Greiman City of Boston Presentation 2013

Managing Project Complexity

Northeast Public Sector Project Management Conference
City of Boston Department of Innovation and Technology and
Boston Public Schools
March 20, 2013

Presented By: Professor Virginia A. Greiman
V. A. Greiman Copyright © 2013

What Makes a Project Complex?
Size and Duration: The Big Dig, Crossrail and The
English Chunnel (FHWA: More than $1Billion)

Technology: Hoover Dam and Panama Canal
Extension

Untried: BP Gulf of Mexico Oil Disaster

Integration of Processes: Many Diverse and
Autonomous, but interrelated and interdependent
components or parts linked through many dense
interconnections and interfaces.
Virginia A. Greiman © 2013
2

Unique Characteristics of Complex
Projects
Long Duration – 10 to 60 years

Extensive Public Scrutiny

Ambiguity and Uncertainty

Large Scale Policy Making

Complex Organizational and Governance Structures

Consistent Cost Underestimation

Systems Complexity

3

Linkage Between Complexity and
Ambiguity
If requirements are Ambiguous, then resolving that
Ambiguity will be more complex than if projects are
well specified

If the deliverables are complex, then it follows that
the outcomes will be less certain, especially if the
plan is ambiguous about how success will be
measured

Virginia A. Greiman © Copyright 2012
4

Challenges of Mega Projects
Keeping the Focus on Quality and Safety instead of Schedule
and Cost

Integration of all Project Disciplines throughout the Life of the
Project

Educating and Involving the Public Citizens from the Inception
of the Project

Establishing a strong public owner with independent oversight

Integration does not mean sacrificing Independence!

Dynamic governance structures

5

Boston’s Big Dig

An Example of a Complex Project

6

Another Example
London’s Crossrail Project - 16 Billion Pounds
– 42 kilometres of rail tunnels underneath London
– Nine new Stations
– 200 million passengers
– 10% increase in rail capacity

UK’s High Speed Rail Service between London and Birmingham
(HS2) - 17 Billion Pounds

7

CA/T Program
• 54 Design Packages
• 132 Construction Packages
• 9000 Processes & Procedures
• 161 Lane Miles
• 5 Major Interchanges

• Landmark Cable-stay Bridge

• Jacked Tunnels

• Immersed Tubes

• Soil Freezing

• Deep Soil Mixing

• 8 miles of Slurry Wall

• Jet Grouting
VV. A. Greiman © 2012
2012•
Virginia A. Greiman © Copyright
Excavation and Parks

Major Complexity Challenges on the
Big Dig:
Project Integration – (150 Major Employers – One Team)
5,000 workers, thousands of complex processes

Risk Management – World’s Largest Wrap-up Program

Ambiguity and Uncertainty – Subsurface conditions

Technology Integration – Monitoring the Critical Path

Claims and Changes - Partnering

Project Integration Management

Close Project
Project Charter
7 1

Integrated Scope
Change Statement
Control 2
6

Project
Monitor Mgmt
And Direct and
Plan
Control Manage
3
5 Execution
4

Project Management
Institute, PMBOK, 4th ed.

What is Integration?
Requires each project and product process
to be appropriately aligned and connected
with the other processes to facilitate their
coordination. These process interactions
often require tradeoffs among project
requirements and objectives.

Integration on Large and Complex
Projects
Organizational Structure

– The People
– The Processes

Community and Public Concerns

Internal and External Stakeholders

First of 12 tube
sections each
longer than a
football field arrive
in Boston for the
Ted Williams
Tunnel

13

Fig. 7.1

EIS = Environmental
Impact
Statement
ICE – Interstate Cost
Estimate
CSU – Cost and
Schedule Update

Why are Mega Projects Consistently
Underestimated?

A review of large public works projects
over the last century concluded that
costs are consistently underestimated,
a phenomenon attributed to the desire
of the project advocates to have their
projects approved.
(Flyvbjerg, Megaprojects and Risk: An Anatomy of Ambition, 2002)

National Transportation Research
Board
In 2006, the Transportation Research Board’s Final Report
for Cost Estimation and Management for Highway Projects,
identified eight strategies to address cost escalation, and
linked these strategies to 18 different causes of cost
escalation on highway projects in the United States.
Notably, the research concluded that most efforts in cost
estimation have focused on creating tools to improve cost
estimates with less emphasis on tools for cost estimation
management.

(Anderson et. al. 2006).

Complexity and
Project Management Trade-offs

Design, Risk, Safety, and Quality
Decisions!!

Big Dig’s Worst Disaster

2006 Ted Williams Tunnel
Roof Collapse
Source: NTSB Report
19

National Transportation Safety Board
Findings
(1) Failure to identify potential creep by designers and contractors in the anchor adhesive as a
critical long-term failure mode

(2) A general lack of understanding and knowledge in the construction community about creep in
adhesive anchoring systems.

(3) Failure of the Contractor to provide the Central Artery/Tunnel project with sufficiently
complete, accurate, and detailed information about the suitability of the company’s Fast Set epoxy
for sustaining long-term tensile loads.

(4) Failure of Powers Fasteners, Inc., to determine that the anchor displacement that was found in
the high-occupancy vehicle tunnel in 1999 was a result of anchor creep.

(5) Failure of Contractor, subsequent to the 1999 anchor displacement, to continue to monitor
anchor performance in light of the uncertainty as to the cause of the failures.

(6) Failure of the owner to implement a timely tunnel inspection program that would likely have
revealed the ongoing anchor creep.

20

Mississippi River I-35 Bridge Collapse
in Minneapolis, August 1, 2007
The National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB)
determined that the probable cause of the collapse, was the
inadequate load capacity, due to a design error, of the gusset
plates at the U10 nodes.
Contributing to the accident was the generally accepted
practice among Federal and State transportation officials of
giving inadequate attention to gusset plates during
inspections for conditions of distortion, such as bowing, and
of excluding gusset plates in load rating analyses.

21

What Tradeoffs Have You Made on
Your Project?
Resources?
Quality?
Design?
Risk?
Time?
Cost?

22

Questions???

Virginia A. Greiman
Professor
Boston University
617-353-6860
ggreiman@bu.edu

23

Greiman City of Boston Presentation 2013

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