Climate Change and Society

1. Lecture 12
Mitigation and adapting to climate
change
LSGI 1B02 Climate change and Society
LEUNG Wing-mo

2. Climate change – the state of the
science
• Movie , by the International Geosphere-
Biosphere Programme
• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_EWOrZ
Q3L-c#t=207

3. 3
Can we avoid Climate Change?
NO
Can we reduce Climate Change?
YES

5. Dealing with Climate Change:
Mitigation (減緩)and Adaptation(適應)
Mitigation (reduce GHG)
• To decrease force or intensity.
• To alleviate, lower risk.
• To make something very bad
less bad.
• To reduce emissions of GHG,
enhance sinks of GHG.
Adaptation (prepare for
unavoidable impacts)
• To manage the change that occurs as
mitigation strategies are implemented.
•To alter the exposure
•To reduce the sensitivity
•To increase capacity to adjust
• To avoid unavoidable consequences of
climate change.
Adaptation and mitigation are complements, not trade-offs

6. Actor and environmental activist Leonardo DiCaprio addresses the UN summit
meeting on climate change. DiCaprio was named a United Nations Messenger of
Peace in 2014.
• As an actor I pretend for a living. I play fictitious characters often solving fictitious
problems.
• I believe humankind has looked at climate change in that same way: as if it were a
fiction, happening to someone else’s planet, as if pretending that climate change
wasn’t real would somehow make it go away.
• I beg you to face it with courage. And honesty.

7. Warsaw Climate Change Conference, 11 – 22 Nov 2013
Mr Sano, the Philippines : “In solidarity with my countrymen who are
struggling to find food, I will commence a fasting for the climate, until a
meaningful outcome is in sight.” Sano linked the staggering devastation
caused by Typhoon Haiyan to a changing climate.

8. 0
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Watersecurity
Coastalcommunities
Energysecurity
Majorinfrastructure
Health:Heat-relateddeaths
Foodsecurity
Tourism
Agriculture&Forestry
Naturalecosystems
Coping range Adaptive capacity Vulnerability
Sustainabledevelopment
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Increaseintemperature
Hennessy, K., B. et al. 2007: Australia and New Zealand. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability.
Contribution of Working Group II to the AR4 of the IPCC
Q1. Why worry
about a few
degrees change?
Q2. Why
don’t we wait
and see?
• we can’t stop climate
change quickly when
we find out it’s harm;
• Non-linear, multiple
feedback – abrupt,
persistent, costly
changes
International concensus - Limit temperature
rise to 2 C from pre-industrial level

9. Well-being
disaster
time
(a) coping
(d) climate change adaptation
time
Well-being
hazards
(b) resilience
time
disaster
time
(c) climate change impacts
more frequent disasters
Gradual
changes
undermining
well-being
Coping, resilience and adaptation

10. Human’s systematic response to climate change

11. Source: IPCC 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change —SPM
Co-benefits of Reducing Emissions
Many emissions reduction strategies also
provide benefits for:
•air quality,
•public health,
•energy security,
•agricultural production,
•balance of trade,
•employment,
•income generation, wealth creation, and poverty
alleviation.
©AllanFox

12. Mitigation

13. Mitigation needs to be a global effort :
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change,
(UNFCCC )
• Kyoto Protocol [京都議訂書], 2008 - 2012 (191
UN parties) –
– an international treaty under UNFCCC (Canada
and USA withdrew their endorsement);
– 2012 Conference of the Parties (COP) (COP18
Doha) extended the life of Kyoto Protocol (to
2020)
• Tragedy of the Commons [公地悲劇](Tragedy of
the Fishers) –
• Individually rational economic decision leads to
detriment of all (the commons)
• Produced at Earth Summit, 1992 (UN Conference on Environment
and Development, 195 parties)-
An 1992 international treaty to consider yearly what can be done globally
to reduce and to cope with global warming.

14. Factors contributing to GHG increase

15. People - population explosion, is one the rise
CO2 = P . S . E . C

16. CO2 = P . S . E . C
Guinea – school by streetlight
S should also be on the rise

17. Energy per service is falling, but not fast enough
CO2 = P . S . E . C

18. CO2 = P . S . E . C
If C = 0
CO2 = 0
The logical approach is therefore de-carbonization

19. Mitigation decision points
Modified from University of Melbourne graphics
Nuclear
Ocean
Investment in R & D to achieve reduction in GHG for all decision points

20. Policy options to reduce GHG
• Taxes or fees
– Tax base, or what is taxable (Shall we tax for sheep, cattle?)
– Tax rate (e.g. Australian $23/tonne CO2e)
– Use of revenue windfall
• Emissions trading scheme
– Set a limited aggregate quantity of emissions and establish a market to
buy and sell emissions permits. (for EU, about 40% of
emitters/polluters are under the scheme)
• Regulations
– Electricity production methods; choice of products, energy efficient
buildings, restriction on use of cars; land clearing…
• Subsidies
– Production methods; choice of products; R&D to reduce emission

21. Mitigation policy objectives
• Reduce GHG emissions, and future climate
change.
• Desirable to have a simple system with low
costs for government and the private sector.
• Need to consider redistribution effects of the
policy interventions
– There will be some losers, many winners, and a
net society gain.

22. Transportation Efficiency
A car that gets 30 mpg releases 1 ton of carbon into the air
for every 10,000 miles of driving
Fuel efficient cars get more miles per gallon (mpg)
Increasing the fuel efficiency of cars will reduce the amount
of CO2 emitted into the atmosphere

23. Transport Conservation
With more cars on the road, the amount of CO2 emitted
steadily increases.
Reducing the time and number of cars on the road will
reduce emissions.
Increasing the use of public transportation would reduce the
amount of individual driving time.

24. Building Efficiency
Providing electricity, transportation, and heat for buildings
produces high levels of CO2 emission.
Reducing heating and energy use would reduce the amount of
carbon released into the atmosphere.
Insulating buildings, using alternative energy sources, and solar
water heating are ways to reduce emissions.

25. Efficient Electricity Production
Improving coal plant efficiency will
significantly reduce carbon
emission. This requires alternative
ways of using coal to produce
electricity.

26. Reforestation as carbon sink
Dr Wangari Maathai ,
Kenya, Nobel Peace Prize
laureate, Green Belt
movement (1976)

27. Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS)
Fuel needs of a coal-fired CCS plant increase by 25 – 40%;
Costs of energy production increases by 21- 91%.

28. Geoengineering

29. Giving CO2 a price is the most important
• Policies that provide a real or implicit price of carbon could
create incentives for producers and consumers to significantly
invest in low-GHG products, technologies and processes.
• Such policies could include economic instruments,
government funding and regulation
• For meeting EU 2 degrees target: about 100 US$/tCO2eq
carbon price needed by 2030 (current EU-ETS price ~$ 25)
• But… do not forget the co-benefits

30. Technology in the long term
• The range of stabilization levels can be achieved by
– deployment of a portfolio of technologies that are
currently available and
– those that are expected to be commercialised in coming
decades.
• This assumes that appropriate and effective
incentives are in place for development, acquisition,
deployment and diffusion of technologies and for
addressing related barriers

31. New nuclear technology

32. Adaptation

33. Adaptation
• Needed even with very stringent mitigation
• Limits to adaptation:
– Certain risks can not be reduced
– More serious impacts go beyond adaptive capacity
• Main areas:
– Water
– Agriculture
– Infrastructure
– Health
– Tourism
– Energy
• Adaptation and mitigation are complementary
• Costs hardly known

34. Floating house in Netherlands

35. In 《沈沒的國度》Kiribati President Anote Tong said, ”It
would certainly be a sad thing if ever there was a nation
disappeared. We certainly do not want to be a lost nation.”.

36. A source of water in Kiribati

37. Examples of Adaptation in Africa
• Egypt
– Sea-level rise : Adoption of National Climate Change Action Plan
integrating climate change concerns into national policies;
adoption of Law 4/94 requiring Environmental Impact
Assessment (EIA) for project approval and regulating setback
distances for coastal infrastructure; installation of hard
structures in areas vulnerable to coastal erosion.
• Sudan
– Drought : Expanded use of traditional rainwater harvesting and
water conserving techniques; building of shelter-belts and wind-
breaks to improve resilience of rangelands; monitoring of the
number of grazing animals and cut trees; set-up of revolving
credit funds.
• Botswana
– Drought : National government programmes to re-create
employment options after drought; capacity building of local
authorities; assistance to small subsistence farmers to increase
crop production.

38. Adaptation in Asia & Oceania
• Bangladesh :
– Sea-level rise; salt-water intrusion: Consideration of climate change in the
National Water Management Plan; building of flow regulators in coastal
embankments; use of alternative crops and low-technology water filters.
• Philippines
– Drought; floods : Adjustment of silvicultural treatment schedules to suit
climate variations; shift to drought-resistant crops; use of shallow tube wells;
rotation method of irrigation during water shortage; construction of water
impounding basins; construction of fire lines and controlled burning; adoption
of soil and water conservation measures for upland farming.
– Sea-level rise; storm surges :Capacity building for shoreline defence system
design; introduction of participatory risk assessment; provision of grants to
strengthen coastal resilience and rehabilitation of infrastructures; construction
of cyclone-resistant housing units; retrofit of buildings to improved hazard
standards; review of building codes; reforestation of mangroves.
– Drought; salt-water intrusion :Rainwater harvesting; leakage reduction;
hydroponic farming; bank loans allowing for purchase of rainwater storage
tanks.

39. Adaptation in Americas
• Canada
– (1) Permafrost melt; change in ice cover: Changes in livelihood practices by the Inuit,
including: change of hunt locations; diversification of hunted species; use of Global Positioning
Systems (GPS) technology; encouragement of food sharing.
– (2) Extreme temperatures: Implementation of heat health alert plans in Toronto, which
include measures such as: opening of designated cooling centres at public locations;
information to the public through local media; distribution of bottled water through the Red
Cross to vulnerable people; operation of a heat information line to answer heat-related
questions; availability of an emergency medical service vehicle with specially trained staff and
medical equipment.
• United States
– Sea-level rise : Land acquisition programmes taking account of climate change (e.g., New
Jersey Coastal Blue Acres land acquisition programme to acquire coastal lands damaged/prone
to damages by storms or buffering other lands; the acquired lands are being used for
recreation and conservation); establishment of a ‘rolling easement’ in Texas, an entitlement to
public ownership of property that ‘rolls’ inland with the coastline as sea-level rises; other
coastal policies that encourage coastal landowners to act in ways that anticipate sea-level
rise.
• Mexico and Argentina
– Drought: Adjustment of planting dates and crop variety (e.g., inclusion of drought-resistant
plants such as agave and aloe); accumulation of commodity stocks as economic reserve;
spatially separated plots for cropping and grazing to diversify exposures; diversification of
income by adding livestock operations; set-up/provision of crop insurance; creation of local
financial pools (as alternative to commercial crop insurance).

40. Adaptation in Europe
• The Netherlands,
– Sea-level rise : Adoption of Flooding Defence Act and Coastal Defence Policy as precautionary
approaches allowing for the incorporation of emerging trends in climate; building of a storm
surge barrier taking a 50 cm sea-level rise into account; use of sand supplements added to
coastal areas; improved management of water levels through dredging, widening of river
banks, allowing rivers to expand into side channels and wetland areas; deployment of water
storage and retention areas; conduct of regular (every 5 years) reviews of safety
characteristics of all protecting infrastructure (dykes, etc.); preparation of risk assessments of
flooding and coastal damage influencing spatial planning and engineering projects in the
coastal zone, identifying areas for potential (land inward) reinforcement of dunes.
• Austria, France, Switzerland
– Upward shift of natural snow-reliability line; glacier melt : Artificial snow-making; grooming of
ski slopes; moving ski areas to higher altitudes and glaciers; use of white plastic sheets as
protection against glacier melt; diversification of tourism revenues (e.g., all-year tourism).
– Permafrost melt; debris flows: Erection of protection dams in Pontresina (Switzerland)
against avalanches and increased magnitude of potential debris flows stemming from
permafrost thawing.
• United Kingdom
– Floods; sea-level rise: Coastal realignment under the Essex Wildlife Trust, converting over 84
ha of arable farmland into salt marsh and grassland to provide sustainable sea defences;
maintenance and operation of the Thames Barrier through the Thames Estuary 2100 project
that addresses flooding linked to the impacts of climate change; provision of guidance to
policy makers, chief executives, and parliament on climate change and the insurance sector
(developed by the Association of British Insurers).

41. Adaptation strategies
• Prepare for future scenarios (proactive):
– Flood defence
– Refugee support
– City planning
– Stockpiling vaccines
• Through:
– Technological
– Administrative
– behavioral

42. Ecosystem-based approaches to
adaptation
• Healthy, well-functioning ecosystems enhance natural resilience to
the adverse impacts of climate change and reduce vulnerability of
people;
• “Green infrastructure” as opposed to “grey”
• Integrated management of land, water and living resources that
promotes conservation and sustainable use in an equitable way.
• Address the crucial links between climate change, biodiversity,
ecosystem services and sustainable resource management.
• Use ecosystems (wetlands, marshes, grasslands) to protect against
climate change impacts.
• Benefits:
– Achieve multiple objectives: sink carbon, protect against flooding
purify water, enhance aesthetics, provide recreational opportunities

43. 2008
Paper

44. Proposal - HK to reduce GHG emission by
20-30% in 2020
• Maximizing energy efficiency:
– Building energy code (Building Energy Efficiency
Ordinance, 2012, for new buildings);
– District cooling system (Kai Tak);
– Energy efficiency standard for electrical appliances;
• Greening road transport:
– MTR, EV, alternative fuel (biofuel), clean fuels;
• Turning waste to energy:
– Landfill gas, incineration with energy recovery, biogas
from organic waste;
• Revamping fuel mix for electricity generation:
– retiring coal-fired power plant, low carbon fuels,
renewable energy, nuclear energy.

45. HK adaptation options
• Monitoring:
– Guidelines for development in response to extreme
temperature,
– water management in response to drought,
– warnings and prevention projects for flood,
– guidance on building design for high winds/gusts,
– strengthening of public health system to prevent communicable
diseases.
• Government’s role is also to provide support for private
sector in making adaptation decisions:
– Provide information on the form and magnitude of climate
change, decision choice options, and their pros and cons;
– Regulatory structure which allows flexibility for households and
firms to change decisions in response to climate change
– Coordination of decision changes which require the
participation of many private sector players.

46. HK adaptation options (cont.)
• Institutional strengthening and capacity
building;
• Disaster management and emergency
planning;
• Adjust public funding in R & D;
• Conservation of ecosystems and biodiversity;
• Education and public awareness.

47. A
What can we do as individuals ?

48. Lord, what fools these mortals be!
Shakespeare, 1596
Man did not weave the web of life – he is merely a
strand in it. Whatever he does to the web, he
does to himself.
Chief Seattle, 1854
Epilogue