This presentation will look at slow economic growth in Canada. The presentation will discuss liberal policies as well as macro and micro indicators when it comes to areas like wages, retail sales, trade, manufacturing sales, employment and housing prices. The presentation will also reflect 3rd part comment that relate to GDP, debt, housing prices, trade as well as other areas of the economy

1. Canada – Slow
Growth – Liberal
Party of Canada –
December 2016
By: Paul Young, CPA, CGA
Date: December 7, 2016

2. Presentation
• This presentation will look at slow economic growth in Canada. The
presentation will discuss liberal policies as well as macro and micro
indicators when it comes to areas like wages, retail sales, trade,
manufacturing sales, employment and housing prices.
• The presentation will also reflect 3rd part comment that relate to GDP, debt,
housing prices, trade as well as other areas of the economy

3. Agenda
• GDP Growth
• Employment
• Housing
• Retail Sales
• Manufacturing Sales
• Trade

4. GDP Growth / Canada – Liberal Party of Canada
Source: Stats Canada and Scotiabank
Source – ScotiaBank – Monthly Forecast
– November 2016
3Q16
2Q16 Source – ScotiaBank – Monthly Forecast
– September 2016
1Q16
Source – ScotiaBank – Monthly Forecast
– July 2016
http://www.oecd.org/economy/cana
da-economic-forecast-summary.htmNovember
28, 2016 Comments: A Dec. 5 slide show, obtained by CBC News,
projects weak annual growth of just 1.8 per cent on average
until 2029, and cites full-time job losses of 1.9 per cent across
Canada so far this calendar year.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/finance-liberals-economy-budget-morneau-
consultations-jobs-1.3883770

5. Employment/Wages
Minister of Finance – Bill Morneau
Comment: “Finance Minister Bill Morneau says Canadians should
get used to so-called “job churn” – short-term employment and a
number of career changes in a person’s life
Source - http://ipolitics.ca/2016/10/22/get-used-to-job-churn-
morneau-tells-liberal-meeting/
Source: Stats Canada
Liberal Election Promise
Comment: After ten years under Stephen Harper, good-
quality job opportunities for young Canadians are tougher
and tougher to find. Faced with high unemployment
and underemployment, many young people have stopped
looking for work altogether.
https://www.liberal.ca/realchange/opportunit
ies-for-young-canadians/
Job Quality
In a report released today, the national statistics
office says fewer young Canadians, who are not full-
time students, are working in full-time jobs today
than in 1976, a result driven mainly by the rise of
part-time work rather than increases in
unemployment rates or decreases in labour force
participation.
Source - http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/wages-
cibc-job-quality-1.3872389
Government of Canada cites full-time
job losses of 1.9 per cent across
Canada so far this calendar year.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/finance-liberals-economy-budget-
morneau-consultations-jobs-1.3883770

6. Wages
Source – Stats Canada
• Wages are under pressure in Manufacturing
• Retail/Wholesale wages have grown due to more
focus on distribution, i.e. eCommerce – Note –
Stats Canada decided last fall to combined retail
sales data with Wholesale.
Wholesale/Warehouse tend to pay more than
retail sales clerk
• Government wages may reflect arbitration
settlements.
• Key Quote “In response to widespread uncertainty
about Canada’s economic climate and business
conditions, organizations are planning cautious
salary increases for 2017. The Conference Board
of Canada’s Compensation Planning Outlook
2017 projects average base increases for non-
unionized employees to be 2.2 per cent next year,
with the lowest increases going to workers in
Alberta and in the oil and gas industry.Source -
http://www.conferenceboard.ca/press/newsrelea
se/16-10-
26/canadian_workers_in_for_another_year_of_m
odest_salary_gains_amid_slow_economic_growth
.aspx
Liberal Election Platform:
• Trade is vital for our economy. It opens markets, grows
Canadian businesses, and creates good-paying middle class
jobs – jobs that pay wages that are 50 percent higher than
industries that are not export intensive. That is good news for
the middle class and the communities they call home.
• Stephen Harper’s approach to trade, however, has failed. His
Conservative government has recorded the largest trade
deficit in Canadian history, and Canadians are paying the
price in lost job opportunities.
• Source:https://www.liberal.ca/files/2015/10/New-plan-for-
a-strong-middle-class.pdf

7. Housing Prices
Source – Scotiabank
Moodys:
According to the report, Canadian detached single family house prices are
expected to increase by nine per cent this year, and by 2.9 per cent annually over
the next five years. Meanwhile, condominium prices are forecast to grow by 4.6
per cent this year, and 2.2 per cent per annum over the next five years.
Moody's does caution that some metropolitan areas will see "modest" near-term
price declines. Prices in Edmonton are expected to trend slightly lower, despite
an expected rise in oil prices. Saskatchewan and Newfoundland housing markets
are in for "a rough two years," Moody's said, citing a combination of
overvaluation and slow projected economic growth.
• Source - http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/house-prices-moodys-
1.3810209
Government comment:
The slide show also notes that productivity is slowing, energy-sector
investment is in sharp decline, and household indebtedness is at record
levels.
Source - http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/finance-liberals-economy-budget-
morneau-consultations-jobs-1.3883770
OECD warns Canada at risk of ‘disorderly’ housing correction
• Canada is at risk of a “disorderly” correction in the housing market that could
threaten the country’s financial stability, the OECD warned on Monday in its latest
global economic outlook.
• The risk of a housing correction is most acute in the “over-valued” Vancouver and
Toronto markets, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development
said, citing the potential difficulty for some debt-ridden households to make
mortgage payments if interest rates or unemployment rise. Source -
http://www.bnn.ca/oecd-warns-canada-at-risk-of-disorderly-housing-correction-
1.618243

8. Retail Sales
Source – Stats Canada
• Retail sales have been
sluggish since February
2016
• The tax cuts and changes to
family tax benefit payments
have had little impact on
retail sales
• Family budgets are under
pressure due hydro rates,
carbon tax (BC) as well as
other taxes
Government comment:
The slide show also notes that productivity is slowing, energy-sector
investment is in sharp decline, and household indebtedness is at record
levels.
Source - http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/finance-liberals-economy-budget-
morneau-consultations-jobs-1.3883770

9. Manufacturing Sales
• Transportation sales are closed to 9B
for 2016)
• Forestry sales are led by a strong
domestic and international demand
for lumber (Housing starts)
• Oil is off close 10B in 2016
• Manufacturing sales is flat with 2015
Issues:
• Softwood dispute has not be resolved
• Slower retail sales led by lower
demand for autos
• Manufactures are under cost
pressure due to hydro costs,
regulatory burden and access to
market.
• Less investment in both innovation
and capital equipment
Source – Stats Canada
Government comment:
The slide show also notes that productivity is slowing, energy-sector
investment is in sharp decline, and household indebtedness is at record
levels.
Source - http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/finance-liberals-economy-budget-
morneau-consultations-jobs-1.3883770

10. Trade
MP – Ralph Goodale – Liberal Party of Canada
Comment: As a consequence, Canadians are
stuck with $158-billion in new Harper debt --
without much to show for it. There are 160,000
more jobless Canadians today than before Mr.
Harper took power. Job quality is at a 25-year low.
Household debt is near a record high.
Canada's trade deficit this year has topped $13-
billion. Business and consumer confidence are
down.
http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/ralph-goodale/mr-
harpers-economic-recor_b_8020980.html
Stats Canada
Stats Canada
Canada is on pace for $33B trade
imbalance for 2016.
http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-
quotidien/161206/dq161206a-
eng.htm

11. Summary
• Canada’s economy is still struggling with sluggish growth
• Employment has seen more part-time jobs than full-time created in 2016
• Housing prices continue to grow faster than wage growth, inflation and GDP
• More and more countries are imposing more protectionism policies. Exports are about $520B or about ¼ of GDP.
Canada depends on exports as part of driving the Canadian economy. Lower exports will impact the tax revenue collected
by the government
• Government has approved a major pipeline. There are more pipelines/projects waiting for approval. Delay in approving
projects could influence future FDI
• Infrastructure spending funding has been slowed.
• Liberal government has decided to impose carbon taxation on all provinces
• Imposing carbon taxation/price for carbon could have the following impact
• Lead to slower growth as it will increase costs of goods for consumer by about 6-9% or about $2,500 to family budget -
http://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/what-is-carbon-tax-or-a-price-for-carbon
• Make exports more expensive. Many Canada largest trading partners like the United States do not have carbon taxation/price for carbon.