1. Can owning a cell phone replace the desire to own a car? The emerging entrepreneurs who are mashing-up intelligence + transportation in developing Asia Albert Ching Masters of City Planning Candidate, 2012 Research Assistant, Future of Urban Mobility Singapore

3. Mobile environment extremely competitive with some applications like mobile banking ahead of most developed contexts

6. Entrepreneurs themselves may not want free access to technology since it helps preserve their competitive advantage and off the shelf technology still needs to be localized

8. Rush hour traffic in Bangkok

9. Rush hour traffic in Kuala Lumpur

10. The private auto lock-in* death spiral (city-scale) City expands “Transport infrastructure in the next 5-10 years to support motorization will lock-in transport-related CO2 emission patterns for the coming 20-30 years in Asia”(ADB 2009) 2 Poor pedestrian walkways Investment in road infrastructure* 1 “The poor typically make 20-30% less trips and rely much more on non-motorised and public transport. The poor have a more limited range of destinations, being more focused on core destinations”(GTZ Sourcebook 2002) Public transport poor Gov’t with limited resources Low ridership Mass transit extremely costly, difficult to implement, and does not reduce congestion (Gakenheimer 2011) Poor with limited mobility Increases congestion “Transport-related CO2 emissions expected to increase 57% worldwide from 2005-30 . . . the majority of these will come from private vehicles”(ADB 2009) Middle- & upper-class purchase private 2- or 4-wheeler* Air pollution 3 Unsustainable levels of CO2 + GHGs

11. The private auto lock-in* death spiral (rational consumer) Cost per trip Quality of mobility(no. of trips, accessibility to destinations, comfort, convenience, productivity) Private auto 1 Private 2-wheeler In developing Asia where public transport and non-motorised options are poor, the quality of mobility increases significantly with access to private vehicles 2 Once consumers are locked-in, they may not perceive the effective increase in cost per trip “The costs of a single automobile journey are systematically underestimated because they are perceived primarily in terms of fuel costs” (UNEP 2009) Para-transit Bicycle Public transport Walk -ing Private 2-wheeler Bicycle Private auto Personal income Auto lock-in*

12. The private auto lock-in* death spiral (aspirational consumer) The demand for private car use is inelastic and in part a result of the billions of dollars spent by the automotive industry (Gardener and Abraham 2007)

13. Most cities in developing Asia still with low per capita incomes and motorization rates Sydney / Melbourne ($34K, 630) Car ownership income threshold Acharya & Morichi(2007) $5-$6,000 PPP Autos per 1000 people 2 Unrestrained motorization In previous studies, strongest determinant of car ownership rates was income levels Tokyo*($30K, 275) Kuala Lumpur($12K, 270) Seoul*($23K, 220) Bangkok($7K, ~200) Singapore ($43K, 150) Restrained motorization 1 3 Low motorization Beijing / Shanghai($7K, 80) Hong Kong($39K, 80) Jakarta($4K, 50) Manilla($3K, 30) Bangalore($3K, 12) Per capita income (2009 Fixed $PPP) Dhaka($1K, 2) Source: Barter (1999) updated with current statistics from Wikipedia / Gapminder *Income figures only available at country level; Motorization 2004 figures Significant car ownership aspiration (Source: AC Nielson)

14. . . . although lock-in may happen at lower motorization rates due to developing Asia’s higher densities Sydney / Melbourne (630, 20) Autos per 1000 people Do higher densities limit short-term motorization and/or eventually lead to lower density development? Tokyo*(275, 50) Kuala Lumpur(240, 8) Seoul*(220, 90) Bangkok(~200, 65) Singapore (150, 93) Auto lock-in line Beijing / Shanghai (80, 150) Hong Kong(80, 70) Jakarta(50, 100) Manilla(30, 78) Bangalore(12, 130) Low motorization cities all expected to increase urban populations by 10-90% Dhaka(2, 89) Urban density(Persons per hectare) Source: Acharya and Morichi (2005) updated with current statistics from Wikipedia / Gapminder *Motorization 2004 figures

15. Improve Auto-Substitutes 2 1 Manage private motorization Improve mobility of the ‘car and 2-wheeler-less’ Invest in new public/shared transport assets & infrastructure Make private vehicles more costly to drive Make private vehicles less attractive to drive A (+) Vehicle taxes (+) Congestion pricing(+) Fuel taxes (+) Parking fees (-) Domestic car industry (-) Income growth (+) Compact land use(+) Car pool lanes (+) Congestion* (+) Difficult drivingconditions *(+) Vehicle theft* (-) Sprawling land use (-) Road construction (-) Car commercials and billboards* Most ‘sustainable transport’ efforts focus on larger scale public transport investments under the “Avoid, Shift, Improve” framework (+) BRT (+) Metro (+) Pedestrian, bicycle, and cycle rickshaw lanes *Unintentional Restrict Car Use

16. Enter the mobile phone, the fastest growing, perhaps most value-adding product in human history Tracks and locates user travel demand in real-time 1 Enables productive use of travel time 3 Provides real-time travel supply information for users 2 Provides information on new destinations 4 Personalization Can become a new vehicle for travel payments 5

17. Mobile phone-driven intelligence infrastructure way ahead of transportation infrastructure in most developing Asian cities Not just mobile devices India boasts not just 860 million phones vs. 13 million cars but also the most competitive mobile phone market in the world. the world’s lowest telephony rates and a new 3G network 3.9x 4.9x 4.7x 35x 66x 201x

18. In developed contexts, an intelligence layer is creating new possibilities that may potentially deter private auto ownership 1 2 3 4 Makes existing shared modes more efficient and on-demand Creates sharing systems for private modes Increases the opportunity cost of driving Makes sharing and shared transport super cool! Intelligence can enlarge the circle of trust by managing user behavior as well as fleet logistics The best thing to happen to public transit is the invention of the smartphone Mobile apps are making transit more convenient, personalized and integrated with the community (In less dense environments) intelligence can more efficiently match real-time para-transit supply and demand Provides economic benefit to drivers Can provide accessibility to more disadvantaged populations (women, poor) Responsive environments like piano-playing staircases and social networking may help to create new, attractive experiences that can only happen in shared space Most Asian cultures based in dense environments already very familiar with sharing Smartphones expect to be pervasive in developing Asia in 3-5 years Productivity-conscious commuter Special occasion commuter Social commuter Time-sensitive commuter

19. Entrepreneurs in developing Asia are beginning to pilot ways to use mobile-driven intelligence to create sustainable profit from these transport efficiency gains Normal motorcycle taxi utilization rate = 30% Go-JEK, on-demand motorcycle taxi and goods delivery service in Jakarta, launched February 2011

21. Improve Auto-Substitutes 2 1 Manage private motorization Improve mobility of the ‘car and 2-wheeler-less’ Invest in new public/shared transport assets & infrastructure Make private vehicles more costly to drive Improve existing transport user experience Make private vehicles less attractive to drive B A (+) Vehicle taxes (+) Congestion pricing(+) Fuel taxes (+) Parking fees (-) Domestic car industry (-) Income growth (+) Compact land use(+) Car pool lanes (+) Congestion* (+) Difficult drivingconditions *(+) Vehicle theft* (-) Sprawling land use (-) Road construction (-) Car commercials and billboards* Most ‘sustainable transport’ efforts focus on larger scale public transport investments under the “Avoid, Shift, Improve” framework (+) BRT (+) Metro (+) Pedestrian, bicycle, and cycle rickshaw lanes “In most developing cities, public/shared transport share is very high – maintaining those market shares is the first priority” - ChhaviDhinga, GTZ Mobile-driven intelligence may help serve the last mile in transport user adoption *Unintentional Restrict Car Use

22. 3 Key Questions To what extent is mobile-driven transport experimentation happening across developing Asia? Are current experiments sustainable and scalable (enough to provide real alternatives to private car use)? Are there impacts of these experiments that go beyond its intended design? 1 2 3

23. 1 To what extent is mobile-driven transport experimentation happening across developing Asia? Fazilka Delhi Dhaka Mumbai Bangkok Bengalaru Kuala Lumpur Singapore Field Visit Jakarta | summer 2011 field research

24. 2 3 C 4 5 1 1 2 Private vehicle-sharing Makes driving a car easier Shared Transport Social Fun Makes existing shared modes more efficient and on-demand Safety / Payments MobileProductivity On-DemandAuto Taxi Navigation Bus Arrival SINGAPORE Car Sharing DID NOT VISIT KUALA LUMPUR Congestion Tracking Fare-Tracking On-DemandMotor-cycle On-DemandAuto Taxi BANGKOK Bus Arrival Car Pooling On-DemandCycle Rickshaw On-DemandAuto Rickshaw JAKARTA Fare-Tracking / Safety Alerts Rail Arrival BicycleSharing DELHI/MUMBAI/BANGALORE/ FAZILKA VehicleSecurity Constellation of Experiments | August 2011 DHAKA

25. Factors that encourage experimentation Significant user transport problem Money | Commercial application Transport partnership SINGAPORE Technical expertise Entrepreneurial activity, low density, government regulations DID NOT VISIT KUALA LUMPUR BANGKOK JAKARTA DELHI/MUMBAI/BANGALORE/ FAZILKA Constellation of Experiments | August 2011 DHAKA

26. 2 Are current experiments sustainable and scalable(enough to provide real alternatives to private car use)? Bengalaru Fazilka Delhi Jakarta Kuala Lumpur Selected Case Studies

27. Entrepreneurs = Low-Cost Leapfrog Strategy 3 Significant impact beyond intended design How scalable are current experiments beyond the intended context? Are there unexpected (and unintended) benefits to the intelligent retrofit? Are these experiments happening in developing Asia? 1 A 2 = Economic and/or social value Local entrepreneurs + Are current experiments sustainable? Poor transport user experience 3 1 4 2 5

28. 2 Case Study 1. Fazilka Eco-Cabs Rickshaw drivers in Fazilka, 2011

29. Case Study 1. Fazilka Eco-Cabs Fazilka – Compact city of 100K in the northwest Indian province of Punjab, 10km from the Pakistan border, “where India begins” 1 km 50-60 rickshaw drivers + 1 chai wallah call center Launched in 2008 by NavdeepAsija, an IIT-Delhi PhD student and traffic safety expert and the Graduate Welfare Association of Fazilka 1 km Problem – Originally inspired as a way for entrepreneur’s mother to access the local market. A majority of younger population moving out of Fazilka towards larger urban hubs like Chandigarh and New Delhi. Solution – World’s first dial-a-rickshaw service. 500 independent cycle rickshaw drivers operating in Fazilka divided into 9 one sq km sectors and slowly incorporated into a more demand-responsive networked fleet. Users dial the local chai wallah in their zone when they require service and the first available rickshaw driver in the queue is dispatched. Waiting times usually under 10 minutes. Figure is illustrative; zone demarcations and call center location may not be exact Overview

33. Investments in new Eco-cabs 10,000 rupees ($250 each)

35. Free health care

36. Tour guide training (in tourist cities like Patiala)

37. Access to credit to purchase new, lesslabor-intensive eco-cab at low rate of interest (4%)

38. Access to add’l revenue from selling water (8 rupees)

41. Local partners in each city to advocate and fund experiments

42. Management of larger fleet including scaling technology to centralised call centers in bigger cities

43. Linguistic and political differences in state of Haryana(10k population) 3 3 1 Patiala (1.9M) 55 eco-cabs launched in 2011 Sangrur (80k) 20 eco-cabs launched India Express, a leading newspaper in Punjab publishes a front-page article on the Fazilka eco-cab experiment Scalability

44. Case Study 1. Fazilka Eco-Cabs Car-free zones 6 On-demand eco-cab Walking Cycling On-demand cycle rickshaw Cycle rickshaw 6 5 1 4 2 3 Leapfrog Impact

45. India is an ancient society. For many years, only few people had knowledge. It was blood by chance. The mobile phone is a godsend . . . [and]information can break the stranglehold of the ovarian lottery sealed in India’s old hierarchies and shackles. - Sachin Pilot, India Minister of Communications and Information Technology

46. Role of Cutting-Edge Technologies Technology has NOT been the panacea to solve user transport problems -- most observed innovation required has been incremental - the localization of existing technologies to a specific context Google CIO Douglas Merrill’s 3 Types of Innovation . . . but incremental innovation can have positive side effects beyond solving a specific user problem and may pave the way for more transformational innovations . . .

47. Next Steps . . . 1 How to and how fast to accelerate experimentation? Where is the next big opportunity to seed an intelligent retrofit of transport? Can this be in part developed externally in Singapore or at MIT? 2

48. Custom, One-Off Tech Development GPS, algorithmic optimization Radio broadcast Territory-based queuing Avg wait time range: 4-30 minutes Wait time range: 5-10 minutes User request geo-coded to a location – algorithm matches the closest, available taxi in the area based on GPS location; Taxi sends SMS or signal to confirm request Ex. Comfort Delgro User request broadcast to entire fleet over radio– first driver to respond takes the request Ex. Taxis in Kuala Lumpur, Bangkok User request called into locally-based chai wallah – first driver in fixed territory based queue takes the request Ex. Fazilka Eco-cabs

49. The Future of Urban Mobility

50. Acknowledgements Sponsor Singapore-MIT Alliance for Future Urban Mobility Principal AdvisorsChris Zegras, MIT Asst. Prof. of Urban Studies and Planning Paul Barter, NUS Asst. Prof. at LKY School of Public Policy Entrepreneurs NavdeepAsija, Fazilka Eco-Cabs RaveeAahluwalia, Patiala Eco-Cabs Sundara Raman, Ideophone Anenth Guru, Ideophone SandeepBhaskar, Ideophone SanjeevGarg, Delhi Cycles Atul Jain, Delhi Cycle HR Murali, Namma Cycle Anthony Tan, My Teksi Hooi Ling Tan, My Teksi NadiemMakarim, GO-Jek Arup Chakti, NITS Leading Thinkers ApiwatRatanwahara, Chulalongkorn University SorawitNarupiti, Chulalongkorn University Zia Wadud, BUET Charisma Chowdhury, BUET Moshahida Sultana, University of Dhaka GeetamTewari, IIT-Delhi AnvitaArora, IIT-Delhi Rajinder Ravi, cycle rickshaw expert Tri Tjahjono, Univesiti Indonesia JamillahMohamad, University of Malaya Advocates Debra Efroymson, Work for a Better Bangladesh MarufRahman, Work for a Better Bangladesh Akshay Mani, EMBARQ MadhavPai, EMBARQ ChhaviDhingra, GTZ-India Eric Zusman, IGES Yoga Adiwinarto, ITDP Indonesia RestitiSekartini, ITDP Indonesia Government AnisurRahman, Dhaka Transport and Coordination Board Rajendar Kumar, Indian Dept of Information Technology Anil Sethi, Mayor of Fazilka ProdyutDutt, ADB India Penny Lukito, BAPPENAS Indonesia FirdausAli, Jakarta Water Provision Industry RD Sharma, HI-BIRD Bicycles Comfort Cab Malaysia PornthipKonghun, Googlers Thailand GautamAnand, Google Singapore Rahul Desai, Google Singapore Evan Sidarto, Google Singapore James McClure, Google Singapore KapilGoswami, Google India

51. For the aspiring Asian, however, compared to a private automobile, the alternatives leave much to be desired Un-Marketed Perception that only poor people cycle in India

52. Overcrowded Dilapidated public / private bus service in Dhaka, 2011

53. Unsafe Questionable taxi drivers in Bangkok esp for women, 2011

54. Unclear Fares Overcharging auto-rickshaw driver in Bangalore, 2011

55. Unclear Routes Inexperienced driver, town to village public transport service in Fazilka, 2011

56. Long Waits 30 min wait for radio taxis in Kolkata, 2011

57. Not-On-Demand Idling cycle rickshaw drivers in Patiala, 2011 30 min wait for radio taxis in Kolkata, 2011