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NATURAL POPULATION INCREASE – balance between births and deaths in any year and is expressed as a
percentage of the total population at the beginning of the year
BIRTH RATE – number of births per 1000 of the population
DEATH RATE – number of deaths per 1000 of the population
FERTILITY RATE – number of children born to a women if she is to live to the end of her child bearing years.
INFANT MORTALITY – number of children who die before the age of 1
LIFE EXPECTENCY – number of years a person is expected to live
DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES IN RECENT YEARS
• The acceleration of population growth after
1850 was due to a fall in the death rate
• Late 1960, the population growth rate has
started to decline due to a drop in the birth
• Africa has the largest population growth rate
and Asia has the largest population
• The current world population is 7,7 billion
CHANGES IN CHINA’S DEMOGRAPHIC STRUCTURE
China has the largest population in the world
In 1950 the death rate was 18 deaths per 1000 of the population and the life expectancy was 35 years.
The death rate decreased to 6,4 deaths per 1000 in 2002 and has increase to 7,26 as the population has aged
China’s current life expectancy is 76.5 years.
The birth rate in 150 was 18 births per 1000
During the 1970 the birth rate decreased due to the following reasons:
- Decrease in infant mortality
- Increased employment of women
- Birth control campaigns
The current birth rate in China is 11,63 births per 1000
It is predicted that China’s population will decline after 2030 because the death rate will exceed the birth rate
DEATH RATE AND MORTALITY RATE ACROSS THE
AGING POPULATION – when a population has a large number of old people, the death rate is likely to be higher, because old people
are most likely to die than young people
HEALTH AND NUTRITION – Death rate has fallen in most countries because of an improvement in health care and nutrition. In some
countries however, the death rate has risen because of famine, war, aid, or Ebola
URBANIZATION – in the 19th century, death rates were high in urban areas in Britain because of the large number of infectious
diseases. However death rates are lower now in urban areas because of the greater availability of medical care in these areas.
LEVEL OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT – as a country develops, there is a greater proportion of the people who live in urban areas,
which lowers the death rate. As economic development increases, there is a shift from infectious diseases to degenerative
GENDER – women live longer than men. Women also have lower rates of infant mortality
WAR – WW2 – 24 million people were killed in the Soviet Union. Most of those killed were men.
BIRTH RATE AND FERTILITY RATE
• Economies based on agriculture – children needed to farm the land – high birth rate
• In countries that have a lower life expectancy parents have more children – baby bank
• In LIC countries children are expected to look after their parents – high birth rate
• More educated women are, the higher their status and the lower the birth rate.
• Fertility rates then to be lower in cities because children are much harder to support
• Family planning is more readily available in urban areas rather than in cities.
• If there are many people of child bearing age then the BR will be higher
• Some religions oppose the use of contraception
• Baby boom generally occurs immediately after a war.
• Early marriages in some cultures, increases the child bearing years on women and thus increases the birth rate.
• Government policies can encourage people to have children or prevent them from having children
• E.g. China one child policy and the Pro-Natal policy in Singapore
CASE STUDY - ANTI-NATAL POLICY – CHINA’S.
ONE CHILD POLICY
• During the 1940’s the Chinese government encouraged people to have large families to increase its military power
• This led to over population. It is estimated that the population increased by 55 million in 3 years.
• During the 1950’s and 1960’s the Chinese government tried to address the problem by encouraging couples to have less
• However this still wasn’t enough as the population was growing at a rapid rate.
• In 1979 the government introduced the ONE CHILD POLICY
ONE CHILD POLICY
• Couples had to apply for a certificate before they were allowed to have a child
• The Chinese government provided housing, food, and health services to those people who complied with the policy
• Those that did not comply had to pay large fines to the government
• They were not given any social benefits
• Women who became pregnant with the second child were forced to have an abortion and they were given forced
• Many people argued that the one child policy was taking away their basic human rights of choice.
• Sex selective abortions – couples were aborting girl babies because they wanted their only child to be a son
• Little emperor syndrome – boys were treated very well and girls were treated badly and abandoned.
• Sharp increase in the number of orphans particularly girls
• High divorce rate involving women whose first child turned out to be a girl.
The one child policy was a success in that it reduced China’s population by nearly 300 million
By the end of the 1990’s the birth rate had fallen from 31 to 19 births per 1000 of the population
The policy was a failure in that it created a gender imbalance in China with more boys than girls.
There is also not enough people to maintain to labor force of the country
Men struggle to find wives.
CASE STUDY – PRO NATAL POLICY –
• Pro-natal policy introduced in Singapore in 1987
• Birth rate had fallen to only 1.4 children per couple
• Governments slogan was have 3 or more children if you can afford it
• The governments social development network encouraged educated Singaporean couples to marry and procreate.
• The government offered financial incentives of 8000 SD per child
• Mothers with the 3rd or 4th child got generous financial benefits.
• Families with more than 2 children get priority access to school, health care and housing
• the hospital costs of the third child is reduced.
• Abortions of convivence are discouraged.
• A tax rebate is given to mothers who have their 3rd child before the age of 28
• Most Singaporean women are highly educated and prefer to have less children
• The fertility rate remains low at 1,25%
The ratio between the number of dependents and those who are economically active.
DR = Number of children (0-14) and elderly (over 64) X 100
Number of people aged 15-64
The dependency ratio is not a very accurate measure:
• Does not take into consideration those people who are unemployed in a country
• Those who choose not to work
• Those who work after the age of 64
• In many countries children 16 – 21 do not have paid jobs
Countries with a high birth rate have a high dependency ratio e.g. Uganda’s dependency ratio is 102
Countries with a long life expectancy have a high dependency ratio e.g. Japan’s dependency ratio is 62
Countries with a large number of migrants have a low dependency ratio e.g. United Arab Emirates DR = 19
CASE STUDY – COUNTRIES WITH A LARGE
YOUNG POPULATION – UGANDA
48.47% of the population is in the 0-14 year age group.
• High fertility rate
• High infant mortality rate encourages more births
• Children are considered a social and economic asset
• High death rate decreases the number of young dependents
• Fewer young people to support
• Large future labor force
• Overpopulation/over crowding
• Squatter settlements
• Food shortages
• Pressure on the government and the working class to support the young people
• Pressure to provide social services e.g. schools, medical care etc.
CASE STUDY – COUNTRY WITH A LARGE OLD
POPULATION – JAPAN
The number of old people above the age of 65 is rapidly increasing in many developed countries. E.g. Japan
The current number of old people in Japan above the age of 65 is 26% it is estimated that this will increase to almost 40% in
ADVANTAGES OF AN AGING POPULATION
• Development of grey industries ( industries that care for old people)
• Elderly will pass skills and expertise to the young people
• Elderly may take care of the young people allowing parents to work at full capacity
DISADVANTAGES OF AN AGING POPULATION
• Financial burden of elderly due to them not being able to work
• Cost of pensions places a strain on the working class
• Fewer people to defend the country
• Decrease in the labor force
• Infrastructure needs to be adapted to accommodate the old people
DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION MODEL
POPULATION- RESOURCE RELATIONSHIP
In-order to understand the relationship between population and resources you need to understand the following concepts
• In 1798 Rev. Thomas Malthus publish a book called “An essay on the
principals of population”
• He said that population will always tend to rise to the level which
exceeds the amount of resources available at this point, the population
levels will crash
POSITIVE AND PREVENTATIVE CHECKS TO THE
Malthus said that when population growth exceeds the carrying capacity, there will be positive and negative checks that will
cause a reduction in population
POSITVE CHECKS - POPULATION IS REDUCED BY
• Increase in death rate through
• Natural disasters
PREVENTATIVE CHECKS – population is reduced by
• Birth control
• Anti-natal policies
• Delayed marriages
OTHER RESEARCHERS THAT SUPPORT MALTHUS THEORY
• Researchers who support Malthus’s theory are called Neo Malthusian
Paul R. Ehrlich (1968) – he published a book called the ”population bomb”.
In his book he states that in 1970 millions of people will starve to death in spite of any
effort to provide enough food to support
The growing population
Club of Rome (1972) – published a report called “limits to growth” This report used
computer modelling to show that rapid population growth will exceed the resources
available to support them
Some biologist also talk about carrying capacity of an area. – refers to animals but the
analogy has been applied to humans. It refers to when the carrying capacity of an
environment is exceeded then that environment will start to degrade .
LIMITS TO MALTHUS’S THEORY
• Over the past 40 years, food production has grown more rapidly than
population due to technological innovation
• Between 1950 and 2000 human population increased two and half times but
food production more than tripled.
• Food shortages are mainly caused by inequality and poverty rather than rapid
• There is enough food to feed the world but the poor countries sometimes
cannot afford it.
• Food shortages are also due to war which prevents food from getting to
where it should be
• The institute of applied systems analysis concluded that there is
approximately 1,3 billion hectares of land that could be profitable farmed.
ESTHER BOSERUP (1910 -1999)
• Danish economist - studied agricultural development
• Made important adjustments to Malthusian Theory
• She adapted the theory to adapt more to societal changes and
• FAO – 805 million people were suffering from malnutrition in
2012 – 2014
• Sub-Saharan Africa had the highest rate of malnutrition
• Number of countries suffering from FAMINE has decreased.
• Large famines in the past:
1998 Sudan (war and drought)
1998 -2000 Ethiopia (war and drought)
1998 – 2004 DRC (war)
2011- 2012 Somalia (drought).
2012 Sahel region of Africa
TECHNOLOGY AND FOOD SUPPLY
THE GREEN REVOLUTION
Watch the video on the Green revolution and read the notes on page 102 of the textbook and
write a summary of how technology, increased food supply
POPULATION FOOD RELATIONSHIPS – FIVE DIFFERENT TYPES OF COUNTRIES.
1. BIG TRADITIONAL FOOD PRODUCERS
• Most of these countries have good climate and
• Farmers use hybrid seeds, Nitrogen fertilizers
• Excellent infrastructure
• Good markets
• Stable governments
2. EMERGING FOOD EXPORTERS
• Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, Paraguay, Bolivia, Russia,
Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Thailand, Vietnam and Myanmar
• Started exporting food relatively recently
• Lots of arable land per person
• Fertile river deltas
• Good rainfall throughout the year allowing for rice
3. COUNTRIES THAT ARE SELF-SUFFICIENT
• Food production has kept up with
• Benefited from the use of high-
yielding seed varieties and western
HIGH INCOME FOOD IMPORTERS
These are HIC’s but they
import food because of the
• Limited land
• Limited water
• Dense population
5. LOW INCOME FOOD IMPORTERS
• Do not produce enough
food to feed their
• Farmers are uneducated
• They don’t use technology
• Governments are corrupt
• War and civil unrest are
CASE STUDY – A COUNTRY WITH INADEQUATE
FOOD – YEMEN
Watch the video and read the following
• Text book pages 105
Write a case of inadequate food supply in Yemen. Use the following headings
• Causes of food insecurity
• Possible solutions