1. Pre-Publication Draft Outline
Predictable Surprises & Global Malaise
A Cautionary Tale
by
V. Michael Mavaddat
Executive Vice President
Decision Strategies International, Inc.
January, 2009
Scenarios written in 1997 about the future of the United States within the global context
provide an intriguing demonstration of the power of scenario thinking if done with rigor.
Scenarios by their nature are not meant to be precise in foretelling specific future events.
Yet from time to time our client scenarios are actualized and validated with remarkable
accuracy.
In early 1997, a group of engineers, scientists, environmentalists, technologists,
historians, government and private sector managers and planners joined forces to develop
scenarios for the future of the US within the broader global geopolitical context. The
group developed four scenarios spanning a twenty year time horizon 1997 to 2020. These
scenarios were developed as an integral part of strategy development for one of the
Federal Government agencies with the intent of providing insights into the answers to the
following questions:
• What will be the political philosophy of US Government (size, structure)?
• What will be the nation’s infrastructure requirements in 2020?
• What are the future national security needs?
• What challenges will the nation and the global community face?
• Who controls and/or influences funding of government agencies?
We developed four
scenarios to delineate the
range of possible futures
as depicted by the
scenario matrix to the
right:
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2. Pre-Publication Draft Outline
Post-Industrial Renaissance is a scenario of world prosperity, growth, and peace, without
significant regional conflicts.
International cooperation marked the global approach to resolving problems, and a newly-
established international organization responded quickly to human and natural disasters.
Concerns about “family values” in the United States generated a robust right-wing
movement increasingly dominated by fundamentalists agitating for less government and
more state and local control.
The political climate spurred economic development, and the stock markets revealed
investor faith in a strong economy.
The Retirement Security Act successfully addressed problems posed by the growing
number of retirees and lower interest rates made borrowing more attractive.
New laws to ensure the financial integrity of company financial practices resulted in
millions of new stock investors.
In 1997 the Post Industrial Renaissance scenario was deemed the most likely scenario to
actualize over the next ten years.
Events and predictable surprises since 1997…
Rise of Islamic Jihadism
Collapse of Twin Towers in New York City on 9/11/01
A Global War starts in 2001 with new frontiers (Afghanistan) and new enemies (Taliban
and Al Qaeda)
Ethnic rivalries flare and non-state actors and organizations threaten peace
Government transformation & consolidation results in the creation of Department of
Homeland Security
Old conflicts such as the Israeli Palestinian conflict continue and the US military finds
itself with a new mission in Iraq.
Natural disasters shock the planet and take their toll: the Tsunami, Hurricane Katrina
International institutions such as NATO, UN Security Council lack sufficient power and
influence to deal with geopolitical instability. Russia attacks former Soviet Republics.
Financial Crisis of 2008 results in bank failures around the globe and forces governments
to step-in and bailout insolvent companies
Asset price deflation gathers force with real estate and equity prices plummeting
The pattern of the events that occurred over the last ten years does not support the
actualization of Post-Industrial Renaissance scenario as those involved with the effort had
so confidently predicted in 1997. The pattern of events closely matches the Global Malaise
scenario and
In 2009 -- Global Malaise Actualizes
“Several western governments had initiated tax cuts favorable to big business. This policy
concentrated wealth and lowered income into government treasuries. Bank credit
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3. Pre-Publication Draft Outline
became ever tighter. Stocks and real estate prices fell sharply. Governments hungry
for reelection panicked as asset [price] deflation gathered force. They attempted to
counter the contraction with easy money. The United States Federal Reserve and other
central banks, especially the Bank of Japan, bought up the bad debts of insolvent
institutions, including some major banks and corporations. Central banks around the
world become holding companies of insolvent institutions. They ended up owning many
banks, a few insurance companies, and a great deal of real estate. . . .By 2008 the
country was in recession. The middle class diminished as millions lost their life savings
in the market crash. The poor grew desperate as many social programs such as energy
support, housing, medical, and childcare was eliminated or reduced to token levels.”
“The Democrats won the 2012 president election, bringing the first minority to the
office of Vice President. The election reflected continued voter demands for social
reform.”
-- From the text of Global Malaise scenario, 1997
Scenarios, Monitoring & Acting on Weak Signals
Scenarios and external monitoring provide us with the tools for navigating the future and
enable us to act on and benefit from weak signals.
Today vigilant leaders and their organizations should ask:
Are we listening?
How are we interpreting and acting on weak signals?
Are we dynamically adjusting our strategy?
Is there a “system” in place to identify, interpret and adapt to weak signals?
Are we anticipating, adapting, and acting to win?
If your organization does not have the systems and process and tools in place to embrace
uncertainty and prepare to create value amidst turbulence and chaos, now is the time to
address this deficiency.
Challenged by the Task of Managing in Turbulent Times?
We can help you!
Contact Michael Mavaddat
e-mail: mavaddat@thinkdsi.com
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