last inventory point to the point of consumer chosen access in 24 hours Order to Delivery <24 hours What is the Last Mile? Same Day Delivery? 3 Source: A.T. Kearney
  23. 23. 23 Drivers for Same Day Penetration … 58%-64% of Millennials want Same Day 61% consumers willing to pay for Same Day convenience Supply side innovation transforms cost economics (e.g. crowdsourcing) Source: Trustve; Coldwell Banker; PWC Same Day Delivery Market – US ($B) Source: B.I. Intelligence Same Day is still emerging … but rapidly growing 3 What are the challenges preventing mass adoption in the US?
  24. 24. 24 Several Same Day supply chain models emerging 3 Retailer Managed 3PL Managed (Owned) 3PL Managed (Crowdsource) Marketplace (Outsourced) Marketplace (Crowdsource) Source: A.T. Kearney Retail owned and operated last mile assets and drivers Outsourced to a 3PL who executes with owned assets and drivers Outsourced to a 3PL who fulfills using crowd- sourced drivers Retail sells through a marketplace, who in turn manages last mile delivery via crowdsourced drivers Control and Shopper Visibility Scale efficiency and access to enabling capabilities Retail sells through a marketplace, who in turn manages last mile delivery using owned and/or 3PL assets Higher Lower Lower Higher Which brand category likely to adopt which model?
  25. 25. 25 3 Many are making strategic bets in Same Day US • Offered across 11 metro areas (~25% of population area) • $5.99 (Prime); $10+ $.99/add’l item(non-Prime) • 500K-1M SKUs UK • Same day click & collect • Order before 11AM/ready by 4pm; order by 7:45pm/ready next 8- 10AM • Free (Prime); $BP 4.99 (non Prime) • Leveraging ConnectGroup news distributor partner (500+ stores / pick-up locations today) US • Offered across major US cities • $5-6 (basket >$99); $15 (basket<$99) • Order by noon-1pm (mon-sat) China • Same day delivery across 40+ cities • Piloting 3 hour delivery in 6 major cities • Owned network of 7 DCs, 97 warehouse and 715+ pick-up stations • In-house real-time tracking and routing technology platform Retailer Managed 3PL - Crowdsourced Marketplace - Crowdsourced US • 6 US metro areas • $95 annual subscription or $5/order (consumer) + commission from retailer • Strategic value sharing / conflict beyond fulfillment (consumer intel) Source: Financial Times; Guardian; Mintel; Amazon; RILA; AT Kearney
  26. 26. 26 Supply Chain Implications Strategy Capabilities • Define clear, fact based approach to activating Last Mile ‒ Establish understanding into “should-cost” / “should-impact” drivers (e.g. cost drivers for crowdsource model, trigger point managing Uber like courier risks, etc.) ‒ Define clear inflection points between investing internal Same Day vs. 3PL managed vs. crowdsourced models (e.g. value of absolute performance vs. differentiation? First mover or Fast follow?) • In-market product availability – ensure upstream supply chain footprint and systems can support inventory replenishment processes and one-pool inventory visibility • Ensure Same Day requirements linked to omnichannel consumer promise and broader supply chain strategy at the category level • Determine which categories are candidates for same day delivery: (grocery, mobile devices, specialty products, high margin products) • Pilot and experiment with different Same Day models, do not dismiss models pre-maturely • Determine the reason for Same Day: drive sales, competitor requirements, marketing play/ excitement 3
  27. 27. 27 Building a flexible network with dynamic flows will be key for competitive performance Store DCs combo DCs Store Customer Suppliers Inter-store “hot run” replenish High velocity DC Slow mover replenish Store DSV (direct ship vendor) Right Mix of Flows Needed for Differentiated Performance SC Cost Service Variety INV Cost A B C D E E B C ✓✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ X-dock D Store-to-DC recirculate ✓ ✓ Nimble Connected Network Same / Next day 2-Next Day Store Fulfillment (Deliver or Collect) A Non-traditional supply chain flows ✓ Enable best possible Inbound Consolidate Inbound 4 Source: A.T. Kearney
  28. 28. 28 Lead Time Pick/Pack Cost .com Volume Assortment (Capacity) Store or Mini- Hub Picking Store Converted Warehouse High Velocity Eaches Warehouse Low Velocity Eaches Warehouse Same/Next Day Same/Next Day Next – 2 Day 2 – 3 Days Low (2-5K SKUs) Low (5-10K SKUs) Medium-High (15-50K SKUs) High (50-200K SKUs) Med-High ($1-2/unit) Low-Med ($1-2/unit) Low ($0.4-1/unit US) Med ($0.4-1.3/unit US) <1MM units/year <5MM units/year >5 MM units / year >5 MM units/year Nature of “In-Scope” Demand Fulfillment center design and solutions are also rapidly evolving Low Low Med-High CapEx Med-High 4 Source: A.T. Kearney
  29. 29. 29 Leveraging partners is also critical for flexibility and learning 3PLs and supplier direct ship as part of overall fulfillment VOLUME >25K orders/day 1-25K orders/day <0.5K orders/day PEAK Low Seasonal peak Moderate Seasonality Highly Seasonable SKU TYPE Fast Moving SKUs Fast + Medium Moving SKUs Long Tail SKUs EXPERIENCE Extensive In- House Fulfillment Experience Developing In- House Experience New Category AFFINITY High x-Category Affinity Medium x-Category Affinity Low x-Category Affinity In-House Operations 3PL Partnership Supplier Direct Ship • Optimize cost vs. service • Minimize over- investment • Invest with demand, not ahead of it • Grow and experiment long tail assortments • Disciplined learning IllustrativeCategory Profile 4 Source: A.T. Kearney Owned Shared On-Demand ? Outsourced
  30. 30. 30 Supply Chain Implications Strategy Capabilities LogisticsTechnology Organization • Priority – Geographic inventory planning – Store to store transportation – Distributed order management • Future – Inbound freight optimization – Dynamic order sourcing – 3rd party logistics integration • Priority – Centralized (PMO) for supply chain decision making – Integrated, customer-centric performance metrics • Future – Omnichannel culture – New employee capabilities • Priority – Real time inventory visibility “one pool” – POS (demand signal) integration with OM, Replenishment – Visible and accurate cost to serve – Dynamic channel decisions (direct vs. 3PL vs. DSV) • Future – Common item file – Local delivery TMS DC Fulfillment • Priority – Right level of automated material handling (voice, pick to light, Goods to Man) – WMS with flexible batch and wave picks – Conveyance for multiple flows (reverse, x-dock, expedited) • Future Capabilities – Product customization and personalization Iterative Design Rapid Analytics • Faster modeling and more predictive analytics – Collaboration with Merchandising, Finance, Sales on key modeling assumption and inputs – Embed “what-if” simulation capabilities – Embed predictive analytics (forecasting, replenishment) • Iterative refresh of supply chain design and strategy as part of annual planning cycle – Compress planning cycle (next generation supply chain is next 1-2 years) – Feedback and update from field experiments and pilots 4
  31. 31. 31 Future stores will be ambidextrous, combining the right mix of Consumer Experience and Local Fulfillment Consumer Experience Local Fulfillment Product Trial Allow shoppers to touch and feel products Treasure Hunt Incubate exclusive or little known brands exclusively Merchantainment Provide an exciting environment to engage consumers in-store Relationship Management Enhanced level of personalized service Click and Collect (In-Store / Drive-Thru) Pick, Pack and Ship (Same Day) Inter-Network Transfers Returns Getting the right balance will be key for retailers 5 Source: A.T. Kearney
  32. 32. 32 Related readings from A.T. Kearney Best Practices in Strategic Multichannel Fulfillment Is Your Supply Chain Ready for the Omnichannel Revolution? Heavy Lifting Required: A Large Format Home Delivery Breakthrough Global Retail E-Commerce Keeps on Clicking Recasting the Retail Store in Today’s Omnichannel World Brick and Mortar is the Foundation of Omnichannel Retailing
  33. 33. 33 Americas Atlanta Bogotá Boston Calgary Chicago Dallas Detroit Houston Mexico City New York Palo Alto San Francisco São Paulo Toronto Washington, D.C. Asia Pacific Bangkok Beijing Hong Kong Jakarta Kuala Lumpur Melbourne Mumbai New Delhi Seoul Shanghai Singapore Sydney Taipei Tokyo Europe Amsterdam Berlin Brussels Bucharest Budapest Copenhagen Düsseldorf Frankfurt Helsinki Istanbul Kiev Lisbon Ljubljana London Madrid Milan Moscow Munich Oslo Paris Prague Rome Stockholm Stuttgart Vienna Warsaw Zurich Middle East and Africa Abu Dhabi Doha Dubai Johannesburg Manama Riyadh A.T. Kearney is a leading global management consulting firm with offices in more than 40 countries. Since 1926, we have been trusted advisors to the world's foremost organizations. A.T. Kearney is a partner-owned firm, committed to helping clients achieve immediate impact and growing advantage on their most mission- critical issues. For more information, visit www.atkearney.com.

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