Presentation delivered by Asher Miller to Marin Environmental Forum November 29, 2011.

1. 1

2. 2

3. 3

4. 4

5. d
5

6. converging crises
the end of economic growth
6

7. converging crises
the end of economic growth
e energ y
extrem
a n age of
7

8. converging crises
e energ y a clima
extrem te in
a n age of ux
8

9. 9

10. 10

11. reindeer on St. Matthew
0 29
1940 1944 1957 1963 1964 1966 1980s
source: Journal of Wildlife Management
11

12. reindeer on St. Matthew
1,350
0 29
1940 1944 1957 1963 1964 1966 1980s
source: Journal of Wildlife Management
11

13. reindeer on St. Matthew
6,000
1,350
0 29
1940 1944 1957 1963 1964 1966 1980s
source: Journal of Wildlife Management
11

14. reindeer on St. Matthew
6,000
1,350
0 29 42
1940 1944 1957 1963 1964 1966 1980s
source: Journal of Wildlife Management
11

15. reindeer on St. Matthew
6,000
1,350
0 29 42 42
1940 1944 1957 1963 1964 1966 1980s
source: Journal of Wildlife Management
11

16. reindeer on St. Matthew
6,000
1,350
0 29 42 42 0
1940 1944 1957 1963 1964 1966 1980s
source: Journal of Wildlife Management
11

17. 12

18. humans on Earth
7 billion
2010: my son born
6 billion
5 billion
4 billion
1972: I was born
3 billion
2 billion
1 billion
0 billion
1K BCE 500 BCE 1 CE 500 CE 1K CE 1500 CE Now
source: wikipedia
13

19. humans on Earth
7 billion
6 billion
00 = 10
5 billion
f 1,0
1% o
4 billion
3 billion
2 billion
1 billion
0 billion
1K BCE 500 BCE 1 CE 500 CE 1K CE 1500 CE Now
source: wikipedia
14

20. humans on Earth
7 billion
6 billion
00 = 10
5 billion
f 1,0
1% o
mil lion
4 billion 10
illio n=
%o f1b
3 billion
1
2 billion
1 billion
0 billion
1K BCE 500 BCE 1 CE 500 CE 1K CE 1500 CE Now
source: wikipedia
15

21. a GROWING problem
real GDP damming of rivers water use fertilizer consumption
paper consumption motor vehicles telephones atmospheric CO2
source: IGBP, Steffen et al 2004
ozone depletion natural climate disasters biodiversity loss
16

22. 17

23. 18

24. how many planets do we need?
1.6 earths
1961 1970 1980 1990 2000 2008
source: Global Footprint Network
19

25. 20

26. copyright Sebastião Salgado
21

27. oil
22

28. oil
coal
23

29. oil
coal
natural gas
24

30. 25

31. 26

32. 27

33. 28

34. 29

35. 30

36. 31

37. 32

38. US energy consumption
Biomass (Wood) Coal Natural Gas Petroleum Hydro Nuclear
100
80
quadrillion BTU
60
40
20
0
1705 1755 1805 1855 1905 1955 2005
source: US Energy Information Agency
33

39. 34

40. d
35

41. 36

42. converging crises
the end of the age of a climate
economic growth extreme energy in ux
37

43. 38

44. winning the energy lottery
39

45. M. King Hubbert
40

46. Hubbert’s peak
41

47. US oil discoveries & production
discoveries (lower 48) oil production
40,000 12,000
production (million barrels)
discoveries (million barrels)
30,000 9,000
20,000 6,000
10,000 3,000
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
42

48. world oil discoveries
recoverable reserves number of elds discovered
400
reserves, in gigabarrels
300
200
100
0
1850-1900 1910s 1930s 1950s 1970s 1990s
43

49. global crude oil production
75
million barrels/day
73
71
68
66
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
44

50. 45

51. 46

52. 47

53. the oil price trap
Oil price
Minimum oil
needed for
price likely
development
to trigger
of new oil
economic
production
recession:
capacity:
$100
$70
48

54. oil prices & recessions
recessions oil prices
$150
$120
USD/barrel
$90
$60
$30
$0
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
49

55. good riddance, right?
50

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51

57. evaluating alternatives
- size of resource
52

58. evaluating alternatives
- size of resource
- infrastructure requirements
53

59. evaluating alternatives
- size of resource
- infrastructure requirements
- convenience of use
54

60. evaluating alternatives
- size of resource
- infrastructure requirements
- convenience of use
- environmental impact
55

61. evaluating alternatives
- size of resource
- infrastructure requirements
- convenience of use
- environmental impact
- renewability
56

62. evaluating alternatives
- size of resource
- infrastructure requirements
- convenience of use
- environmental impact
- renewability
- scalability
57

63. evaluating alternatives
- size of resource
- infrastructure requirements
- convenience of use
- environmental impact
- renewability
- scalability
- location of resource
58

64. 59

65. the tough reality
ere is
no credible scenario
in which alternative energy sources
can make up for fossil fuels
once declines begin.
60

66. PCI Fellows
61

67. key conclusions
- we have hit the limits to growth
62

68. key conclusions
- we have hit the limits to growth
- no issue can be addressed in isolation
63

69. key conclusions
- we have hit the limits to growth
- no issue can be addressed in isolation
- we must focus on responses, not just solutions
64

70. key conclusions
- we have hit the limits to growth
- no issue can be addressed in isolation
- we must focus on responses, not just solutions
- we must prepare for business unusual
65

71. key conclusions
- we have hit the limits to growth
- no issue can be addressed in isolation
- we must focus on responses, not just solutions
- we must prepare for business unusual
- we must build resilience
66

72. resilience
the ability to absorb shocks
and continue to function
67

73. 68

74. managing the transition
not a question of if
but a question of how
69

75. great transitions
re language
agriculture
industrialism
now
70

76. crisis = opportunity
is is the biggest opportunity
of our lifetimes.
Who will seize it?
71