At any given moment it is easy to look back to see how technology has changed over time. At the same time it is difficult to see what transformations are taking place in current moment, and even more difficult to see where things are going. We will explore what technology is. For us it may be the latest tech stuff we see, something new. But what about everyday objects that we take for granted. Are those not technologies also? How does technology evolve and where did it come from? We look at some ideas on evolution of technology and how it is similar to biology in some ways. We will also look at the origin of the word technology. Finally we will define the term we will use in the course. Terms defined are technology, product performance, and innovation to name few.

1. NEW TECHNOLOGY 2018
Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson

2. Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson

3. NEW TECHNOLOGY 2018

4. NEW TECHNOLOGY
2018

6. LECTURE L01
INTRODUCTION

7. Agenda
State of technology — Why it is important to understand technology?
Course description

8. Reading
New Technology Chapter 1 Introduction
Course Description

9. Stephen Elop,
CEO Nokia 2011

11. In 2002 Nokia had 35% of
the worlds mobile market
In 2006 Nokia had 73.6% of the
worlds smartphone market

12. Falling from glory
Nokia stock price 2007-2011

13. 1871: Founded. Spends the next century making tyres, boots and
cables.
1987: Launches first phone. The Mobira Cityman weighs almost 1kg.
1992: Sells non-mobile divisions and launches first digital GSM
phone, the Nokia 1011.
2000: Stock market value hits 186bn euros. Now worth 11bn euros.
2003: Basic 1100 phone launched. Goes on to sell 250 million units
and become the world's most popular consumer electronic device.
2011: Abandons Symbian mobile phone operating software and
switches to the Windows platform instead.
Source: Reuters/Nokia
History of a survivor

14. What happened in 2007?

15. The iPhone

16. Shift in Power
Source: Google

17. Shift in Power

18. Early 2011, Elop said
in a memo they were
standing on a
burning platform

19. How did we get to this point? Why did we fall behind when the world
around us evolved?
This is what I have been trying to understand. I believe at least some
of it has been due to our attitude inside Nokia. We poured gasoline on
our own burning platform. I believe we have lacked accountability and
leadership to align and direct the company through these disruptive
times. We had a series of misses. We haven't been delivering
innovation fast enough. We're not collaborating internally.
Nokia, our platform is burning.
Elop’s Memo - excerpts
http://www.theguardian.com/technology/blog/2011/feb/09/nokia-burning-platform-memo-elop

20. The Mobile Industry
before 2007
Hardware
Limitations
Mobile OS
“Mobile” Internet
Walled garden
Predefined functionality
The Mobile Industry
after 2007
Software
Full functionality
Real OS
Internet
Open
App store
Shift in Power

21. The iPhone Effect

22. February 11th 2011, Nokia announced
a partnership with Microsoft

23. September 3rd 2013, Microsoft bought Nokia’s Devices
and service business for $7.2 billion

24. Is this new…?

25. Western Union 1878
7,500 offices
12.000 employees
200,000 miles of cable

26. https://thepoliticalcarnival.net/tag/western-union/

27. Alexander G. Bell, 1876

28. "This 'telephone' has too many
shortcomings to be seriously considered as
a means of communication. The device is
inherently of no value to us."
- Western Union internal memo, 1876.

29. AT&T became dominant in US
communications - split up in 1982

30. Actually this is not even rare…

31. Britannica 1990
Sales: $650 million

33. Taken from Mary Meeker’s State of the Internet

34. Printed books, sold in stores Online, access everywhere,
updated in real-time,
crowdsourced
THEN NOW

35. And again…

36. In January 2010, Blockbuster
operated 5,200 stores worldwide

37. By September 2010, Blockbuster
files for bankruptcy

39. TECHNOLOGY
IS ONE OF THE
MAJOR
FACTORS IN
CHANGE

40. Today 3.8 billion people connect to the Internet and in the next few years 3
billions will connect
There are more mobile devices connecting to the Internet than computers
Printed newspapers and magazines are going out of business, those who
survive will go online
Bookstores are closing as sales of books decline
CD/DVD sales dropped rapidly as online streaming increases
TV stations need to go on the internet or out of business
Social networks are shaping our lives in ways we never imagined
Amazon sells more digital books than printed books
Over 5 billion hours of video are watched each day on YouTube
Self-driving cars are taking to the roads
People are starting to lose jobs because of robots
Every day 1.4 billion people log on to Facebook
People are tracking the health and activity with sensors and gathering
statistics in the cloud

41. UNDERSTANDING
TECHNOLOGY TRENDS
AND THEIR IMPACT ON
PEOPLE,
BUSINESSES
AND SOCIETY

42. Living in the future - Identify
major trends today and project
what that means in the next 3-5
years

43. People say we will experience more
change due to technology in the next 2-3
decades than we have in 2-300 years

44. The Long View
Technical Revolutions span generations — 50 to 100 years
Source: Carlota Perez
1760 19801780 1800 1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960
Arkwright’s mill
in Cromford, 1771
Industrialiation
Water dams
Steam
Manchester-
Liverpool Rocket
line, 1829
Railways
Steam Engine
Carnegie Bessemer
steel, Pittsburg,
1875
Electricity
Steel
Ford’s model T,
Detroit, 1908
Oil Cars
Mass production
Motion Pictures
Phone
Photographs Radio
Intel örgjörvinn,
Santa Clara, 1971
Computers
PC
Automation
Transform societies

45. Industrial
Revolutions
Water and steam powered
factories
Second Industrial
Revolution
Electricity harnessed to
power factories, light up
houses, home appliances
Information
Revolution
Information technology
used to automate
processes

46. The Fourth Industrial Revolution

47. Fjórða iðnbyltingin
Artifical Intelligence, AI
Robotics
Internet of things, IoT
Autonomous vehicles
Drones, Unmanned Aerial Vehicles
3D printing
Nanotechnology
Biotechnology
Material Science
Energy storage
Augmented reality
Virtual reality
Blockchain
The Fourth Industrial Revolution

48. Fifth Technological Revolution
starts
Intel 1971
The Technology Trigger 1971

49. 1981
Personal Computer allowed small
companies and individuals to own
and program computers
Generative platform
Opened up a huge revolution -
created a new industry
Personal Computers

50. 1995
Opened up a new way for people to
communicate and exchange data
Generative platform,
permissionless innovation
Created new industries,
transformed businesses
Internet

51. 2007
Smartphone
The smartphone revolution takes off
with new possibilities
Powerful computer in your pocket
Access to 4 million apps
Constant access to the Internet

52. PDP-8
Computer from DEC,
March 1965
Cost 18.500 USD
Sold 50.000 computers
12 bit architecture
32K memory
0,5 MIPS
MIPS: millions instruction per second
Smartphone from Apple,
September 2015
Cost 649 USD
10 million phones sold in first
three days
64 bit architecture
128GB “capacity”
25.000 MIPS
iPhone 6

53. 50.000 times faster
And has camera , sensors, speakers, Wi-Fi, etc…

54. The Next Wave will be built previous waves
Mainframe
1947
Minicomputer
1965
PC
1981 1995
Internet Smartphone
2007

55. The number of transistors per square inch
on integrated circuits double every 18 to 24
months
Moore’s Law

56. Gradually, then suddenly
Exponential Growth
1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128, 256, 512, 1024, ...

57. 30 linear
steps
Down the street
30 exponential
steps
25 x

58. iPad 2 has the same power as Cray 2 super computer
Read more: http://www.electronista.com/articles/11/05/10/ipad.2.benches.as.fast.as.cray.2.from.1985/#ixzz1jdOS0Es4
Cray 2 1985 Apple iPad 2 2011
Exponential Growth

59. WE EMPHASISE
TECHNOLOGY
BUT IGNORE THE
SOCIAL AND CULTURAL
IMPACT

60. How will technology
change people’s behaviour?

62. “Software eats the world”

63. Intelligent Software

64. Real-time Software

65. Businesses are going though
Digital Transformation

66. THE TRANSFORMATION
DECADE
2010 2020
BUSINESS
MODELS OF THE
20TH CENTURY
BUSINESS
MODELS OF THE
21TH CENTURY

67. HIERARCHAL NETWORK
20th Century 21th Century

68. THE
DIGITAL DECADE
THE CONTENT
ESCAPES
THE FORM
INTERNET
DISRUPTION
BEGINS
1900 2000
From hierarchical structure to networks
From broadcasting to streaming - long tail
From Read-only culture to read-write culture
The Move to Networks
THE
TRANSFORMATION
DECADE
BUSINESS MODELS
CHANGE
SMARTPHONES
REAL TIME SOFTWARE
CLOUD AND AI
2010

69. 2010 2020
Defined Industry Boundaries
Single-purpose Products
Producers and Consumers
Buying Economy
Hierarchical Structure
Platforms, ecosystems
Connected Smart Products
User as producer, co-creation
Sharing economy
Network Structure
The Transformation Decade
Broadcasting Streaming
Gatekeepers Algorithms
2010 2020

70. MANY 2 MANY:
PEER INTERACTION
ESTABLISHED
BUSINESS MODELS
GET DISRUPTED
READ WRITE CULTURE
ONE 2 MANY:
BROADCASTING
BUSINESS
MODELS GET
ESTABLISHED
READ ONLY CULTURE
BEFORE NOW
CONTROLLED BY
GATEKEEPERS
CONTROLLED BY
CONSUMERS

71. Desktops, heavy laptops Lighter, smaller, portable
BEFORE NOW
THE WORLD IN YOUR POCKET

72. Keyboard, mouse Touch, sound, gesture
BEFORE NOW
CHANGE IN USER EXPERIENCE

73. OUR
DEVICES
ARE
GATEWAYS
TO
THE
CLOUD

74. FUNDAMENTAL
SHIFT
IN
PEOPLE’S
BEHAVIOUR

75. FUNDAMENTAL
CHANGE IN
CONSUMING
CONTENT
Picture by Flickr user Shaggyshoo

76. FUNDAMENTAL
CHANGE IN
PRODUCING
CONTENT
Picture by Flickr user Shaggyshoo

77. FUNDAMENTAL
CHANGE IN
CONNECTING PEOPLE

78. END
OF
CONTROL

79. The Smartphone

80. 2.3 billion people carry
smartphones
Source: ITU, a16z, Benedict Evans slides

82. People touch their smartphone
2.617 times per day

83. If you want to get customers to use software,
you cannot ignore mobile
Source: ITU, a16z, Benedict Evans slides
The Internet Bubble

84. Transformation from Hierarchical to Networks

85. The 20th century society
structure was hierarchical –
government, companies, any
form of communication
Coordination cost is high

86. The 21st century society becomes a
network – software connects
individuals
Coordination cost drops to zero

87. Any business that is built around
a hierarchy with high
coordination cost,
will be crushed
by a networked software solution
with low coordination cost

91. O2O - „Online 2 offline“
Digital world connects to the physical world
Platforms connect two groups - those offering
something and consumers
Hosts and guests, drivers and riders, products and
consumers…

92. The Gig Economy
People work for others though platforms — your
new boss is software
Platform takes care of billing and transactions,
ratings and recommendations
Uber, Airbnb, Upwork, Taskrabbit, Postmates,
Deliveroo…

93. Real-time Algorithms

94. Using computers used to be:
you sit down and use the
computer just as any tool

95. Today:
The
computer
tells you
what to do
In real time

96. Today:
The
computer
tells you
what to do
In real time

97. Rise of online ordering and delivery services

98. Everybody in a
company must use
smartphones — it is
the new boss
BOSS

99. Internet of Things

100. Thing
Smart thing
Processors
Sensors
Software
Connected
smart thing
Processors
Sensors
Software
Source: HBR
Farming
system
Planters
Tillers
Tractor
Harvesters
Ecosystem
Internet of Things

101. Smart farming

102. Delta airline baggage tags have
wireless transmitters —
automatic baggage system

103. Internet of Things where
sensors are used to send
data to the cloud to analyze
information
upplýsingar

104. Accelerometer
Gyroscope
Magnetometer
Barometer
Proximity
Light sensor
Touch screens
GPS
WiFi
Bluetooth
GSM/CDMA Cell
NFC - Near Field
Camera front
Camera back
Sensors

105. Jawbone UP fitness tracker

106. Philips HUE light system

107. iGrill thermometer

108. Sonos Sound System

109. Scanadu medical diagnosis

110. Artificial Intelligence

111. A patient is diagnosed with a rare disease –
doctors cannot find the problem
Tokyo University Hospital
It took an AI system 10 minutes…

112. Dr. Watson went
to medical school

114. Powerful Neural network algorithms
Cluster of thousands of fast GPU machines
Big data – lots of data

115. Naural networks is type of AI where
Deep Lerning is used
The networks are not programmed —they
are trained to learn

119. Bots are smart software components
Have specific tasks, for example
dispatching a driver, notify, process
receipts, handle bookkeeping, book
flights ….

120. Chatbot

122. Robotics

123. Amazon uses robots to stuff racks
– Robot Operators supervise them

124. Robotics in the 21st century
Robots that see, hear and sense
Robots that can communicate
Powerful machines with software
and internet connectivity

125. Amazon Fulfilment Center robots

126. Autonomous Cars

127. Industrial Autonomous Vehicles

128. Tesla cars have driven 2 billion km on Autopilot

129. Cars will become work or entertainment centers

130. Reinvention of cities

131. Airbus Concept

132. What does this mean?

133. Finance Health Retail
Transportation Education
?
Whatever…
The World is Chaning

134. All jobs will disappear and our existence is
meaningless…

135. WE MUST
UNDERSTAND
TECHNOLOGY AND IT’S
POTENTIAL TO BE
RELEVANT

136. NEW TECHNOLOGY
2018