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presentation 12
1.
BY NAVEEN KUMAR
DUTTA MBA (FINANCE),FINANCIAL MODELING
2.
Assumptions - Bus Cost
of Bus 7,500,000 Maintenance / year 10% Escalation Rate - Maintenance 15% Life of Bus (years) 4 Deprecation Rate 25%
3.
Assumptions - Operating
Revenues Seating Capacity 35 Load Factor 50% Tariff (Rs./Ticket) 300.00 Escalation Rate - Tariff 10%
4.
Assumptions - Operating
Costs Fuel Efficiency ( Km / L ) 5 Driver Cost (Rs./ Trip) 500 Miscellaneous (Rs. / Trip) 500 Toll Amount (Rs. / Trip) 500
5.
Assumptions - General
Tax Rate 33% Debt is to be repaid in 4 equal annual installments at the end of every year Interest Income 5% Diesel rate (Rs./Lit) 42 Diesel Price escalation 15% Inflation 10%
6.
Assumptions - Operating General
Route Mumbai - Pune Distance (Kms) 155 Estimated Time Hours/Trip 3 Trips / Day 4
7.
Assumptions - Financing
Debt 75% Equity 25% Interest on Debt 15% Tenure of loan (years) 4 Cost of Equity 20%
8.
2016 2017
2018 2019 2020 Flag 0 1 2 3 4 Revenue 7,665,000 8,431,500 9,274,650 10,202,115 Other Income Fuel Costs 1,900,920 2,186,058 2,513,967 2,891,062 Maintenance Expenses 750,000 862,500 991,875 1,140,656 Driver Costs 730,000 803,000 883,300 971,630 Miscellaneous Costs 730,000 803,000 883,300 971,630 Toll Amount 730,000 730,000 730,000 730,000 Cost of Revenues 4,840,920 5,384,558 6,002,442 6,704,978
9.
2016 2017 2018
2019 2020 Gross Pofit / (EBITDA) 2,824,080 3,046,942 3,272,208 3,497,137 Depreciation 1,875,000 1,875,000 1,875,000 1,875,000 Interest Expense 843,750 674,776 480,456 256,988 Profit Before Tax 105,330 497,166 916,752 1,365,149 Income Taxes 34,759 164,065 302,528 450,499 Profit After Tax 70,571 333,101 614,224 914,650
10.
2016 2017 2018
2019 2020 BOP - Debt 5,625,000 5,625,000 4,498,507 3,203,041 1,713,254 Int Expense 843,750 674,776 480,456 256,988 EAI 1,970,243 1,970,243 1,970,243 1,970,243 EOP - Debt 4,498,507 3,203,041 1,713,254 (0) Principle Repaid 1,126,493 1,295,466 1,489,786 1,713,254 LINKED TO BALANCE SHEET IN ” EXCEL”
11.
2016 2017 2018
2019 2020 Assets Cash 819,078 1,731,713 2,731,151 3,807,546 PPE, Gross 7,500,000 7,500,000 7,500,000 7,500,000 7,500,000 Acc Depreciation - 1,875,000 3,750,000 5,625,000 7,500,000 PPE, Net 7,500,000 5,625,000 3,750,000 1,875,000 - Total Assets 7,500,000 6,444,078 5,481,713 4,606,151 3,807,546
12.
Liabilities Debt 5,625,000 4,498,507
3,203,041 1,713,254 (0) Equity 1,875,000 1,875,000 1,875,000 1,875,000 1,875,000 Retained Profit 70,571 403,672 1,017,896 1,932,546 Total Liabilities 7,500,000 6,444,078 5,481,713 4,606,151 3,807,546 LINKED TO DEBT SCHEDULE
13.
2016 2017 2018
2019 2020 Net Income (PAT) 70,571 333,101 614,224 914,650 Depreciation 1,875,000 1,875,000 1,875,000 1,875,000 Cash Flow From Operations - 1,945,571 2,208,101 2,489,224 2,789,650 Capex (7,500,000) Cash Flow from Investing (7,500,000) - - - - Debt (Repayment)/Issuance 5,625,000 (1,126,493) (1,295,466) (1,489,786) (1,713,254) Equity Addition 1,875,000 Cash Flow from Financing 7,500,000 (1,126,493) (1,295,466) (1,489,786) (1,713,254) Net change in Cash - 819,078 912,635 999,437 1,076,395 Cash - BOP 819,078 1,731,713 2,731,151 Cash - EOP 819,078 1,731,713 2,731,151 3,807,546
14.
2016 2017 2018
2019 2020 Net Income - 70,571 333,101 614,224 914,650 + Depreciation - 1,875,000 1,875,000 1,875,000 1,875,000 - Capital Expenses (7,500,000) - - - - - Debt Repayment/+ raised 5,625,000 (1,126,493) (1,295,466) (1,489,786) (1,713,254) Cash Flow to Equity (1,875,000) 819,078 912,635 999,437 1,076,395
15.
2016 2017 2018
2019 2020 FCFE (1,875,000) 819,078 912,635 999,437 1,076,395 Cost of Equity 20.0% NPV 538,813 IRR 33.80%
16.
Financing Debt (%)
- For Neutral Case InterestRate(%) 34% 10% 25% 40% 55% 95% 12% 17.4% 19.2% 21.8% 26.0% 129.0% 13% 17.3% 19.0% 21.4% 25.3% 121.5% 14% 17.3% 18.8% 21.0% 24.6% 113.8% 15% 17.2% 18.6% 20.6% 23.9% 105.9% 16% 17.1% 18.4% 20.2% 23.1% 97.9% 17% 17.1% 18.2% 19.8% 22.4% 89.7%
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