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2014 Tech Stock Outlook

1

PRESENTATION TITLE

CONFIDENTIAL

Minyanville Media, Inc.
support@minyanville.com
212•991•6200
Our Special Guest:
Sean Udall

2

• Author of Minyanville’s TechStrat Report.
– www.minyanville.com/techstrat
• 20+ years of experience in researching and trading
technology stocks.
• Formerly of: Morgan Stanley, Salomon Smith Barney.
• Serves as CFO of Cre8tfutures LLC, a Technology
Consulting firm specializing in disruptive market
changes and strategy implementation.
• Follow Sean on Twitter: @UdallTechStrat

PRESENTATION TITLE

CONFIDENTIAL

Minyanville Media, Inc.
support@minyanville.com
212•991•6200
3

Extended Outperformance?
• Tech Advantages Still Hold:
– Outstanding revenue/earnings growth relative to
valuation.
– Superior ROE in rising inflation world.
– Upside Black Swan potential?

• Obstacles (look to the unexpected):
– Macro is now good. What could hurt it?
– Emerging bubble, potential worry.
– Could cyber security breaches cause an ugly correction?

PRESENTATION TITLE

1/23/2014

CONFIDENTIAL

Minyanville Media, Inc.
support@minyanville.com
212•991•6200
4

Topics:
1) Apple: 64-bit, touch ID, big screen coming, what else?
2) Wearables
3) FireEye & the security super cycle.
4) M&A returned in 2013. Will it go into silly mode?
5) Emerging networking leaving the old guard behind?
6) IPOs – Square, Dropbox, and Palantir (OH MY!)
7) Top names into earnings, market call.
Bonus – Twitter followed Facebook home run. What’s next?

PRESENTATION TITLE

1/23/2014

CONFIDENTIAL

Minyanville Media, Inc.
support@minyanville.com
212•991•6200
5

AAPL, Focus on the Forest?
• Yes Indeed.
– More conviction in my “great disruptor is BACK”
thesis.
– 64-bit + Touch ID = huge innovation lead.
– Security/payments will come.
– Market share gain thesis is underway.
– Big screen iPhone is next key!
– AAPL will assault digital marketplace and margins
could expand further.

PRESENTATION TITLE

1/23/2014

CONFIDENTIAL

Minyanville Media, Inc.
support@minyanville.com
212•991•6200
6

Wearables – My Vision
• Google Glass has an early lead. But does
Apple pull an iPod on the industry?
– Next secular consumer driver.
– GOOG Glass should be great, but…
– AAPL will probably start slow and gain share as
multiple products emerge. Discerning Markets?
– Watch out for the Semi’s. SOX is in breakout
mode, wearables could be next secular driver.
– I see 30-50% growth from medical devices for
years, AAPL will likely dominate this category.
PRESENTATION TITLE

1/23/2014

CONFIDENTIAL

Minyanville Media, Inc.
support@minyanville.com
212•991•6200
6

FEYE and Security Super
Cycle
• Security Super Cycle – My thesis has
arrived
–
–
–
–
–

Next secular enterprise theme.
FireEye (FEYE): the next CSCO/AAPL?
Target security issue isn’t a Target issue.
This space is a playground for the disruptors.
PANW in the mix. But Palantir is likely the next
closest thing to FEYE.
– FEYE has doubled - another coming.

PRESENTATION TITLE

1/23/2014

CONFIDENTIAL

Minyanville Media, Inc.
support@minyanville.com
212•991•6200
7

M&A Does it get Silly?
• M&A saw strong gains last year. It seems
poised to accelerate.
• Software will always be strong space –
TIBX/BSFT etc.?
• Security – can incumbents sit back and do
nothing?
• Network/Security Convergence – RVBD etc…
• Payments

PRESENTATION TITLE

1/23/2014

CONFIDENTIAL

Minyanville Media, Inc.
support@minyanville.com
212•991•6200
8

Emerging Networking
leaving Old Guard behind?
• CSCO… whoa is me!
• JNPR has to do a deal.
• CIEN sits in a very nice position – 100G and
beyond.
• FFIV similar, in nice position in its respective
space.
• GIMO/BLOX and XXIA entered the vertical.
• M&A could/should see action.
PRESENTATION TITLE

1/23/2014

CONFIDENTIAL

Minyanville Media, Inc.
support@minyanville.com
212•991•6200
9

Let’s talk IPOs – Square,
Dropbox and Palantir
• Remember “FEYE is the next Splunk
(SPLK)”?
• Square -- The next Visa/MA/PayPal?
• Palantir – The next FEYE?
• Dropbox – The next hmmm, hard to comp.
• Yes, TWTR was 180 degrees different than
FB in early trading!!

PRESENTATION TITLE

1/23/2014

CONFIDENTIAL

Minyanville Media, Inc.
support@minyanville.com
212•991•6200
10

Thoughts on Earnings
Season/Market Call.
• Bullish – AAPL, TWTR, FFIV and most
TechStrat portfolio names.
• EBAY – Square coming so needs to be
“good enough” for potential big move.
• Overall, Q1 EPS season is off to good start.
Better upside reports coming in next few
weeks.
• My Market call is still big up/down move.
1998 as potential mirror.
PRESENTATION TITLE

1/23/2014

CONFIDENTIAL

Minyanville Media, Inc.
support@minyanville.com
212•991•6200
12

Q&A/Thank you for attending!
For information on subscribing to Minyanville’s TechStrat
Report by Sean Udall, head to Minyanville.com/TechStrat today.
Follow Sean on Twitter: @UdallTechstrat
For a copy of this presentation, email us at
buzz@minyanville.com.

PRESENTATION TITLE

1/23/2014

CONFIDENTIAL

Minyanville Media, Inc.
support@minyanville.com
212•991•6200

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2014 Tech Sector Outlook By Sean Udall

  • 1. 2014 Tech Stock Outlook 1 PRESENTATION TITLE CONFIDENTIAL Minyanville Media, Inc. support@minyanville.com 212•991•6200
  • 2. Our Special Guest: Sean Udall 2 • Author of Minyanville’s TechStrat Report. – www.minyanville.com/techstrat • 20+ years of experience in researching and trading technology stocks. • Formerly of: Morgan Stanley, Salomon Smith Barney. • Serves as CFO of Cre8tfutures LLC, a Technology Consulting firm specializing in disruptive market changes and strategy implementation. • Follow Sean on Twitter: @UdallTechStrat PRESENTATION TITLE CONFIDENTIAL Minyanville Media, Inc. support@minyanville.com 212•991•6200
  • 3. 3 Extended Outperformance? • Tech Advantages Still Hold: – Outstanding revenue/earnings growth relative to valuation. – Superior ROE in rising inflation world. – Upside Black Swan potential? • Obstacles (look to the unexpected): – Macro is now good. What could hurt it? – Emerging bubble, potential worry. – Could cyber security breaches cause an ugly correction? PRESENTATION TITLE 1/23/2014 CONFIDENTIAL Minyanville Media, Inc. support@minyanville.com 212•991•6200
  • 4. 4 Topics: 1) Apple: 64-bit, touch ID, big screen coming, what else? 2) Wearables 3) FireEye & the security super cycle. 4) M&A returned in 2013. Will it go into silly mode? 5) Emerging networking leaving the old guard behind? 6) IPOs – Square, Dropbox, and Palantir (OH MY!) 7) Top names into earnings, market call. Bonus – Twitter followed Facebook home run. What’s next? PRESENTATION TITLE 1/23/2014 CONFIDENTIAL Minyanville Media, Inc. support@minyanville.com 212•991•6200
  • 5. 5 AAPL, Focus on the Forest? • Yes Indeed. – More conviction in my “great disruptor is BACK” thesis. – 64-bit + Touch ID = huge innovation lead. – Security/payments will come. – Market share gain thesis is underway. – Big screen iPhone is next key! – AAPL will assault digital marketplace and margins could expand further. PRESENTATION TITLE 1/23/2014 CONFIDENTIAL Minyanville Media, Inc. support@minyanville.com 212•991•6200
  • 6. 6 Wearables – My Vision • Google Glass has an early lead. But does Apple pull an iPod on the industry? – Next secular consumer driver. – GOOG Glass should be great, but… – AAPL will probably start slow and gain share as multiple products emerge. Discerning Markets? – Watch out for the Semi’s. SOX is in breakout mode, wearables could be next secular driver. – I see 30-50% growth from medical devices for years, AAPL will likely dominate this category. PRESENTATION TITLE 1/23/2014 CONFIDENTIAL Minyanville Media, Inc. support@minyanville.com 212•991•6200
  • 7. 6 FEYE and Security Super Cycle • Security Super Cycle – My thesis has arrived – – – – – Next secular enterprise theme. FireEye (FEYE): the next CSCO/AAPL? Target security issue isn’t a Target issue. This space is a playground for the disruptors. PANW in the mix. But Palantir is likely the next closest thing to FEYE. – FEYE has doubled - another coming. PRESENTATION TITLE 1/23/2014 CONFIDENTIAL Minyanville Media, Inc. support@minyanville.com 212•991•6200
  • 8. 7 M&A Does it get Silly? • M&A saw strong gains last year. It seems poised to accelerate. • Software will always be strong space – TIBX/BSFT etc.? • Security – can incumbents sit back and do nothing? • Network/Security Convergence – RVBD etc… • Payments PRESENTATION TITLE 1/23/2014 CONFIDENTIAL Minyanville Media, Inc. support@minyanville.com 212•991•6200
  • 9. 8 Emerging Networking leaving Old Guard behind? • CSCO… whoa is me! • JNPR has to do a deal. • CIEN sits in a very nice position – 100G and beyond. • FFIV similar, in nice position in its respective space. • GIMO/BLOX and XXIA entered the vertical. • M&A could/should see action. PRESENTATION TITLE 1/23/2014 CONFIDENTIAL Minyanville Media, Inc. support@minyanville.com 212•991•6200
  • 10. 9 Let’s talk IPOs – Square, Dropbox and Palantir • Remember “FEYE is the next Splunk (SPLK)”? • Square -- The next Visa/MA/PayPal? • Palantir – The next FEYE? • Dropbox – The next hmmm, hard to comp. • Yes, TWTR was 180 degrees different than FB in early trading!! PRESENTATION TITLE 1/23/2014 CONFIDENTIAL Minyanville Media, Inc. support@minyanville.com 212•991•6200
  • 11. 10 Thoughts on Earnings Season/Market Call. • Bullish – AAPL, TWTR, FFIV and most TechStrat portfolio names. • EBAY – Square coming so needs to be “good enough” for potential big move. • Overall, Q1 EPS season is off to good start. Better upside reports coming in next few weeks. • My Market call is still big up/down move. 1998 as potential mirror. PRESENTATION TITLE 1/23/2014 CONFIDENTIAL Minyanville Media, Inc. support@minyanville.com 212•991•6200
  • 12. 12 Q&A/Thank you for attending! For information on subscribing to Minyanville’s TechStrat Report by Sean Udall, head to Minyanville.com/TechStrat today. Follow Sean on Twitter: @UdallTechstrat For a copy of this presentation, email us at buzz@minyanville.com. PRESENTATION TITLE 1/23/2014 CONFIDENTIAL Minyanville Media, Inc. support@minyanville.com 212•991•6200