Here is brief look at the economic forecast for provinces in Canada. The focus is on government spending/taxation as well as GDP growth.

1. CANADA – PROVINCIAL –
FORECAST – 2017 AND 2018
BY: PAUL YOUNG CPA, CGA
MAY 2, 2017

2. PAUL YOUNG - BIO
• CPA, CGA
• Financial Solutions
• SME – Business Process Changes
• SME – Risk Management
• SME – Close, Consolidate and Reporting
• SME – Public Policy
• SME – Financial Solutions
• SME – Supply Chain Management
• Academia – Advance Accounting, Public
Finance and Advanced Management Systems
Contact information:
Paul_Young_CGA@Hotmail.com

3. AGENDA
• Budget Deficit/Debt
• GDP Forecast by Province
• Provincial Scorecard
• Manufacturing Sales

4. BUDGET DEFICIT/DEBT
• Source – BMO Economics – April 28, 2017
Canada’s provincial governments
will need a combination of new
revenue or spending cuts to get
back to a sustainable budget.
Healthcare systems need to be
prepared for the possibility of the
latter.
Healthcare
Questica – April 2017
Education
• Declining enrolment
• Salary/pensions cost
• Closing of schools
• Programs need to be
revamped for the jobs of
today and tomorrow

5. GDP FORECAST BY PROVINCE
• Source – BMO Economics – April 28, 2017

6. PROVINCIAL GRADE
Source – BMO Economics – April 28, 2017
• Ontario hydro rates and carbon tax are hurting business, so why does Ontario get “A-” for the economy
• Alberta deficit is now structural so why does it score “A+” net debt?
• Saskatchewan has done a very good job with attracting business investment, but scores “C-”
• Quebec has $2B+ surplus that can be attributed to both government transfers and a stronger economy
• Ontario net debt is a problem, so why does this not score a “D”

7. MANUFACTURING SALES
• Stats Canada
Analysis
• Automotive production is
forecasted to fall in 2017
• Softwood lumber is being
penalized with 5% to 20%
duties
• Oil Production has rebounded,
but there is an issue with
capacity
• Ring of Fire project appears to
have stalled
• Systemic issues facing the
housing market