A provocation on what needs to happen next in connected devices and technologies

1. It’s a Dirty New World
Branching out from the digital domain
Patrick Kalaher, Chief Architect
MARCH 2013
Thursday, March 21, 13

2. A provocation on what needs to happen
next in connected devices and
technologies
Thursday, March 21, 13

3. March 20, 2013Dirty New World
The Old Rules
Since the mid-90s, we’ve been
living in a clean, relatively simple
digital world
3
Thursday, March 21, 13

4. March 20, 2013Dirty New World
The Old Rules
I’m going to argue that this is all
abruptly changing
4
Thursday, March 21, 13

5. March 20, 2013Dirty New World
The Old Rules
And what got us here won’t get us
where we want to go now
5
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6. March 20, 2013Dirty New World
The Old Rules
Four laws we’ve been obeying:
Moore’s Law
Nielson’s Law
Metcalfe’s Law
Godwin’s Law
6
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7. March 20, 2013Dirty New World
The Old Rules
Moore’s Law
7
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8. March 20, 2013Dirty New World
The Old Rules
8
Foreshadowing
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9. March 20, 2013Dirty New World
The Old Rules
Nielsen’s Law
9
http://www.js1.ca/
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10. March 20, 2013Dirty New World
The Old Rules
Metcalfe’s Law
Value of a telecom network is
proportional to the square of the
number of connected users.
10
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11. March 20, 2013Dirty New World
The Old Rules
Metcalfe’s Law
We intuit this when
we think of
Network Effects
11
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12. March 20, 2013Dirty New World
The Old Rules
Godwin’s Law
"As an online
discussion grows
longer,
the probability of a
comparison
involving Nazis or
Hitler approaches 1."
12
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13. March 20, 2013Dirty New World
The Old Rules
Godwin’s Law
First we made net culture, then it
re-made us.
For Lulz.
13
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14. March 20, 2013Dirty New World
The Old Rules
The Onion Reports: 90% Of Waking Hours Spent Staring
At Glowing Rectangles
14
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15. March 19, 2013Dirty New World
The Old Rules
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16. March 19, 2013Dirty New World
The Old Rules
These laws are still out there, but
they aren’t the dominant factors,
because we are now headed to...
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17. March 20, 2013Dirty New World
The Old Rules
17
The Dirty New World
Thursday, March 21, 13

18. What is the Dirty New World?
Thursday, March 21, 13

19. A place with new rules and limitations and
ways to succeed
Thursday, March 21, 13

20. March 20, 2013Dirty New World
New Rules
It’s dirty out there
Device design is breaking long-held rules
Mobile networks are glitchy
The IoT (and the II) is messy and complicated, and failure can be expensive
Pervasive computing is starting to offend people
Connected device scenarios are hard work
Emergent behavior has real-world consequences
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Thursday, March 21, 13

21. March 20, 2013Dirty New World
New Rules
Mobile compute isn’t scarce anymore,
mobile energy efficiency is
Do you even know the processor speed
on your device? Do you even care?
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22. March 20, 2013Dirty New World
New Rules
22
“Koomey’s
Law”
Recent
research
led
by
Jonathan
Koomey
of
Stanford
University
has
found
that
energy
efficiency
of
compu<ng
doubles
every
18
months,
enabling
energy
constrained
devices
to
become
“smarter”.
How?
Con<nually
improving
baDery
technology
+
custom
ASICS,
Cores
and
SOCs
on
smartphones,
tablets
and
other
Internet
of
Things
devices,
along
with
“Strategic
Rulebreaking”
and
differen<ated
manufacturing
Impact
There
is
no
standard
“Smartphone”
or
tablet
architecture
Lots
of
Fragmenta<on
Commodity
doesn’t
cut
it
“Nimitz
class”
Manufacturing Ouroboros
Value
Chain Playing
catch
up
Thursday, March 21, 13

23. March 20, 2013Dirty New World
New Rules
Takeaway:
Engineering what’s inside the box is
more important than ever
23
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24. March 20, 2013Dirty New World
New Rules
We mostly have plenty of bandwidth,
but the reliability, availability, and
throughput of mobile and IoT systems
are still unsolved problems
24
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25. March 20, 2013Dirty New World
New Rules
Dropped calls are here to stay
25
(In 2008 = 5.6%
reported at least one
dropped call per day)
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26. March 20, 2013Dirty New World
New Rules
26
http://worstphoneever.com/
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27. March 20, 2013Dirty New World
New Rules
Takeaway:
Some solvable problems don’t get
solved
27
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28. March 20, 2013Dirty New World
New Rules
Case in point:
Home Energy Management
28
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29. March 20, 2013Dirty New World
New Rules
The Personal Area Network is not really
taking off
29
(Wifi
in
Healthcare:
$4.9B,
iTunes:
$17B)
Thursday, March 21, 13

30. March 20, 2013Dirty New World
New Rules
30
Sensors still too expensive
and scarce
The utilities’ hearts are really
not in it
The cost savings carrot is not
there for customers
There’s a limit to how much
this can cost
SHN ZBHT-1
Retails for 69.99
“Smart Grid Woes Move to Illinois, ComEd”
“All told, ComEd may have to pay back $48 million to its 3.8 million
customers (about $12 per customer), and the decision could cost
parent company Exelon about $77 million per year in revenue
losses, not to mention $85 million in its current rate increase
request.” -Reuters, Oct 2010
15% of 5% =
0.75%
$940
Thursday, March 21, 13

31. March 20, 2013Dirty New World
New Rules
31
“The number of
PhDs required to
install a WSN rounds
off to a non-zero
integer”
--Mary Murphy-
Hoye, Intel
Zigbee Smart
Energy 2.0 has been
in development
since before the
iPhone.
Thursday, March 21, 13

32. March 20, 2013Dirty New World
New Rules
Takeaway:
Home Energy Management is a great
object lesson for the Industrial Internet
32
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33. March 20, 2013Dirty New World
New Rules
Pervasive systems
33
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34. March 20, 2013Dirty New World
New Rules
Pervasive systems creep people out,
because they are... pervasive
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35. March 20, 2013Dirty New World
New Rules
Stopthecyborgs.com
“Spying is not a business model”
35
Not wearing
Google Glass
but still
pretty upset
about it
Thursday, March 21, 13

36. March 20, 2013Dirty New World
The New Rules
36
“Class,
please
Turn off
your pens”
Thursday, March 21, 13

37. March 20, 2013Dirty New World
New Rules
Takeaway:
Customer demand for Industrial
Internet and pervasive computing data
sharing is not the whole story
37
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38. March 20, 2013Dirty New World
New Rules
The most interesting connected device
scenarios require a lot of business
diligence and new skills
38
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39. March 20, 2013Dirty New World
New Rules
39
Connected device implementations can’t do
everything on day one
Big Data can only drive use
cases that a set of connected
devices are ready to handle
As systems grow and mature,
the data they create and
consume changes and
becomes richer
frog’s Connected Device Maturity Model
Source: frog
Unconnected
Legacy
Connected
Adapt
Connect
Maintain Understand Optimize Innovate
• Report
• Analyze
• Enterprise
Connect
• Cloud
Connect
• Aggregate
• Understand
Context
• Connect
• Identify
• Secure
• Meter
• Audit
• Inspect
• Diagnose
• Repair
• Upgrade
• Safe Share
• Longitudinal
Analysis
• Simulate
• Improve
Processes
• Closed Loop
Re-configure
• Dynamically
Adapt
• Predict
Capabilities
Time
Maturity / Complexity
Thursday, March 21, 13

40. March 20, 2013Dirty New World
New Rules
40
Big Data for connected devices doesn’t just
happen; it has to evolve
CONNECTED REACTIVE PREDICTIVE
Connecting disparate
technologies
Contextualizing awareness
through sensor networks
Predicting behavior and
leveraging awareness
Value
Number of Devices
Metcalfe?
Thursday, March 21, 13

41. March 20, 2013Dirty New World
The New Rules
Lots of things might not be worth it
41
Market'Sizing'
Combining'the'ATM,'digital'signage'and'POS'system'management'solu<on'markets'will'
only'sum'to'an'es<mated'half'a'billion'USD'in'2011'
ATM,'4.0'
POS,'321.9'
Digital'Signage,'
2.7'
US#Simple#Systems#Management#So1ware#
Market#in#2011#(USD#Millions)#
Upshot:'the'embedded'systems'management'tool'market'place'is'not'compelling'
in'and'of'itself.''It'needs'“revenue'drag”'or'“aPach'revenue”'opportuni<es,'or'for'
the'major'management'tool'providers,'it'provides'a'defense'against'losing'
contracts'on'wider'IT'management'
Thursday, March 21, 13

42. March 20, 2013Dirty New World
The New Rules
Doing M2M right requires fortitude
42
Agheera Pulse
http://vimeo.com/41481380
High Value Items
Embracing
disruption of
systems and
methods
Willingness to be
transparent
Much more than
Software
Thursday, March 21, 13

43. March 20, 2013Dirty New World
The New Rules
Oops
43
“We are extremely sorry
for the frustration this
has caused our
customers and we are
doing everything we can
to make Maps better.”
-Tim
Thursday, March 21, 13

44. March 20, 2013Dirty New World
The New Rules
Driving every street is a big bet
44
But you might
just have to do
it.
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45. March 20, 2013Dirty New World
New Rules
Takeaway:
Some things that seem like good ideas
aren’t worth pursuing, and others
require novel efforts
(You must disrupt)
45
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46. March 20, 2013Dirty New World
The New Rules
Emergent behaviors have unintended
real-world consequences
46
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47. March 20, 2013Dirty New World
New Rules
47
You have to “think outside the kitchen”
“Brad the Toaster” is design
fiction that outlines a scenario
where a self-directed
appliance is able to find
places and owners that will
best use him, and then ship
himself there.
The story of Brad the Toaster,
by frog’s Simone
Rebaudengo:
<http://vimeo.com/
41363473
Thursday, March 21, 13

48. March 20, 2013Dirty New World
New Rules
48
New kinds of stories will be told
“The Brave Little Toaster” is a
short story about a renegade
pack of energy drink, and
havoc it wreaks before the
Brave Toaster is able to, um,
deal with it.
Source: Cory Doctorow
<http://craphound.com/?
p=3704>
From: The Brave Little Toaster by Cory Doctorow
One day, Mister Toussaint came home to find an extra 300 euros' worth of groceries on his
doorstep. So he called up Miz Rousseau, the grocer, and said, "Why have you sent me all this
food? My fridge is already full of delicious things. I don't need this stuff and besides, I can't pay
for it."
But Miz Rousseau told him that he had ordered the food. His refrigerator had sent in the list,
and she had the signed order to prove it.
Furious, Mister Toussaint confronted his refrigerator. It was mysteriously empty, even though it
had been full that morning. Or rather, it was *almost* empty: there was a single pouch of energy
drink sitting on a shelf in the back. He'd gotten it from an enthusiastically smiling young
woman on the metro platform the day before. She'd been giving them to everyone.
"Why did you throw away all my food?" he demanded. The refrigerator hummed smugly at him.
"It was spoiled," it said.
Thursday, March 21, 13

49. March 20, 2013Dirty New World
It’s Dirty
It’s dirty out there.
Device design is breaking long-held rules
Mobile networks are glitchy
The IoT is messy and complicated,
and failure can be expensive
Pervasive computing is starting
to offend people
Connected device scenarios are
hard work
Emergent behavior has unintended real-world
consequences
49
Thursday, March 21, 13

50. But we’re already adapting
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51. March 20, 2013Dirty New World
It’s Dirty
In the Dirty New World, design thinking
is more important than ever
Conduct participatory design
Prototype!
Test early and often with customers
Show some demand and viability
Demonstrate ability to scale
51
Thursday, March 21, 13

52. © 2013 frog. All rights reserved.
Thursday, March 21, 13