1. A Little REDD Model Reducing Emissions From Deforestation and Forest Degradation Richard G. Dudley [email_address]

9. Model Basics Amount of CO2 Stored in Forest Lands amount of CO2 being sequestered by the forest release of carbon stored in forest Forest Area deforestation forestation EXPECTED DEFORESTATION RATE mean amount CO2 stored per ha SATURATION AMOUNT TIME NEEDED TO REACH SATURATION

10. Baseline Scenario Policy Scenario - = Two Copies of the Model: a Policy Scenario and a Baseline Scenario

11. Value of Avoided Carbon Emissions Best option for determining value of carbon credits baseline net change in forest C policy net change in forest C Accumulated Policy Caused Forest C net C change due to policy differences value per ton of avoided emissions of carbon Accumulated Value of Policy Caused Forest C increasing extra carbon value decreasing extra carbon value mean value of extra forest stored carbon accumulating value of carbon due to policy differences

12. Carbon in Forest Products? Carbon in Forest Products product decomposition product length of life fraction of C releases captured in durable products C being stored in products release of C stored in forest

14. Tons of carbon per hectare Baseline vs Policy Scenario: Carbon in Forest Lands 250 200 150 100 50 0 Difference = avoided emissions Baseline: 3% deforestation Policy: Protect Forest Average 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 Year

15. Value of Avoided Emissions of CO2 Due to Policy Scenario This is a good indicator of the level of payments that might be expected under REDD Probably a discounted value of this flow 2,000 $ 80 $/Year 1,500 $ 60 $/Year 1,000 $ 40 $/Year 500 $ 20 $/Year 0 $ 0 $/Year 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 Year value of policy caused carbon in forest $/hectare accumulating value of forest carbon $/year per hectare

16. Value of Avoided Emissions of CO2 Due to Policy Scenario For example: Perhaps a 25 year contract with an ultimate total amount paid of perhaps $1,100 per hectare With a declining payment schedule Payment schedule 2,000 $ 80 $/Year 1,500 $ 60 $/Year 1,000 $ 40 $/Year 500 $ 20 $/Year 0 $ 0 $/Year 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 Year value of policy caused carbon in forest $/hectare accumulating carbon value $/year per hectare

19. Baseline vs Policy Scenario: Carbon in Forest Lands 200 New Policy Difference = avoided emissions Baseline: 3% deforestation Policy: Sustainable Forest Management Original Policy: Protect Forest 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 Year 250 200 150 100 50 0 tons

20. Policy: Sustainable Forest Management accumulating carbon value $/year per hectare value of policy caused carbon in forest $/hectare

21. Policy: Sustainable Forest Management Probable 25 Year payment schedule Compare to payments under full forest protection accumulating carbon value $/year per hectare value of policy caused carbon in forest $/hectare

22. Policy: Sustainable Forest management Change in Stored Carbon: Forest + Products Additional avoided emissions due to policy caused differences in carbon stored in forest products Avoided emissions due to sustainable forest management compared to baseline of 3% deforestation 1. This difference is also dependent on what wood from deforested lands was used for Carbon in products is important, BUT 2. Who would receive payments for carbon credits derived from wood products? 250 200 150 100 50 0 tons

23. Value of Avoided Emissions for Three Possible Policies compared to 3% deforestation Year $/ Year Protect forest Forest management Plantation management 80 40 0 -40 -80 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

25. Questions? Comments? Suggestions?