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Adopting the Quadratic Mean
Process to Quantify the
Qualitative Risk Analysis

Ricardo Viana Vargas
United Nations Office for Project Services (UNOPS)
“PMI” is a registered trade and service mark of the Project Management Institute, Inc.
©2013 Permission is granted to PMI for PMI® Marketplace use only.
Qualitative and Quantitative Methods

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2
Qualitative and Quantitative Methods
!
Advantages!

Quantitative!Methods!
• Facilitates)the)cost)benefit)
analysis)
• Gives)a)more)accurate)value)
of)the)risk)
• More)valuable)
)
Disadvantages! • Results)of)the)method)may)
not)be)precise)
• Numbers)can)give)a)false)
perception)of)precision)
• More)expensive)and)time)
consuming)

•
•

•
•

•
•

Qualitative!methods!
Relatively)simple)to)be)
implemented)
Easily)determine)risk)
categories)with)greater)impact)
in)the)project)
Visually)impactful)
A)lack)of)understanding)of)the)
parameters)used)in)the)scale)
can)lead)to)different)
interpretations)
Results)can)be)biased))
Less)valuable)

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3
The Essence of the Qualitative Analysis

Probability
and Impact

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4
Probability Scale



Level!
Very!
High!
High!
Medium!
Low!
Very!
Low!

Score!
Description!
5! It!is!expected!that!the!event!will!
occur.!If!it!does!not!occurs!it!will!be!
a!surprise.!
4! The!event!has!a!great!chance!of!
occurring.!
3! The!event!can!occur.!
2! It!will!be!a!surprise!if!the!event!
occurs.!
1! Very!remote!chance!of!the!event!to!
happen.!Practically!impossible.!

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5
5 Dimensions of Impact

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6
Impact on Time and Deadlines
•  Assessment of the level of impact on the
conclusion of the project

Example

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7
Impact on Costs
•  Assessment of the level of impact on the final
cost of the project

Example

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8
Impact on Quality
•  Assessment of the level of impact on the quality
required for the project

Example

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9
Impact on Safety and Security
•  This impact group could include or not aspects related
to environment, physical security of the work in the
project, data security (IT), and reputation, among others

Example

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10
Other Impacts
•  Optional group that aims to include any other
specific impact of a risk that was not covered in
the previous groups

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11
Proximity: The 6th Impact Dimension

Example

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12
Calculating the Expected Value
•  Risk measurement used to assess and prioritize risk
events

•  Probability: 1 to 5
•  Impact: 1 to 5 based on the formula

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13
Why Quadratic Mean (Root Mean Square)
and not Arithmetic Mean
•  Based on the assumption that different levels of impact
add additional exposure to the project and this variance
should be considered as a risk factor to the project.

–  where the variance is a measure of how far a set of
numbers is spread out

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14
Example of Impact Calculation

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15
Example of Project Expected Value
Calculation

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16
Conclusions
•  The qualitative risk method is always a simplified model
if compared with the quantitative methods.
•  The process should be tailored to include different kinds
of impacts and scales in order to produce a reliable
quantitative result.
•  This result allows opportunities and threats to be
compared in order to determine the total risk exposure.
–  The concept that an opportunity can cancel a threat
of the same level is not possible with the traditional
qualitative risk management approach.
Get the white paper at http://rvarg.as/quad

17
Contact Information
Ricardo Viana Vargas
ricardov@unops.org / ricardo@ricardo-vargas.com
www.unops.org
Twitter: @rvvargas
Get the white paper at http://rvarg.as/quad

Get the white paper at http://rvarg.as/quad

18

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Adopting the Quadratic Mean Process to Quantify the Qualitative Risk Analysis – Slides

  • 1. Adopting the Quadratic Mean Process to Quantify the Qualitative Risk Analysis Ricardo Viana Vargas United Nations Office for Project Services (UNOPS) “PMI” is a registered trade and service mark of the Project Management Institute, Inc. ©2013 Permission is granted to PMI for PMI® Marketplace use only.
  • 2. Qualitative and Quantitative Methods Get the white paper at http://rvarg.as/quad 2
  • 3. Qualitative and Quantitative Methods ! Advantages! Quantitative!Methods! • Facilitates)the)cost)benefit) analysis) • Gives)a)more)accurate)value) of)the)risk) • More)valuable) ) Disadvantages! • Results)of)the)method)may) not)be)precise) • Numbers)can)give)a)false) perception)of)precision) • More)expensive)and)time) consuming) • • • • • • Qualitative!methods! Relatively)simple)to)be) implemented) Easily)determine)risk) categories)with)greater)impact) in)the)project) Visually)impactful) A)lack)of)understanding)of)the) parameters)used)in)the)scale) can)lead)to)different) interpretations) Results)can)be)biased)) Less)valuable) Get the white paper at http://rvarg.as/quad 3
  • 4. The Essence of the Qualitative Analysis Probability and Impact Get the white paper at http://rvarg.as/quad 4
  • 5. Probability Scale  Level! Very! High! High! Medium! Low! Very! Low! Score! Description! 5! It!is!expected!that!the!event!will! occur.!If!it!does!not!occurs!it!will!be! a!surprise.! 4! The!event!has!a!great!chance!of! occurring.! 3! The!event!can!occur.! 2! It!will!be!a!surprise!if!the!event! occurs.! 1! Very!remote!chance!of!the!event!to! happen.!Practically!impossible.! Get the white paper at http://rvarg.as/quad 5
  • 6. 5 Dimensions of Impact Get the white paper at http://rvarg.as/quad 6
  • 7. Impact on Time and Deadlines •  Assessment of the level of impact on the conclusion of the project Example Get the white paper at http://rvarg.as/quad 7
  • 8. Impact on Costs •  Assessment of the level of impact on the final cost of the project Example Get the white paper at http://rvarg.as/quad 8
  • 9. Impact on Quality •  Assessment of the level of impact on the quality required for the project Example Get the white paper at http://rvarg.as/quad 9
  • 10. Impact on Safety and Security •  This impact group could include or not aspects related to environment, physical security of the work in the project, data security (IT), and reputation, among others Example Get the white paper at http://rvarg.as/quad 10
  • 11. Other Impacts •  Optional group that aims to include any other specific impact of a risk that was not covered in the previous groups Get the white paper at http://rvarg.as/quad 11
  • 12. Proximity: The 6th Impact Dimension Example Get the white paper at http://rvarg.as/quad 12
  • 13. Calculating the Expected Value •  Risk measurement used to assess and prioritize risk events •  Probability: 1 to 5 •  Impact: 1 to 5 based on the formula Get the white paper at http://rvarg.as/quad 13
  • 14. Why Quadratic Mean (Root Mean Square) and not Arithmetic Mean •  Based on the assumption that different levels of impact add additional exposure to the project and this variance should be considered as a risk factor to the project. –  where the variance is a measure of how far a set of numbers is spread out Get the white paper at http://rvarg.as/quad 14
  • 15. Example of Impact Calculation Get the white paper at http://rvarg.as/quad 15
  • 16. Example of Project Expected Value Calculation Get the white paper at http://rvarg.as/quad 16
  • 17. Conclusions •  The qualitative risk method is always a simplified model if compared with the quantitative methods. •  The process should be tailored to include different kinds of impacts and scales in order to produce a reliable quantitative result. •  This result allows opportunities and threats to be compared in order to determine the total risk exposure. –  The concept that an opportunity can cancel a threat of the same level is not possible with the traditional qualitative risk management approach. Get the white paper at http://rvarg.as/quad 17
  • 18. Contact Information Ricardo Viana Vargas ricardov@unops.org / ricardo@ricardo-vargas.com www.unops.org Twitter: @rvvargas Get the white paper at http://rvarg.as/quad Get the white paper at http://rvarg.as/quad 18