6. 筆者要鄭重指出的是,摒棄新自由主義絕非等
於反對市場經濟。事實是,自有文明以來,市
場便是人類社會和經濟活動的重要組成部分。
但正如環保學者 Amory Lovins 所說:「市場
只不過是一種工具。它是一個不錯的僕人,卻
是一個糟糕的主人,更是一個糟透了的宗教。」
(Markets are only tools. They make a good
servant but a bad master and a worse
religion.)
7. 早於上世紀末,一些有識之士便已指出,人類
必須在共產主義和資本主義之外,開出一條新
的發展道路。1997 年英國首相貝理雅(Tony
Blair)上台時,曾以著名社會學家 Anthony
Giddens 的學術理念為基礎,提出了「第三條
道路」(The Third Way)的構想。可惜的是,
貝理雅敵不過跨國大財團大企業的壓力,最後
還是在新自由主義和全球化經濟的巨浪之前低
頭。而「第三條道路」的理想,更淪為人們的
笑柄。
54. 進一步的參考資料:
The UK New Economics Foundation (nef):
http://www.neweconomics.org/about
The Post-Autistic Economics Network:
http://www.paecon.net/PAEmovementindex1.
htm
The Monfort Plan:
http://povertyblog.wordpress.com/2009/10/28
/the-monfort-plan/
55. 以下是我在網上找到的一個由聯合國 Depat of
Economic & Social Affairs所製作的ppt。主題
是締造一個 Global New Deal,為所有人提供
一個基本的 Social Floor.
56. UN DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL AFFAIRS
A Global New Deal for People in a
Global Crisis:
Social Protection for All
Isabel Ortiz
Senior Interregional Advisor
United Nations DESA
United Nations Commission for Social Development
New York, 6 February 2009
57. World’s Distribution of Income before
the Financial Crisis: Apartheid at a Global Scale?
Source: Sutcliffe, 2005. Department of Economic and Social Affairs.WP 2. United Nations
58. 2008- FOOD AND FUEL CRISIS
More people suffering from poverty, unemployment and hunger
• Food crisis sidelined although it continues to pose a global humanitarian challenge
Falling prices but also falling incomes due to world recession
•
Source: United Nations, 2009: World Economic Situation and Prospects. New York, UNDESA
Food crisis currently sidelined although it continues to pose a global
humanitarian challenge
Falling prices but also falling incomes due to world recession
59. VIOLENT RIOTS AND PROTESTS
BECAUSE FOOD CRISIS
Food Protests 2007-08
20
15
10 • Violent
5 Non-violent
0
Low Low -Middle Upper- High
income Income Middle Income
Countries Income
Source: IFPRI, 2008 based on news reports
60. 2008- GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS
WORLD INCOME PER CAPITA WILL DECLINE IN 2009
Source: United Nations, 2009: World Economic Situation and Prospects. New York, UNDESA
61. SOCIAL IMPACTS FINANCIAL CRISIS:
TRANSMISSION CHANNELS
Prices
Basic food
Agricultural inputs Government Spending and
Essential drugs Utilization of Social Services
Fuel • Education
• Health
Employment and Income
Wage cuts, reduction in • Social security
benefits • Employment programmes
Decreased demand for
migrant workers Aid Levels (ODA decreasing?)
Remittances
Returns from pension funds
Assets and Credit
Loss of savings due to bank
failures
Loss of savings as a coping
mechanism
Home foreclosures 2009:
Lack of access to credit
MDGs at Risk
62. LESSONS FROM OTHER FINANCIAL CRISIS
Lessons from other financial crisis show that social
consequences need to be tackled urgently
Quick increase unemployment, poverty, hunger
Women more affected than men
Children malnourished, out of school
Increased morbidity and mortality rates
Contracting fiscal space
Urgent need to:
• Expand social expenditures, protecting:
Job and income security
Access to goods and services (e.g. food, health)
• Stimulus packages aimed to expand credit, economic
activity
• Increase quality aid (ODA)
63. 1929 CRASH LED TO A NEW DEAL
The New Deal (1933- )
• Bank reforms
• Social Security Act (1935)
• Universal old-age pensions
• Unemployment insurance
• Social assistance for poor
families and persons with
disabilities
• Employment programs (public
works), collective bargaining,
minimum wages
• Farm/rural programs
64. SO WHY NOT A GLOBAL NEW DEAL?
The crisis an opportunity to redress existing
assymetries, poverty, over-reliance on market forces,
speculation
Economic policies – better regulating markets,
reforming international system, fiscal stimulus…
Social policies: A social security floor, a basic and
modest set of social protection guarantees for all
citizens
1. Income security through basic, universal non-
contributory pensions for:
older persons,
persons with disabilities
2. Child benefits
3. Employment programmes
4. Financing universal access to essential health care
5. Food security programmes
65. THE CASE FOR A GLOBAL SOCIAL FLOOR:
SOCIAL JUSTICE ARGUMENTS
Unacceptable levels of poverty and inequality
Half of the world lives below the $2-a-day
poverty line
The poorest 50% of the world’s adult population
receives 1% of global wealth (UN WIDER, 2006)
Social security is a human right:
Articles 22 and 25 of the Universal Declaration of
Human Rights states: “Everyone, as a member of
society, has the right to social security”
But 80% of global population remains without
access
66. BUT ALSO STRONG ECONOMIC ARGUMENTS
Inequality is economically inefficient / dysfunctional
World problem of overproduction and global excess
capacity in the context of weak effective demand
Consumption concentrated in top income deciles
Raising the incomes of the poor increases domestic
demand and, in turn, encourages growth by
expanding domestic markets
A Global Social Floor can be an effective instrument to:
Boost economic growth by raising domestic
demand / internal markets
Enhance human capital and productive
employment - a better educated, healthy and
well nourished workforce.
67. … AND POLITICAL ARGUMENTS
A Global Social Floor can be effective to
prevent conflict and create politically stable
societies
Poverty and gross inequities tend to
generate intense social tensions and violent
conflict
Other crisis: riots, violent xenophobia
The huge disparities in income inequality
encourage uncontrolled migration
68. TRANSFERS REDUCE POVERTY MORE THAN
50% IN OECD COUNTRIES
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0 France Germany Italy Netherlands Sweden UK US
Pre-tax/transfer Post-tax/transfer
Source: OECD
69. South Africa Social Transfers Effective to
Reduce Poverty and Destitution – Cost 3% GDP
Source: Sampson, M. 2006, EFPRI South Africa
=> However social transfers are rarely considered in National
Development Strategies/Poverty Reduction Strategies in Developing
Countries
=> Social Transfers can make the difference between achieving MDG1
of halving poverty by 2015 or not
70. CASH TRANSFERS SCHEMES IN DEVELOPING
COUNTRIES: COVERING 200 MILLION PEOPLE
TYPE OF TRANSFERS COUNTRIES
Unconditional
Household Income Chile, China, Mozambique, Zambia
Support
Social Pensions Argentina, Bolivia, Bangladesh, Brazil,
Bostwana, Chile, Costa Rica, India, Lesotho,
Mauritius, Moldova, Namibia, Nepal, Samoa,
South Africa, Tajikistan, Uruguay, Vietnam
Child/Family Benefits Mozambique, South Africa
Conditional
Cash for Work Argentina, Etiopía, India, South Korea, Malawi,
South Africa
Cash for Human Bangladesh, Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador,
Development Honduras, Jamaica, México, Mongolia,
Nicaragua
Source: Source: ILO, 2007. Social Security Department, Geneva and UN DESA, 2007: World Economic and Social
Survey 2007, United Nations
71. CASH TRANSFERS – LESSONS LEARNT FROM
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
Prevalence:
In more than 25 developing countries
Covering at least 150-200 million people
Cost:
Basic means-tested social assistance benefits- about 0.2% GDP
Complete set of basic universal benefits – From 2% to 5% of GDP
Poverty impact:
South Africa reduced poverty gap by 48 %
Mexico PROGRESA/Oportunidades and Brazil’s Bolsa Scola:
Reduced poverty by 12 points
Education: Positive enrolment effects and school attendance
duration in Mexico, Brazil, Colombia, Bangladesh, Nicaragua and
Zambia
Health: Positive effects on height, weight of children and nutritional
status in Colombia, Mexico, Chile, Malawi, South Africa
72. Financing a Global New Deal:
National Sources
A Social Floor is affordable, estimated at an average
2% to 5% GDP in developing countries (ILO)
It have to grow with the fiscal space made available
by:
Increasing GDP
Aid/debt
Domestic resources exist:
Accumulated reserves
Budget reallocation
Need to increase efficiency of tax collection -
Billions lost through tax evasion, inadequate tax
systems, illicit flows
South-North transfers must be reversed, use
savings for the development of the South
73. Budget Reallocation: Warfare vs. Human Welfare
Source: Richard Jolly, 2004: Military spending and development, Sussex, IDS
74. Potential Fiscal Space:
Use of Accumulated
Reserves
Increasing Global Reserve
Accumulation, 1998-2007
Little left to
governments
to spend on
social and
economic
development
75. Potential Fiscal Space
Developing Countries Financial Flows
Source: EURODAD, 2008. Capital flight diverts development finance. EURODAD: Brussels.
76. Financing a Global New Deal:
International Sources
Strong argument for North-South transfers given world
inequalities, 70% explained by differences in income
between countries (UNDESA)
ILO estimates that basic social security would cost
2% of world’s GDP
Mechanisms:
Increased Official Development Aid
Multilateral and bilateral ODA to
governments
New instruments like SWAps and Budget
Support ideal
World Solidarity Fund? Global New Deal Fund?
77. Crisis: What Next?
Monitoring social conditions (creating “alarms”) to call for
urgent support
Social expenditures need to be protected and expanded
Analyzing distributional impacts of different economic
policy options to the crisis, and creating a public debate
Supporting governments (“How to”, instruments, best
options…)
Crisis response facility (World Solidarity Fund/Global New
Deal Fund?)
Donor contributions
Management: One-UN
Recipients: Governments to jump-start a New Deal:
Income security through basic, universal non-contributory
pensions
Child benefits
Employment programmes
Access to social services
Food security programmes
78. Thank you
United Nations Department of Economic
and Social Affairs
http://www.un.org/esa/
Email: ortizi@un.org