India Equity Analytics Today: Buy Stock of Ingvysya Bank

INDUSIND BANK : "BUY" 26th Mar 2014
We have raised our target price largely due to two factors – (1) margin and return ratio likely to improve from April quarter as per management
and (2) price would settle at 3.2 times of FY14E book due to showing some positive upturn in economy and boost up of market sentiment.
.................................................................... ( Page : 8-10)
"BUY" 25th Mar 2014
Jindal steel & Power : Challenging Fundamentals "NEUTRAL" 24th Mar 2014
Hindalco Industries Ltd:
Sesa Sterlite's 22 days smelting shut will help rival producer Hindalco Industries raise sales.With greater comfort on sustainability and visibility of
ramp up in UAIL operations, we raise our FY15E volume and consolidated EBITDA by ~2%. Currently the stock is trading at 0.7x in 1yr Forward
P/B and we believe with the changing political climate and improving auto mobile demand the stock will accumulate to 0.8x P/B. Hence at CMP
Rs.121.5 we are bullish on the stock to a medium term target price of Rs.140 which is a 15% upside addition.
................................................................ ( Page : 11-13)
We cover Persistent System as one of the few companies in the tier-II with potential to grow revenue at a range of 18-20%, specially focused on
emerging business and relationship building with marquee clients. Despite better predictability of growth and attractive visibility of its expansion
in new emerging verticals, we advice to book profit on the stock because of its premium valuation. ...............................................................
(Page : 20-21)
"BOOK PROFIT"
The Company has embarked on expansion projects of US$9bn in steel and power, backed by resource availability and steady cash flows.
Improving free-cash-flows and volumes would be visible from end-FY15. Profitability is geared to iron ore and coal, which, against the present
backdrop of improving iron-ore prices and higher coal consumption, would drive a re-rating. The stock quotes at 1.1x FY14e P/B. We initiate our
coverage on this stock with a target of Rs.285/share on the basis of improving steel business, and Recommend Neutral.
.................................................................. ( Page : 14-16)
Persistent System : "Persistently innovating.." 21th Mar 2014
PNB : "BUY" 24th Mar 2014
We upgrade PNB from neutral to add rating on account of external factors like better than expected GDP growth and CAD numbers which
showing some improvement along with softening inflation numbers. Recently market sentiments are also booted on account of opinion poll
result which revealed that BJP led NDA would close to formation of Government in coming general election. We raised our price target to
Rs.700 from Rs.600 earlier. ............................................................. ( Page : 17- 19)
Coal India LTD : "BUY" 27th Mar 2014
Company has decided not to increase the prices until the elections are over in May, after which company may hike the price by at least a 10per
cent . The board took up the agenda of a 10-15per cent hike on some categories of coal. Growth in Railway Rake loading from Coal India was
11% in FY13 and about 6-7% in FY14 and the growth is expected to remain in the 9-10% range for FY15.We see Coal India at a attractive
valuation to go long from the current dips. So we stick to our previous estimates with revised price premium and recommend Maintain Buy CIL
at price dips with a revised target price of Rs.318/- . ........................................ ( Page : 5-7)
IEA-Equity
Strategy
28th Mar, 2014
Edition : 234
INGVYSYA BANK : "BUY" 28th Mar 2014
INGVYSYA Bank has not participated in recent market rally despite of strong liability base franchise and stable asset quality. This has been due to
political uncertainty regarding Telangana issue. Over the last few months, bank witnessed sluggish growth in loan and SA. Now things are started
normalize and bank is still available at lucrative valuation. We retained our BUY rating with price target of Rs.680 per share.
..................................................................... ( Page : 2-4)
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
India Equity Analytics
Daily Fundamental Report on Indian Equities

615
680
680
11
0.0
1M 1yr YTD
Absolute 12.8 14.4 14.4
Rel.to Nifty 7.0 -3.1 -3.1
Current 4QFY13 3QFY1
3Promoters 43.2 43.4 43.6
FII 28.8 28.9 28.6
DII 14.4 13.6 14.8
Others 13.6 14.1 13.1
Financials Rs, Cr
2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E
NII 1007 1208 1539 1696 2058
Total Income 1661 1878 2266 2555 2916
PPP 635 768 993 1167 1283
Net Profit 319 456 613 701 739
EPS 26.3 30.4 39.6 37.1 39.2
2
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
(Source: Company/Eastwind)
Stock Performance
52wk Range H/L
0.85 lakhs
Nifty 6642
Mkt Capital (Rs Cr)
NSE Symbol INGVYSYABK
Change from Previous
INGVYSYA Bank Vs Nifty
Share Holding Pattern-%
Target Price
Previous Target Price
Presently strong presence in AP but forerunner to make outside presence
INGVYSYA bank has strong presence in Andhra Pradesh. Bank’s 170 branches are
in the state which accounts for 15% of total branch and 15% deposits come from AP
also. Bank is the largest bank in the state in term of SME lending (15% SME lending
in AP out of total SME book). Bank’s loan book grew more than 20%+ till 3QFY13
but loan grew by less than 10% in last two quarters basically due to political turmoil.
But now things are getting change and we believe bank would resume its business in
both region. Further bank has taken large steps to make it presence outside the
state as we get evidence from bank’s exposure to agriculture loan in AP is less than
national average. During the last several years, bank has not increased its
agriculture loan within state.
Market Data
Upside
667/405
BSE Code 531807
INGVYSYA BANK
In our banking coverage universe INGVYSYA Bank has not participated in
recent banking rally despite of better asset quality and strong liability
franchise among peers. We value bank at Rs.680/share which implies 1.8
times of FY14E book value. In last one month, bank reported lower return in
comparison to peers largely due to some political uncertainty in Andhra
Pradesh as bank has strong presence in state. But now things are getting
settled as both the regions (Telangana and Seemandhra) are witnessing
improving economic activities as per management. Our target price range are
1.5 to 1.8 times of book which means bank would trade in the range of Rs.570
to Rs.680 per share depending upon fundamental and economic in general
and political uncertainty in the state in particular.
Lower return on account of political uncertainty and business slowdown in
Andhra Pradesh
In last one month INGVYSYA bank has given the return of 12.8% versus Bank Nifty
17% basically due to some uncertainty regarding the Telagana issue. We believe
this would be short term and but we not saying that bank was not getting hurt in the
past. During the turmoil, bank had lost around 20 working in FY14 and from last two
quarters SA growth was muted. But now things are getting change as both the
divided state Telangana and Seemandhra are witnessing improving economic
activities in last six month as per management. Andhra Pradesh region is traditionally
know for its large entrepreneur community, should now grow strongly as this region is
well establish business centre and Government have given 5 years tax free status.
Average Daily Volume
11514
Company update BUY
CMP
"BUY"
28th March2014

3
INGVYSYA BANK
View & Valuation
In our earlier note dated 10th Feb2014 result update, we had given price target of Rs.682
per share. Since then stock has appreciated about 13.6% lower than its peers largely due
to some issue regarding the division of Andhra Pradesh. In last six months bank
witnessed sluggish growth in term of saving accounts deposits growth and loan growth.
But after settled the issue, business activities start improving. Bank has strong liability
franchise and asset quality and still available at lucrative valuation.We have BUY rating
on the stock with price target of Rs.680.
Valuation Range
Valuation Band

4
INGVYSYA BANK
Financial & Assuption
Source : Eastwind/ Company
P/L 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E
Interest/discount on advances / bills 2033 2868 3550 3824 4501
Income on investments 646 982 1307 1476 1616
Interest on balances with Reserve Bank of India 2 1 2 1 1
Others 13 7 3 13 13
Total Interest Income 2694 3857 4862 5314 6132
Others Income 655 670 727 858 858
Total Income 3349 4527 5588 6172 6990
Interest on deposits 1357 2153 2579 2619 3038
Interest on RBI/Inter bank borrowings 48 247 393 923 1033
Others 283 249 351 0 0
Interest Expended 1688 2648 3323 3618 4074
NII 1007 1208 1539 1696 2058
NII Growth(%) 21.3 20.1 27.3 10.3 21.3
Other Income 655 670 727 858 858
Total Income 1661 1878 2266 2555 2916
Employee 606 651 751 819 964
Other Expenses 420 459 522 569 670
Operating Expenses 1026 1110 1273 1388 1633
PPP( Rs Cr) 635 768 993 1167 1283
Provisions 317 312 380 127 181
Net Profit 319 456 613 701 739
31.6 43.2 34.3 14.4 5.4
Key Balance sheet data
Deposits 30194 35195 41334 45467 50923
Deposits Growth(%) 16.7 16.6 17.4 10.0 12.0
Borrowings 4147 5696 6511 8024 8986
Borrowings Growth(%) 13.0 37.4 14.3 23.2 12.0
Loan 23602 28721 31772 34949 40192
Loan Growth(%) 27.5 21.7 10.6 10.0 15.0
Investments 11021 12715 18278 20327 22766
Investments Growth(%) 5.2 15.4 43.7 11.2 12.0
Eastwind Calculation
Yield on Advances 8.6 10.0 11.2 10.9 11.2
Yield on Investments 5.9 7.7 7.1 7.3 7.1
Yield on Funds 7.3 8.8 9.3 9.6 9.7
Cost of deposits 4.5 6.1 6.2 5.8 6.0
Cost of Borrowings 8.0 8.7 11.4 11.4 11.5
Cost of fund 4.9 6.5 6.9 6.8 6.8
Valuation
Book Value 217 265 299 379 418
P/BV 1.5 1.3 1.9 1.4 1.3
P/E 12.2 11.7 14.1 14.5 13.7

Coal India LTD.
Management Guidiance
280
318
307
13%
4%
Issue with NTPC to sort out by end of FY14
533278
176226
17622 E-auction Volume Growth
6601
1M 1yr YTD
Absolute -1.3 -21.2 -21.4
Rel. to Nifty 2.8 8.8 8.6
Expenditure Font
3QFY14 2QFY14 1QFY14
Promoters 90.0 90.0 90.0
FII 5.5 5.5 5.4
DII 2.4 2.3 2.3
Others 2.1 2.2 2.4 Rescheduling Date of hearing stands a key concern
Realization gain on Revised Coal Price
Financials : Q3FY14 Y-o-Y % Q-o-Q % Q3FY13 Q2FY14
Net Revenue 16928 -2.3 9.8 17325 15411
EBITDA 4104 -4.3 46.9 4288 2794
Depriciation 442 5.2 -10.7 420 495
Interest Cost 10 0.0 25.6 10 8
Tax 1930 4.9 36.6 1839 1412
PAT 3894 -11.4 27.6 4395 3052
(In Crs)
5
Upside
Result Update
CMP
Target Price
Stock Performance-%
1 yr Forward P/B
Source - Comapany/EastWind Research
Competition Appellate Tribunal stays Rs 1,773 Crore fine on CIL, and will decide on the
matter on next hearing 16th April 2014 (Rescheduled from 11th Feb 2014).
Meanwhile, Coal India Ltd is likely to get additional revenue of Rs 2,119 Crore in this fiscal
on account of revision in dry fuel prices.Though the incremental revenue is a positive sign
but it fails to change our previous valuation.
Number from the sampling exercise taken by a third-party check for the full year (FY14)
may come by Mar 2014. Also results for quarter ended Mar 2014 may see some
provisioning for such low grade quality coal.
On the expenditure side contractual expenses increased ~20% to Rs.154/ton from
Rs.128/ton in Q2FY14.Powerfuel cost and other expenses per ton remained flat, while
cost of project per ton decreased to Rs149/ton from Rs.206/ton in the previous quarter.
Realization of Coal India showed little uptick like 2% to Rs.1445/ton.
Management is fairly confident to achieve 25-30 MT (Million Tonnes) of growth in
production for FY15. Of the production growth, 12-15 MT to come from Mahanadi Coal
fields, 12 MT to come from South Eastern Coal fields and the balance from rest of the
subsidiaries primarily Western Coal Fields.FY15 Coal offtake target to be 507 MT.
NTPC has been regular in clearing payments so far, except for some payments held up
due to Grade quality issues. Receivables from NTPC were at Rs 3295 crore as of end of
Dec 2013. By end of FY14 management hopes to sort out the NTPC payment issue.Total
receivables as of end of Dec 2013 stand at Rs.10457 crores; out of which Rs.8476 crore is
undisputed and balance is disputed.
E-auction volumes during the quarter ended Dec 2013 went up to 15.14 MT from 10.48
MT during the corresponding previous quarter. For the nine-month period ended Dec
2013, E-auction volumes went up to 41.26 MT from 35.61 MT compared to the
corresponding previous period.Wherever transport and loading facility issues due to low
railway rake availability are being faced by subsidiaries then those subsidiaries are
advised by the management to go for e-auctions.
Market Data
BSE Code
COALINDIA
Average Daily Volume (Nos.)
NSE Symbol
52wk Range H/L
Mkt Capital (Rs Crores)
372/238
Nifty
"Buy"
27th Mar 14

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E
50234 62415 68303 69960
7573 5123 6556 8372
1755 2013 2333 2591
4580 4901 5802 6049
20481 26705 27943 28943
40390 40857 50219 53705
9843 21558 18084 16255
1673 1969 1813 1860
79 54 45 34
5595 6484 7623 7310
10868 20588 17356 17921
33 51 36 40
6
Earlier we suggested, if earnings falls, then price might go beyond 256, but p/b level
may be maintained , else we assume that since the company is a good dividend paying
company with Roe above 30% we assume p/b should remain above 3.
Curently the stock is trading at 3.4x at one year forward price to book but looking at the
earnings and dividend yield we believe the stock will trade at most common 3.8x level.
View & Outlook
Growth in Railway Rake loading from Coal India was 11% in FY13 and about 6-7% in
FY14 and the growth is expected to remain in the 9-10% range for FY15
Coal India LTD.
Rs. 600-700 crore benefit/savings to be seen on a full year basis for FY14 and beyond
due to rationalization of loading and crushing charges.Currently 46-47 MT of ground
stock available; 10 MT liquidation of ground stock possible by end of FY14.
Net Revenue from Operation
Cost Of Projects & Contractual
Interest Cost
P/L PERFORMANCE
Power and fuel
PAT
ROE %
We see Coal India at a attractive valuation to go long from the current dips. So we stick
to our previous estimates with revised price premium and recommend Maintain Buy CIL
at price dips with a revised target price of Rs.318/- .Which is ~13% upside from the
current level.
Company has decided not to increase the prices until the elections are over in May,
after which company may hike the price by at least a 10per cent . The board took up the
agenda of a 10-15per cent hike on some categories of coal.
Coal India has decided to add 25,000 workmen over the next five years while three
times as many workmen employed by the state run miner are scheduled to retire during
this period, a move that is expected to double its productivity per employee and reduce
cost of production by about 10 per cent.
contractual expenses
Employee benefit Expence
Expenditure
EBITDA
Depriciation
Tax

FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13
6316 6316 6316 6316
20956 26998 34137 42156
27273 33314 40453 48472
343 1334 1305 1078
1620 33 0 0
2545 22461 28271 31144
772 645 829 837
1404 12387 15595 20447
5443 8490 9785 12385
0 779 759 712
12035 12065 12681 12754
2211 2057 1848 3496
610 845 1017 1181
4402 5586 6071 5618
2169 3419 5663 10480
39078 45806 58203 62236
8066 11180 13478 16189
17921 21646 24688 25479
FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13
10727 12819 16323 15948
-131 -3822 3565 -6839
10596 8997 19888 9109
950 697 -10410 -1833
2163 2911 -7382 -7852
13708 12606 2095 -575
FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13
0.0 5.7 5.5 4.0
0.0 17.3 32.6 27.5
4.9 22.8 29.2 52.7
1.7 4.3 4.3 4.2
1.0 3.7 3.1 2.8
7
Coal India LTD.
Trade payables
Short-term provisions
Total liabilities
Intangibles
B/S PERFORMANCE
Share capital
Reserve & Surplus
Total equity
Long-term borrowings
Short-term borrowings
Long-term provisions
Cash and bank balances
Tangible assets
Capital work-in-progress
Long-term loans and advances
Inventories
Trade receivables
Inventories to Turnover%
CASH FLOWS
Cash from Operation
Short-term loans and advances
Total Assets
RATIOS
P/B
Creditors to Turnover%
Trading At :
Changes In Working Capital
Net Cash From Operation
Cash From Investment
Cash from Finance
Net Cash Flow during year
EPS
Debtor to Turnover%

INDUSIND BANK
486
540
428
11
26
1M 1yr YTD
Absolute 22.7 20.5 20.5
Rel.to Nifty 17.1 4.8 4.8
Current 24QFY1
4
3QFY1
3Promoters 15.2 15.2 15.3
FII 41.1 39.9 42.3
DII 7.2 7.4 7.0
Others 36.4 37.5 35.4
Financials Rs, Cr
2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E
NII 1376 1704 2233 2787 4053
Total Income 2090 2716 3596 4562 5827
PPP 1082 1373 1839 2452 2972
Net Profit 577 803 1061 1320 1633
EPS 12.4 17.2 20.3 25.3 31.1
8
Result update BUY
Upside
Market Data
Change from Previous( Rs)
INDUSIND Bank Vs Nifty
1.26 lakhs
Nifty 6589
Indusind bank has outperformed Nifty by 16% in last one month and Bank
Nifty by 6%. We believe this has been on the back of possible margin
expansion as per management and market sentiments. Margin could be
expanded on the back of lower cost of fund led by wholesale deposits, FCRN
deposits fund, CASA accretion and shift loan book in fovour of corporate book
due to slowdown in commercial segment in retail portfolio. Further we
observe that there is about 80% correlation between price of HDFC bank and
Indusind bank and their current price ratio (HDFC Bank to Indusind Bank)
moved in range of 1.7 to 1.4 in five year time frame (Presently at 1.52). HDFC
bank is close to 4 times of book but Indusind bank still has potential to move
up (presently trading at 2.8 times of book versus 3.2 times in historical band).
Our target price ratio would be 1.4 which implies expected HDFC price target
of Rs.760 (4 times of book) and Indusind bank price target of Rs.540 (3.2 times
of FY14E book).
Stock Performance
52wk Range H/L
CMP
Margin expansion on the lower cost of fund and change in portfolio
composition
Margin expansion would be come from whole sale deposits and CASA front as per
management. Indusind bank funding profile constitute about 35% of wholesale fund
which is lower is cost and bank had raised $300 bn in form of foreign currency
deposits which has cost around 3.5% while regular deposits cost fall around 6.5 to
7%. Further bank advance composition has switched in favour of corporate book in
the wake of possible slowdown in commercial vehicle segment in retail book. Bank’s
CASA improved from 31.8% in 2QFY14 to 32.2% in 3QFY14 led by SA growth of
50% YoY and 8% QoQ. Bank opened 13 branches in December quarter and another
40 branches are under process of various stages which are to be opened by March
2014. Aggressive branch expansion would be CASA accretion and deposits cost
would be soften. Management expects NIM to remain steady with upward basis.
Mkt Capital (Rs Cr)
Target Price
531/318
BSE Code 532187
NSE Symbol INDUSINDBK
25535
We have raised our target price largely due to two factors – (1) margin and
return ratio likely to improve from April quarter as per management and (2)
price would settle at 3.2 times of FY14E book due to showing some positive
upturn in economy and boost up of market sentiment.
"BUY"
26th March 2014

9
INDUSIND BANK
Trading significantly discount than HDFC Bank despite of almost lending profit
Historically it has been observed that Indusind Bank one year forward price to book move
in the range of 2.5 to 3.2 times. Recently bank’s price has appreciated but still below of 3
times of book. Further we also observe that price ratio of HDFC Bank and Indusind bank
move in the range of 1.7 to 1.4 and their correlation in one year price is about 78%.
HDFC Bank is now very close to 4 times of book (one year forward P/BV justifies as it
has been historically observed) but Indusind bank is still to reach at 3.2 times of book.
Therefore chances of price appreciation in Indusind bank are higher than HDFC Bank
and said price ratio of both banks would be justified. We compare this bank with HDFC
Bank is due to both banks have about almost same percentage in retail lending profile.
Historical Price Band
HDFC Bank and Indusind Bank Price Ratio

10
INDUSIND BANK
Financials & Assuptions
Source: Eastwind/Company
Income Statement 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015
Interest Income 3589 5359 6983 8308 10419
Interest Expense 2213 3655 4750 5521 6367
NII 1376 1704 2233 2787 4053
Change (%)
Non Interest Income 714 1012 1363 1775 1775
Total Income 2090 2716 3596 4562 5827
Change (%)
Pre Provision Profits 1082 1373 1839 2452 2972
Change (%)
Provisions 504 180 263 455 535
PBT 577 1193 1576 1997 2437
PAT 577 803 1061 1320 1633
Change (%)
Balance Sheet 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E
Deposits( Rs Cr) 34365 42362 54117 62234 74681
Change (%) 23 28 15 20
of which CASA Dep 9331 11563 15867 20537 22404
Change (%) 24 37 29 9
Borrowings( Rs Cr) 5525 8682 9460 15559 18670
Investments( Rs Cr) 13551 14572 19654 23338 28005
Loans( Rs Cr) 26166 35064 44321 54071 67589
Change (%) 34 26 22 25
Ratio 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E
Avg. Yield on loans 10.8 12.0 12.7 0.0 12.5
Avg. Yield on Investments 5.4 7.4 6.5 6.6 6.5
Avg. Cost of Deposit 5.3 7.3 8.8 8.9 8.5
Avg. Cost of Borrowimgs 7.0 6.7 7.6 7.5 7.5
Valuation 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E
Book Value 87 101 146 171 195
CMP 264 321 405 405 405
P/BV 3.0 3.2 2.8 2.4 2.1

Hindalco Industries Ltd.
122 1-
140
132
15%
NA
2-
500440
25497
17848
6284
1M 1yr YTD A. Captive bauxite is only 21km away from the refinery
Absolute 24.7 38.1 30.6 B. Low reactive silica content which reduces caustic soda consumption
Rel. to Nifty 18.3 21.2 16.1 C.
D.
Promoters 37.0 37.0 37.0
FII 26.9 24.9 24.8
DII 13.3 14.4 14.3
Others 22.9 23.7 23.9
Net Revenue 7273 5.8 15.4 6872 6305
EBITDA 629 8.1 16.5 582 540
PAT 344 -20.6 -3.7 434 357
EBIDTA % 9% 2.1 1.0 8% 9%
NPM % 5% -25.0 -16.5 6% 6%
. (In Crs)
11
Nifty
Upside
Market Data
BSE Code
HINDALCONSE Symbol
52wk Range H/L
137/83
Stock Performance-%
1 yr Forward P/B
Political sentiment:
High trihydrate alumina content (40%) i.e., it is gibbsite form of bauxite with only 2%
bohemite (low quality bauxite)
Bauxite properties are such that process is carried out at relatively low temperature and
pressure leading to savings in energy cost.
Novelis’ business has started to improve with the benefit and strong demand from
automobiles. However, the pricing pressure is impacting margin. Novelis is one of the
world’s leading aluminium rolling and recycling companies supplying premium products
in the markets of North America, Europe, Asia and South America. The company is the
largest single producer of aluminium rolled products with an estimated share of 14% of
the world’s supply. Novelis’ sales volumes are expected to grow at a CAGR of 5.7% in
FY13-16E. On the back of increasing share of the automobile segment in the overall sales
mix, we expect the EBITDA/ton to improve.
Company Update
CMP
Target Price
Expansions ready to deliver…
With the change in political climate, we believe there will be demand from domestic
aluminium and copper consumer. Currently copper is going through a three month
low,we expect it to be better after election.
Key reasons for this low cost UAIL plant include:
Novelis Business:
Copper producer Sesa Sterlite Ltd will shut its smelter for 22 days starting April 26, for
maintenance purpose. It produces 30,000 tons of refined copper per month and exports
half of that to China. It will help rival producer Hindalco Industries raise sales. And also
for Hindalco the copper realization is stable with the previous quarter, so it will be
additional sales if orders executes.
Ongoing Positive thrusts:
The Q3FY14 financial results still do not include Mahan, Utkal and Aditya projects. All
three projects have started production under trial run. UAIL’s commercial production
started in December 2013. Management guided for FY15E and FY16E volumes of over
1mt and 1.5mt (full capacity), respectively. Integration of Aluminium smelters (a) Newly
commissioned aluminium smelters (UP and Odisha) to ramp up volumes going forward
and (b) Cost benefit of cheap alumina for its existing smelters with high quality,
proximate and captive bauxite mine, whose production is currently running at ~4mtpa
run-rate. We are expecting a good amount profit addition from these plants in H1FY15.
"Buy"
25th March' 14

12
With greater comfort on sustainability and visibility of ramp up in UAIL operations, we
raise our FY16E volume and consolidated EBITDA by ~2%. We continue to see Hindalco
benefiting over next three years from volume growth in Novelis and Indian operations.
Although Hindalco has expanded its aluminium capacity recently, low aluminium prices,
sticky costs and delay in commencement of mining from captive blocks have resulted in
decline in profitability over the past few quarters. In the near-term, its profitability is
likely to be muted due to higher costs at Mahan smelter and low aluminium prices.
Currently the stock is trading at 0.7x in 1yr Forward P/B and we believe with the
changing political climate and improving aluminium demand the stock will accumulate
to 0.8x P/B. Hence at CMP Rs.121.5 we are bullish on the stock to a medium term target
price of Rs.140 which is a 15% upside addition.
The company has received stage-2 forest clearance for its Mahan coal block subject to
certain conditions. The next important step would be signing of liming lease with the
state government and subsequent mine development, which is likely to take ~18-24
months. High debt on the books continues to weigh on valuations.
Concerns:
View & Valuations:
Hindalco is a metal major with business interests in copper smelting & aluminium
manufacturing domestically. It is also a leading aluminum converter globally through
subsidiary Novelis. On the domestic aluminium business front, the company is
undergoing an ambitious capacity expansion wherein its aluminium (primary metal)
production capacity will increase from 560 KT currently to 1278 KT by FY15E. The
planned capacity expansion is backed by corresponding alumina refinery with captive
bauxite linkage. Bauxite conveyor expected to start in December 2014.
Trading At :
About The Company:

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E
72078 80821 80193 81139
431 783 1012 1360
72509 81604 81205 82499
64102 72856 72395 72681
7976 7965 7798 8457
2725 2645 2822 3076
1839 1758 2079 2600
964 786 886 1201
366 211 -20 -
57 -50 16 -
2456 3397 3027 2940
8.5 10.6 8.4 7.8
FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13
191 191 191 191
21346 28824 31179 34597
21545 29023 31911 35330
10763 13736 37127 49857
13236 13956 3731 6442
3901 4138 5289 5691
9742 12980 11052 9613
1016 1077 1377 1610
69235 84376 101402 120590
7876 12272 15429 16435
21124 20133 19871 21490
5801 13131 22798 33831
1983 2035 3774 3170
11275 14096 13246 14332
6544 8000 8017 8952
2195 2556 3296 3770
1134 1164 2159 3257
69235 84376 101402 120590
FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13
1.6 1.4 0.8 0.5
20.5 12.8 17.7 15.8
10.8 11.1 9.9 11.2
16.0 18.0 13.7 12.0
FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13
5542 6929 8534 6852
4944 6226 7602 2978
-5448 -6710 -13220 -13765
428 825 6237 10278
-76 341 619 -510
13
B/S PERFORMANCE
Share capital
Reserve & Surplus
Total equity
Other Income
Total Income
P/L PERFORMANCE
Expenditure
EBITDA
Tangible assets
Trade payables
Total liabilities
Intangibles
Cash from Finance
Net Cash Flow during year
ROE%
Inventories
Trade receivables
Share in Profit/(Loss) of Associates
PAT
Net Cash From Operation
Depriciation
Interest Cost
Tax
Minority Interest
Cash From Investment
Cash from Operation
Total Assets
RATIOS
P/B
EPS
Debtor to Turnover%
Creditors to Turnover%
CASH FLOWS

Jindal steel & Power
265
285
NA
8%
NA
532286
24796
11158
6495
1M 1yr YTD
Absolute 6.9 -21.7 -27.9
Rel. to Nifty 0.5 -36.3 -37.6
Promoters 59.7 59.1 59.1
FII 21.9 21.3 20.8
DII 4.7 6.2 6.7
Others 13.7 13.3 13.4
Revenue 5377 12.0 7.9 4802 4984
EBIDTA 1701 -5.0 16.7 1790 1457
Net Profit 562 -35.2 24.3 867 452
EBIDTA% 32 -15.1 8.2 37 29
NPM% 10 -42.1 15.2 18 9
(In Crs)
14
CMP
Target Price
Nifty
Balance sheet at inflection point: In the past three years, 3bn dollar has been spent on
expansion, and a further 6bn will be expended in the next three years. The expansion has
been supported by the strong business cash flows. However, the net-debt-to-EBITDA
level has hit 3.7x due to delayed cash flows, though the leverage ratio is likely to have
peaked.
Steel segment improving : Steel sales volumes of Jindal Steel and Power are likely to
have improved in 3QFY14, to 0.75m tons. On the changing business and client mix, prices
are likely to have been better. Export opportunities in the quarter due to favorable
currency could have offset the impact of iron ore realizations and would have improved
EBITDA, aided by stable costs. The Shadeed Oman HBI business, iron ore and coking coal
mine are likely to have been stable.Management expects the company’s total steel
capacity, both in India and overseas, to increase around 8 million ton as compared to
current 3 million ton by the end of the fiscal.
JSPL achieved a spectacular growth in its export volumes which in volume and value
terms grew by 32% and 104% for the same period last year. The Company has received
Rail order from DFCC for the prestigious Delhi – Kolkata corridor and export order from
Ferrotech Alloys, UK.
JSPL’s retail segment has been very successful and the sale during Q3 FY14. Jindal Power
Ltd., a subsidiary of JSPL sales grew by 17.7% while PBT and PAT increased by 16.9% and
15.7% respectively in Q3 this year compared to Q3FY13.Net Sales of the company is
expected to grow at a CAGR of 6% over 2012 to 2015E respectively.
Stock Performance-%
1 yr Forward P/B
Market Data
Challenging Fundamentals
NSE Symbol
52wk Range H/L
362/181
The Company has embarked on expansion projects of US$9bn in steel and power,
backed by resource availability and steady cash flows. Improving free-cash-flows and
volumes would be visible from end-FY15. Profitability is geared to iron ore and coal,
which, against the present backdrop of improving iron-ore prices and higher coal
consumption, would drive a re-rating. The stock quotes at 1.1x FY14e P/B. We initiate
our coverage on this stock with a target of Rs.285/share on the basis of improving steel
business, and Recommend Neutral.
The consolidated turnover was up by 12% to Rs.5377 Cr against Rs. 4683 Cr in previous
year period. Net Profit is after tax for the quarter is Rs. 562Cr (Rs. 867 Cr in Q3FY13). The
steel business in volume and value terms grew by 11% and 7% respectively compared to
the previous quarter.
BSE Code
JINDALSTEL
Initial Coverage Neutral
Upside
"Neutral"
24th March' 14

Coverage :
Products
• Mining
Plants Locations
• Jindal Industrial Park (Chhattisgarh)
• Raipur Division (Chhattisgarh)
• Tamnar (Odisha)
• Angul (Odisha) • Zambia
• Barbil (Odisha) • Tanzania
• Tensa - (Jharkhand)
• Patratu (Jharkhand) • Australia
15
Earning Ratios
Business Areas
• Semi-Finished Products
• Power
• Ferro Chrome
• Silico Manganese
• Sponge Iron
• Parallel Flange Beams
• Plates & Coils
Jindal Steel and Power Limited started as a steel manufacturing company, enhanced the
company position as a major steel producer and diversified into various other sectors
such as:
• Petroleum
• Cement and Infrastructure.• Power Generation & Trading
Global Presence
• South America
• Madagascar
Earning Ratios
• Angels & Channels
• TMT Re-bars
• Wire Rods
• Oman (Middle East)
EBIDTA & Margin
Debt Structure
EBIDTA & Margin
• Mozambique
• Fabricated Sections
Stabilizing Power segment: With a steady performance and power sales to Rs.1130 Cr
in 3QFY14 (Rs.1068Cr in 3QFY13), the PLF in 3QFY14 would have held at ~100%, helping
maintain realizations. Capped realizations and the power-surplus situation would have
posed downside risks to earnings.
Jindal Steel and Power Limited (JSPL) is one of India’s major steel producers with a
significant presence in sectors like Steel, Mining, Power Generation and Infrastructure.
With an annual turnover of over US$ 3.6 billion, JSPL is a part of the over US$ 18 billion
diversified O. P. Jindal Group. In the recent past, JSPL has expanded its steel, power and
mining businesses to various parts of the world particularly in Asia, Africa and Australia.
The company has committed investments exceeding US$ 30 billion in the future and has
several business initiatives running simultaneously across continents. The company
produces economical and efficient steel and power through backward and forward
integration.
• Rails
Revenue & Growth

FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13
11092 13112 18209 19807
60 82 142 136
11152 13194 18351 19943
4197 5078 5311 6151
273 415 591 641
774 1303 5513 7020
5244 6795 11415 13812
5848 6317 6793 5994
997 1151 1386 1539
358 260 360 758
4553 4988 5189 3833
919 1184 1186 922
3573 3754 3965 2910
34 27 22 14
6.3 4.6 2.8 1.5
FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13
93 93 93 93
10324 14017 18018 21159
10417 14110 18111 21252
5330 5549 11180 15402
3274 8428 4569 8247
17 25 34 33
2266 2573 1251 1398
2036 3081 4111 4884
25122 36091 45008 57073
14 20 31 20
9883 14824 16463 19255
7947 10041 92 19230
1090 1527 2181 2421
1431 2773 3580 4524
753 1154 1307 1954
113 480 149 200
3464 4852 6927 8079
25122 36091 45008 57073
FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13
6.3 4.6 2.8 1.5
32.0 28.5 21.6 14.6
52.4 47.9 37.0 30.1
17.8 12.8 11.2 6.1
4.2 1.9 2.3 3.2
#N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A
16
Other Expenses
Expenditure
EBITDA
Depriciation
P/L PERFORMANCE
Cost Of Projects & Contractual
Employee benefit Expence
Other Income
Total Income
PBT
Net tax expense / (benefit)
PAT
Weighted Average Cost of Debt %
Debt/Equity (debt/debt+networth or
EBITDA %
ROCE%
RATIOS
NPM %
Inventories
Trade receivables
Total Assets
P/B
Total liabilities
Intangibles
Tangible assets
Interest Cost
ROE%
P/B
Trade payables
B/S PERFORMANCE
Share capital
Reserve & Surplus
Total equity

641
700
600
9
17
1M 1yr YTD
Absolute 18.9 -19.7 -19.7
Rel.to Nifty 14.0 -30.2 -30.2
3Promoters 58.9 57.9 57.9
FII 17.5 17.9 18.0
DII 18.5 18.4 19.1
Others 5.1 5.9 5.1
Financials Rs, Cr
2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E
NII 11807 13414 14857 16536 17691
Total Income 15420 17617 19072 20775 21930
PPP 9056 10614 10907 11155 12500
Net Profit 4433 4884 4748 3408 5209
EPS 140.6 144.0 134.3 94.1 143.9
17
PNB Vs Nifty
7.4 cr
Nifty 6495
Stock Performance
52wk Range H/L
During the last quarter PNB experienced improvement of asset quality especially in
fresh slippage front. Fresh addition in GNPA was declined by 52% sequential to Rs.
1142 cr as against average run rate in last ten quarter was Rs.2124cr. In percentage
to gross advances, slippage ratio came down to 1.4% versus 3% in 2Q and 4.7% in
1Q. Cash recoveries were better which drag net NPA to 2.8% from 3.1% in previous
quarter. Further bank restructure Rs. 2115 cr in 3QFY14 mainly come from power
sector which was offset by similar amount of bond received from SEBs. Bank
management has not indicated restructure pipeline in near term which means stable
to improving asset quality trend could be seen.
Margin expansion on the back of shifting concentration of portfolio mix and
CASA growth
In the subsequent section we will discuss two positive fronts that bank has
witnessed in last quarter result (a) asset quality improvement especially in
fresh slippage side, (b) margin expansion. We will discuss the possibility
valuation contraction from current level.
Creation of fresh slippage lower, impaired asset high but showing
improvement
During the last quarter bank’s margin expanded by 10 bps QoQ despite of moderate
loan growth. Bank witnessed 9.7% YoY loan growth led by SME growth of 21.6%
and retail segment growth of 17.5%. Retail and SME segment are high yield in
nature. Further bank’s low cost deposits CASA increased by 13% in absolute term in
which saving account supported with 14% growth current account 7% YoY. But
overall deposits declined by 20% led by 33% declined of term deposits which inflated
CASA ratio to 38.3% from 27%. Sequentially cost of fund declined by 25 bps while
yield on loan declined by 11 bps on account of creation of low deposits franchise and
shifting of portfolio.
Target Price
19646Mkt Capital (Rs Cr)
PNB
Market Data
Upside
890/400
BSE Code 532461
NSE Symbol PNB
Company update ADD Over the last one month, PNB has outperform Nifty by 14% and Bank Nifty by
5.7% largely on account of external factor like economy and fiscal deficit
showing some positive trend, softening of inflation from its peak level. Market
sentiment are also boosted by recent opinion poll result which revealed BJP
led NDA would come to power and economy would revived. Although we like
Bank of Baroda over PNB but former is trading close to our target price. We
value PNB at Rs.600 to Rs.775 per share implying 0.6 to 0.75 times of one year
forward book depending upon current economy scenario and banks own
fundamental. Looking at current fundamental and market sentiments we
believe bank would trade in the range of Rs.600 to Rs.700.
CMP
"ADD"
24th March2014

18
PNB
Management guided stable NIM, more focus on liability rather than asset yield
According to bank management, PNB is focusing more on liability side rather than yield.
Bank has reduced high cost bulk deposits from Rs.880 bn in Sept.2012 to Rs.220 bn in
Dec.2013 and certificate of deposits came down to Rs.110 bn from Rs.240 bn in
3QFY13. Share of low cost deposits improved to 40% which would help bank to maintain
NIM at 3.5% according to management.
Valuation & View
We upgrade PNB from neutral to add rating on account of improving sign of economy led
by CAD number and softening of inflation. Recently market sentiments are also boosted
up due to exit poll result which revealed that BJP led NDA government would be close to
government formation in coming general election. In our valuation matrix, we value in the
range of 0.6 times to 0.75 times of F14E book depending upon bank’s fundamental and
market sentiment. Looking at current market sentiment and fundamental, we value bank
in the range of Rs.600 to Rs.770 per share. We have added rating on the stock with
current price target of Rs.700.
Current Valuation Range

19
PNB
Financial & Assuption
Source : Eastwind/ Company
Income Statement 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E
Interest Income 26986 36476 41893 43513 49565
Interest Expense 15179 23062 27037 26977 31875
NII 11807 13414 14857 16536 17691
Change (%) 39.3 13.6 10.8 11.3 7.0
Non Interest Income 3613 4203 4216 4240 4240
Total Income 15420 17617 19072 20775 21930
Change (%) 27.6 14.2 8.3 8.9 5.6
Pre Provision Profits 9056 10614 10907 11155 12500
Change (%) 23.6 17.2 2.8 2.3 12.1
Provisions 4622 3577 4386 6253 5059
PBT 4433 7037 6522 4902 7442
PAT 4433 4884 4748 3408 5209
Change (%) 13.5 10.2 -2.8 -28.2 52.8
Balance Sheet
Deposits( Rs Cr) 312899 379588 391560 450294 517838
Change (%) 25 21 3 15 15
of which CASA Dep 120325 134129 153344 139752 153766
Change (%) 18 11 14 -9 10
Borrowings( Rs Cr) 31590 37264 39621 47857 44728
Investments( Rs Cr) 95162 122703 129896 143572 149094
Loans( Rs Cr) 242107 293775 308725 339598 356578
Change (%) 30 21 5 10 5
Ratio
Avg. Yield on loans 8.7 9.7 10.3 9.6 10.5
Avg. Yield on Investments 6.0 6.4 7.4 7.2 7.8
Avg. Cost of Deposit 4.4 5.6 6.5 6.4 6.6
Avg. Cost of Borrowimgs 4.4 4.5 3.9 4.0 4.1
Valuation
Book Value 682 820 924 1000 1107
CMP 1220 926 759 543 543
P/BV 1.8 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.5

Persistent System.
Footing on Product Business, and working aggressively on new emerging services;
11%
Key facts from Management Interview to Media( on 20
th
March,2014)
1M 1yr YTD
Absolute 1.1 76.8 85.7
Rel. to Nifty 3.4 75.8 82.3
Promoters 38.96 38.96 38.96
FII 18.26 15.28 14.84
DII 18.78 21.23 19.31
Others 24 24.53 26.89
3QFY14 2QFY14 (QoQ)-% 3QFY13 (YoY)-%
432.75 432.37 0.1 332.98 30.0
104.3 100.8 3.5 82.4 26.6
64.2 60.8 5.6 49.5 29.7
24.1% 23.3% 80bps 24.7% (60bps)
14.8% 14.1% 70bps 14.9% (10bps)
20
1 year forward P/E-x
Rs, Crore
4236
EBITDA Margin
PAT Margin
"Persistently innovating.."
CMP 1059
Target Price 1070
On recent management Interview, Persistent System announced its new footing of
dedicated product business unit “Accelerite” to align its business strategy combined with
Products and IP (Intellectual Property) based on SMAC (Social, Mobility, Analytics,
Cloud) platform.
Company update Book Profit
Previous Target Price 960
Upside 1%
Nifty
6483
Stock Performance
PERSISTENT
52wk Range H/L 1220/477
Average Daily Volume 12139
Market Data
BSE Code 533179
NSE Symbol
PAT
(1) Persistent System is setting up a unit related to product and Product services, named it
“ Accelerite” to manage efficiently. They are taking some of its IP led products into this
Accelerite. We expect that company is able to compete as a product company, which
“Accelerite” will in the market.
(2) Management expects that the overall trends are looking good on Industry per se and
new emerging segment will play a major role for growth. Now, clients are moving into new
changes and focusing into new services and solution.
(3) For 4QFY14E, muted set of growth could be seen and expecting Intellectual Property
(IP) growth this quarter.
(4) The business outlook though is very positive in the sense, and they are seeing good
opportunities, good pipeline growth and many good interesting deals being signed.
(5) Persistent system is expecting to see IP led growth at a range of 18-19% in FY14E and
20%+ in FY15E driven by HPCA without any addition of new IPs. At same point of time,
they are also looking to scale strong potential of rCloud after adding new capabilities.
Persistent management suggests that deal pipeline are looking strong and seeing good
activity and traction in the market across the board. Its focus on some of newer
technologies like cloud, analytics and mobility, M2M, digital transformation are gaining
a lot of traction because of pickup in demand environment. Because of actively
investment in these themes, management is very confident to see healthy growth.
View and Valuation: The company’s focus is shifting greater proportion to IP led services
and company has marquee clientele in cutting-edge technologies around cloud, mobility,
digital and analytics; witnessing faster growth. Considering the company’s premium
valuation, we advice “Book Profit” on the stock. At a CMP of Rs 1059, stock trades at
13.4x FY15E earnings. Our view could be change with management guidance, higher
currency flactuations and post earnings of coming quarter.
Financials
Revenue
EBITDA
We cover Persistent System as one of the few companies in the tier-II with potential to
grow revenue at a range of 18-20%, specially focused on emerging business and
relationship building with marquee clients. Despite better predictability of growth and
attractive visibility of its expansion in new emerging verticals, we advice to book profit
on the stock because of its premium valuation.
"Book Profit"
21st Mar' 14

21
Financials
Persistent System.
Operating Metrics
2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY13 1QFY13 QFY13 3QFY13 4QFY13 1QFY14 2QFY14 3QFY14
Top1 16.0% 15.9% 17.2% 17.8% 20.7% 21.1% 21.6% 21.2% 22.5% 19.8%
Top 5 38.6% 37.0% 36.6% 33.5% 36.3% 37.3% 36.7% 34.7% 36.4% 36.9%
Top 10 49.4% 48.3% 48.8% 45.3% 47.0% 49.4% 47.9% 46.0% 47.3% 46.9%
Onsite - Linear 12665 12387 12603 12789 12863 12772 14014 14567 14283 14510
Offshore - Linear 3803 3778 3895 3898 3978 4032 4143 4111 4109 4179
Yeild per Employee(excld- Trainee) 3208 3247 3350 3345 3746 3817 3769 3602 3919 3934
Total Employee 6900 6706 6628 6536 6370 6719 6970 7144 7457 7602
Attrition 17.7% 17.4% 18.3% 18.9% 16.9% 16.0% 14.4% 14.2% 14.0% 13.2%
Utilization rate %(xclude IP Led ) 73.8% 74.1% 71.7% 74.1% 75.2% 77.3% 72.5% 70.0% 71.7% 72.9%
Billing Rate-USD/ppm
Employee Metrics
Client Concentration
Rs in Cr, FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E
Sales 601.16 775.84 1000.3 1294.5 1666.59 2061.72
Employee Cost 368.74 481.62 599.05 719 899.96 1123.64
Cost of technical professionals 0 30.67 41.68 54 91.66 113.39
Other expenses 86.05 105.24 135.2 218 291.65 366.99
Total expenses 454.79 617.53 775.93 990.78 1283.28 1604.02
EBITDA 146.37 158.31 224.37 303.72 383.32 457.70
Depreciation 33.52 42.39 61.1 78 100.55 93.54
Other Income 11.23 34.44 34.44 34.44 55.00 72.16
EBIT 112.85 115.92 163.27 225.44 282.76 364.16
Interest Cost 0 0 0.00 0.03 0.05 0.05
Profit (+)/Loss (-) Before Taxes 124.08 150.36 197.71 259.851 337.71 436.28
Provision for Taxes 9.05 10.62 55.09 75.37 92.03 119.98
Net Profit (+)/Loss (-) 115.03 139.74 142.62 184.481 245.69 316.30
Growth-% (YoY)
Sales 1.2% 29.1% 28.9% 29.4% 28.7% 23.7%
EBITDA 60.2% 8.2% 41.7% 35.4% 26.2% 19.4%
PAT 74.1% 21.5% 2.1% 29.4% 33.2% 28.7%
Expenses on Sales-%
Employee Cost 61.3% 62.1% 59.9% 55.5% 54.0% 54.5%
Other expenses 14.3% 13.6% 13.5% 16.9% 17.5% 17.8%
Tax rate 7.3% 7.1% 27.9% 29.0% 27.3% 27.5%
Margin-%
EBITDA 24.3% 20.4% 22.4% 23.5% 23.0% 22.2%
EBIT 18.8% 14.9% 16.3% 17.4% 17.0% 17.7%
PAT 19.1% 18.0% 14.3% 14.3% 14.7% 15.3%
Valuation:
CMP 310 366.7 409.2 541 1059 1059
No of Share 4 4 4 4 4 4
NW 639.0 747.1 840.5 1018.3 1212.5 1477.3
EPS 28.8 34.9 35.7 46.1 61.4 79.1
BVPS 159.7 186.8 210.1 254.6 303.1 369.3
RoE-% 18.0% 18.7% 17.0% 18.1% 20.3% 21.4%
P/BV 1.9 2.0 1.9 2.1 3.5 2.9
P/E 10.8 10.5 11.5 11.7 17.2 13.4

Narnolia Securities Ltd
402, 4th floor 7/ 1, Lords Sinha Road Kolkata 700071, Ph
033-32011233 Toll Free no : 1-800-345-4000
email: research@narnolia.com,
website : www.narnolia.com
Risk Disclosure & Disclaimer: This report/message is for the personal information of
the authorized recipient and does not construe to be any investment, legal or taxation
advice to you. Narnolia Securities Ltd. (Hereinafter referred as NSL) is not soliciting any
action based upon it. This report/message is not for public distribution and has been
furnished to you solely for your information and should not be reproduced or
redistributed to any other person in any from. The report/message is based upon publicly
available information, findings of our research wing “East wind” & information that we
consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and we do not
provide any express or implied warranty of any kind, and also these are subject to change
without notice. The recipients of this report should rely on their own investigations,
should use their own judgment for taking any investment decisions keeping in mind that
past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance & that the the value of
any investment or income are subject to market and other risks. Further it will be safe to
assume that NSL and /or its Group or associate Companies, their Directors, affiliates
and/or employees may have interests/ positions, financial or otherwise, individually or
otherwise in the recommended/mentioned securities/mutual funds/ model funds and
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