Slides from Lecture L04 Adjacent Possible In Reykjavík University course New Technology 2014 Technology evolves by exchange of ideas. With speciality began prosperity. After one idea comes another idea, by combining ideas into new ideas. In this lecture we look at the fundamental reason for technological progress and it is similar to that of how species evolve in nature. At any given time, with all the knowledge we have, new knowledge can emerge. We call this the adjacent possible. It explains why new inventions are invented when they are, and why they are not possible before their time.

1. Lecture L04
ADJACENT POSSIBLE

2. Exponential World
Global and Exponential
Local and linear

3. The S-curve
Improvements in performance
varies throughout the life of the
technology

4. Moore’s Law
Number of transistors on
an integrated circuit will double "
in about 18-24 months

5. The Law of Accelerating Returns
Evolution applies positive feedback in that the more
capable methods resulting from one stage of
evolutionary progress are used to
create the next stage"
""
"As a result, the rate of progress of an evolutionary
process increases exponentially over time

6. Ideas build upon Ideas
Every generation of technology
becomes a source for new
innovations

7. Web of Technology
Products are made using different
parts using many technologies confection of ideas

8. Complexity of Technology
Global and Exponential
Local and linear

9. Gall’s Law
All complex systems that work evolved from
simpler system that worked

10. “I, Pencil” by Leonard E. Read

11. Toaster

12. Thomas Thwaits: The Toaster Project

13. "Left to his own devices he couldn’t build a toaster.
He could just about make a sandwich
and that was it."
Mostly Harmless, Douglas Adams, 1992

16. “And that was something that reoccurred
throughout the project, was, the smaller the
scale you want to work on, the further back
in time you have to go”
- Thomas Thwaites

17. The Law of Disappearing Technology
When some technique is
mastered, it will “disappear” as
something obvious and trivial, and
other more useful things that are
built on top of it

18. Layers of Technology
Technologies evolves layer by
layer, from simple to complex "
technologies

19. Adjacent Possible

20. Adjacent Possible
...a kind of shadow future, hovering
on the edges of the present state of
things, a map of all the ways in
which the present can reinvent itself
Steven Johnson

21. Ideas usually come at similar time
Who invented the telephone?

22. Enabling Technology
Existing technology that can be used
to build new technologies

23. Think about this!
Why was the computer
invented in the 1940s
and not in the 1840s?

24. Charles Babbage
worked on his
difference engine
and later
analytical engine
In 1822-1871

25. Vacuum tubes where used
to build computers
Image
source:
http://www.computersciencelab.com/ComputerHistory/HistoryPt4.htm

26. The Second Industrial Revolution
The period 1870-1914 shaw innovations in the chemical,
electric, petroleum and steel industries

27. Nikolai Kondratiev
Kondratiev waves are supposedly
cycle-like phenomena in the
modern world economy

28. Kontrativ Wave
Source:
Wikipedia,
Kondratiev
Wave

29. Kontrativ Wave
Wave
Years
1
First Industrial Revolution
1787–1842
2
Railroad and Steam Engine Era
1842–1897
3
Age of steel, electricity and internal combustion 1897–1939
4
War and Post-war Boom: Suburbia
1939–1982
5
Post Industrial Era: Information Technology
1982? – ??
Source:
Wikipedia,
Kondratiev
Wave

30. The Prevailing Technology Trap
Current
and
dominant
technology
will
highly
influence
and
restrict
new
innovations

31. Technology Cramming

32. Technology Cramming

33. Adjacent Possible
The inventor must use the
components that exist in
his environment
Steven
Johnson

34. Two Waves of Products Development
In the first wave the product
is restricted by the
prevailing technology, but in
the second, there is
something new

35. Adjacent Possible
The inventor must use the
components that exist in
his environment
Steven
Johnson

36. Next
L05 Innovation