Discover what markets could look like in the future and some of the strategies investors use in order to continue meeting their retirement goals with Josh Hall from Aberdeen Asset Management.
7. 7
Falling bond yields
Traditional asset classes less likely to deliver
Source: Aberdeen Asset Management, Dec 16.
Past performance is not a guide to future results.
Increasing equity risks
-3
0
3
6
9
12
1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
US Germany UK
8. 8
Next 10 Years? (%pa)
Source: Aberdeen Asset Management. Equity represented by a blend of MSCI UK and World Equity; Bonds by FTSE All Stock Gilts ; and the 60/40 portfolio a 60%equity, 40% bond
blend. Data to 31 Mar 2017. Past performance is not a guide to future returns.
0%
5%
10%
Historically traditional asset classes have delivered
…but unlikely to going forward
20 Year Return (%pa) 30 Year Return (%pa)10 Year Return (%pa)
0%
5%
10%
Equity Bonds 60/40
0%
5%
10%
Equity Bonds 60/40
0%
5%
10%
Equity Bonds 60/40
0%
5%
10%
Equity Bonds 60/40
10. 10
Emerging market bond valuations stand out
Yield (%)
EM HC Sovereign: JPM EMBI Global Diversified Index; EM LC Sovereign: JPM GBI-EM Global Diversified Index; DM Sovereign: JPM GBI Global Index
Indexes are unmanaged and have been provided for comparison purposes only. No fees or expenses are reflected. Individuals cannot invest directly in an index.
Past performance is not a guide to future results
Source: JP Morgan, 31 Dec 16. For illustrative purposes only
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
EM HC Sovereign EM LC Sovereign DM Sovereign
11. 11
And so where does this leave us?
• A greater need to be unconstrained than ever before
• Benchmark weights as starting point won’t work as well
• Look for less traditional sources of return
• Challenge convention
12. 12
Growth of the listed alternative market
Source: Numis. Mar 17
Growth of listed alternative market
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
Mar-07 Mar-09 Mar-11 Mar-13 Mar-15 Mar-17
Market Cap £m Infrastructure Specialist Debt Property Private Equity Hedge
13. 13
Diversification benefits of listed alternatives
• Listed alternatives provide access to diversifying assets in a
liquid form…
• …but this raises the concern that they may sell-off in line
with equities in periods of market stress (as REITs tend to)
• Listed alternatives have far lower economic exposure than
REITs…
• …and are typically not part of equity managers’ portfolios so
less susceptible to market sell-offs
• …as illustrated by low falls in share prices in equity market
sell-offs to date
• In our scenario analysis we consider how listed alternatives,
and the rest of the portfolio, might perform in various future
extreme scenarios
Returns in periods since 2007 when global equities have fallen by more
than 10%
-70.0%
-65.0%
-60.0%
-55.0%
-50.0%
-45.0%
-40.0%
-35.0%
-30.0%
-25.0%
-20.0%
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
Oct07-Mar09
Apr10-Jul10
Jul11-Oct11
Mar12-Jun12
Jul15-Sep15
Dec15-Feb16
Global equities
Global REITS
Listed alternatives
Source: Aberdeen Asset Management. Global equities represented by MSCI World (hedged to GBP); Global REITS by FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Developed. Listed
alternatives represents the simple average of the returns of the 25 listed alternatives held within the DGF at 31 Jan 2017 (excluding private equity and CLO equity
funds where no diversification benefits are expected). Given most funds were launched in the last 5 years the earliest 4 periods only include 2 – 6 funds. Periods
chosen based on maximum drawdown when equities have fallen by more than 10%. Past performance is not a guide to future results.
14. 14
Amedeo Air Four Plus – Emirates planes Investment overview
• Portfolio comprises eight Airbus A380 and two Boeing 777
planes which are on long term leases to Emirates and Etihad
airlines
• A mixture of equity and debt is used to purchase the aircraft
Return
• Long-term return driven by leasing income as well as from the
potential sale of the aircraft at the end of the leases
• Target return of 10-12% p.a.. Yield of 8%
Risk
• Emirates/Etihad defaults and the manager can’t re-lease the
planes
• Re-sale value of planes after 12 years may be lower (or higher)
than expected
Aircraft leasing
Selected for illustrative purposes only to demonstrate management style and not as an indication of future performance or investment recommendation.
Source: Amedeo Air Four Plus
15. 15
Catastrophe bond returns since 2001
Insurance-linked securities
Investment overview
• Invests in contracts providing cover against insurance losses
due to extreme natural catastrophes
Return
• Priced to deliver an expected return of 10% p.a. net of fees and
expected losses
Risk
• Diversified across perils to mitigate impact of any one extreme
event
• Asset class has no economic exposure and hence is
uncorrelated to equities and other asset classes
Investment route
• Catco provides higher expected return than cat bonds
• Aberdeen Multi-Asset exposure since 2015
* Source: Bloomberg, Swiss Re 30 April 2015. Indices rebased to 100 at 31 Dec 2001.
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Jan
2002
May
2003
Sep
2004
Jan
2006
May
2007
Sep
2008
Jan
2010
May
2011
Sep
2012
Jan
2014
Swiss Re Cat bond Index MSCI World
Hurricane
Katrina, Rita,
Wilma
Hurricane Ike
Hurricane Irene,
Tornadoes in the US,
Tohoku Earthquake
Selected for illustrative purposes only to demonstrate management style and not as an indication of future performance
16. 16
Indian Bonds
Investment overview
• Large, liquid bond market (in excess of $1tn)
• Improving fundamentals, supported by structural
reform and increasing central bank credibility
Return
• Potential for yield in excess of 7% pa
Risk
• Relatively low correlation to global equities and other
global and regional bond markets
• Low overseas ownership of bond market (6%) due to
market constraints
• Diversifiable country-specific risks are main
consideration
Selected for illustrative purposes only to demonstrate management style and not as an
indication of future performance or investment recommendation.
Source: Aberdeen
18. 18
What are the investment objectives under a goals-based approach?
Outcome Based Investing
Pay My Bills Enjoy My Retirement Leave a Legacy
Portfolio
Investment
need
- Regular predictable cashflow
- Line of sight on my income (replacing
my wage)
- Inflation-like capital growth
- Please don’t lose my money!
- Benchmarks are irrelevant!
- Irregular drawdowns of capital
- Steady real returns (above CPI) over time
- Please don’t lose my money!
- Benchmarks are irrelevant!
- Long term wealth creation
- Exposure to global high growth assets
- Low turnover, low realised capital
gains
- Benchmarks are irrelevant!
Investment
answer?
??? ??? ???
Source: Aberdeen Asset Management Nov 16, portfolios shown are for illustrative purposes only
19. 19
What are the investment objectives under a goals-based approach?
Outcome Based Investing
Pay My Bills Enjoy My Retirement Leave a Legacy
Portfolio
Investment
need
- Regular predictable cashflow
- Line of sight on my income (replacing
my wage)
- Inflation-like capital growth
- Please don’t lose my money!
- Benchmarks are irrelevant!
- Irregular drawdowns of capital
- Steady real returns (above CPI) over time
- Please don’t lose my money!
- Benchmarks are irrelevant!
- Long term wealth creation
- Exposure to global high growth assets
- Low turnover, low realised capital
gains
- Benchmarks are irrelevant!
Investment
answer?
Aberdeen Multi-Asset Income
Fund
- Income higher than TD’s / cash
- Capital growth in line with CPI
- Pre-announce distributions
Aberdeen Multi-Asset Real Return
Fund
- Real return of CPI +5% (gross)
Equities
Other growth assets
Source: Aberdeen Asset Management Nov 16, portfolios shown are for illustrative purposes only
21. 21
Aberdeen Multi-Asset Income Fund (MAIF)
Objectives:
1. Aim of delivering an income yield each year that
exceeds the RBA Cash Rate, and
2. Capital growth over the medium to long term to
offset the risk of inflation.
• Pre-announce distributions up to 12 months in advance
• Combines term deposit and annuity product features (line
of sight on income) with a liquidity benefits of a unit trust
• Designed specifically to meet the income needs of retirees
• Benchmark unaware approach to investing
• Launch date: October 2008
Key features
Strategy inception: Oct 08; Apr 09 is the earliest start date available of the income/capital growth/franking credit components of the total return, hence the
performance chart commences at this date. Source: Aberdeen Asset Management, Jun 17. Past performance is not a guide to future results.
Income objective
Growth objective
0%
20%
40%
60%
Apr 09 Apr 10 Apr 11 Apr 12 Apr 13 Apr 14 Apr 15 Apr 16 Apr 17
CumulativeReturn
Distribution Return Value of Franking Credits
RBA Cash Rate Avg Special Deposit Rates
-5%
5%
15%
25%
35%
Jun 12 Jun 13 Jun 14 Jun 15 Jun 16 Jun 17
CumulativeReturn
Growth Return CPI
22. 22
MAIF – Portfolio allocation
Portfolio
Management
Current allocation
30 Jun 2017
Aberdeen Multi-Asset Income Fund
Ranges
(%)
Australian Equities (High Dividend) 0-50*
International Equities (High Dividend) 0-15*
Local Property 0-50*
Alternatives 0-5
Fixed Income (Sovereign, ILBs and Investment Grade:
domestic and global)
0-50
Credit (Sub-Investment Grade) 0-25
Floating Rate Income and Cash 5-70
Total 100
Min (%) Max (%)
Growth Assets 0 65
Income Assets 50 100
*Maximum 65% allocation to Australian, Int’l equities and property (combined)
Source: Aberdeen Asset Management. Numbers have been rounded
Australian
Equities
33%
Local
Property
7%
Fixed
Income
20%
Credit
14%
Floating Rate
Income and
Cash
13%
Global MA
Income
13%
23. 2323
MAIF – maintaining competitive yields without undue risk
Source: Aberdeen Asset Management, RBA. CPU is net of fees, gross of taxes. TD Rates: Average special deposit rates for all maturities
Past performance is not a guide to future results.
MAIF yield has maintained 4-5% range despite declining market rates
Volatility
(p.a.)
FY 09/10 FY 10/11 FY 11/12 FY 12/13 FY 13/14 FY 14/15 FY 15/16 FY 16/17 FY 17/18
5.29% 1.87% 4.18% 4.58% 2.83% 4.99% 4.63% 4.64 N/A
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
7.00%
FY 09/10 FY 10/11 FY 11/12 FY 12/13 FY 13/14 FY 14/15 FY 15/16 FY 16/17 FY 17/18
(forecast)Fund Yield Avg Special Deposit Rates RBA cash rate
24. 24
The Aberdeen Multi-Asset Income Fund was known as Aberdeen Sustainable Income Fund until 31 Mar 2010
Performance figures are calculated using end-of-month exit prices, post standard fees 0.72% pa (net) or pre standard fees (gross), reflect the annual reinvestment of distributions and
make no allowance for tax
1 Aberdeen Multi-Asset Income Fund financial year ends 30 June.
Source: Aberdeen Asset Management, State Street, AUD
Note: management changed to Aberdeen Asset Management 1 May 2009. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
MAIF – Performance
Financial year returns1 To 30 Jun 2017
FY 2010/2011 FY 2011/2012 FY 2012/2013 FY 2013/2014
FY
2014/2015
FY
2015/2016
FY
2016/2017
3 Years (pa)
Distribution Return
(Regular Distribution + Income Reserve)
A 5.84 6.17 4.46 3.65 4.48 4.07 4.24 4.26
Franking Credits B 0.67 0.45 0.49 0.32 0.56 0.52 0.80 0.64
Income (including franking credits) C (A+B) 6.51 6.62 4.95 3.97 5.04 4.59 5.04 4.90
Growth return D 2.15 0.32 6.68 5.50 3.00 0.71 3.12 2.27
Return – Gross of Fees, Grossed up for
Franking Credits
E (C+D)
Gross
8.66 6.94 11.63 9.47 8.04 5.30 8.16 7.17
Return – Net of Fees, Grossed up for
Franking Credits
E
Net
7.89 6.18 10.84 8.69 7.27 4.55 7.39 6.41
25. 25
Aberdeen Multi-Asset Real Return Fund
• Objective:
“To achieve a real return equivalent to 5% per
annum above inflation (before fees) over a full
market cycle (generally 3 to 5 years).”
• Fund MER 0.84% pa
• No entry or exit fees
• Launch date: September 2012
• Truly diversified portfolio
• Use of traditional and alternative assets
• Managed with client’s objectives in mind
• Aims to have considerably less volatility than equities
• Benchmark unaware approach to investing
Key features
Strategy inception: 1 Sept 2012
Source: Aberdeen Asset Management, Jun 17
Past performance is not a guide to future results.
Performance, after fees
$9,000
$10,000
$11,000
$12,000
$13,000
$14,000
$15,000
Aug-2012 Aug-2013 Aug-2014 Aug-2015 Aug-2016
Aberdeen MARRF (net) Aberdeen MARRF (gross)
CPI CPI+5
26. 26
Current allocation
Source: Aberdeen Asset Management
* can be zero in extreme environments
30 Jun 2017
MARRF – Portfolio allocation
Asian & Emerging
Equity
4%
Developed
Markets Equity
30%
Global HY Credit
10%
Global Loans
7%
Emerging Market
Debt 13%
Global Investment
Grade
9%
Australian
Index-Linked
1%
Absolute
Return/Hedge
Funds
5%
Infrastructure
3%
Property
3%
Cash & Short
terms Maturity
4%
Listed Alts
Asset Likely range (%)
Global Equities 20* - 45
Asian and emerging equities 0 – 30
Developed market equities 0 – 30
Global Bonds 0 – 50
Global HY credit 0 – 15
Emerging Market Debt 0 – 15
Global Investment Grade credit 0 – 25
Total Return 0 – 25
Australian Fixed Income 0 – 15
Australian Index-linked 0 – 25
Alternatives 0 – 30
Hedge funds 0 – 10
Infrastructure 0 – 10
Private equity 0 – 10
Gold 0 – 5
Property 0 – 15
Cash & Short Maturity Income 0 – 15
27. 27
MARRF – performance
Source: Aberdeen Asset Management
^ Volatility (annualised): Aberdeen Asset Management
*To MSCI World Index
# To Bloomberg Australian Bank Bill Index
Past performance is not a guide to future results.
3 years to 30 Jun 17 Beta* Volatility^ Sharpe Ratio#
Aberdeen Multi-Asset Real Return Fund 0.31 4.63 0.36
MSCI World AC ex Aust. - AUD 10.18
S&P/ASX200 Accumulation Index 12.53
AUD
to 30 Jun 17
(%)
Calendar Years
3 months 6 months 1 year 3 years
(p.a.)
Since
inception
(p.a.)*
2014 2015 2016
Aberdeen Multi-Asset Real Return Fund (Gross) 2.4 5.6 12.0 8.7 8.6 10.5 5.0 9.9
Aberdeen Multi-Asset Real Return Fund (Net) 2.2 5.2 11.1 7.8 7.7 9.6 4.1 9.0
Benchmark (CPI) 0.5 0.8 1.7 2.1 2.2 2.7 2.2 1.8
Target (CPI+5%) 1.8 3.3 6.7 7.1 7.2 7.7 7.2 6.8
*Strategy Inception: 1 Sep 2012
Past performance is not a guide to future results.
Net performance figures are calculated using end-of-month exit prices, post standard fees, reflect the annual reinvestment of distributions and make no allowance for tax
Gross performance figures are calculated using end-of-month exit prices, pre-fees, reflect the annual reinvestment of distributions and make no allowance for tax
Source: Aberdeen Asset Management, State Street
Equity-like returns with less than one-third to half the volatility
28. 28
Issued by Aberdeen Asset Management Limited, ABN 59 002 123 364 AFSL No. 240263. This document is
only intended for professional investors. This document has been prepared with care, is based on sources
believed to be reliable and opinions expressed are honestly held as at the applicable date. However it is of a
general nature only and we accept no liability for any errors or omissions. This is not an offer of securities.
This document has been prepared without taking account of your individual objectives, financial situation or
needs. You should obtain your own investment, taxation and other advice and consider the offer document
before deciding whether to acquire, or to continue to hold units in a Fund. Investments are subject to
investment risk, including possible delays in repayment and loss of income and principal invested. Past
performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Any performance forecasts are not promises of future
performance and are not guaranteed. This document may describe some current internal investment
guidelines and processes which are constantly under review and may change. Although this document is
provided in good faith, it is not intended to create any legal liability on the part of Aberdeen. All indices are
copyrighted by and proprietary to the issuer.
Disclaimer