L04 Evolution of Technology

Evolution of Technology

"The way to build a complex system that
works is to build it from very simple systems
that work.”
- Kevin Kelly

Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson

Innovation


Ideas build upon Ideas
Every generation of technology
becomes a source for new
innovations


Adjacent Possible
The untapped potential
of what could be...


The 10/10 Rule
10 years to build a new
platform, 10 years for it
to be adopted

Steven Johnson

The Liquid network
A good idea is a network.
Innovations happens with
collaboration

Steven Johnson

The Slow Hunch
A lot of ideas linger on,
sometimes for decades,
in the back of people’s
minds

Steven Johnson

Serendipity
The accident of finding
something useful or good
without looking for it

Steven Johnson

Evolution
How does technology
evolve over time?


Cycles

Theories of Innovation
The study of innovation
can be applied on
different things:

Industries Paradigms Technology Products


Nikolai Kondratiev


Kontrativ Wave
Technology innovations are in long
cycles, 40-60 years, each
representing the application of new
group of technologies, which
eventually will lead to another wave


Kontrativ Wave

Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson Source: Wikipedia, Kondratiev Wave

Kontrativ Wave
Wave Years
1 First Industrial Revolution 1787–1842
2 Railroad and Steam Engine Era 1842–1897
3 Age of steel, electricity and internal 1897–1939
combustion
4 War and Post-war Boom: Suburbia 1939–1982
5 Post Industrial Era: Information Technology 1982? – ??


Diffusion of Innovation
Innovation grows in three stages

1. Slow growth – The early phase of
exponential growth
2. Rapid growth – The late explosive phase of
exponential growth
3. A leveling off as the
particular paradigm matures


Technology S-Curve
Based on the notion of Technology Life Cycle
– Improvements in performance varies throughout the
life of the technology


Timeline
Each wave creates number of
new inventions


The Digital Revolution
First computers were built using
vacuum tubes

Today our cell phone is a
powerful computer


The Digital Revolution

Transistor, 1947 Intel 4004, 1971

Integrated circuit, 1959


Computers in 1964
IBM System/360

360/20 with 24K of memory


Moore’s Law
Number of transistors on
an integrated circuit will double
in about 18-24 months.


Technological growth
accelerates


The Fifth Paradigm


30 Years of Product Performance

1977 2007
Apple II $1,298 iMac 17-inch $1,199
4000 bytes memory 1GB memory
Motorola 6502 1MHz Intel 2.0GHz

iPad 2 as fast as Cray 2
supercomputer, fraction of the size

Cray 2 1985 Apple iPad 2 2011

Read more: http://www.electronista.com/articles/11/05/10/ipad.2.benches.as.fast.as.cray.2.from.1985/#ixzz1jdOS0Es4

Exponential
Growth
Slow growth in the beginning
than accelerates


Second half of the Chess board

Flickr picture by spwelton

The Legend of the
Ambalappuzha Paal Payasam

Explonential growth


Computers will be faster


Computers will be smaller


Computers will be cheaper


Computers will be everywhere


Things that once were impossible become
possible


From a 1946 Comic strip to CES 2009


63 years later


The Long Nose of Innovation

Bill Buxton’s
Long nose of
Innovation

Source:
http://www.businessweek.com/innovate/content/jan2008/id2008012_297369.ht
Copyright © 2012, m
Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson

Growth of
Technology
Evolutionary processes – both
biology and technology, tend to
accelerate


Ray Kurzweil on how technology will
transform us (from TED.com)


The Law of
Accelerating Returns
Evolution applies positive feedback in
that the more capable methods resulting
from one stage of evolutionary progress
are used to create the next stage.

As a result, the rate of progress of an
evolutionary process increases
exponentially over time.

“An analysis of the history of
technology shows that technological
change is exponential, contrary to the
common-sense „intuitive linear‟ view.
So we won't experience 100 years of
progress in the 21st century -- it will be
more like 20,000 years of progress
(at today's rate).”
- Ray Kurzweil


Technology S-Curve
Exponential trends can be composed of a
sequence of S-curves where each curve is faster


Technology S-Curve


Technology Life Cycle


Technology Life Cycle

In the early days In the later days
The innovators and technology The pragmatists and conservatives
enthusiasts drive the market dominate; they want solutions and
They demand technology convenience
Small percentage of the market The big market


Technology Adoption Life Cycle


Is this evolution of technology good?


Kranzberg’s
laws of
technology


1. Technology is neither good nor
bad; nor is it neutral
2. Invention is the mother of necessity
3. Technology comes in
packages, big and small


4. Although technology might be a prime
element in many public
issues, nontechnical factors take
precedence in technology-policy
decisions
5. All history is relevant, but the history of
technology is the most relevant
6. Technology is a very human activity -
and so is the history of technology.


What is the impact of technological
change?


Technology is one of
the major factors in
change


Opportunity Threat


Example: Digital Photography


Economist article: The last Kodak moment?
Kodak is at death’s door; Fujifilm, its old rival, is thriving. Why?


Think about this
Think of a technology that
has changed your life


Why did Western Union turn
down the telephone?


L04 Evolution of Technology

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