On this presentation Sean Udal covers various topics such as FireEye (FEYE), the Security Super Cycle, IPOs, Wearables and top investing ideas for 2014.
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Sean Udal is the Author of Minyanville’s TechStrat Report. Sean has 20+ years of experience in researching and trading technology stocks.
Sean serves as CFO of Cre8tfutures LLC, a Technology Consulting firm specializing in disruptive market changes and strategy implementation.
Follow Sean on Twitter: @UdallTechStrat
Interimreport1 January–31 March2024 Elo Mutual Pension Insurance Company
2014 Tech Sector Outlook By Sean Udall
1. 2014 Tech Stock Outlook
1
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2. Our Special Guest:
Sean Udall
2
• Author of Minyanville’s TechStrat Report.
– www.minyanville.com/techstrat
• 20+ years of experience in researching and trading
technology stocks.
• Formerly of: Morgan Stanley, Salomon Smith Barney.
• Serves as CFO of Cre8tfutures LLC, a Technology
Consulting firm specializing in disruptive market
changes and strategy implementation.
• Follow Sean on Twitter: @UdallTechStrat
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3. 3
Extended Outperformance?
• Tech Advantages Still Hold:
– Outstanding revenue/earnings growth relative to
valuation.
– Superior ROE in rising inflation world.
– Upside Black Swan potential?
• Obstacles (look to the unexpected):
– Macro is now good. What could hurt it?
– Emerging bubble, potential worry.
– Could cyber security breaches cause an ugly correction?
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1/23/2014
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4. 4
Topics:
1) Apple: 64-bit, touch ID, big screen coming, what else?
2) Wearables
3) FireEye & the security super cycle.
4) M&A returned in 2013. Will it go into silly mode?
5) Emerging networking leaving the old guard behind?
6) IPOs – Square, Dropbox, and Palantir (OH MY!)
7) Top names into earnings, market call.
Bonus – Twitter followed Facebook home run. What’s next?
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5. 5
AAPL, Focus on the Forest?
• Yes Indeed.
– More conviction in my “great disruptor is BACK”
thesis.
– 64-bit + Touch ID = huge innovation lead.
– Security/payments will come.
– Market share gain thesis is underway.
– Big screen iPhone is next key!
– AAPL will assault digital marketplace and margins
could expand further.
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6. 6
Wearables – My Vision
• Google Glass has an early lead. But does
Apple pull an iPod on the industry?
– Next secular consumer driver.
– GOOG Glass should be great, but…
– AAPL will probably start slow and gain share as
multiple products emerge. Discerning Markets?
– Watch out for the Semi’s. SOX is in breakout
mode, wearables could be next secular driver.
– I see 30-50% growth from medical devices for
years, AAPL will likely dominate this category.
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7. 6
FEYE and Security Super
Cycle
• Security Super Cycle – My thesis has
arrived
–
–
–
–
–
Next secular enterprise theme.
FireEye (FEYE): the next CSCO/AAPL?
Target security issue isn’t a Target issue.
This space is a playground for the disruptors.
PANW in the mix. But Palantir is likely the next
closest thing to FEYE.
– FEYE has doubled - another coming.
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1/23/2014
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8. 7
M&A Does it get Silly?
• M&A saw strong gains last year. It seems
poised to accelerate.
• Software will always be strong space –
TIBX/BSFT etc.?
• Security – can incumbents sit back and do
nothing?
• Network/Security Convergence – RVBD etc…
• Payments
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1/23/2014
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9. 8
Emerging Networking
leaving Old Guard behind?
• CSCO… whoa is me!
• JNPR has to do a deal.
• CIEN sits in a very nice position – 100G and
beyond.
• FFIV similar, in nice position in its respective
space.
• GIMO/BLOX and XXIA entered the vertical.
• M&A could/should see action.
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1/23/2014
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10. 9
Let’s talk IPOs – Square,
Dropbox and Palantir
• Remember “FEYE is the next Splunk
(SPLK)”?
• Square -- The next Visa/MA/PayPal?
• Palantir – The next FEYE?
• Dropbox – The next hmmm, hard to comp.
• Yes, TWTR was 180 degrees different than
FB in early trading!!
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1/23/2014
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11. 10
Thoughts on Earnings
Season/Market Call.
• Bullish – AAPL, TWTR, FFIV and most
TechStrat portfolio names.
• EBAY – Square coming so needs to be
“good enough” for potential big move.
• Overall, Q1 EPS season is off to good start.
Better upside reports coming in next few
weeks.
• My Market call is still big up/down move.
1998 as potential mirror.
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1/23/2014
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12. 12
Q&A/Thank you for attending!
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1/23/2014
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