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Why It Makes Sense to
Tolerate Risk
Phillip Ragain
© 2014, The RAD Group, LLC. All Rights Reserved. Unauthorized reproduction or distribution, in part or in whole, is forbidden unless permitted in writing by The RAD Group, LLC.
Have you ever
done something
that, when you
look back on it,
was WAY too
risky?
The Groundwork
© 2014, The RAD Group, LLC. All Rights Reserved. Unauthorized reproduction or distribution, in part or in whole, is forbidden unless permitted in writing by The RAD Group, LLC.
The good news: 

You’re probably not simply reckless,
careless, naive or a “lost cause.”
You’re just human!
The Groundwork
© 2014, The RAD Group, LLC. All Rights Reserved. Unauthorized reproduction or distribution, in part or in whole, is forbidden unless permitted in writing by The RAD Group, LLC.
There are many things that affect
people’s Risk Tolerance.

‣ “Upbringing”
‣ Situational Influences
‣ Our Psychology
‣ etc…
The Groundwork
© 2014, The RAD Group, LLC. All Rights Reserved. Unauthorized reproduction or distribution, in part or in whole, is forbidden unless permitted in writing by The RAD Group, LLC.
The Groundwork
When people take risks, it is
because it makes sense to do so.
© 2014, The RAD Group, LLC. All Rights Reserved. Unauthorized reproduction or distribution, in part or in whole, is forbidden unless permitted in writing by The RAD Group, LLC.
The Groundwork
When people take risks, it is
because it makes sense to them to
do so.
© 2014, The RAD Group, LLC. All Rights Reserved. Unauthorized reproduction or distribution, in part or in whole, is forbidden unless permitted in writing by The RAD Group, LLC.
“Local Rationality”
What people do makes
sense given the context
they are in.
The Groundwork
CONTEXTCONTEXT
© 2014, The RAD Group, LLC. All Rights Reserved. Unauthorized reproduction or distribution, in part or in whole, is forbidden unless permitted in writing by The RAD Group, LLC.
The Groundwork
© 2014, The RAD Group, LLC. All Rights Reserved. Unauthorized reproduction or distribution, in part or in whole, is forbidden unless permitted in writing by The RAD Group, LLC.
The Groundwork
© 2014, The RAD Group, LLC. All Rights Reserved. Unauthorized reproduction or distribution, in part or in whole, is forbidden unless permitted in writing by The RAD Group, LLC.
CONTEXT?
Contexts can
be obscure.
The Groundwork
© 2014, The RAD Group, LLC. All Rights Reserved. Unauthorized reproduction or distribution, in part or in whole, is forbidden unless permitted in writing by The RAD Group, LLC.
Contexts can
be complex.
The Groundwork
© 2014, The RAD Group, LLC. All Rights Reserved. Unauthorized reproduction or distribution, in part or in whole, is forbidden unless permitted in writing by The RAD Group, LLC.
The Groundwork
“Salience”
Not everything in a
person’s context
carries the same
weight.
© 2014, The RAD Group, LLC. All Rights Reserved. Unauthorized reproduction or distribution, in part or in whole, is forbidden unless permitted in writing by The RAD Group, LLC.
The feeling of power -
without a correlated
feeling of responsibility to
others - elevates risk
tolerance.
A Position of Power
© 2014, The RAD Group, LLC. All Rights Reserved. Unauthorized reproduction or distribution, in part or in whole, is forbidden unless permitted in writing by The RAD Group, LLC.
Surprisingly Salient
© 2014, The RAD Group, LLC. All Rights Reserved. Unauthorized reproduction or distribution, in part or in whole, is forbidden unless permitted in writing by The RAD Group, LLC.
The urge to finish a
given task without
interruption distorts
our judgements.
The Unit Bias
Surprisingly Salient
© 2014, The RAD Group, LLC. All Rights Reserved. Unauthorized reproduction or distribution, in part or in whole, is forbidden unless permitted in writing by The RAD Group, LLC.
Obedience to an
authority figure can
override normal
judgement.
Authority Pressure
Surprisingly Salient
✓
✓ ✓
✓
✓ ✓
✓
✓ ✓
© 2014, The RAD Group, LLC. All Rights Reserved. Unauthorized reproduction or distribution, in part or in whole, is forbidden unless permitted in writing by The RAD Group, LLC.
Pressure to produce
can make risk less
salient…or even
invisible.
Production Pressure
Surprisingly Salient
© 2014, The RAD Group, LLC. All Rights Reserved. Unauthorized reproduction or distribution, in part or in whole, is forbidden unless permitted in writing by The RAD Group, LLC.
Working when your
body thinks it should
be sleeping increases
risk tolerance.
Sleepiness & Shift Work
Surprisingly Salient
Z
Z
Z
© 2014, The RAD Group, LLC. All Rights Reserved. Unauthorized reproduction or distribution, in part or in whole, is forbidden unless permitted in writing by The RAD Group, LLC.
A Solution
What can we do?
Educate People:
Recognizing these
forces reduces their
influence.
1
✓
✓ ✓
✓
✓ ✓
✓
✓ ✓
© 2014, The RAD Group, LLC. All Rights Reserved. Unauthorized reproduction or distribution, in part or in whole, is forbidden unless permitted in writing by The RAD Group, LLC.
A Solution
Surprisingly Salient
Forces
‣ A Position of Power
‣ The Unit Bias
‣ Authority Pressure
‣ Production Pressure
‣ Sleepiness & Shift Work
✓
✓ ✓
✓
✓ ✓
✓
✓ ✓
© 2014, The RAD Group, LLC. All Rights Reserved. Unauthorized reproduction or distribution, in part or in whole, is forbidden unless permitted in writing by The RAD Group, LLC.
A Solution
What can we do?
Have Candid Conversations:
Talk with people about the
risks that they take and why.
Try to understand their
contexts.
2
© 2014, The RAD Group, LLC. All Rights Reserved. Unauthorized reproduction or distribution, in part or in whole, is forbidden unless permitted in writing by The RAD Group, LLC.
A Solution
Tell Stories:
Increase the salience of
risk through “vicarious
experiences.”
3
What can we do?
Why It Makes Sense to
Tolerate Risk
Phillip Ragain
Resources for You
theradgroup.com/vpp-16
Access Slides
Ask Questions
Michael Allen
17th @ 11:30
18th @ 2:45
Mike Allen
17th @ 1:45 & 3:00
18th @ 10:00 & 1:15
Ron Ragain
17th @ 11:30 & 1:45
Phillip Ragain
18th @ 1:15 & 2:45

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Risk tolerance vpp16

  • 1. Why It Makes Sense to Tolerate Risk Phillip Ragain
  • 2. © 2014, The RAD Group, LLC. All Rights Reserved. Unauthorized reproduction or distribution, in part or in whole, is forbidden unless permitted in writing by The RAD Group, LLC. Have you ever done something that, when you look back on it, was WAY too risky? The Groundwork
  • 3. © 2014, The RAD Group, LLC. All Rights Reserved. Unauthorized reproduction or distribution, in part or in whole, is forbidden unless permitted in writing by The RAD Group, LLC. The good news: You’re probably not simply reckless, careless, naive or a “lost cause.” You’re just human! The Groundwork
  • 4. © 2014, The RAD Group, LLC. All Rights Reserved. Unauthorized reproduction or distribution, in part or in whole, is forbidden unless permitted in writing by The RAD Group, LLC. There are many things that affect people’s Risk Tolerance. ‣ “Upbringing” ‣ Situational Influences ‣ Our Psychology ‣ etc… The Groundwork
  • 5. © 2014, The RAD Group, LLC. All Rights Reserved. Unauthorized reproduction or distribution, in part or in whole, is forbidden unless permitted in writing by The RAD Group, LLC. The Groundwork When people take risks, it is because it makes sense to do so.
  • 6. © 2014, The RAD Group, LLC. All Rights Reserved. Unauthorized reproduction or distribution, in part or in whole, is forbidden unless permitted in writing by The RAD Group, LLC. The Groundwork When people take risks, it is because it makes sense to them to do so.
  • 7. © 2014, The RAD Group, LLC. All Rights Reserved. Unauthorized reproduction or distribution, in part or in whole, is forbidden unless permitted in writing by The RAD Group, LLC. “Local Rationality” What people do makes sense given the context they are in. The Groundwork CONTEXTCONTEXT
  • 8. © 2014, The RAD Group, LLC. All Rights Reserved. Unauthorized reproduction or distribution, in part or in whole, is forbidden unless permitted in writing by The RAD Group, LLC. The Groundwork
  • 9. © 2014, The RAD Group, LLC. All Rights Reserved. Unauthorized reproduction or distribution, in part or in whole, is forbidden unless permitted in writing by The RAD Group, LLC. The Groundwork
  • 10. © 2014, The RAD Group, LLC. All Rights Reserved. Unauthorized reproduction or distribution, in part or in whole, is forbidden unless permitted in writing by The RAD Group, LLC. CONTEXT? Contexts can be obscure. The Groundwork
  • 11. © 2014, The RAD Group, LLC. All Rights Reserved. Unauthorized reproduction or distribution, in part or in whole, is forbidden unless permitted in writing by The RAD Group, LLC. Contexts can be complex. The Groundwork
  • 12. © 2014, The RAD Group, LLC. All Rights Reserved. Unauthorized reproduction or distribution, in part or in whole, is forbidden unless permitted in writing by The RAD Group, LLC. The Groundwork “Salience” Not everything in a person’s context carries the same weight.
  • 13. © 2014, The RAD Group, LLC. All Rights Reserved. Unauthorized reproduction or distribution, in part or in whole, is forbidden unless permitted in writing by The RAD Group, LLC. The feeling of power - without a correlated feeling of responsibility to others - elevates risk tolerance. A Position of Power © 2014, The RAD Group, LLC. All Rights Reserved. Unauthorized reproduction or distribution, in part or in whole, is forbidden unless permitted in writing by The RAD Group, LLC. Surprisingly Salient
  • 14. © 2014, The RAD Group, LLC. All Rights Reserved. Unauthorized reproduction or distribution, in part or in whole, is forbidden unless permitted in writing by The RAD Group, LLC. The urge to finish a given task without interruption distorts our judgements. The Unit Bias Surprisingly Salient
  • 15. © 2014, The RAD Group, LLC. All Rights Reserved. Unauthorized reproduction or distribution, in part or in whole, is forbidden unless permitted in writing by The RAD Group, LLC. Obedience to an authority figure can override normal judgement. Authority Pressure Surprisingly Salient ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
  • 16. © 2014, The RAD Group, LLC. All Rights Reserved. Unauthorized reproduction or distribution, in part or in whole, is forbidden unless permitted in writing by The RAD Group, LLC. Pressure to produce can make risk less salient…or even invisible. Production Pressure Surprisingly Salient
  • 17. © 2014, The RAD Group, LLC. All Rights Reserved. Unauthorized reproduction or distribution, in part or in whole, is forbidden unless permitted in writing by The RAD Group, LLC. Working when your body thinks it should be sleeping increases risk tolerance. Sleepiness & Shift Work Surprisingly Salient Z Z Z
  • 18. © 2014, The RAD Group, LLC. All Rights Reserved. Unauthorized reproduction or distribution, in part or in whole, is forbidden unless permitted in writing by The RAD Group, LLC. A Solution What can we do? Educate People: Recognizing these forces reduces their influence. 1 ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
  • 19. © 2014, The RAD Group, LLC. All Rights Reserved. Unauthorized reproduction or distribution, in part or in whole, is forbidden unless permitted in writing by The RAD Group, LLC. A Solution Surprisingly Salient Forces ‣ A Position of Power ‣ The Unit Bias ‣ Authority Pressure ‣ Production Pressure ‣ Sleepiness & Shift Work ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
  • 20. © 2014, The RAD Group, LLC. All Rights Reserved. Unauthorized reproduction or distribution, in part or in whole, is forbidden unless permitted in writing by The RAD Group, LLC. A Solution What can we do? Have Candid Conversations: Talk with people about the risks that they take and why. Try to understand their contexts. 2
  • 21. © 2014, The RAD Group, LLC. All Rights Reserved. Unauthorized reproduction or distribution, in part or in whole, is forbidden unless permitted in writing by The RAD Group, LLC. A Solution Tell Stories: Increase the salience of risk through “vicarious experiences.” 3 What can we do?
  • 22. Why It Makes Sense to Tolerate Risk Phillip Ragain
  • 23. Resources for You theradgroup.com/vpp-16 Access Slides Ask Questions Michael Allen 17th @ 11:30 18th @ 2:45 Mike Allen 17th @ 1:45 & 3:00 18th @ 10:00 & 1:15 Ron Ragain 17th @ 11:30 & 1:45 Phillip Ragain 18th @ 1:15 & 2:45