Nuricumbo + Partners is specialized on subjects such as financial due diligence for M&A, special audits, independent process assessments, debt/equity solutions, on-demand financial talent, anti-corruption initiatives, enterprise risk management, and corporate governance. We have become trusted business advisors for companies of all sizes, providing direct support to CEOs and CFOs in special or confidential projects.
2. GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE
Issues Optimistic Neutral Pesimistic
2020 Economic Fall -4.0% -4.4% -5.0%
2021 Economic Growth 6.0% 5.6% 4.7%
Total Vaccinations
(Estimated 2021)
3,400 Million 2,800 Million 2,200 Million
% of population vaccinated
(Estimated 2021)
44% 36% 30%
Reinfections
New COVID variants do not
generate massive reinfections.
There are some reinfections with
new variants but they are not
massive.
New COVID variants prove to be
highly infectious. Available
vaccines are not effective.
Oil Price (2021) $50 $60 $80
USA - China
Despite the natural conflicts
between an emerging power and
a hegemonic power, cooperation
prevails.
"New Cold War" develops but
with different levels and
nuances.
Conflict leads to important
military clashes in the South
China Sea and fast escalation of
cyberwar.
20%
Estimated
Scenario 1
Optimistic 65%
Estimated
Scenario 2
Neutral 15%
Estimated
Scenario 3
Pesimistic
3. LATIN AMERICA PERSPECTIVE
Issues Optimistic Neutral Pesimistic
2020 Economic Fall -6.5% -7.7% -9.0%
2021 Economic Growth 5.2% 4.9% 3.0%
Unemployment 9.5% 10.6% 12.5%
PIB per Capita
(USD per annum)
10,000 9,000 7,000
Inequality
(Gini)
0.45 0.47 0.51
Herd Immunity Late 2022 Mid 2023 Late 2024
15%
Estimated
Scenario 1
Optimistic 60%
Estimated
Scenario 2
Neutral 25%
Estimated
Scenario 3
Pesimistic
4. NORTH AMERICA PERSPECTIVE
Issues Optimistic Neutral Pesimistic
2020 Economic Fall
Mexico: -7.5%
USA: -4.0%
Canada: -6.5%
Mexico: -8.5%
USA: -4.3%
Canada: -7.1%
Mexico: -10.0%
USA: -5.0%
Canada: -7.5%
2021 Economic Growth
México: 6.7%
Estados Unidos: 6.5%
Canadá: 6.4%
México: 5.0%
Estados Unidos: 5.5%
Canadá: 6.0%
México: 3.0%
Estados Unidos: 3.5%
Canadá: 3.1%
Time to Herd Immunity
México: 400 days
Estados Unidos: 80 days
Canadá: 200 days
México: 520 days
Estados Unidos: 100 days
Canadá: 250 days
México: 700 days
Estados Unidos: 120 days
Canadá: 350 days
USMCA
Alignment reached in policies,
interests and visions between
the three trading partners.
There are controversies. Some
investments are canceled but
many others go ahead.
Labor, environmental and
regulatory disputes prove
disruptive for most
investments.
Cooperation
The three governments agree on
a pragmatic agenda that seeks
to create regional prosperity.
Little progress at the regional
level. USA too busy with
domestic priorities.
Elections in Mexico and Canada
produce totally divergent views.
Canada and the USA align and
forget Mexico.
Energy Policy
Mexico’s mid-term elections
produce a more diverse political
balance that stops major policy
changes.
Mexico rectifies some of the
recent policy changes and
prevents major disputes,
although confidence is badly
damaged.
Mexico’s recent changes in
energy policies results in major
legal disputes under USMCA
rules.
20%
Estimated
Scenario 1
Optimistic 50%
Estimated
Scenario 2
Neutral 30%
Estimated
Scenario 3
Pesimistic
5. MEXICO PERSPECTIVE
Issues Optimistic Neutral Pesimistic
2020 Economic Fall -7.5% -8.5% -11.0%
2021 Economic Growth 6.7% 5.0% 3.0%
Interest Rate 3.25% 4.0% 5.0%
Inflation 2.8% 3.8% 4.2%
Exchange Rate
(USD/MXN)
19.0 22.0 25.0
Mid-Term Elections
Peaceful and plural elections.
Diverse Congress. More power
sharing. Institutional order
prevails.
Clean elections. Morena with no
clear majority in congress. Other
political parties win some states.
Controversial elections.
Presidential intervention.
Consolidation of Party of State.
Power concentration produces
a more radical agenda.
Pemex
Pemex without crisis. Sovereign
credit rating remains stable.
Pemex without crisis but
financial bomb keeps ticking.
Sovereign credit rating
deteriorates slightly.
Pemex becomes a major issue
and there is significant impact
on sovereign credit rating.
15%
Estimated
Scenario 1
Optimistic 50%
Estimated
Scenario 2
Neutral 35%
Estimated
Scenario 3
Pesimistic
6. $5.46 $5.60 $5.63
$0.00
$2.50
$5.00
$7.50
January February March
Brazil
Exchange Rates
$3,569.07 $3,620.72 $3,731.91
$0.00
$1,500.00
$3,000.00
$4,500.00
January February March
Colombia
$20.58 $20.86 $20.44
$0.00
$10.00
$20.00
$30.00
January February March
Mexico
$3.63 $3.65 $3.76
$0.00
$1.50
$3.00
$4.50
January February March
Peru
Source: Exchange Rates UK, 2021.
*USD / PEN
*USD / MXN
*USD / CLP
*USD / BRL
*USD / COP
$734.81 $723.89 $720.54
$0.00
$300.00
$600.00
$900.00
January February March
Chile
*USD / CLP
$87.30 $89.85 $91.98
$0.00
$30.00
$60.00
$90.00
$120.00
January February March
Argentina
*USD / ARS
7. Source: Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Chile, Mexico and Peru Central Banks, 2021.
36.10% 38.50% 40.70%
0.00%
15.00%
30.00%
45.00%
December January February
Argentina
Inflation Rate
4.52% 4.56%
5.20%
0.00%
1.50%
3.00%
4.50%
6.00%
November December January
Brazil
2.68% 2.40% 2.60%
0.00%
0.90%
1.80%
2.70%
3.60%
January February March
Peru
1.61% 1.60% 1.56%
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
December January February
Colombia
3.00% 3.10% 2.80%
0.00%
1.50%
3.00%
4.50%
December January February
Chile
3.15% 3.54% 3.76%
0.00%
1.50%
3.00%
4.50%
December January February
Mexico
8. $39,473 $39,718 $39,520
$0
$15,000
$30,000
$45,000
$60,000
January February March
Argentina
International Reserves
$356,004 $355,620 $355,416
$0
$120,000
$240,000
$360,000
$480,000
December January February
Brazil
$59,031 $59,001 $58,975
$0
$18,000
$36,000
$54,000
$72,000
December January February
Colombia
$38,999 $39,562 $40,723
$0
$13,000
$26,000
$39,000
$52,000
January February March
Chile
$195,946 $195,270 $194,934
$0
$60,000
$120,000
$180,000
$240,000
January February March
Mexico
$76,474 $76,029 $80,930
$0
$25,000
$50,000
$75,000
$100,000
January February March
Peru
*Million U.S. Dollars
*Million U.S. Dollars
*Million U.S. Dollars
*Million U.S. Dollars
*Million U.S. Dollars
*Million U.S. Dollars
Source: Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Chile, Mexico and Peru Central Banks, 2021.
9. 48,257.14 48,432.27 47,982.39
0
16,000
32,000
48,000
64,000
January February March
Argentina
Capital Markets
115,067.54 110,035.17 116,633.72
0
35,000
70,000
105,000
140,000
January February March
Brazil
1,348.12 1,359.48 1,316.81
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
January February March
Colombia
42,985.73 44,592.91 47,246.26
0
12,000
24,000
36,000
48,000
January February March
Mexico
4,288.65 4,573.37 4,898.09
0
1,500
3,000
4,500
6,000
January February March
Chile
*IPSA:IND
*MEXBOL:IND
*SPBLPGPT:IND
*MERVAL:IND
*IBOV:IND
*COLCAP:IND
Source: Trading Economics, Yahoo Finance, 2021.
21,110.22 22,530.22 21,372.03
0
7,000
14,000
21,000
28,000
January February March
Peru
*SPBLPGPT:IND
10. Foreign Direct Investmet
$11,517 $11,873
$6,663.00
$0
$4,000
$8,000
$12,000
2017 2018 2019
Argentina
$68,885
$78,162
$69,174
$0
$30,000
$60,000
$90,000
2017 2018 2019
Brazil
$13,836
$11,535
$14,314
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
2017 2018 2019
Colombia
$6,128 $7,323
$11,928
$0
$4,000
$8,000
$12,000
2017 2018 2019
Chile
$33,030 $37,682
$29,354
$0
$12,000
$24,000
$36,000
$48,000
2017 2018 2019
Mexico
$6,860 $6,488
$8,892
$0
$3,000
$6,000
$9,000
$12,000
2017 2018 2019
Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2021. *BoP, Million U.S. Dollars at Current Prices
11. Credit Ratings
Argentina
CCC
(March 9, 2021)
Source: Fitch Ratings, 2021.
Brazil
BB-
With NEGATIVE Outlook
(November 18, 2020)
Colombia
BBB-
With NEGATIVE Outlook
(November 6, 2020)
Chile
A-
With STABLE Outlook
(March 24, 2021)
Mexico
BBB-
With STABLE Outlook
(November 11, 2020)
Peru
BBB+
With NEGATIVE Outlook
(December 15, 2020)
12. Credit Ratings
Argentina
Ca
With STABLE Outlook
(September 28, 2020)
Source: Moody’s Investors Service, 2021.
Brazil
Ba2
With STABLE Outlook
(May 15, 2020)
Colombia
Baa2
With NEGATIVE Outlook
(December 3, 2020)
Chile
A1
With NEGATIVE Outlook
(August 25, 2020)
Mexico
Baa1
With NEGATIVE Outlook
(April 17, 2020)
Peru
A3
With STABLE Outlook
(June 25, 2019)
13. Credit Ratings
Argentina
CCC+
With STABLE Outlook
(September 7, 2020)
Source: Standard & Poor’s, 2021.
Brazil
BB-
With STABLE Outlook
(December 10, 2020)
Colombia
BBB-
With NEGATIVE Outlook
(October 28, 2020)
Chile
A
With STABLE Outlook
(March 24, 2021)
Mexico
BBB
With NEGATIVE Outlook
(December 3, 2020)
Peru
BBB+
With STABLE Outlook
(November 23, 2020)
14. Country Presidents
Argentina
President: Alberto Fernandez
Birth: April 2, 1959
In Office Since: December 10, 2019
Political Party: Frente de Todos
Brazil
President: Jair Bolsonaro
Birth: March 21, 1955
In Office Since: January 1, 2019
Political Party: PSL
Colombia
President: Ivan Duque Marquez
Birth: August 1, 1976
In Office Since: August 7, 2018
Political Party: Centro Democratico
Chile
President: Sebastian Piñera E.
Birth: December 1, 1949
In Office Since: March 11, 2018
Political Party: Independent
Mexico
President: Andres Manuel Lopez O.
Birth: November 13, 1953
In Office Since: December 1, 2018
Political Party: Morena
Peru
President: Francisco Sagasti
Birth: October 10, 1944
In Office Since: November 17, 2020
Political Party: Partido Morado
15. Chile will delay midterm elections due to
new spike of Coronavirus cases
16. Mexico June midterm elections will be a
referendum on President Lopez Obrador
24. COMPANY
PROFIT
Our Firm at a glance
Key Facts Industries
• 50+ CONSULTANTS
• MULTIDISCIPLINARY
• BIG 4 BACKGROUND
• INTERNATIONAL
EXPOSURE
• ACTIVE ACROSS MEXICO
• ABLE TO TRAVEL
• FLEXIBILITY
• BILINGUAL / BICULTURAL
Professional
Organizations
Our Service
Portfolio
• MANUFACTURING
• FINANCIAL SERVICES
• PROFESSIONAL SERVICES
• TRADING
• RETAIL
• ADVERTISING
• EDUCATION
• PRIVATE EQUITY
• FAMILY BUSINESS
• MEXICAN INSTITUTE OF
PUBLIC ACCOUNTANTS
• MEXICO CITY ACCOUNTANCY
BOARD
• MEXICAN INSTITUTE OF
FINANCIAL EXECUTIVES
• ILLINOIS ACCOUNTANCY
BOARD
• AMERICAN CHAMBER OF
COMMERCE
• EXTERNAL AUDIT
• INTERNAL AUDIT
• PART TIME CFO’S
• INTERIM
MANAGEMENT
• FORENSIC
• TAX
• TRANSFORMATIONS
• ADVISORY BOARD
For more information: www.nuricumbo.com
BANAMEX FONATUR Y&R ZIMAT NOKIA CIT PFIZER METLIFE
LESAFFRE
PWC DELOITTE IPG BOMBARDIER BANORTE +GF+ MERLIN
KANDEO SGS
1985 1990 2000 2003 2010 2013 2014 2017 2020
Professional Careers
History
Experience as Independent Consultant Experience as Consulting Group
25. WE SUPPORT SENIOR MANAGEMENT IN THE
RESOLUTION OF SPECIAL OR CONFIDENTIAL
PROJECTS.
Ideal to tackle those projects that are crucial
but sometimes difficult to deliver internally.
Teams of highly experienced consultants.
Our consultants have on average 20/25
years of professional experience.
Reduced learning curve / More productivity.
High degree of flexibility.
Solid specialization in Finance, Audit, Tax and
Accounting.
Big Four / Big Consulting background.
Who are we?
26. Internal and External Audit.
Special reviews (financial, process,
operational, compliance, forensic, etc.)
Financial Due Diligence for M&A.
Tax Compliance.
Comisarios. Board Members. Advisory Board.
Interim C-Level Executives (CEOs, CFOs, etc.)
Interim Project Teams.
Specialized Training Programs.
Debt/Equity Solutions.
Fintech Trusts (Fideicomisos).
How do we help some of our clients?
27. WHAT WE THINK
Book Review: Freakonomics
The Biden Adminstration and Mexico Trade
The Strategy in Times of Covid
2021: Year of Healing and Recovery
Winning an election does not resolve our problems
The reinvention of big global cities
Will we avoid another lost decade?
Wirecard, external audit and the public interest
OUR YOUTUBE CHANNEL
Book Review: Why Nations Fail
¿Cómo regular el outsourcing?
How to choose the right partner?
La Voz del CFO: Importancia de la tecnología
La Voz del CFO: Rompiendo paradigmas
Oportunidades Financieras para Exportadores
Vestiga Consultores: Información y pandemia
Historic Lessons of the 1918 Pandemic
Oscar Becerril: Cómo superar COVID-19
OTHER
Riesgo Global: Relación Estados Unidos - China
Ranking Empresas Zombies Mexico: Q2 2020
Mexico’s Top 25 CFO’s of 2017
¿Por qué medir la confianza económica?
Nuricumbo + Partners in the Media
29. Land Area
Source: The World Bank, 2018.
2,736,690
8,358,140
1,109,500
743,532
1,943,950
1,280,000
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
9,000,000
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Note: Kilometers
30. Ease of Doing Business Index
126 124
67
59 60
76
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2019.
Note: 1 = Most Business-friendly Regulations
35. Exports of Goods and Services
17.4%
14.3%
15.8%
28.2%
38.8%
24.2%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2019.
Note: Percentage of GDP
37. Gross Domestic Product
$445,445.2
$1,839,758.0
$323,615.9 $282,318.2
$1,268,870.5
$226,848.1
$0
$300,000
$600,000
$900,000
$1,200,000
$1,500,000
$1,800,000
$2,100,000
$2,400,000
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2019.
Note: Millions, Current US$
38. GDP Per Capita
$23,040.3
$15,300.0 $16,012.4
$27,002.3
$20,994.0
$13,416.4
$0.0
$5,000.0
$10,000.0
$15,000.0
$20,000.0
$25,000.0
$30,000.0
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2019.
Note: (i) PPP; (ii) Current International $
44. Government Expenditure on Education
5.5%
6.3%
4.5%
5.4%
4.5%
3.8%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2017 - 2019.
Note: Percentage of GDP
45. Labor Force
Source: The World Bank, 2020.
19,180.3
99,843.0
24,802.3
8,859.8
53,978.6
16,182.3
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Note: Thousands
46. Labor Force (Female)
43.3% 43.9% 42.7% 42.4%
38.5%
45.8%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2019.
Note: Percentage of Total Labor Force
48. Energy Use
Source: The World Bank, 2014 - 2015.
2,030
1,496
724
2,006
1,537
790
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Note: Kg of Oil Equivalent per Capita
50. Population Living in Slums
14.7%
16.3%
27.8%
8.8%
16.0%
33.1%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2018.
Note: Percentage of Urban Population
52. Bank Capital to Assets Ratio
13.5%
10.2%
17.0%
7.5%
11.0%
12.9%
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
15%
18%
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2019.
Note: Percentage
53. Bank Nonperforming Loans
to Total Gross Loans
5.7%
3.1%
4.2%
2.1% 2.1%
3.4%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2019.
Note: Percentage
54. Deposit Interest Rate
47.3%
5.4% 4.5%
2.5% 3.5% 3.7%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2019.
Note: Percentage
56. Listed Domestic Companies
Source: The World Bank, 2019.
91
324
66
203
139
196
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Note: Total
57. Market Capitalization of Listed Domestic
Companies
$39,393.54
$1,187,361.69
$132,040.28
$203,791.65
$413,618.82
$98,964.96
$0.0
$200,000.0
$400,000.0
$600,000.0
$800,000.0
$1,000,000.0
$1,200,000.0
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2019.
Note: (i) Millions; (ii) Current US$
58. Strength of Legal Rights Index
Source: The World Bank, 2019.
2 2
11
4
10
7
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Note: 0 = Weak to 12 = Strong
60. We care about your business priorities.
Let’s talk!
E-mail: contacto@nuricumbo.com
Mobile/Whatsapp: + 52 (155) 5453 6309
Skype: nuricua
Twitter: @a_nuricumbo
Office: Montes Urales 424
Lomas de Chapultepec, CDMX
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