1. nuances GERMAN FEDERAL ELECTION SPECIAL
N°12 – SEPTEMBER 2013
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THE RESULTS
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MERKEL MAINTAINS POWER.
–
THE RESULTS OF THE GERMAN FEDERAL ELECTION:
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Angela Merkel’s CDU party have once again won a majority
of the votes (41.7%) in Germany’s national election, which
took place today Sunday 22 September 2013. This
represents an increase of 7.9 points. Early reports
suggested an absolute majority for the Chancellor however
this now seems unlikely with the CDU party missing out by
about 4 parliamentary seats. The next biggest party, the
SPD, will enter parliament with 25.6% of the vote.
However Merkel’s current coalition partner, the FDP, will
not be returning to parliament having failed to secure the
minimum 5%. Both the Left Party (Post Communist) and
the Greens will remain in parliament, with 8.4% and 8.5%
respectively. Turnout nationwide was 73%.
A QUICK ANALYSIS:
TRANSPORT POLICY
The CSU, Merkel’s CDU sister party in Bavaria, has received
more than 50% of the vote in Bavaria, which counts for
over 7.4% nationwide. This will give the Bavarian faction a
very strong position in Berlin. Tonight on a television panel
discussion it was made clear by Gerda Hasselfeldt, leader
of the CSU in parliament, that road pricing for cars on the
German autobahn was on the agenda. Merkel, who has
consistently refused to entertain this argument, insisted
that road pricing would not be a clashing point and that a
solution would be found.
EUROPE
The Dutch newspaper, de Volkskrant deplores that only
the Germans can vote. This Dutch perspective implies that
the election victory of Angela Merkel is also highly
Federal Election Results
CDU - 41,8%
SPD - 25,6%
Die Grünen - 8,5%
Die Linke - 8,4%
Topics / Themen:
THE RESULTS 1
Merkel maintains power /
Merkel scheitert knapp an absoluter Mehrheit
Results from Hessen / Wahlkrimi auch in Hessen
BACKGROUND INFORMATION 3
Introduction
Party Colours
Energiewende
German Election System
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 6
New Hires and Goodbyes / Interna
Angela Merkel, CDU
Foto: CDU/Dominik Butzmann
Peer Steinbrück, SPD
Foto: SPD/Susie Knoll
2. nuances GERMAN FEDERAL ELECTION SPECIAL
N°12 – SEPTEMBER 2013
significant on the European level. The next important
election is the one for the European Parliament, which will
take place on 25 May 2014. Regarding the European
Union, Angela Merkel indicates that she wants to have
both: more integration on the EU-level on the one hand,
on the other hand giving more power back to the member
states.
ENERGY
So far there are no comments on energy efficiency policy.
MERKEL SCHEITERT KNAPP AN ABSOLUTER MEHRHEIT.
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ERGEBNISSE DER BUNDESTAGSWAHL 2013:
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In der gestrigen Bundestagswahl konnte Angela Merkel’s
CDU wieder die Mehrheit der Stimmen (41,7%) für sich
gewinnen. Dies bedeutet einen Anstieg von 7,9% im
Vergleich zur Wahl 2009. Erste Hochrechnungen sahen
zunächst die absolute Mehrheit bei der CDU/CSU, doch
dies scheint mittlerweile unwahrscheinlich, da den
Schwesterparteien dafür 4 Sitze im Bundestag fehlen.
Zweitstärkste Kraft ist die SPD mit 25,6% der Stimmen. Die
FDP, bisheriger Koalitionspartner der CDU/CSU scheidet
aus dem Bundestag aus. Sowohl die Grünen als auch die
Linke ziehen mit, 8,5% bzw. 8,4% sicher ins Parlament ein.
Die Wahlbeteiligung lag mit 73% höher als 2009.
TRANSPORT POLITIK
Im Vorfeld der Wahlen hatte sich CSU-Chef Horst Seehofer
für eine PKW-Maut für Ausländer auf deutschen Straßen
stark gemacht, diese Idee wurde zunächst von Merkel
(CDU) abgelehnt. Nach der Verkündung der ersten
Hochrechnungen waren sich die Schwesterparteien
allerdings einig, dass eine gemeinsame Lösung für die
PKW-Maut gefunden werden wird unter Berücksichtigung
des Europarechts, sagten Angela Merkel, CDU, und Gerda
Hasselfeldt, Fraktionschefin der CSU im Bundestag in der
Elefantenrunde am Wahlabend. Einig sind sich alle
Parteien, dass das marode Straßen- und Autobahn-Netz in
Deutschland ein Investitionsprogramm benötigt. Die SPD
sowie die Grünen wollen zudem die Ausweitung der LKW-
Maut für kleinere LKWs auf 3,5 Tonnen.
EUROPA
Die niederländische Zeitung, de Volkskrant bedauert, dass
nur die Deutschen zu dieser Wahl antreten konnten. Diese
Sicht impliziert, dass dem Wahlsieg von Merkel im
gesamten Europa eine hohe Bedeutung zugemessen wird.
Die nächste wichtige Wahl ist die des Europäischen
Parlaments, die am 25. Mai 2014 entschieden wird.
Bezüglich der europäischen Zusammenarbeit deutete
Merkel an, dass sie sowohl mehr EU-Integration, aber in
anderen Bereichen wieder mehr Entscheidungskraft für die
Mitgliedsstaaten wünsche.
ENERGIE EFFIZIENZ
Zur Energie Effizienz Politik liegen keine Kommentare vor.
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RESULTS FROM HESSEN.
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UNCLEAR RESULTS ALSO IN HESSEN.
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The regional elections in Hessen also took place on
Sunday. Here also the CDU maintained a majority with
38.8 % of the vote. Volker Bouffier, head of the party in
the region increased his vote this time around however
will feel home alone having lost his coalition partner FDP.
.
Hessen Election Results
CDU - 38,8
SPD - 30,8
Die Grünen 10,9%
Die Linke - 5,2%
3. nuances GERMAN FEDERAL ELECTION SPECIAL
N°12 – SEPTEMBER 2013
WAHLKRIMI AUCH IN HESSEN.
Ministerpräsident Volker Bouffier gewann mit der CDU
38,8% der Stimmen, was die Partei zur stärksten Kraft in
Hessen macht. Die SPD kommt auf 30,8% der Stimmen und
auch die Grünen schneiden mit 10.9% besser als auf
Bundesebene ab. Die Linke wäre mit 5,2% wieder knapp im
Landesparlament vertreten. Der Wiedereinzug der FDP ist
vermutlich gescheitert. Die letzten Hochrechnungen sahen
die FDP bei 4,8%. Somit gibt es bei der Landtagswahl
wieder die bekannten „hessischen Verhältnisse“, die sich
durch eine deutliche Unübersichtlichkeit auszeichnen.
Zukünftige Koalitionsbildungen sind - wie so häufig in
Hessen - relativ unklar.
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BACKGROUND INFO
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INTRODUCTION.
This article gives background analysis about the German
political system. The Bundesrat, (the Upper House of the
Parliament) is represented by 16 member states (federal
states of Germany) and has a strong say in many policy
areas such as energy and taxation. The Federal
government have faced opposition from the Bundesrat
quite often in the past because the majority of the
Bundestag, (the Lower House of the Parliament) is
different to the majority of the Bundesrat even if they both
have a majority of one party. There is always opposition
because a lot of issues deal with budgets.
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PARTY COLOURS.
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A QUICK INTRODUCTION TO THE GERMAN PARTY
SPECTRUM.
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The insignia of each party is the party colour, far easier to
associate with the abbreviated full political party names.
The abbreviation rather the acronym does not
correspondingly spell out the full party name i.e. SPD
ought to be SDP for Social Democrats but for the German-
English conversion, letters are transposed. These strong
tints are:
black – CDU/CSU, chaired by Angela Merkel and
chancellor candidate
red – SPD, chaired by Sigmar Gabriel; Peer
Steinbrück, top candidate
yellow – FDP, chaired by Philipp Rösler; Rainer
Brüderle, top candidate
green – Die Grünen, co-chaired by Claudia Roth
and Cem Özdemir; Jürgen Trittin and Katrin
Göring-Eckardt, top candidates
dark red – Die Linke, (post-communists), co-
chaired by Katja Kipping and Bernd Riexinger;
candidate team: Gregor Gysi, Sahra Wagenknecht
and six others.
The black is the Chancellor’s Party CDU/CSU (Christian
Democratic Union of Germany/Christian Social Union.) CSU
is the sister party of the CDU in Bavaria, a southern state of
Germany which is bordered by Austria and Czech Republic
to the East. The Chancellor has already done two terms of
office (8 years) might serve longer than Margaret Thatcher,
depending on the outcome of the election negotiations.
She is seen by most of the Germans as a safe pair of hands,
weathering the Greeks’ storm and the risks of
globalisation. She embodies the famous saying of the
Chancellor, Konrad Adenauer in one of the slogans: no
Thorsten Schäfer-Gümbel, SPD
Foto: SPD Büro T.S-G. 2008
Volker Bouffier, CDU
Foto: volker-bouffier.de
4. nuances GERMAN FEDERAL ELECTION SPECIAL
N°12 – SEPTEMBER 2013
experiments. If you take the basic appeal of a party leader
as one of the determinants of election results, then Angela
Merkel’s quiet assertiveness might have just been the
ticket for re-election. But people’s opinions do shift subject
to prevailing wind of rhetoric, so she may not rest on her
laurels yet.
Angela Merkel’s opponent to the candidacy as Federal
Chancellor was Peer Steinbrück of the SPD, who is viewed
by the public as an able politician and experienced
economist. As the former Minister of Finance during the
black-red (CDU/CSU and SPD) coalition, Steinbrück is
regarded as an old hand. The SPD is the oldest party in the
Bundestag, celebrating its 150th birthday this year. They
have a strong hold on thirteen federal states out of the
sixteen. Likewise, they outnumber other parties in the
Bundesrat, the Upper House of the Parliament. Steinbrück
promised, once he gets into office, to address the lack of
parity on women’s representation in employment and
remuneration. He is upfront on the government’s savings
in time of crisis as the paradox of thrift. He also wants to
address the issue of what he sees as Germany having the
biggest low pay sector by introducing standard minimum
wage. Overall, he has big plans for improving the welfare
sector: housing, pensions, hospitals and childcare centres.
Ensuring greater social justice, the slogan: “Das Wir
entscheidet” means let the populace decide.
High income earners are rather opposed to Steinbrück due
to his assertion to burden them with higher taxes. One
thing which is a relief to taxpayers is that any future rescue
fund to be built up will not rely on their purse instead
Steinbrück plans to ask big European banks for help. His
plans appeal only to 25.6% of the electorate.
The FDP, represented by its top
candidate Rainer Brüderle did not
make it into parliament. The party
stands for market liberalism and tax
reductions. In 2009 the FDP gained
15 per cent of the votes, which led to
a black-yellow coalition with the
CDU. However, in this centre-right
government the FDP failed to implement its key objectives
like decreasing taxes and strengthening the free market.
During the election campaign, the FDP kept on pursuing its
strong liberalism by rejecting national minimum wage and
refusing legal thresholds concerning energy efficiency and
renewable energy. With such programme and due to lack
of vigour during the past legislative period, the FDP was
not able to convince the electorate.
In contrast to the FDP, the Greens, with its top candidates
Jürgen Trittin and Katrin Göring-Eckardt, can be positioned
on the centre-left of the political party spectrum. Their
party programme is based on eco-friendly as well as equal
opportunity policies and they are considered as the
German pioneers for green energy. During the red (SPD)-
green coalition (1998 to 2005) with Trittin serving as
Federal Minister for Energy, National Conservation and
Nuclear Safety, the Greens were already promoting to get
rid of nuclear energy. This main ideological goal of the
Greens has been adopted by Angela Merkel and the CDU
when Fukushima disaster struck. Initially, the Chancellor
was going to renew the licences (subject to tests) of
nuclear power plants but eventually reversed this and
introduced the so-called energy transition (see below for
more detailed information).
The Greens’ election campaign continued to be based on
the promotion of wind and solar energy as alternatives to
fossil fuels. They have high expectations of the current
election due to their electoral success in the federal state
Katrin Göring-Eckardt and Jürgen Trittin, Die Grünen
Foto: Bündnis 90/Die Grünen
Rainer Brüderle, FDP
Foto: FDP
5. nuances GERMAN FEDERAL ELECTION SPECIAL
N°12 – SEPTEMBER 2013
Gregor Gysi
Foto: Die Linke.
Bundestagsfraktion
of Baden-Württemberg in 2011 when they pushed the
CDU off the throne after 58 years of reign. However, this
victory could not be repeated on the federal level by
achieving only 8.5% of the votes.
As an advocate of democratic
socialism and a proponent for
higher minimum wage, the
dark red - Die Linke’s (post-
communist) candidate Gregor
Gysi is a lawyer by profession.
People talked about him as
being an eloquent speaker. As
expected, die Linke gained
8.4% in the polls but will not
be part of any coalition as they
are seen by all other parties as
an unbearable partner.
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ENERGIEWENDE.
ONE BIG CHALLENGE - AND OPPORTUNITY AT THE SAME
TIME - GERMAN POLITICS HAS TO FACE: THE
ENERGIEWENDE.
–
Energiewende means energy transition. It is the move
towards the development of generating energy from
renewable sources in an efficient and sustainable manner
with the end goal of abolishing non-renewable sources.
Surprisingly, it was the CDU which initiated this transition
provoked by the Fukushima disaster. The CDU/CSU-FDP
government looked at this as a lesson to be learnt and
started to pursue less risky, more environmentally friendly
and cleaner energy policies.
This was the main focus of the black (CDU/CSU) campaign
for this general election reneging on all energy policies and
nuclear power commitments they originally stood for. The
traditional core voters of the CDU/CSU perceived this
complete u-turn as disconcerting, so with companies
providing energy especially the nuclear power energy
sector felt the same and were shocked as they were
promised a lease of life for a little bit longer.
This new direction is seen as the way forward, the better if
not the only alternative to dependency from non-
renewable sources obtained from fossil fuels: oil, coal,
natural gas and nuclear fuel (uranium) which are bound to
run out. It is not only a matter of depleting resources but
the real issue is how they are handling the green-house gas
emission that affects climatic change. There is also the
issue of reducing our current use and consumption of
energy from these fossil fuels.
As mentioned earlier on, the idea of a German energy
transition has its roots originally in the Green party.
Thirteen years ago, the German Renewable Energy Act –
EEG (Erneuerbare-Energien Gesetz) came into force under
the red-green coalition. The EEG core is reducing cost and
improved efficiency in producing energy. By now all
political parties in fact are in agreement on EEG. As always
in any high technological innovations, it has its inherent
problem, the initial cost is high but it may prove in-
expensive in the long run.
Not only is the Energiewende cost-intensive, there are also
hiccups in producing energy from renewable sources. The
intermittent supply of wind to power the turbines and
cloud cover on the solar panels make it volatile. This
volatility has given the industry plenty of scope to think
about. They now have to work on capacity market issues,
ensuring guaranteed supply of electricity at peak times.
Already, disadvantages of this volatility have been felt in
Germany. This has caused an increased demand for coal
energy to efficiently fill in the gaps. Eventually, this led to a
rise of CO2-emissions which is actually intended to be
reduced. The capacity market will bring in incentives to
have sufficient reliable capacity on both sides of supply
and demand of the economic theory. The industry itself
especially the technology sector is one of the biggest
consumers of energy. To achieve a sustainable green
economy, environmental protection, industry and politics
have to go hand in hand and a vivid exchange is necessary.
6. nuances GERMAN FEDERAL ELECTION SPECIAL
N°12 – SEPTEMBER 2013
The Energiewende would definitely put Germany into the
forefront of change in energy policies and would set the
trend towards green economy across the European Union.
However, EU competition commissioner Joaquin Almunia
is at the moment challenging the whole construction of the
Renewable Energy Law including the energy efficiency
legislation of Germany.
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HOW DOES THE ELECTION WORK?
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THE GERMAN FEDERAL ELECTION SYSTEM IN A NUTSHELL:
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The election process in governing is not as straightforward
as it seems. The voting system is called mixed-member
proportional representation (MMP). This has evolved from
its historical background during the Weimar Republic of
direct proportional representation, when having many
parties without a majority proved difficult to govern.
Any eligible voter (from 18 onwards) casts two ballots. The
first is for the constituency candidate (FPTP= first-past-the
post) and the second is for a party’s regional list. A voter
can vote for their local MP without taking into account
his/her party affiliation hence the composition of different
colours (political parties) in the legislative body which
matters in the second ballot. Statistically there are 598
seats to be filled in the Bundestag. A party would need a
minimum of 300 seats to win a majority. If a party wins
more votes via the second ballot then there will be the so
called overhang seats. Overhang seats happen when a
party wins more constituency seats than it would be
entitled from its proportion of (party list) votes. Such seats
are compensated by creating additional seats to ensure
the correct composition of the parliament according to
second ballot votes.
For minor parties, they have to strive to get the 5-per-cent
threshold to have any representation in the Bundestag. As
stipulated by the Electoral Law, the five per cent of the
total party votes is required or no one is elected from
party list although a candidate who has won a
constituency wins his/her seat. The other way round, is if a
party wins at least 3 constituency seats. This applied to Die
Linke (in the last Bundestag).
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
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NEW HIRES AND GOODBYE.
–
KEVIN JASCHIK AND ISABEL HOFFMANN JOINING NUANCES
PUBLIC AFFAIRS. SIR STEPHEN SHERBOURNE LEAVING FOR
THE HOUSE OF LORDS.
–
nuances public affairs welcomes new hires Kevin Jaschik
and Isabel Hoffmann. Jaschik worked inter alia for
McKinsey & Company in network-based industries and
studied Business Economics as well as International Politics
in Göttingen, Berlin, Amsterdam and London. At nuances
public affairs he is responsible for clients concerning
energy and energy efficiency.
Isabel Hoffmann was a research assistant for the Project
“Mediterranean Institute Berlin” at the Humboldt-
University focussing on energy security. In 2012 she
finished her studies in Contemporary European Studies
and Communication Science with stays in Munich, Dublin,
Bath, Prague and Berlin. For nuances public affairs she will
consult clients from the field of energy and energy
efficiency.
Our long-standing senior adviser, Sir Stephen Sherbourne,
has been appointed by David Cameron as a member of the
House of Lords, the upper house of the British Parliament.
He has taken the title of Lord Sherbourne of Didsbury.
Isabel HoffmannKevin Jaschik
7. nuances GERMAN FEDERAL ELECTION SPECIAL
N°12 – SEPTEMBER 2013
INTERNA
–
KEVIN JASCHIK UND ISABEL HOFFMANN VERSTÄRKEN
NUANCES PUBLIC AFFAIRS. SIR STEPHEN SHERBOURNE
VERLÄSST DIE AGENTUR FÜR DAS HOUSE OF LORDS
–
nuances public affairs freut sich über die Neuzugänge
Kevin Jaschik sowie Isabel Hoffmann. Jaschik, der unter
anderem fünf Jahre für McKinsey & Company in
netzwerkbasierten Industrien tätig war, studierte
Betriebswirtschaftslehre und Internationale Politik in
Göttingen, Berlin, Amsterdam und London. Bei nuances
public affairs ist er für die Betreuung von Kunden aus den
Bereichen Energie und Energieeffizienz verantwortlich.
Isabel Hoffmann war zuvor als Forschungsassistentin beim
Projekt „Mittelmeer Institut Berlin“ der Humboldt-
Universität mit dem Fokus Energiesicherheit beschäftigt.
Sie schloss 2012 ihr Studium in Contemporary European
Studies sowie Kommunikationswissenschaft ab und
studierte in Bath, Prag, Berlin, München und Dublin. Auch
sie wird sich vorwiegend Kunden aus dem Energie-
/Effizienz-Bereich annehmen.
Unser langjähriger Senior Berater Sir Stephen Sherbourne,
wurde vom britischen Premierminister David Cameron
zum Mitglied im House of Lords, dem Oberhaus des
Britischen Parlaments, berufen. Er trägt nun den Titel Lord
Sherbourne of Didsbury.
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