Conversion World #croworld 2015 - 3 days online live webinar with 20+ great CRO speakers. Ton Wesseling presented the second keynote on day 1, monday April 20th 2015.
His step by step slides on the Online Dialogue Ease & Effect matrix (where to test), the FACT & ACT Growth model (applying data & psychology to know what to test) and the ROAR model - so you know when you should start what sort of testing. Oh, and many tips on how to optimize, of course: 173 slides.
1. C o n v e r s i o n W o r l d K e y n o t e , A p r i l 2 0 t h 2 0 1 5
To n W e s s e l i n g – C E O – Te s t i n g . A g e n c y
# C R O w o r l d - @ To n W
Growth by Online Experiments
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Growth by Online Experiments #CROworld
Online Optimizers
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Online Dialogue
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Testing.agency
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Conversion Conferences worldwide
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ConversionHotel.com
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The 1st Conversion World
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Conversion World speakers
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More experiments
“If you double the number of
experiments you do per year
you’re going to double your
inventiveness”
Jeff Bezos, CEO Amazon
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Like Amazon, Like Zalando
GermanEcommercemarket,thankyouAndréMorys
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Experiments per year
1000+
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Why not?
Compare to the past?
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Why can this lead to failures?
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Why can this lead to failures?
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A big weekly change!
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A big weekly change!
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A big weekly change!
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A big weekly change!
26 out of 44 weeks: over 5% change!
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Methods used to improve conversion
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Methods companies plan to use
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It’s just
HOT
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Lack of resources
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Test more
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Test more
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Importance of a structured approach
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A structured approach
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FA C T & A C T
&
Tell
Conclude
Analyze
Test
Create
Analyze
Find
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The negative effect trend
Time span!
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The negative effect trend
Time span!
Moneyspendon!
Optimizationworldwide!
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The negative effect trend
Time span!
Moneyspendon!
Optimizationworldwide!
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The negative effect trend
Time span!
Averageeffectofoptimzation!
atcompaniesapplyingoptimization!
Moneyspendon!
Optimizationworldwide!
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The negative effect trend
Time span!
Averageeffectofoptimzation!
atcompaniesapplyingoptimization!
Moneyspendon!
Optimizationworldwide!
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It’s not a solution
It’s a method
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A/B-testing is a method
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It’s a way of working
It’s DNA
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So it’s a method:
When
How
What
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Growth curve – how it was teached
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Optimization phases - ROAR
Time span!
Conversionspermonth!
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Optimization phases - ROAR
Time span!
Conversionspermonth!
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Optimization phases - ROAR
Time span!
Conversionspermonth!
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Optimization phases - ROAR
Time span!
Conversionspermonth!
Risk!
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Optimization phases - ROAR
Time span!
Conversionspermonth!
Risk! + Optimization!
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Optimization phases - ROAR
Time span!
Conversionspermonth!
Risk! + Optimization! + Automation!
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Optimization phases - ROAR
Time span!
Conversionspermonth!
Risk! + Optimization! + Automation! Re-think!
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Optimization phases - ROAR
Time span!
Conversionspermonth!
Risk! + Optimization! + Automation! Re-think!
1.000 conversions!
per month!
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Optimization phases - ROAR
Time span!
Conversionspermonth!
Risk! + Optimization! + Automation! Re-think!
10.000 conversions
per month!
1.000 conversions!
per month!
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Phase 1: bridge the gap – Risk
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Fake adwords testing
Do they
click
on your idea?
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Fake facebook testing
Do they
like
your idea?
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Fake landing page testing
Do they
subscribe
to your idea?
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Phase 1: bridge the gap – Risk
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Get out of the office
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Risk
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ROAR - Optimization
Time span!
Conversionspermonth!
Risk! + Optimization! + Automation! Re-think!
1.000 conversions!
per month!
10.000 conversions
per month!
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Low number testing?
Why can it hurt you?
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Warning: low significance levels
ü Big chance the winner is not a real winner
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Warning: low power levels
ü Big chance a real winner is not recognized
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Example test set-up
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Example test set-up
ü 90% significance level
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Example test set-up
ü 90% significance level
ü 100 conversions per variation
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Example test set-up
ü 90% significance level
ü 100 conversions per variation
ü Average conversion rate: 2%
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Example test set-up
ü 90% significance level
ü 100 conversions per variation
ü Average conversion rate: 2%
ü 20 out of 100 ideas is a winner…
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Example test set-up
ü 90% significance level
ü 100 conversions per variation
ü Average conversion rate: 2%
ü 20 out of 100 ideas is a winner…
ü …with an average uplift of +- 10%
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Average: 75% significance & 40% power
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So:
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So:
ü 100 tests will give 10 false positives (90% significance)
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So:
ü 100 tests will give 10 false positives (90% significance)
ü 40% of the 20 winners are recognized(40% power)
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So:
ü 100 tests will give 10 false positives (90% significance)
ü 40% of the 20 winners are recognized(40% power)
ü 8 real winners & 10 false positives
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So:
ü 100 tests will give 10 false positives (90% significance)
ü 40% of the 20 winners are recognized(40% power)
ü 8 real winners & 10 false positives
ü NOT 18 improvements of 10%+
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So:
ü 100 tests will give 10 false positives (90% significance)
ü 40% of the 20 winners are recognized(40% power)
ü 8 real winners & 10 false positives
ü NOT 18 improvements of 10%+
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You need big numbers per variation
Time span!
Conversionspermonth!
Risk! + Optimization! + Automation! Re-think!
1.000 conversions!
per month!
10.000 conversions
per month!
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With 1000 conversions + a month
20+ tests a year
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Tests with impact, on average
1 out of 3
Simply truth: you’re just not always able to create a winner with enough impact!
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So in this case, you’ve impact
Every 6 weeks
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Slower? Energy will run out!
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What to test? Business cases!
Delivery –test with
in stock. 4 weeks
or 2 days?!
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What to test? Business cases!
Service charge, do
it or not? Include
in price or not?!
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What to test? Big design changes
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ROAR – Optimization – moving up
Time span!
Conversionspermonth!
Risk! + Optimization! + Automation! Re-think!
1.000 conversions!
per month!
10.000 conversions
per month!
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Finally you can test details…
Is Multi Variatie Testing (which is also A/B-testing but with more varations) a good idea? Almost never!!
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You should grow to
Customer Buying Reasons
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Reasons behind the customer journey
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Why is your user here?
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How can you
help your user’s brain
to fullfil it’s needs?
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Data & Psychology
Digital Data
Persuasion Psychology
Analyze
&
Experiment
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FA C T & A C T – i t e n d s w i t h Te l l
&
Tell
Conclude
Analyze
Test
Create
Analyze
Find
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Remember your lack of resources?
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Testing takes time
Use it to LEARN
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Create a test schedule
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A n d t h e n s t a r t : FA C T & A C T
&
Tell
Conclude
Analyze
Test
Create
Analyze
Find
Find
Your optimization team needs a good analyst / researcher!
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Test which dialogue has impact
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A/B-testing is the ultimate resource
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But first: map your user journeys
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Based on data
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Based on: asking
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Based on: listening
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Many sources out there to Find
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FA C T & A C T
&
Tell
Conclude
Analyze
Test
Create
Analyze
Find
Analyze
Really a good analyst / researcher!!
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Use your analytics data
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On page behaviour
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More details needed?
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Use event flow reporting
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Create heatmaps
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Create screen recordings
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To find out: The critical locations
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FA C T & A C T
&
Tell
Conclude
Analyze
Test
Create
Analyze
Find
Create
And yes, your team needs an economic / consumer Psychologyst and a UX designer!
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Source: Psychology
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Use that persuasion knowledge
Wheel-of-Persuasion.com
Resource & courses
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Bart Schutz: April 21 – 16:00 CEST
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Design your new dialogue!
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FA C T & A C T
&
Tell
Conclude
Analyze
Test
Create
Analyze
Find
Test
And your team needs a good front-end developer!
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But my A/B-test software has drag & drop?
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No, you need Front end development
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Development resources
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We measure in Analytics
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They do have analytics – but not enough
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Event tracking variation behavior
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Calculate results: ABTestGuide.com/calc
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So you can A/B-test with Tag Managers
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FA C T & A C T
&
Tell
Conclude
Analyze
Test
Create
Analyze
Find
Analyze
Your analyst will analyze the results!
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Not significant
ü It’s not a winner, stop
ü But, it’s does not mean it’s a losing one!
ü Average: 33% of your tests will have winners
If you are optimizing dialogues!
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Choose what to analyze up front
ü You just go and dig unitil you find something
(you will always find something that seems true BUT is not!)
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Don’t stop the test once it’s significant!
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Don’t stop the test once it’s significant!
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You just let it run until it’s significant
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You just let it run until it’s significant
Your test has a fixed lenght!
It’s even a fixed amount of test population, but we love to test business cycles and/or weeks!
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ABTestGuide.com/calc
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Your winners are spare?
Less than 25%?
Please higher your significance level to 95% or more if it drops below this 25 number!!
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Tip: Your test takes too long
ü Cookie deletion
(you will loose 10% in two weeks)
They will re-enter the the and pollute your samples!
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Tip: Don’t confuse cross device users
ü Only test 1 device at a time!
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Tip: You forgot to leave out s o m e visitors
ü Only test on those who can be changed
(if you test a sales promotion – leave out your current clients who just logon)
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Tip: You’re not slowing the control down
ü Add the same code to the control
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Tip: You’re not testing on fresh people
ü Start with control for a full purchase cycle
(and then start sending traffic to your variations – setting the control to 0%)
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Tip: You forgot to give them time to buy
ü Stop getting fresh visitors after your test time
(send new traffic to the control, but give you tested people time to finish converting)
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FA C T & A C T
&
Tell
Combine
Analyze
Test
Create
Analyze
Find
Tell
Conclude
Your psychologyst should conclude and your conversion lead should tell!
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Conclude
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Conclude
ü Do nothing?
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Conclude
ü Do nothing?
or
ü Re-test?
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Conclude
ü Do nothing?
or
ü Re-test?
or
ü Implement?
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Conclude
ü Do nothing?
or
ü Re-test?
or
ü Implement?
or
ü Scale?
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Conclude
ü Do nothing?
or
ü Re-test?
or
ü Implement?
or
ü Scale?
and
ü Continue or change test roadmap
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Optimize and redesign
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Knowledge library: ABtestguide.com
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Everyone should use your knowledge!
Data Insights Action
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ROAR – Optimization – moving up
Time span!
Conversionspermonth!
Risk! + Optimization! + Automation! Re-think!
1.000 conversions!
per month!
10.000 conversions
per month!
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Now you’re testing
On your way to
4 tests a week
Max capacity with 1 teammember on each discipline: analyst, ux, developer, psychologyst!
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ROAR – Automation
Time span!
Conversionspermonth!
Risk! + Optimization! + Automation! Re-think!
1.000 conversions!
per month!
10.000 conversions
per month!
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You’re already thinking of more teams
And still have test capacity
*test capacity – the number of tests you can start per week based on your audience & conversions!
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Algorithms
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You tested which locations are critical
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You know which dialogues are critical
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Automation
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Now you’ve moved to
Algorithm testing
Which internal and external influencers do have an impact on which segment of users?!
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+ Optimization! + Automation!
ROAR – Automation
Time span!
Conversionspermonth!
Risk! Re-think!
1.000 conversions!
per month!
10.000 conversions
per month!
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ROAR – You don’t stop optimizing
Time span!
Conversionspermonth!
Risk! + Optimization! + Automation! Re-think!
1.000 conversions!
per month!
10.000 conversions
per month!
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ROAR – Maybe you’ll never automate
Time span!
Conversionspermonth!
Risk! + Optimization! + Automation! Re-think!
1.000 conversions!
per month!
10.000 conversions
per month!
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ROAR – Re-think
Time span!
Conversionspermonth!
Risk! + Optimization! + Automation! Re-think!
1.000 conversions!
per month!
10.000 conversions
per month!
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A/B-testing is the ultimate resource
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Optimization is a way of working
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CRO brings so much user knowledge
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You will make big impact on Discover
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Customer knowledge center
Making money from conversion improvements
Creating more and more customer insights
Which can be monetized
on even a larger scale
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Now, that’s
HOT
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So you keep on groing
GermanEcommercemarket,thankyouAndréMorys
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Done testing? No!
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Done testing? No!
TESTING NEVER STOPS
Okay, end of life, cash cow, no need for any further growth accelaration or user knowledge!
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I f y o u u s e a m e t h o d o l o g y
&
Tell
Conclude
Analyze
Test
Create
Analyze
Find
Otherwise the company will not grow enough on your efforts!
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ROAR – when to start with what
Time span!
Conversionspermonth!
Risk! + Optimization! + Automation! Re-think!
1.000 conversions!
per month!
10.000 conversions
per month!
172. C o n v e r s i o n W o r l d K e y n o t e , A p r i l 2 0 t h 2 0 1 5
To n W e s s e l i n g – C E O – Te s t i n g . A g e n c y
# C R O w o r l d - @ To n W
Growth by Online Experiments