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Managing and Sustaining Profitable Growth

Growth Strategy and
Value Creation of XL Axiata
Pramita Wardani | 1140003121




                                            1
CONTENTS
           •   XL Axiata at glance
           •   Macro Environment Analysis
           •   Industry Granularity Analysis
           •   XL Axiata Internal Environment
           •   XL Axiata Financial Review
           •   Conclusion and Recommendation




                                                2
XL Axiata
at Glance




            3
PT XL Axiata Tbk is one of Indonesia’s leading cellular service provider, offering various
types of telecommunications products and services such as :
Voice | SMS | Data | Other value-added mobile products & services
                                                         Growth Strategy and Value Creation of XL Axiata | 4
Macro Environment Analysis




                             Growth Strategy and Value Creation of XL Axiata | 5
Macro Environment Analysis

PESTEL Analysis
                             •   There is no political events related to
                                 telecommunications



                                                                            Good economic
The telecommunication                                                       growth, and
law prohibits                                                               Indonesia is
monopolistic practices                                                      having a raise in
and unfair competition                                                      GDP.


                                                                             The social
                                                                             networkers
                                                                             are also
                                                                             expanding as
                                                                             well

        Go green society

                                                 The technology
                                                 changes is rapidly


                                          Growth Strategy and Value Creation of XL Axiata | 6
Industry Granularity
Analysis
•   Key Industry Players
•   Porter 5 Forces
•   Competitive Landscape
•   Telecommunication Trends




                               7
Industry Granularity Analysis

Key Industry Players
                                       Telecommunication Market Share
                                       (Indonesia, 2011)




   Indonesia local telecommunication
   shares foreign ownership




                                              Growth Strategy and Value Creation of XL Axiata | 8
Industry Granularity Analysis
                                                               Alcatel-Lucent is targeting Asia. Now
Porter 5 Forces                      Potential New             they already have a strong relationship
                                                               with Indosat and Telkom to expand
                                       Entrants |
Telecommunication Industry                                     their business in Indonesia.
in Indonesia Year 2012                MODERATE



                Suppliers                                                                         Buyers
               Bargaining                                                                       Bargaining
              Power | HIGH                  Industry Rivalry | HIGH                            Power | HIGH


     Ranging from the packaging,                                                             Most people are not only
     card production, BTS rental,                                                            price sensitive but also wants
     headphones, IT provides,                                                                a good services and networks
     music label.




                                           The substitute of     Substitute
                                                                  Substitute
                                      mobile phone is fixed      Products ||
                                      line and also internet
                                                                  Products
                                        connection through
                                                                 MODERATE
                                                                    HIGH
                                    laptops using lan cable

                                                                     Growth Strategy and Value Creation of XL Axiata | 9
Industry Granularity Analysis

Competitive Landscape
Year 2010




The competitive landscape of
Telecommunication industry
in Indonesia year 2010




                                Growth Strategy and Value Creation of XL Axiata | 10
Industry Granularity Analysis

Telecommunication Trends
                                                    Mobile Phone Trend in 2009-2016




  •   The buyers in the mobile
      phone market grew by 23,55
      and the trend is increasing.
  •   In the 3G usage are also
      increasing 25% in year 2011.
  •   This is the impact of the
      increasing usage of Blackberry,
      Iphones, Ipad, and others
      smartphones or tablets.
                                        Source : BMI, 2011




                                                              Growth Strategy and Value Creation of XL Axiata |11
XL Axiata Internal Environment
        •   Growth Decomposition
        •   Staircase
        •   Capability Platforms
        •   Business Model
        •   The 3 Horizon and Growth Map




                                 Business Model Break out Strategy through Online Learning for Professionals |12
XL Axiata Internal Environment

GROWTH Decomposition
by product category YEAR 2007-2010
                                                            Share                    Revenue               Revenue
       Segment              Portfolio                 M&A
                                                            Gain                     Growth                 CAGR
                            Momentum
     Non-Voice
                                                                                        874

           SMS                                                                                        874    9%
      Data & Vas                                                                                   5,615     122%

            Voice                                                                                            100%
                                                                                                  4,569


         Others                                                                           2,849
                                                                                                             23%

            TOTAL                                                                                 13,907

                     2007 2008 2009 2010      CAGR
Non Voice
              SMS     -1%    14%   34% -9%       9%
      Data and Vas   142%   106%   84% 156%    122%
Voice                 55%   -13%   20% 16%      19%
Others               118%   166%   15% 0%      100%
total                 45%    14%   27% 7%       23%
                                                               Growth Strategy and Value Creation of XL Axiata | 13
XL Axiata Internal Environment

XL Axiata Staircase
                                                                                                                        2011
                                                                                                        2010
                                                                                                                       Transformatio
                                                                                     2009                              n business
                                                                                                     Majority          strategy and
                                                                                                     shareholders
                                                                    2008                             of XL Axiata
                                                                                                                       focus to
                                                                                    Conducted                          affordable
                                                    2005                            Limited Public   released 20%      price an a new
                                                                  TM Group          Offering 1 to    their shares to   positioning
                                      2001                        demerger.         the              public
                                                 Telecom          Axiata            Shareholders
                    1997                         Malaaysia        acquired all XL   Pirsiant to
                                  Received a     bought 23,1%     shares
     1996                                                                           Right
                                  DCS 1800 and XL shares
                Develop an        fiber optic
                integrated                       XL go Public
  Obtained a                      backbone
                microcell                        offering 20%
  GSM 900
                network in        Issued its 1st of its shares
  operating
                Jakarta’s SCBD    IDR Bonds
  licenses                                        XL go Public
                Area              worth 1,25T
                                                  offering 20%
                                                  of its shares

 Capability Platforms:
    Well-designed Product offerings                • Continued Cost Management                       • Network Utilization
    Capitalize on Data Opportunity                 • Focused and Selective Capex                     • Develop Non-Traditional
                                                                                                       Revenue
                                                        Brand Development
                                                           BRAND DEVELOPMENT
                                                                               Growth Strategy and Value Creation of XL Axiata |14
XL Axiata Internal Environment

Capability Platform
                                 The success of XL Axiata is depends on their competencies
                                 and technology-know-how and also the commitment of the
                                 management.




                                                          Growth Strategy and Value Creation of XL Axiata |15
XL Axiata Internal Environment

Business Model
                                                        XL Axiata Business Model before year 2010



     •   Packaging             •    Internet      •   High Price        •    Customer              •    Personal
         Vendors                    Services          with low               Care 24               •    Corporate
     •   BTS Rentals           •    Customer          volume                 hours/day
     •   IT Providers               Services      •   Voice-Centric
                               •    Complicated   •   Data-Centric
                                    promotions    •   Domestic
                                                      Backbone
                                                  •   Various of
                                                      products
                                                      category
                           •       Marketing                            •    Website
                           •       Sales                                •    Branches
                           •       IT Services
                           •       Call Center
                                   Services



               BTS Rental | Network and                                 Voice | SMS | Data | Other value-
               infrastructure expand |                                  added mobile products & services |
               Maintenance equipment's |
               promotions




                                                                      Growth Strategy and Value Creation of XL Axiata |16
XL Axiata Internal Environment

Business Model
                                                             XL Axiata Business Model after year 2010



     •   Packaging                •    Internet     •   Low Price-         •    Customer              •    Personal
         Vendors                       Services         High Volume             Care 24               •    Corporate
     •   BTS Rentals              •    Customer     •   Single product          hours/day
     •   IT Providers                  Services     •   Voice-Centric
     •   Music Labels             •    Simple and   •   Data-Centric
     •   Collaboration                 attractive   •   Domestic
         with 3rd parties :            promotions       Backbone
         Blackberry,
         Iphone, Ipad,
         Samsung
                              •       Marketing                            •    Website
                              •       Sales                                •    Branches
                              •       IT Services                          •    Mobile
                              •       Call Center                               Applications
                                      Services                             •    Dealerships
                              •       Outsourcing


                BTS Rental | Network and                                   Voice | SMS | Data | Other value-
                infrastructure expand |                                    added mobile products & services |
                Maintenance equipment's |                                  Ringtones | collaboration with 3rd
                promotions                                                 parties




                                                                         Growth Strategy and Value Creation of XL Axiata |17
XL Axiata Internal Environment

Business Model


                                     High Price –              Low Price –
         Grand Strategy
                                     Low Volume                High Volume
     Functional Strategy
     •    Price                  •   High                             •    Low
     •    Product                •   Many Product Brands              •    Single Product
     •    Place                  •   Direct                           •    Dealership
     •    Promotion              •   Complicated                      •    Simple & Attractive




                                                    Growth Strategy and Value Creation of XL Axiata |18
XL Axiata Internal Environment

The 3 Horizon and Growth Map

                                                                                        HORIZON 3
                                                                                       Create viable
    Strong Tailwind                                       HORIZON 2                       option
                                                         Build emerging
                                    HORIZON 1              businesses
                                 Extend and defend
                                  core businesses

                                                                                      Expanding to
              PORTOFOLIO                                                           communication from
              MOMENTUM                                                             machine-to-machine
                                                                                       (M-to-M).

                                                       Expansion non-voice            Expanding to m-
              MERGER &                               data traffic with the help      commerce and m-
       ACQUSITION (M&A)                                 by Cisco Systems.                payment


                                  High Price – Low      Low Price – High            Invest heavily on
               SHARE GAIN             Volume                Volume                  3G/data Network


                                                             Growth Strategy and Value Creation of XL Axiata |19
Financial Analysis
   •   Industry Financial Highlight
   •   Average Revenue Per Usage




                                      20
Financial Review

Financial Highlights

                   CAGR:
                   6%    13%        2%   -1%   5%   10%   2%      -13%       23%      22%       29% -2883%




Legend :




           Source : Annual Report
           2007-2011                                           Growth Strategy and Value Creation of XL Axiata |21
Financial Review

Financial Ratio




 Legend :




 Source : Annual Report
 2007-2011

      No Ratio (%)   2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2007   2008 2009 2010 2011 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
         Margin
       1 EBITDA        65 60 61 58 57 51.65          48.52   46.47   48.46 45.74 41.9 42.2 44.7           52.7 49.4
       2 Margin EBIT   35 28 30 27 26 12.1            9.78    7.96    3.27 4.06   21 14.4 17.8            29.3 24.7
       3 ROA           33 24 24 21 22 4.51            3.63    2.72    1.23 1.6 1.6 -0.1 6.1               10.6 9.7
       4 ROE           55 43 45 38 35 12.34          10.79    8.34    3.63 4.55 5.7 -0.3 26.1             28.2 22.3

                                                                 Growth Strategy and Value Creation of XL Axiata |22
Financial Review

ARPU


                                                                                •   The revenue trend is
                                                                                    increasing while the ARPU
                                                                                    trend is declining.
                                                                                •   Telecommunication industry
                                                                                    is a very competitive
                                                                                    industry




                   No    Provider      2009      2010       2011       2012f        2013f         2014f         2015f
                    1   Telkomsel       48,000     40,000     32,065     28,440       25,672        23,571        22,249
                    2    Indosat        37,330     34,700     26,692     23,327       20,850        19,144        18,070
                    3   XL Axiata       38,000     32,000     28,761     26,260       23,704        21,549        20,341
                    4 Bakrie Telecom    29,000     24,000     17,879     14,925       13,076        11,768        10,888
                      Market Average    38,083     32,675     26,349     23,238       20,825        19,008        17,887

                                                                       Growth Strategy and Value Creation of XL Axiata |23
Conclusion and
Recommendation




                 Growth Strategy and Value Creation of XL Axiata |24
XL Axiata Internal Environment

Conclusion

                                              IHSG Growth 108%


                                 High
                                                           Growth GIANTS
                                                                       Revenue Growth
                                                                       : 23%
 Growth Performance Matrix                                             TRS : 116%

 In period 2007-2011
                                                                           Revenue
                                                                           Growth : 6%
                                                                           TRS : na              Indonesia
                                                                                                 GDP 5,65%
                                                           PERFORMERS



                                                                  Revenue
                                                                 Growth : 5%
                                                                   TRS : na

                                 Low

                                        Low                                       High


                                                    Growth Strategy and Value Creation of XL Axiata |25
Financial Review

Recommendations


                                     High                            Low

                          Stars                                Question Marks

                                                     •    4G Technology

                   High
                                                     •    HSPA+ ,
                                                     •     WIMAX
                           •   Cloud Computing       •    LTE
                           •   E-money


                          Cash Cow   Maintain                                  Dog
                                                         Voice –
                                     and                 centric
                   Low




                                     Building a
                                     BTS by the
                                     outsource
                                     company

                                     High                            Low


                                                 Growth Strategy and Value Creation of XL Axiata |26
Managing and Sustaining Profitable Growth

Growth Strategy and
Value Creation of XL Axiata
Pramita Wardani | 1140003121




                                            27

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Xl axiata growth strategy

  • 1. Managing and Sustaining Profitable Growth Growth Strategy and Value Creation of XL Axiata Pramita Wardani | 1140003121 1
  • 2. CONTENTS • XL Axiata at glance • Macro Environment Analysis • Industry Granularity Analysis • XL Axiata Internal Environment • XL Axiata Financial Review • Conclusion and Recommendation 2
  • 4. PT XL Axiata Tbk is one of Indonesia’s leading cellular service provider, offering various types of telecommunications products and services such as : Voice | SMS | Data | Other value-added mobile products & services Growth Strategy and Value Creation of XL Axiata | 4
  • 5. Macro Environment Analysis Growth Strategy and Value Creation of XL Axiata | 5
  • 6. Macro Environment Analysis PESTEL Analysis • There is no political events related to telecommunications Good economic The telecommunication growth, and law prohibits Indonesia is monopolistic practices having a raise in and unfair competition GDP. The social networkers are also expanding as well Go green society The technology changes is rapidly Growth Strategy and Value Creation of XL Axiata | 6
  • 7. Industry Granularity Analysis • Key Industry Players • Porter 5 Forces • Competitive Landscape • Telecommunication Trends 7
  • 8. Industry Granularity Analysis Key Industry Players Telecommunication Market Share (Indonesia, 2011) Indonesia local telecommunication shares foreign ownership Growth Strategy and Value Creation of XL Axiata | 8
  • 9. Industry Granularity Analysis Alcatel-Lucent is targeting Asia. Now Porter 5 Forces Potential New they already have a strong relationship with Indosat and Telkom to expand Entrants | Telecommunication Industry their business in Indonesia. in Indonesia Year 2012 MODERATE Suppliers Buyers Bargaining Bargaining Power | HIGH Industry Rivalry | HIGH Power | HIGH Ranging from the packaging, Most people are not only card production, BTS rental, price sensitive but also wants headphones, IT provides, a good services and networks music label. The substitute of Substitute Substitute mobile phone is fixed Products || line and also internet Products connection through MODERATE HIGH laptops using lan cable Growth Strategy and Value Creation of XL Axiata | 9
  • 10. Industry Granularity Analysis Competitive Landscape Year 2010 The competitive landscape of Telecommunication industry in Indonesia year 2010 Growth Strategy and Value Creation of XL Axiata | 10
  • 11. Industry Granularity Analysis Telecommunication Trends Mobile Phone Trend in 2009-2016 • The buyers in the mobile phone market grew by 23,55 and the trend is increasing. • In the 3G usage are also increasing 25% in year 2011. • This is the impact of the increasing usage of Blackberry, Iphones, Ipad, and others smartphones or tablets. Source : BMI, 2011 Growth Strategy and Value Creation of XL Axiata |11
  • 12. XL Axiata Internal Environment • Growth Decomposition • Staircase • Capability Platforms • Business Model • The 3 Horizon and Growth Map Business Model Break out Strategy through Online Learning for Professionals |12
  • 13. XL Axiata Internal Environment GROWTH Decomposition by product category YEAR 2007-2010 Share Revenue Revenue Segment Portfolio M&A Gain Growth CAGR Momentum Non-Voice 874 SMS 874 9% Data & Vas 5,615 122% Voice 100% 4,569 Others 2,849 23% TOTAL 13,907 2007 2008 2009 2010 CAGR Non Voice SMS -1% 14% 34% -9% 9% Data and Vas 142% 106% 84% 156% 122% Voice 55% -13% 20% 16% 19% Others 118% 166% 15% 0% 100% total 45% 14% 27% 7% 23% Growth Strategy and Value Creation of XL Axiata | 13
  • 14. XL Axiata Internal Environment XL Axiata Staircase 2011 2010 Transformatio 2009 n business Majority strategy and shareholders 2008 of XL Axiata focus to Conducted affordable 2005 Limited Public released 20% price an a new TM Group Offering 1 to their shares to positioning 2001 demerger. the public Telecom Axiata Shareholders 1997 Malaaysia acquired all XL Pirsiant to Received a bought 23,1% shares 1996 Right DCS 1800 and XL shares Develop an fiber optic integrated XL go Public Obtained a backbone microcell offering 20% GSM 900 network in Issued its 1st of its shares operating Jakarta’s SCBD IDR Bonds licenses XL go Public Area worth 1,25T offering 20% of its shares Capability Platforms: Well-designed Product offerings • Continued Cost Management • Network Utilization Capitalize on Data Opportunity • Focused and Selective Capex • Develop Non-Traditional Revenue Brand Development BRAND DEVELOPMENT Growth Strategy and Value Creation of XL Axiata |14
  • 15. XL Axiata Internal Environment Capability Platform The success of XL Axiata is depends on their competencies and technology-know-how and also the commitment of the management. Growth Strategy and Value Creation of XL Axiata |15
  • 16. XL Axiata Internal Environment Business Model XL Axiata Business Model before year 2010 • Packaging • Internet • High Price • Customer • Personal Vendors Services with low Care 24 • Corporate • BTS Rentals • Customer volume hours/day • IT Providers Services • Voice-Centric • Complicated • Data-Centric promotions • Domestic Backbone • Various of products category • Marketing • Website • Sales • Branches • IT Services • Call Center Services BTS Rental | Network and Voice | SMS | Data | Other value- infrastructure expand | added mobile products & services | Maintenance equipment's | promotions Growth Strategy and Value Creation of XL Axiata |16
  • 17. XL Axiata Internal Environment Business Model XL Axiata Business Model after year 2010 • Packaging • Internet • Low Price- • Customer • Personal Vendors Services High Volume Care 24 • Corporate • BTS Rentals • Customer • Single product hours/day • IT Providers Services • Voice-Centric • Music Labels • Simple and • Data-Centric • Collaboration attractive • Domestic with 3rd parties : promotions Backbone Blackberry, Iphone, Ipad, Samsung • Marketing • Website • Sales • Branches • IT Services • Mobile • Call Center Applications Services • Dealerships • Outsourcing BTS Rental | Network and Voice | SMS | Data | Other value- infrastructure expand | added mobile products & services | Maintenance equipment's | Ringtones | collaboration with 3rd promotions parties Growth Strategy and Value Creation of XL Axiata |17
  • 18. XL Axiata Internal Environment Business Model High Price – Low Price – Grand Strategy Low Volume High Volume Functional Strategy • Price • High • Low • Product • Many Product Brands • Single Product • Place • Direct • Dealership • Promotion • Complicated • Simple & Attractive Growth Strategy and Value Creation of XL Axiata |18
  • 19. XL Axiata Internal Environment The 3 Horizon and Growth Map HORIZON 3 Create viable Strong Tailwind HORIZON 2 option Build emerging HORIZON 1 businesses Extend and defend core businesses Expanding to PORTOFOLIO communication from MOMENTUM machine-to-machine (M-to-M). Expansion non-voice Expanding to m- MERGER & data traffic with the help commerce and m- ACQUSITION (M&A) by Cisco Systems. payment High Price – Low Low Price – High Invest heavily on SHARE GAIN Volume Volume 3G/data Network Growth Strategy and Value Creation of XL Axiata |19
  • 20. Financial Analysis • Industry Financial Highlight • Average Revenue Per Usage 20
  • 21. Financial Review Financial Highlights CAGR: 6% 13% 2% -1% 5% 10% 2% -13% 23% 22% 29% -2883% Legend : Source : Annual Report 2007-2011 Growth Strategy and Value Creation of XL Axiata |21
  • 22. Financial Review Financial Ratio Legend : Source : Annual Report 2007-2011 No Ratio (%) 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Margin 1 EBITDA 65 60 61 58 57 51.65 48.52 46.47 48.46 45.74 41.9 42.2 44.7 52.7 49.4 2 Margin EBIT 35 28 30 27 26 12.1 9.78 7.96 3.27 4.06 21 14.4 17.8 29.3 24.7 3 ROA 33 24 24 21 22 4.51 3.63 2.72 1.23 1.6 1.6 -0.1 6.1 10.6 9.7 4 ROE 55 43 45 38 35 12.34 10.79 8.34 3.63 4.55 5.7 -0.3 26.1 28.2 22.3 Growth Strategy and Value Creation of XL Axiata |22
  • 23. Financial Review ARPU • The revenue trend is increasing while the ARPU trend is declining. • Telecommunication industry is a very competitive industry No Provider 2009 2010 2011 2012f 2013f 2014f 2015f 1 Telkomsel 48,000 40,000 32,065 28,440 25,672 23,571 22,249 2 Indosat 37,330 34,700 26,692 23,327 20,850 19,144 18,070 3 XL Axiata 38,000 32,000 28,761 26,260 23,704 21,549 20,341 4 Bakrie Telecom 29,000 24,000 17,879 14,925 13,076 11,768 10,888 Market Average 38,083 32,675 26,349 23,238 20,825 19,008 17,887 Growth Strategy and Value Creation of XL Axiata |23
  • 24. Conclusion and Recommendation Growth Strategy and Value Creation of XL Axiata |24
  • 25. XL Axiata Internal Environment Conclusion IHSG Growth 108% High Growth GIANTS Revenue Growth : 23% Growth Performance Matrix TRS : 116% In period 2007-2011 Revenue Growth : 6% TRS : na Indonesia GDP 5,65% PERFORMERS Revenue Growth : 5% TRS : na Low Low High Growth Strategy and Value Creation of XL Axiata |25
  • 26. Financial Review Recommendations High Low Stars Question Marks • 4G Technology High • HSPA+ , • WIMAX • Cloud Computing • LTE • E-money Cash Cow Maintain Dog Voice – and centric Low Building a BTS by the outsource company High Low Growth Strategy and Value Creation of XL Axiata |26
  • 27. Managing and Sustaining Profitable Growth Growth Strategy and Value Creation of XL Axiata Pramita Wardani | 1140003121 27