Mihail Peleah, Andrey Ivanov, UNDP Bratislava Regional Center Presentation for HDCA 2013 Conference 10-12 September 2013, Managua, Nicaragua

1. What makes people socially
excluded?
Role of drivers, individual characteristics and local
conditions.
Mihail Peleah, Andrey Ivanov,
UNDP Bratislava Regional Center
Presentation for HDCA 2013 Conference
10-12 September 2013, Managua, Nicaragua

2. Drivers of social exclusion
Specific local conditions
Social exclusion status
Individual characteristics
interact
with
in context of
…and result in
Structures and institutions; values and
behavior patterns; policies
Drivers are external factors, influenced by
legacies, that either speed up or slow
down the process of individual
vulnerabilities turning into social
exclusion
(social exclusion risk factors),
like poor education, disability,
minority status
Predominant industry, single or multiple
employment opportunities, local
infrastructures, history of violent conflict
or environmental disaster
of the individual in three dimensions—
exclusion from economic life, social
services, and civic and social
participation
Social Exclusion Chain

3. HOW WE MEASURE SOCIAL
EXCLUSION STATUS?

4. Social Exclusion Index
• Objective and multidimensional
measure of social exclusion
• Measure status excluded or non-excluded,
not ‘perception’ or ‘risk’
• Applicable for Europe and Central Asia
region
• Useful for policymaking

5. Data sources
• Regional Survey for RHDR (2009)
• Kazakhstan and Tajikistan
• Moldova and Ukraine
• Macedonia FYR and Serbia
• + Armenia: Social Cohesion Study (2010)
• Compatible with the Regional Survey
• Includes sub-national level
• Serbia
• Secondary source contextualization
• Roma and IDP

6. Construction of index
• Based on Alkire-Foster (2009)
• 3 areas of exclusion
– Economic exclusion
– Exclusion from
– Exclusion from civic and political participation
• 24 indicators, 8 per area
• Exclusion is overlapping deprivations
• Threshold is 9 out of 24

7. Social Exclusion Index
H—Social Exclusion Headcount
Sensitive to breadth, not depth of exclusion
H=0.600 (3 out of 5)
A—Average Share of Deprivations among Excluded
Sensitive to depth of exclusion
A=0.569
M0=H A—Social Exclusion Index▪
Sensitive both to breadth and depth of exclusion
M0=0.600•0.569=0.341

9. Profiles of exclusison

10. DRIVERS OF EXCLUSION

11. Drivers of Exclusion
• Structural or institutional drivers
• Values and behavioural patterns
• Policies

17. Corruption: Supply and Tolerance

18. Attitudes matter

19. PERSONAL CHARACTERISTICS

20. Different combinations of individual risks and local
context results in different levels of social exclusion
Average
Capital or
economic center
Small town
Village
Average risk of exclusion in the region
hides significant territorial differences…
Individual vulnerabilities (like
disability) interact with local
conditions and amplify exclusion
Disabled doesn’t mean
automatically excluded!
Local conditions matter
Source: RHDR “Beyond Transition: Toward Inclusive Societies”, 2011

21. Cycles of exclusion

22. LOCAL CONDITIONS

23. Three steps
• Regional study
– In-study contextual data
– Contextualization by experts
• Armenia
– Secondary sources at regional level
• Serbia
– Secondary sources at municipal level
– Extended set of indicators
– Some econometrics

24. Secondary Source
Contextualization
Survey
Administrative
datasets
Statistical
databases

25. Local economy matters

26. Serbia: Social Exclusion and
Health

27. Serbia: Social Exclusion and
Education

28. Serbia: Social Exclusion and
Employment

29. Regression: Mixed picture
Full set Booster Full set Booster
ind OLS ind OLS best MLS best MLS
lactrate Activity rate (%) +0.002 -0.046
lorgemp Employed in enterprise, institutions, cooperatives and other
organizations (total, %)
-0.046 +0.038 -0.028
lagric Agriculture, forestry and water works (%) +0.068 -0.394
lromashare Share of Roma in settlement +0.217 -0.486
lcurrevpc Current revenues (in RSD thousands) per capita -0.028 -0.110 -0.036 -0.066
ldistcap Distance from capital (by car) +0.004 +0.032
ldistuni Distance to nearest university -0.011 +0.095 -0.028
ldistrest Distance to nearest restaurant -0.000 +0.092
ldisthosp Distance to nearest hospital +0.032 +0.088
lbirth1000w Birth rate per 1000 women -0.050 -0.435 -0.052
ldeath1000 Number of deaths per year per 1000 +0.232 -0.804
lpupsch Number of pupils in primary schools per school -0.002 +0.002
lchisch Number of children in preschool institutions per institution -0.003 +0.006 +0.019
lchi1000 Number of children in preschool institutions per 1000 children 5-9 -0.005 -0.001 -0.005
ldoc1000 Number of doctors per capita per 1000 people -0.185 -2.175
lvoted Number of voters who casted their vote in last elections per 100
person adult population (share of those who casted)
-0.001 +0.218 +0.488
nperhh Number of persons in household -0.165 +0.771
nkids14hh Number of children under 14 in household -0.189 +1.389 -0.311 +1.204
v15 Age of respondent +0.063 -0.005
p_isdsbld Main respondent has disability or long-term illenss +2.600 +3.220 +2.432 +2.519

30. COMBINING PIECES OF PUZZLE

31. Different combinations of individual risks, drivers and local
context results in different levels of social exclusion
If you are young person, with low education, living in village, with single company—you face
high risk of exclusion
…and secondary education doesn’t help much in these conditions…
…while vibrant business environment makes a lot of difference
…economic centers offer more opportunities (even with low education)
…and much more if you are educated
+
+
+
+ + +Source: RHDR “Beyond Transition: Toward Inclusive Societies”, 2011