Presentation from New Economic and Demographic Normals

1. New Economic and
Demographic Normals
James W. Hughes, Dean
2016

3. Dr. Kevorkian

5. Late 20th Century Go-Go Economy
Early 21st Century No-Go/Slow Go
Economy

6. New Jersey’s Economic Roller Coaster
(Total employment change for periods indicated)
(24,800)
622,400
(260,100)
577,300
(58,200)
127,000
(259,000)
211,900
-400,000
-200,000
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
1981-1982 1982-1989 1989-1992 1992-2000 2000-2002 2002-2008 2008-2010 2010-present
NumberofJobs
7 Months
83 Months
37 Months
104 Months
19 Months
66 Months
32 Months
Recessions: September 1981 - April 1982; March 1989 – April 1992; December 2000 – July 2002; January 2008 – September 2010
Expansions: April 1982 - March 1989; April1992 - December 2000; July 2002 – January 2008; September 2010 – December 2015
63 Months
Source: New Jersey Department of Labor. Note: ( ) indicates employment loss.

7. New Jersey’s Economic Roller Coaster
(Total employment change for periods indicated)
(24,800)
622,400
(260,100)
577,300
(58,200)
127,000
(259,000)
211,900
-400,000
-200,000
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
1981-1982 1982-1989 1989-1992 1992-2000 2000-2002 2002-2008 2008-2010 2010-present
NumberofJobs
7 Months
83 Months
37 Months
104 Months
19 Months
66 Months
32 Months
Recessions: September 1981 - April 1982; March 1989 – April 1992; December 2000 – July 2002; January 2008 – September 2010
Expansions: April 1982 - March 1989; April1992 - December 2000; July 2002 – January 2008; September 2010 – December 2015
63 Months
Source: New Jersey Department of Labor. Note: ( ) indicates employment loss.

8. New Jersey’s Economic Roller Coaster
(Total employment change for periods indicated)
(24,800)
622,400
(260,100)
577,300
(58,200)
127,000
(259,000)
211,900
-400,000
-200,000
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
1981-1982 1982-1989 1989-1992 1992-2000 2000-2002 2002-2008 2008-2010 2010-present
NumberofJobs
7 Months
83 Months
37 Months
104 Months
19 Months
66 Months
32 Months
Recessions: September 1981 - April 1982; March 1989 – April 1992; December 2000 – July 2002; January 2008 – September 2010
Expansions: April 1982 - March 1989; April1992 - December 2000; July 2002 – January 2008; September 2010 – December 2015
63 Months
Source: New Jersey Department of Labor. Note: ( ) indicates employment loss.

9. New Jersey has a long history of adapting to a changing
economic climate. From its colonial origins to the present day,
New Jersey's economy has continuously and successfully
confronted the challenges and uncertainties of technological
and demographic change, placing the state at the forefront of
each national and global economic era. Based on James W.
Hughes and Joseph J. Seneca’s nearly three-decade-long
Rutgers Regional Report series, New Jersey’s Postsuburban
Economy presents the issues confronting the state and brings
to the forefront ideas for meeting these challenges.
Suffice it to say,
“A view of New Jersey’s past, present and future economy
by two of the state’s most respected scholars. Should be a
must-read for anybody hoping to shape future economic policy.”
—Governor Thomas H. Kean, Governor of New Jersey, 1982-1990
"If you are interested in New Jersey's economy, its history, its recent and
present condition, and knowledgeable projections as to where it's going,
Jim Hughes and Joe Seneca should be your go-to guys. Their clear and
easy-to-read writing style makes economics almost enjoyable."
—James J. Florio, governor of New Jersey, 1990-1994
Link to the Rutgers University Press website
bit.ly/nj-postsuburban

10. The Great Era of
Suburbanization Past

12. A Postsuburban Population
Geography

13. FIGURE 2
Counties with Population Decline, 2010-2014

15. FIGURE 2
Counties with Population Decline, 2010-2014

16. A Postsuburban Economic
Geography

17. Reversal of Economic Fortune

18. New Jersey and New York City Employment
1950-2004
1,656.8
3,999.1
3,468.2 3,550.0
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
1950 2004
Thousands
NJ
NYC
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Ratio NJ/NYC: 0.48 1.13

19. New Jersey and New York City:
Employment Change
1950-2004
New Jersey +2,342,300
New York City +81,800

20. New Jersey and New York City:
Employment Change
1950-2004
New Jersey +2,342,300
New York City +81,800
2004-2014
New Jersey -36,900
New York City +552,200

21. New Jersey and New York City Employment
1950-2014
1,656.8
3,999.1 3,962.2
3,468.2 3,550.0
4,102.2
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
1950 2004 2014
Thousands
NJ
NYC
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statisitcs.
Ratio NJ/NYC: 0.48 1.13 0.97

22. A Shrinking Outer Suburban
Office Footprint

23. The Great 1980s Office Building Boom

24. The Official New Jersey State Bird

25. 1980’s Official State Bird

26. Suburban Office Agglomeration

28. Merck – White House Station

29. Merck

32. Lessons for the Garden State
from the Nutmeg State

33. Aetna – Middletown, Connecticut

37. DECONSTRUCTION
A New
Suburban Office
Normal?

38. • Maturing Baby Boom – Redefining
Maturity/Exiting the Workforce
• GEN Y/Millennials/Echo-Boomers –
Redefining the Workforce/Workplace
The Greatest Age Structure
Transformation in History

39. Inter-Generational Tensions in the Workplace

40. The Largest Generation in U.S. History

41. Resizing in the Housing Market

42. BABY BOOM: REINVENTING MATURITYa
The 2016 Calamity
by Boom Reinventing Maturity
• First Boomers are turning 70 years of age
• All Boomers will be between 52 and 70 years of age
• More than one-half of all Boomers will be in their
60s

45. We will not fade away quietly!
Source: Christian Science Monitor

46. Echo Boomers: 1977-1995oom:
Millennials: 1980-2000

47. Generation “Y” Today:
We Want 24-7 LWP Environments

48. The Digerati

49. • Joshua Bright for The New York Times

59. Home of the Edward J. Bloustein School