Frauke Röser presented on “Informing the revision of NDCs: what can long-term strategies bring to NDCs?” at COP25 in December 2019.

1. Informing the revision of NDCs:
What can long-term strategies
bring to NDCs?
COP25 Side Event
3 December 2019
Insights from the NDC Update Report 2019

2. NDC Update Report 2019
NewClimate Institute | Slide 2
Prepared under IKI funded Ambition to
Action project – partnership with TNO +
NDC Cluster
Focus on LTS in context of NDC ambition
• NDC implementation progress and confidence
• LTS planning and current status
• Paris alignment of LTS
• Reflections on LTS from different perspectives
Includes survey on NDC and LTS progress
• 100 respondents
• 66 countries
Insights from the NDC Update Report 2019

3. Survey results - NDC revision
NewClimate Institute | Slide 3

4. NewClimate Institute | Slide 4
Survey results – LTS planning
Insights from the NDC Update Report 2019

5. Key elements of an LTS, and LTS process
NewClimate Institute | Slide 5
LTS are about the process, not the document
LTS should include pathways for GHG emissions until 2050
and beyond – in line with the long term temperature goal
LTS should encompass all sectors of the economy including
aviation and shipping
LTS should be an ongoing visioning exercise
Requires extensive coordination efforts involving all
stakeholders
LTS should reflect immediate next steps in the short term
LTS should outline finance and other support requirements
LTS should reflect SDGs and adaptation synergies and
trade-offs

6. 13 LTS submitted to UNFCCC at time of writing
All countries engaged stakeholders in the development of their LTS
Majority of countries present their LTS as “living documents”, underlining the necessity to assess and
update scenarios and pathways according to available data
Four countries aim for net zero GHG emissions by 2050 (Portugal, Fiji, Republic of the Marshall
Islands, Germany) - most referring to the 1.5°C target
• Fiji explicitly considers reaching GHG neutrality by 2041
• The UK and France have retroactively adjusted their 2050 target to net-zero GHG emissions
Three countries plan coal phase out: Portugal, France, UK
• Marshall Islands: kerosene phase out for cooking and lighting
• Germany: fossil phase out but no specific timeline
Highlights from submitted LTS
NewClimate Institute | Slide 6Insights from the NDC Update Report 2019

7. Key conclusions
NewClimate Institute | Slide 7
Current NDC progress and confidence continues
to be high
Ambitious NDC still face challenges – mostly
related to costs, economic consequences; private
sector buy-in also frequently mentioned
> half of respondents cannot yet provide clarity
on whether next NDC will be more ambitious
Few LTS submitted; lack of common
understanding on scope and purpose
> half of respondents had not started LTS
process; some expected country will not submit
an LTS in 2020
70% confirm that LTS will be consistent with Paris
Agreement goal…
NDC ambition raising not yet established as a continuous process and
LTSs not a prominent feature of current NDC related processes
Majority of countries in early stages – delivery of robust, evidence based
LTS in 2020 looks difficult
NDCs LTSs

8. www.newclimate.org
Thank you
Frauke Roeser
+49 151 68409310
f.roeser@newclimate.org