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Brexit
1.
BREXIT: is the Fate of the Financial Market & the Economy laying on 23 rd June,'16? Brexit is an abbreviation of "British exit" from European Union.It refers to the possibility that Britain will withdraw from the European Union. The country will hold an inout referendum on its EU membership on June 23. Backdrop: Britain might exit European Union largely because of Europe’s migration crisis and the interminable euro mess. The Utopia of globally minded Eurosceptics is a British economy set free from burdensome Brussels Regulation, retaining access to Europe’s single market, no longer paying into the EU budget, trading freely with the rest of the world and setting its own limits on immigration. The Parisbased OECD club of mostly rich countries says that Britain has the
leastregulated labour market and secondleastregulated product market in Europe. If Britain wishes to escape the EU’s rules, it will lose full access to the single market. The argument that, because Britain imports more from the EU than the other way round, it is in a strong bargaining position is unconvincing: the EU takes almost half of British exports, whereas Britain takes less than 10% of the EU’s. A freetrade deal in goods might be negotiable, but it would not cover services (including financial services), which make up a rising share of British exports.Next is the assertion that a postBrexit Britain could trade more with dynamic economies beyond Europe. Leave aside the fact that German exports to China are three times as big as Britain’s. The broader objection is that a Britain in search of freetrade deals with these giants would lose the
2.
negotiating clout of belonging to the world’s biggest single market. A prime example is the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership being negotiated by America and the EU.A postBrexit Britain would be excluded from TTIP.Then there is migration, today’s most emotive issue. Switzerland’s and Norway’s experience suggests that if postBrexit Britain wants full access to the European single market, it will have to accept the free movement of people from the EU. Leaving the EU would not stop refugees from crowding into Calais, but they would be harder to manage, because cooperating
with France would become more problematic. Liberal Eurosceptics favour more immigration and a more global Britain. But that is a pipedream. Consequences: The Britain's exit of European Union (EU) could not only slow down the world’s economy, according to analysts, but also have farreaching consequences for politics, economy, defense, migration and diplomacy IMPACT ON UK: •Regulatory divergence grows over time increasing the cost of trade, impacting on volumes and the UK place in supply chains •The UK is less attractive as a gateway to Europe, as a base for corporate HQs and as a location for investment from Europe •The UK loses influence over EU regulation without gaining much freedom to regulate independently •The UK gains flexibility over industrial policy, but loses the benefits from scale and influence in some areas •Immigration is tightened, IMPACT ON EUROPEAN UNION: •EU trade matters more for the UK than UK trade for the EU, but some states with big bilateral surpluses feel a macro chill from Brexit •Businesses find it costly to relocate investment from the UK and there is a risk the UK attempts to undercut the EU on standards to attract FDI •The balance in the European Council shifts away from liberalization
3.
and it becomes harder to form a blocking minority against illiberal measures •There could be a weakening of competition policy, looser collaboration in education and research and impacts on public procurement •The EU is a less attractive trade partner without the UK in the deal and loses a member state that puts its political weight behind negotiations Impact on India: As far as India is concerned, in the near term it will heighten global volatility thereby impacting capital flows and in medium term we will most likely
be impacted through currency exchange. India has a substantial trading corridor with EU. Any material depreciation of the Euro/Pound could lead to increased headaches for India in a sluggish export environment. Indian businesses have a material presence in both the UK & Europe. There are over 800 Indian companies in the UK, the top 1015 of which contribute $4 billion to the British economy. Indian companies see the UK as the springboard to Europe. The language and legal system give Indians a comfort level. Many Indian information technology companies based in the UK with large work forces and offer services to Europe will be hit too. Impact on Global Financial Market Global Financial Market remains volatile & range bound on the eve of the Referrendum. Exit of Britain from European Union may create a negative impact on the Stock market Globally. The degree of impact may be severe & long lasting. On the other hand, Decision to stay within Europe may be neutral to positive. It might not have long lasting impact as well. From Indian aspect, Indian Economic data is showing impressive improvement. Any neutral to positive cue from the International Market may be a trigger for Indian Market to perform Upside.
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