Today we introduce the Purple Election Perspective. This monthly snapshot will provide a bipartisan look at key indicators for 2012. In our first edition, we focus on critical economic and opinion data points that will set the national political terrain for the upcoming cycle. We also add essential context – comparison data for other incumbents over the last eight cycles. At this early stage, President Obama finds himself facing an extremely difficult political environment as he ramps up his re-election campaign. Nearly every indicator – economic and opinion – puts him in a poor position relative to other successful incumbents. It is important to emphasize that it is premature to make predictions – and as you’ll see in this month’s Purple Election Perspective, other incumbents have seen dramatic improvements during their re-election year. Enjoy, and let us know if you have any thoughts or comments (doug.usher@purplestrategies.com).

1. The Purple Perspective:
The 2012 Election
September, 2011
Doug Usher, Ph.D.
Managing Director, Purple Insights
1
815 Slaters Lane Alexandria, VA 22314 | 703.548.7877 | www.purplestrategies.com

2. What is The Purple Perspective?
Unbiased, data-driven analysis of the political environment
that helps our clients prepare for the future.
Key metrics put in proper historical context to offer real
insight, not just the latest spin from either side.
Updated regularly to provide the latest take on current
political conditions.
2

3. Overview
Obama faces substantial headwinds going into the 2012 campaign
Structural economic factors are driving a sour national mood
Polling indicators are at critical levels compared to other incumbents
Nonetheless, it remains too early for predictions:
Numbers have changed dramatically in past re-election campaigns
The GOP brand is not strong
Obama is likely to have a 9 figure financial advantage
3

4. What to watch… and not watch.
Watch:
Fundraising numbers, including related Super PACs
Monthly job numbers
Obama job ratings at the national and state levels
Avoid:
Daily reports from the campaign trail
Early head-to-head match-ups at either the state or national level
4

5. By nearly every key metric, Obama is at a disadvantage compared to
other incumbents
Metric Implications for
Incumbent
STRUCTURAL
Growth Rate in GDP
Unemployment Rate
Average Monthly Job Creation
OPINION
Presidential Approval
Party Favorability
Satisfaction with Direction Of The Country
Current State of Economy
Prospective Evaluation of Economy
Personal Financial Situation Last Year
Expected Financial Situation Next Year
TOTAL

6. GDP growth is middling compared to others at this point
Growth Rate in GDP
(Through Second Quarter, Year 3)
Reagan 9.3%
Bush II 3.4%
Bush I 2.7%
Obama 1.0%
Clinton 0.9%
Carter 0.4%
Source:
Bureau
of
Economic
Analysis
6

7. There has been wide variance in GDP growth in election years
Growth
Rate
in
GDP
(2005
Dollars)
20%
15%
Economic
Growth
Rate
10%
5%
0%
Carter
Reagan
Bush
I
-­‐5%
Clinton
Bush
II
Obama
-­‐10%
1/2
2/2
3/2
4/2
1/3
2/3
3/3
4/3
1/4
2/4
3/4
4/4
Source:
Bureau
of
Economic
Analysis
Quarter/Year
in
term
7

8. 2011 unemployment puts Obama in a weak position
Unemployment Rate
(July, Year 3)
Carter 5.7%
Clinton 5.7%
Bush II 6.2%
Bush I 6.8%
Obama 9.1%
Reagan 9.4%
Source:
Bureau
of
Labor
StaKsKcs
8

9. Reagan saw dramatic improvements in unemployment during his re-election
Unemployment
Rate
11%
Carter
Reagan
Bush
I
10%
Clinton
Unemployment
Rate
Bush
II
9%
Obama
8%
7%
6%
5%
4%
1/3
2/3
3/3
4/3
5/3
6/3
7/3
8/3
9/3
10/3
11/3
12/3
1/4
2/4
3/4
4/4
5/4
6/4
7/4
8/4
9/4
10/4
11/4
Source:
Bureau
of
Labor
StaKsKcs
Month/Year
in
term
9

10. Monthly job creation is particularly troublesome
Average Monthly
Job Creation
(Through July, Year 3)
Carter 315
Clinton 253
Bush I 44
Reagan -16
Bush II -85
Obama -103
Source:
Bureau
of
Labor
StaKsKcs
10

11. Reagan’s spike in job creation during the election year buoyed him
1200
Average
Monthly
Job
CreaKon
Carter
1000
Reagan
Bush
I
Clinton
800
Bush
II
Jobs
Created,
In
Thousands
Obama
600
400
200
0
-­‐200
-­‐400
-­‐600
1/3
2/3
3/3
4/3
5/3
6/3
7/3
8/3
9/3
10/3
11/3
12/3
1/4
2/4
3/4
4/4
5/4
6/4
7/4
8/4
9/4
10/4
11/4
Source:
Bureau
of
Labor
StaKsKcs
Month/Year
in
term
11

12. Obama’s job approval hovers at the low end for incumbents at this point
Do you approve or disapprove of the
way _____ is handling his job as % Saying Approve
president?
(August, Year 3)
Bush I 69%
Bush II 60%
Clinton 45%
Reagan 43%
Obama 38%
Carter 32%
Source:
Gallup
12

13. 50% appears to be a key demarcation line
Do you approve or disapprove of the way _____ is handling his job
as president?
90%
Job
Approval
80%
70%
%
Approving
60%
50%
40%
30%
Carter
Reagan
20%
Bush
I
Clinton
10%
Bush
II
Obama
0%
1/3
2/3
3/3
4/3
5/3
6/3
7/3
8/3
9/3
10/3
11/3
12/3
1/4
2/4
3/4
4/4
5/4
6/4
7/4
8/4
9/4
10/4
11/4
Month/Year
in
term
13
Source:
Gallup

14. At the same time, the Republican brand is damaged
The Democratic The Republican
Party Party
47% 33%
Favorable
Unfavorable 47% 59%
NET 0 -26
Source:
CNN/Opinion
Research
CorporaKon
14

15. Satisfaction with the country’s direction is very low
In
general,
are
you
saKsfied
or
dissaKsfied
with
the
way
things
are
going
in
the
United
States
at
this
Kme?
% Saying Satisfied
(August, Year 3)
Bush II 46%
Bush I 43%
Clinton 32%
Obama 11%
Reagan --
Source:
Gallup
15

16. Watching the trend over time will be critical
In
general,
are
you
saKsfied
or
dissaKsfied
with
the
way
things
are
going
in
the
United
States
at
this
Kme?
60%
SaKsfacKon
with
Ways
Things
Are
Going
in
the
US
50%
%
Saying
SaKsfied
40%
30%
20%
Bush
I
10%
Clinton
Bush
II
Obama
0%
1/3
2/3
3/3
4/3
5/3
6/3
7/3
8/3
9/3
10/3
11/3
12/3
1/4
2/4
3/4
4/4
5/4
6/4
7/4
8/4
9/4
10/4
11/4
Source:
Gallup
Month/Year
in
term
16

17. Positive evaluations of the economy are low
How
would
you
rate
economic
condiKons
in
this
country
today
-­‐-­‐
as
excellent,
good,
only
% Saying
fair,
or
poor?
Excellent or Good
(August, Year 3)
Bush II 25%
Obama 8%
Clinton --
Bush I --
Reagan --
Source:
Gallup
17

18. Recent winning incumbents have seen upswings
How
would
you
rate
economic
condiKons
in
this
country
today
-­‐-­‐
as
excellent,
good,
only
fair,
or
poor?
50%
Current
State
of
the
Economy
45%
Bush
I
40%
Clinton
%
Saying
Excellent/Good
Bush
II
35%
Obama
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
1/3
2/3
3/3
4/3
5/3
6/3
7/3
8/3
9/3
10/3
11/3
12/3
1/4
2/4
3/4
4/4
5/4
6/4
7/4
8/4
9/4
10/4
11/4
Source:
Gallup
Month/Year
in
term
18

19. Voters are slightly more optimistic about the direction of the economy than
under Bush Sr. and Clinton at this point
Do
you
think
the
naKonal
economy
is
geZng
be[er,
staying
the
same,
or
geZng
worse?
% Saying Better
(August, Year 3)
Reagan 50%
Bush II 26%
Obama 21%
Bush I 17%
Clinton 15%
Source:
American
Research
Associates
*Pre-­‐May
2011
quesKon
wording:
For
each
item
I
name,
please
tell
me
if
it’s
geZng
BETTER,
geZng
WORSE,
or
staying
about
the
same.
How
about
[ITEM]?
Is
that
geZng
MUCH
be[er/worse
or
SOMEWHAT
be[er/worse?
The
naKonal
economy
(Washington
Post)
19

20. However, Obama’s trend is in the wrong direction
Do
you
think
the
naKonal
economy
is
geZng
be[er,
staying
the
same,
or
geZng
worse?
60%
Reagan
ProspecKve
Economic
EvaluaKon
Bush
I
Clinton
50%
Bush
II
Obama
%
Saying
GeRng
BeTer
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1/3
2/3
3/3
4/3
5/3
6/3
7/3
8/3
9/3
10/3
11/3
12/3
1/4
2/4
3/4
4/4
5/4
6/4
7/4
8/4
9/4
10/4
11/4
Source:
American
Research
Associates
Month/Year
in
term
*Pre-­‐May
2011
quesKon
wording:
For
each
item
I
name,
please
tell
me
if
it’s
geZng
BETTER,
geZng
WORSE,
or
staying
about
the
same.
How
about
[ITEM]?
Is
that
20
geZng
MUCH
be[er/worse
or
SOMEWHAT
be[er/worse?
The
naKonal
economy
(Washington
Post)

21. Retrospective evaluations of the economy are at lows for an incumbent
Would
you
say
that
you
(and
your
family
living
there)
are
be[er
off
or
worse
off
financially
than
you
were
a
year
ago?
% Saying Better
(Dec., Year 2)
Clinton 45%
Bush II 41%
Bush I 37%
Reagan 36%
Obama 23%
Source:
Thomson
Reuters
and
The
University
of
Michigan
poll
*August
Year
3
data
available
for
previous
presidents;
December
Year
2
available
for
Obama
21

22. There is not an upward trend going into 2012
Would
you
say
that
you
(and
your
family
living
there)
are
be[er
off
or
worse
off
financially
than
you
were
a
year
ago?
60%
Financial
SituaKon
Last
Year
50%
%
Saying
BeTer
Last
Year
40%
30%
20%
Reagan
10%
Bush
I
Clinton
Bush
II
Obama
0%
1/1
3/1
5/1
7/1
9/1
11/1
1/2
3/2
5/2
7/2
9/2
11/2
1/3
3/3
5/3
7/3
9/3
11/3
1/4
3/4
5/4
7/4
9/4
11/4
Month/Year
in
term
Source:
Thomson
Reuters
and
The
University
of
Michigan
22

23. There is little optimism about potential economic improvement
A
year
from
now,
do
you
expect
the
financial
situaKon
in
your
household
to
be
be[er
than
it
is
today,
the
same
as
it
is
today,
or
worse
than
it
is
% Saying Better
(August, Year 3)
today?
Reagan 37%
Bush I 37%
Clinton 37%
Bush II 36%
Obama 25%
Source:
American
Research
Group
*Pre-­‐2011
quesKon
wording:
Now
looking
ahead-­‐-­‐do
you
think
that
a
year
from
now
you
(and
your
family
living
there)
will
be
be[er
off
financially,
or
worse
off,
or
just
about
the
same
as
now?
(Thomson
Reuters
and
The
University
of
Michigan)
23

24. There has been a down-tick in the most recent data
A
year
from
now,
do
you
expect
the
financial
situaKon
in
your
household
to
be
be[er
than
it
is
today,
the
same
as
it
is
today,
or
worse
than
it
is
today?
60%
Financial
SituaKon
Next
Year
50%
%
Saying
BeTer
Next
Year
40%
30%
20%
Reagan
Bush
I
10%
Clinton
Bush
II
Obama
0%
1/1
3/1
5/1
7/1
9/1
11/1
1/2
3/2
5/2
7/2
9/2
11/2
1/3
3/3
5/3
7/3
9/3
11/3
1/4
3/4
5/4
7/4
9/4
11/4
Month/Year
in
term
Source:
American
Research
Group
*Pre-­‐2011
quesKon
wording:
Now
looking
ahead-­‐-­‐do
you
think
that
a
year
from
now
you
(and
your
family
living
there)
will
be
be[er
off
financially,
or
worse
off,
or
just
about
the
same
as
now?
(Thomson
Reuters
and
The
University
of
Michigan)
24

25. Summary, September 2011
Metric Implications for
Incumbent
STRUCTURAL
Growth Rate in GDP
Unemployment Rate
Average Monthly Job Creation
OPINION
Presidential Approval
Party Favorability
Satisfaction with Direction Of The Country
Current State of Economy
Prospective Evaluation of Economy
Personal Financial Situation Last Year
Expected Financial Situation Next Year
TOTAL

26. Future Purple Perspectives will include…
Electoral calculations
Focus on Purple States
Party prospects in Congress
26