Risk-based Planning and Scheduling, a short course presentation originally prepared for the Bachelor of Science Construction Project Management class, School of Construction, Southern Alberta Institute of Technology, Calgary, Alberta on October 11, 2016. About the Author/Speaker: Rufran C. Frago, P. Eng., PMP®, CCP, PMI-RMP®, Author Senior Planning Specialist, Suncor Energy Inc. President/Managing Director, RBM&S Inc. Owner Administrator, E-Touch Up Wide-range of expertise & specialization in the Manufacturing, Petrochemical, Oleo-chemicals, Oil and Gas, Education & Training Industries for more than 40 years in various roles and capacities. Exposure: Asia, Africa, Middle East and North America. His expertise includes: Primavera Database Administration, Programs and Project Planning & Scheduling, Qualitative/Quantitative Risk Management, Problem Solving, Project Management, Cost Engineering, Project Control, Construction Management/Coordination, Project Review & Implementation Audit, Estimating, Engineering & Design, Fab/Mod Management, Preventive & Predictive Reliability-Based Maintenance, Operation, Material Selection, Warehousing, EH&S, and Training.

1. Introduction to Risk-based Project Planning and Scheduling
2016
Welcome to Project Planning and Scheduling
• Risk-based approach to planning and scheduling
• Schedule Critical Path
• Integrated planning and scheduling
• Risks what are you?
• Mega-Projects Schedule Integration and Management
RUFRAN C. FRAGO, P.Eng, PMP®, CCP, PMI-RMP® Author
Senior Planning Specialist – Suncor Energy Inc.
President/Managing Director-Risk-based Management and Services Inc.
1

2. Introduction to Risk-based Project Planning and Scheduling
2016
About the Speaker
Rufran C. Frago, P. Eng., PMP®, CCP, PMI-RMP®, Author
Senior Planning Specialist, Suncor Energy Inc.
President/Managing Director, RBM&S Inc.
Owner Administrator, E-Touch Up
Wide-range of expertise & specialization in the
Manufacturing, Petrochemical, Oleo-chemicals, Oil and
Gas, Education & Training Industries for more than 40
years in various roles and capacities. Exposure: Asia,
Africa, Middle East and North America.
His expertise includes: Primavera Database
Administration, Programs and Project Planning &
Scheduling, Qualitative/Quantitative Risk Management,
Problem Solving, Project Management, Cost
Engineering, Project Control, Construction
Management/Coordination, Project Review &
Implementation Audit, Estimating, Engineering &
Design, Fab/Mod Management, Preventive & Predictive
Reliability-Based Maintenance, Operation, Material
Selection, Warehousing, EH&S, and Training.
https://www.e-touchup.com
https://www.facebook.com/ETouchUp/
https://www.linkedin.com/groups/8437684
http://www.facebook.com/RiskBasedManagement
2

3. Introduction to Risk-based Project Planning and Scheduling
2016
Safety Moment – Arrive Alive!(1)
• 25% of accidents result from excessive speed
• 70% of accidents occur within 25 miles from home
3

4. Introduction to Risk-based Project Planning and Scheduling
2016
This course includes:
• Project Overview
• Planning and Scheduling
• Project Planning
• Developing the Schedule
• Time Management and Control
• Summary
4

5. Introduction to Risk-based Project Planning and Scheduling
2016
• What is a Project
• Fundamental attributes of Planning and Scheduling
• Inputs, processes and outputs of Planning
• Inputs, processes and outputs of Scheduling
• Inputs, processes and outputs of the Schedule
Management and Control
• Properties of a Schedule Critical Path
• Mega-Projects Schedule Management and Integration
•
What you will learn
5

6. Introduction to Risk-based Project Planning and Scheduling
2016
Remember this:
A Project is a
temporary endeavor
to create a unique
product, service or
result.
Ask yourself, “What is a project?”
6

7. Introduction to Risk-based Project Planning and Scheduling
2016
Project Phases or Project Life Cycle
7

8. Introduction to Risk-based Project Planning and Scheduling
2016
Repeating Processes in the Project Life Cycle
Monitoring &
Controlling
Initiating Closing
Planning
Executing
Processes are
not Project Phases!
8

9. Introduction to Risk-based Project Planning and Scheduling
2016
Project Phases or Project Life Cycle
Starting project
Organizing &
preparing
Carryout
project work
Closing
project
CostandStaffingLevel
Time
9

10. Introduction to Risk-based Project Planning and Scheduling
2016
Risk-based
Planning
10

11. Introduction to Risk-based Project Planning and Scheduling
2016
Risk-based Planning and Alice in Wonderland (3)
“Excuse me, would you tell me, please,
which way I ought to go from here?“
"That depends a good deal on where
you want to get to," said the Cat.
"I don’t much care where," said Alice.
"Then it doesn’t matter which way you
go," said the Cat.
11

12. Introduction to Risk-based Project Planning and Scheduling
2016
Risk-based Planning (1)
Risk-based planning is the process of identifying the
goals or objectives to be achieved, formulating
strategies to achieve them, arranging or creating the
means required with proper consideration of their
associated risks.
The risk-based plan is an input to the risk-based
schedule.
12

13. Introduction to Risk-based Project Planning and Scheduling
2016
Risk-based Planning (1)
Monitoring &
Controlling
Planning
Executing
Closing
Initiating
• Project Charter
• Preliminary Project
Scope Statement
Input
• PEP
• Resources
• Calendars
• Make or buy
• Source selection
• Documents
• Risk-based schedule
• Contracts, etc.
Output
Click each element for the interactions.
13

14. Introduction to Risk-based Project Planning and Scheduling
2016
Project Execution Plan = Mother of all Plans (1)
PEP
Scope
Requirements
Definition
WBS
Risk –based
Management
Risk-based
Identification
Qualitative
Analysis
Quantitative
Analysis
Response
Cost
Estimate
Budget
Resources
Procurement
Communications
Quality
Stakeholder
Schedule Basis
Activity
Sequencing
Loading
Duration
14

15. Introduction to Risk-based Project Planning and Scheduling
2016
The 4C’s of Planning (1) (4)
Clarify Objectives
Codify Requirements
Contingencies identified
Commits plan on paper
15

16. Introduction to Risk-based Project Planning and Scheduling
2016
Basis of Schedule (BOS) (1)
• The Basis of Schedule describes the methodology,
assumptions, templates and tools to be used in the
development of the Project Schedule
• The primary goal is to provide a sound schedule,
aligned to the Baseline Estimate and meeting the
requirements of each SPIM Gate, especially Gate-3.
• Can be considered a Schedule plan and one of the
outputs of the project’s planning process. It is an input
to schedule development.
16

17. Introduction to Risk-based Project Planning and Scheduling
2016
Risk-based
Scheduling
17

18. Introduction to Risk-based Project Planning and Scheduling
2016
Risk-based Scheduling (1)(2)
Scheduling is the assignment of desired start and
finish times to each activity inside the overall
timeline benchmarked to complete the project.
It involves the process of converting a risk-based
plan into a risk-based schedule. It is the collection
of activities needed to implement a plan
A risk-based schedule is not possible without
pulling together a risk-based plan.
18

19. Introduction to Risk-based Project Planning and Scheduling
2016
Planning and Scheduling Chart (1)
Planning and Scheduling
Project Planning Schedule
Development
Schedule Management
and Control
Plan to schedule, schedule to plan (4)
19

20. Introduction to Risk-based Project Planning and Scheduling
2016
Integrated Planning and Scheduling (1) (4) (7)
Source: Frago, R. (2016).Integrated schedule, a must have in program management
20

21. Introduction to Risk-based Project Planning and Scheduling
2016
Planning & Scheduling Made for Each Other (1) (4)
Source: Frago, R. (2016). Plan and Schedule: Planner and Scheduler: What is your story?
21

22. Introduction to Risk-based Project Planning and Scheduling
2016
CRITICAL
PATH
METHOD
Schedule Critical Path
22

23. Introduction to Risk-based Project Planning and Scheduling
2016
Schedule Critical Path (1)(3)(4)
The Longest! The Shortest! It depends!
23

24. Introduction to Risk-based Project Planning and Scheduling
2016
Schedule Critical Path (1)(3)(4)
This queue is an visual example of critical path!
24

25. Introduction to Risk-based Project Planning and Scheduling
2016
Relative Schedule Critical Path (1)(3)(4)
The Longest! The Shortest! It depends!
25

26. Introduction to Risk-based Project Planning and Scheduling
2016
Schedule Management and Control (1)(4)
Part of the project’s Integrated Change Control process.
Schedule control is concerned with:
• status of the schedule and schedule forecast
• root cause of influencing factors that create changes
• schedule risks
• what has changed
• managing changes as they occur
• achievability
• predictability
26

27. Introduction to Risk-based Project Planning and Scheduling
2016
27

28. Introduction to Risk-based Project Planning and Scheduling
2016
Schedule Risk is defined as an uncertain event or
condition that, if it occurs, has a positive or a negative
effect on the project’s schedule.
Similarly, Project Risk* is defined as “an uncertain event
or condition that, if it occurs, has a positive or a negative
effect on at least one project objective, such as time,
cost, scope, quality, etc.”
Schedule Risk (1) (4) (5)
28

29. Introduction to Risk-based Project Planning and Scheduling
2016
There are risks in all you do, be it in bed or on the road.
Opportunity or threat to you, control them if you could.
To recognize them is a must, before one can do a thing.
It is folly just to trust, with no idea what they'll bring.
Of course we need a risk-based plan, to help us make the move.
It help us track the work we've done, and keep us in the groove.
Risk is a threat to objective, when it keeps you from your goals.
Opportunity when it brings you, Successful endeavors.
RISK… What are you?, a Manager’s Poem (1)(4)(6)
29

30. Introduction to Risk-based Project Planning and Scheduling
2016
Schedule Risks (1) (4) (6)
For risk in fact is double-faced,
with smile and frown on each.
From where you stand,
do appreciate,
which one to you is which?
Risk is in the future,
not in the present or the past.
An event that still to occur,
whether it's good or bad.
Source: Frago, R. (2015). Plan and Schedule: Planner and Scheduler: What is your story?

31. Introduction to Risk-based Project Planning and Scheduling
2016
Risk Cycle (1) (4)
31

32. Introduction to Risk-based Project Planning and Scheduling
2016
MEGA-PROJECT
SCHEDULE
INTEGRATION AND
MANAGEMENT
Source: Frago, R. (2013). Mega-Project Schedule Integration and Management (RCF Method-1)
32

33. Introduction to Risk-based Project Planning and Scheduling
2016
Example of Mega Projects (AB)
33

34. Introduction to Risk-based Project Planning and Scheduling
2016
1) Full integration using hard linking between areas
daunting.
2) Calculation of CP needs all the linked schedules to be
opened before F9 (P6 calculation). The schedule is just
too large to control effectively.
3) Everyone knows that without those IPL, a fast-accurate
CP identification is not available.
4) A KIM Excel table outside of Primavera is commonly
used to manage the overall project portfolio. It is used as
a tool to consolidate date information.
5) Using more than one application to manage the overall
schedule. Project can end up using two versions of the
truth.
PROBLEMS TO TACKLE (8)
Source: Frago, R. (2013). Mega-Project Schedule Integration and Management (RCF Method-1)
34

35. Introduction to Risk-based Project Planning and Scheduling
2016
OBJECTIVES
To come up with a workable alternative to the most
common KIM Schedule Management method of using
a flat file from a separate application.
To come up with a method that preserve the Critical
Path calculation and identification.
To propose a method that does not require opening
the whole project portfolio at the same time to do a
one time F9 (calculate)
To use of a singular and common production
scheduling database
35

36. Introduction to Risk-based Project Planning and Scheduling
2016
OBJECTIVES… (continuation)
To simplify the management of the Overall schedule
though the use of a KIM Schedule without losing that
essential inter-project relationships nor limited by
the Project Portfolio’s sheer size
To propose a workable method that will support
accurate, quick date analysis and timely decision
making.
To do away the time-consuming collection of data by
offering a common work environment and promoting
“what you see is what you get” information quality
Divide the schedule to manageable pieces and
integrate.
36

37. Introduction to Risk-based Project Planning and Scheduling
2016
SEPARATE EPS (Enterprise Project Structure)(8)
37

38. Introduction to Risk-based Project Planning and Scheduling
2016
KIM SCHEDULE IN A SEPARATE EPS NODE (8)
38

39. Introduction to Risk-based Project Planning and Scheduling
2016
BL DEPENDS ON MATURITY & INTEGRATION (10)
Source: Frago, R. (2015). Risk-based Management: Data Maturity, Integration, Risk and Execution
Poor Project Integration like a Tower
with Loose or Missing Fasteners
39

40. Introduction to Risk-based Project Planning and Scheduling
2016
BASELINE SCHEDULE & CONTROL SCHEDULE (9)
Source: Frago, R. (2015). Schedule Baseline Dilemma Part 1
40

41. Introduction to Risk-based Project Planning and Scheduling
2016
KNOWLEDGE CHECK
1) True or False? You can only use the Plan – Do – Check – Act cycle at the
beginning of a project.
2) Fill in the Blanks. The _______of one Project Management Process Group
often serves as the _______ of another.
3) True or False? Running a plant is a project.
4) True or False? House construction is a project.
5) True or False? Moving to another country is a project.
6) True or False? CPM is an acronym for Critical Path Model
7) True or False? Risk is a future event.
8) True or False? Business risk has two face.
9) Threats and Opportunities embodies __________.
10) Plan to _________, schedule to _________ supports the husband and wife
syllogism of planning and scheduling.
41

42. Introduction to Risk-based Project Planning and Scheduling
2016
BIBLIOGRAPHY
1) Frago, R. (2015).Risk-based Management in the World of Threats and
Opportunities: A Project Controls Perspective. ISBN 978-0-9947608-0-7 (Canada)
2) AACE, 2013.AACE 14R-90 Responsibility and Required Skilled for Project Planning,
2013.
3) Frago, R. (2016).Schedule Critical Path.LinkedIn Pulse
4) Frago, R. (2016).Schedule to Plan, Plan to Schedule.Draft Manuscript.ISBN 978-0-
9947608-2-1 (Canada)
5) PMBOK-3rd Edition
6) Frago, R. (2015).Risks… what are you?.Wordpress.com
7) Frago, R. (2016).Integrated schedule, a must have in program management
8) Frago, R. (2013). Mega-Project Schedule Integration and Management (RCF
Method-1)
9) Frago, R. (2015). Schedule Baseline Dilemma Part 1
10) Frago, R. (2015). Risk-based Management: Data Maturity, Integration, Risk
and Execution
42

43. Introduction to Risk-based Project Planning and Scheduling
2016
43
Thank You
101116 - This presentation was initially prepared for the Bachelor of
Science Construction Project Management class, School of
Construction at Southern Alberta Institute of Technology, Calgary,
Alberta.