Presentation on reinvestment in New Jersey infrastructure.

1. NJUA PRESENTATION
Demographic Change in New Jersey
Brendan Livingston
Economist, Rowan University

2. OVERVIEW
DEMOGRAPHICS
• Births – Deaths + Net Immigration
• United States
• 1990: 248 million
• 2000: 281 million (13% growth)
• 2010: 308 million (10% growth)
• New Jersey
• 1990: 7.73 million
• 2000: 8.41 million (9% growth)
• 2010: 8.79 million (5% growth)

3. NORTHEAST
OTHER STATES
• Pennsylvania
• 1990: 11.9 million
• 2000: 12.3 million (3% growth)
• 2010: 12.7 million (3% growth)
• New York
• 1990: 17.9 million
• 2000: 19.0 million (6% growth)
• 2010: 19.4 million (2% growth)
• Delaware
• 1990: 0.7 million
• 2000: 0.8 million (14% growth)
• 2010: 0.9 million (13% growth)

4. FAMILYCHANGES
BIRTHS & DEATHS
• Births in New Jersey for 2008 from the American
Community Survey: 131,141
• Deaths in New Jersey for 2008 from National Center
for Health Statistics: 70,026
• In the next 5 years, this disparity will most likely
contract as births decrease during the recovery.
• In 20 years when the Baby Boomer generation is
around 85 or older this number is likely to compress
further.

5. CDCVITALSTATISTICS
BIRTHS & DEATHS
WWII
Ends Baby Boom

6. WHERETOLIVE?
WHAT ABOUT POPULATION WITHIN NJ?
• Even with state population growth not all counties
are gaining population.
• We are able to work in New Jersey but live in
another state.
• Are other states attracting New Jersey workers to
live their state?

7. NEWJERSEY
PERCENT CHANGE IN POPULATION 2002-2012
Source: Census Bureau (http://censtats.census.gov/)

8. WHERETOLIVE?
PERCENT CHANGE
• The percent change map shows that many border
counties are growing slowly compared to border
counties in other states.
• However, percent changes can be deceiving so let us
look at an absolute change in population map as
well.

9. NEWJERSEY
ABSOLUTE CHANGE IN POPULATION 2002-2012
Source: Census Bureau (http://censtats.census.gov/)

10. NEWJERSEYECONOMY
NET MIGRATION
• People mostly move for jobs or retirement.
• More jobs usually means more population.
• How did the recent recession hit New Jersey?

11. NEWJERSEYECONOMY
NUMBER OF JOBS LOST SINCE 2002
Sector Number of Jobs Lost
Manufacturing 112,568
Finance & Insurance 53,197
Construction 42,288
Administration/Support 33,610
Information 32,064
Management of Companies 27,238

12. NEWJERSEYRECESSION
PERCENT CHANGE IN NUMBER OF JOBS FROM 2001 TO 2011
Source: Census Bureau (http://censtats.census.gov/)

13. HOUSEHUNTING
POPULATION AND CONSTRUCTION
• Demographic changes are not as impactful on
Manufacturing and Finance.
• Population growth equals an increase in demand for
housing.

14. ECONOMYSIMPLIFIED
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
HousingPermitsIssuedinThousands
Year
Number of Housing Permits Issued for
Single Family Units by Year (1995-2012)
Delaware
New Jersey
New York
Pennsylvania
Source: Census Bureau (http://censtats.census.gov/)

15. HOUSEHUNTING
THE ECONOMY AND HOUSING
• Imagine if over 50% of your customers disappeared
within 4 years.
• New Jersey consistently had over 20,000 single
family residential permits issued every year between
1995 and 2005.
• Between 2005 and 2009 the number drops to 7,211
permits issued.

16. NEWJERSEYHOUSINGMARKET
PERCENT CHANGE IN SINGLE FAMILY RESIDENTIAL PERMITS 2002-2012
Source: Census Bureau (http://censtats.census.gov/)

17. NOTAGREATSIGN
PERCENT CHANGE IN SINGLE FAMILY RESIDENTIAL PERMITS 2010-2011
Source: Census Bureau (http://censtats.census.gov/)

18. AHOPEFULSIGN
PERCENT CHANGE IN SINGLE FAMILY RESIDENTIAL PERMITS 2011-2012
Source: Census Bureau (http://censtats.census.gov/)

19. HOUSEHUNTING
LOOKING INTO THE FUTURE
• For the next five years slow population growth will
most likely reduce the need for new houses reducing
extensive demand for utilities.
• Over the next 20 years unless the economy of New
Jersey picks up relative to the rest of the United
States, housing and population are most likely going
to be growing at a rate of 3%.