CAN-Japan's proposal for Japanese INDC.

1. Proposal for a New Climate Target
CAN-Japan
Friday, March 20, 2015
Presented by Naoyuki Yamagishi
Leader, Climate and Energy Group
WWF Japan
Ver. 2
1

2. List and Status of Intended Nationally
Determined Contributions (INDC) = Post-
2020 Climate Targets
2
Updates are provided at CAN-Japan’s website (in Japanese)
http://www.can-japan.org/activities/1761

3. CAN-Japan Proposal (1)
Japanese GHG Emissions have to be reduced
by 30-35% below 1990 by 2025
by 40-50% below 1990 by 2030
(respectively, 31-36% and 41～51％ reduction below 2010)
• Renewables target
+ Feed-in Tariff Scheme / Electricity System Reform / Heat Policies
• Energy Efficiency Target
• Steady shift from dependence on fossil fuels (Stopping new coal-fired power
plants)
• Achieving both ambitious climate target and phasing out nuclear
3

4. CAN-Japan Proposal (2)
4
 Adaptation
• Incorporate an overall target and general direction of policies
from the National Adaptation Plan, which is currently under
discussion.
 Finance and Technology Support
• Present targets and commit to contributing to the establishment
of international innovative finance mechanisms and international
mechanism for loss and damage
 Contributing to emission reduction abroad
• In addition to domestic emission reduction efforts, commit to
contributing to emission reduction abroad. However, it has to be
clearly distinguished from domestic reduction and only those
emission reductions done through mechanisms and approaches
approved under the UN should be counted as contribution.

5. Three Perspectives
Globally Required Reduction
Equity Reduction Potentials
5

6. GLOBALLY REQUIRED REDUCTION
Perspective 1
6

7. Globally Required Reduction
in 2030
• By 2050, the global GHG emissions must be
reduced 40-70% below 2010.
• By 2030, the global GHG emissions must be
between 30-50Gt CO2eq.
Based on IPCC AR5 WG3
To achieve the 2 ºC goal
• Need to limit the emissions as close as possible to
30 Gt-CO2eq (39% reduction below 2010; 21%
reduction below 1990)
• Securing higher likelihood (>66%)
• Securing 1.5 ºC
7

8. EQUITY
Perspective 2
8

9. CAN’s view on Equity
Equity Principles agreed by CAN
Adequacy Responsibility Capability
Development Need
Adaptation
(and Loss and Damage) Need
There are a wide variety of views
9

10. Review of various effort sharing studies
Figure 6.28, Chapter 6 of IPCC AR5 WG III
10

11. A Variety of Views on Equity
Cited from the original paper for the Figure 6.28
• OECD1990 – 33-74% Reduction: Reduction rates for OECD1990 are 33-74% reduction
below 1990 for 2030 (37-75% reduction below 2010) and 27-42% below 1990 (27-69%
reduction below 2010 。
• Japan Australia and NZ – 30-58% Reduction: 日Japan, Australia and NZ as a group
need to reduce emissions by 30-58% below 1990 (39-61%) by 2030 and 27-42% below
1990 (33-47% below 2010) by 2025.
11Source: Höhne, Niklas et al. (2014) Regional GHG reduction targets based on effort sharing: a comparison of studies, Climate Policy.
14(1): 122-147, DOI: 10.1080/14693062.2014.849452

12. A Study based on Carbon Budget
12
Converging Per Capita Emissions
(CPE)
Common but Differentiated
Convergence (CDC)
To 1990 To 2005 To 2010 To 1990 To 2005 To 2010
2020 -22 ％ -27％ -21％ -27％ -31％ -26％
2030 -54％ -57％ -54％ -66％ -68％ -66％
2050 -95％ -95％ -95％ -95％ -95％ -95％
Source Kuramochi, Takeshi, Asuka, Jusen, Fekete, Hanna, Tamura, Kentaro and Höhne, Niklas (2014) Japan’s Medium- And
Long-Term GHG Mitigation Pathways Under The Carbon Budget Approach（IGES Working Paper No. 2014-02)
Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES) http://pub.iges.or.jp/modules/envirolib/view.php?docid=5431
• Roughly, Reduction of 55％～65% below 1990 is indicated for 2030.

13. Equity-based approach
13
Climate Equity Reference Calculator
2025 2030
Japan’s contribution in
the world
To 1990 (%) -170% -217%
Reduciton to 1990
(Mt CO2eq)
-2,103 -2,685
This tool is to calculate a country’s
contribution in the world (i.e. it
does not distinguish domestic
reduction and reduction abroad)
through direct reduction as well as
reduction through finance and
technology support.
Source Climate Equity Reference Calculator
http://www.gdrights.org/calculator/

14. REDUCTION POTENTIALS
Perspective 3
14

15. Reduction Potentials
Scenarios 2025 2030
Kiko Network
Japan Climate Vision 2050: An energy future
independent of nuclear power and fossil fuels [Scenario
projections]
- -66%
Greenpeace Japan
The advanced energy [r]evolution
- -46%
WWF Japan
Energy Scenario Proposal for Decarbonizing Japan
- -58%
CASA
40% Reduction with zero nuke is totally possible –
Results of CASA2030 Model
-29.8〜
-36.7%
-39.8〜
-42.7%
Reduction rates in CO2 from energy use in NGO Scenarios (compared to 1990)
15• Roughly, they indicate that 40-60% reduction below 1990 is possible.

16. CONSISTENCY WITH LONG-TERM GOALS
AND EMISSION REDUCTION ABROAD
Other points
16

17. CAN’s Long-term Goal
17
Climate Action Network calls for phasing out all fossil fuel
emissions and phasing in a 100% renewable energy
future with sustainable energy access for all, as early as
possible, but not later than 2050.）

18. Consistency with
80% Reduction by 2050
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Mt-CO2eq
Historical Emissions
3.8％ Reduction => 80% Reduction
23% Reduction in 2030
18
• 80％ Reduction by 2050 has been already agreed by the Cabinet in the past.
To keep the consistency with this target, 23% reduction below 1990 by 2030
is the minimum level and actual reduction rate should be much steeper.

19. Emission Reduction Abroad
19
Japanese INDC has to explicitly include commitment to
contributing to emission reduction abroad through finance
and technology support.
Two Conditions
• Clear distinction between domestic and overseas reduction
• Only acknowledge emission reduction done through
mechanisms and approaches approved under the UN.

20. SUMMARY
20

21. CAN-Japan Proposal (1)
Japanese GHG Emissions have to be reduced
by 30-35% below 1990 by 2025
by 40-50% below 1990 by 2030
(respectively, 31-36% and 41～51％ reduction below 2010)
• Renewables target
+ Feed-in Tariff Scheme / Electricity System Reform / Heat Policies
• Energy Efficiency Target
• Steady shift from dependence on fossil fuels (Stopping new coal-fired power
plants)
• Achieving both ambitious climate target and phasing out nuclear
21

22. CAN-Japan Proposal (2)
22
 Adaptation
• Incorporate an overall target and general direction of policies
from the National Adaptation Plan, which is currently under
discussion.
 Finance and Technology Support
• Present targets and commit to contributing to the establishment
of international innovative finance mechanisms and international
mechanism for loss and damage
 Contributing to emission reduction abroad
• In addition to domestic emission reduction efforts, commit to
contributing to emission reduction abroad. However, it has to be
clearly distinguished from domestic reduction and only those
emission reductions done through mechanisms and approaches
approved under the UN should be counted as contribution.