Over the last few years, we’ve heard a lot about share buybacks. In fact, share buybacks are at historically high levels. This pattern has been going on for a few years now, and many US companies, holding large amounts of cash are putting it to use by buying back their own shares. Optiontiger is the creator of proprietary Options trading strategies that give traders a 75% edge on every trade. Please visit these links for more information. 1) SwingtradeMAX for swing trades - 20% to 80% in a few days to few weeks - http://www.optiontiger.com/swingtrademax/ 2) DayTradeMAX - this is daytrading on steroids - http://www.optiontiger.com/daytrademax/ 3) CondorMAX to manage Iron condors - http://www.optiontiger.com/optionedge-trading-system/ 4) IncomeMAX spreads and straddles systems - Dredit and debit spreads and Straddles and Strangles - http://www.optiontiger.com/incomemax-strategies/ 5) EarningsMAX - Powerful playbook of Earnings trades. Take advantage of Volatility bump and the "Crush" http://www.optiontiger.com/earningsmax/ YOUTUBE CHANNEL ------------------------ To access over 400 Options education, trading, and stock market videos, please visit our YouTube Channel – https://www.youtube.com/user/OptionTiger

2. What do Share Buybacks tell us
Over the last few years, we’ve heard a lot about share buybacks. In fact, share buybacks
are at historically high levels. This pattern has been going on for a few years now, and
many US companies, holding large amounts of cash are putting it to use by buying back
their own shares.
But what exactly does this mean ? And how should retail investors interpret this
phenomenon ? There are several interpretations and it could mean one or more of the
following:
1) In general, companies would (should) prefer to deploy cash into additional revenue
generating avenues. This could be opening new factories, new products, invest in R&D, or
building new businesses. These activities, over the long run, will produce a higher r eturn
on capital than if the money was just being held as cash. By using this cash instead to buy
back its own shares, perhaps is a sign that these companies don’t feel confident of
building additional revenue streams, at least in the prevailing environmen t.
2) Share buybacks can also mean a company is having serious issues with growth,
specifically, growing the bottomline. As we all know, companies are valued in the public
markets based on several parameters, but the chief ones are earnings, and earning s
growth. The exact metric is EPS (Earnings per share). If a company has an EPS of
$3/share, and the next year, they produce an EPS of $5/share, this is great. It shows that
the company is growing nicely, right ? Well, this is the problem. Many companies use the
share buyback trick to mask poor earnings performance. When a company buys back
shares from the market, there are fewer shares in circulation. As a simple example, if
there were 100 shares in the public float before a buyback, and a company buys bac k 25
shares, then there are only 75 shares in circulation. The EPS calculation now is much
higher, and gives a false perception of growth or the health of the company.
3) Companies can be genuinely concerned about market conditions and/or their
own stock price. If they feel their stock is undervalued, for whatever reason, it may be a
good time to buy back some shares. And when the market eventually prices its shares
according to what it deems to be a fair valuation, the company can make good profits by
selling it back at that time. There is nothing wrong with this move. It’s just taking
advantage of temporary situations in the markets. The key indicator is to see how much
was the buyback relative to their other normal business investments for the year.
So how can a retail investor figure out which one is it ? Well, if you’re a “fundamental”
investor, you must be familiar with poring through financial statements. This is the basis
of your investment philosophy. There is plenty of information you can glean from
financial statements. For example,

3. - How was revenue growth and compare that to EPS growth ? If you see strange numbers
like revenue increased by 5% but earnings increased by 20%, that does not sound right.
You’ll need to look for reasons why this happened. There may be a genuine reason – like
a major cost cutting initiative that panned out very well. But whatever the reasons are,
it’s important to understand them.
- How does the amount of share buybacks compare to say, their usual investments into
new products or R&D. If a company normally (average last few years) invests $100M into
R&D, and this year they invested only $20M but were involved in a large share buyback,
that does not sound good.
Whatever the reasons are, retail investors should make sure it passes the “smell test”. A
quick review of the financial statement should clearly reveal the nature and amount of
buybacks, the reasons the company gives for these buybacks, and your own investigation
into the numbers should reveal the true picture. If it smells fishy, then it probably is…Not
every share buyback is to be interpreted as negative, although a majority are in some
respect or the other. Would welcome your thoughts below.
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